Tanker Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Tanker Market Outlook 4 th Maritime Indonesia Simon Chattrabhuti, Director, Head of Tanker Market Analysis Jakarta, 22 March 212

2 Disclaimer THIS PRESENTATION IS CONFIDENTIAL AND IS SOLELY FOR THE USE OF THE RECIPIENT. NEITHER THE WHOLE NOR ANY PART OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PRESENTATION MAY BE DISCLOSED TO, OR USED OR RELIED UPON BY, ANY OTHER PERSON OR USED FOR ANY OTHER PURPOSE WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF H. CLARKSON & CO. LTD (CLARKSONS). THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PRESENTATION, AND UPON WHICH THE PRESENTATION IS BASED, HAS BEEN DERIVED FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION. NONE OF THE INFORMATION ON WHICH THE PRESENTATION IS BASED HAS BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY ANY MEMBER OF CLARKSONS NOR ANY OF ITS CONNECTED PERSONS. ACCORDINGLY, NO MEMBER OF CLARKSONS NOR ANY OF ITS CONNECTED PERSONS MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PRESENTATION, OR ON WHICH THE PRESENTATION IS BASED, OR THAT THIS INFORMATION REMAINS UNCHANGED AFTER THE ISSUE OF THE PRESENTATION. THE PRESENTATION IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS CARRYING THE ENDORSEMENT OF CLARKSONS OR ANY OF ITS CONNECTED PERSONS. CONSEQUENTLY, NEITHER CLARKSONS NOR ANY OF ITS CONNECTED PERSONS CAN BE HELD LIABLE TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM INFORMATION DERIVED FROM THE PRESENTATION IS MADE AVAILABLE FOR THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN IT. THE PRESENTATION IS NOT INTENDED TO RECOMMEND ANY STRATEGIC DECISION BY THE COMPANY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A RECOMMENDATION SUPPORTING ANY OF THE OPTIONS DISCUSSED HEREIN BY ANY MEMBER OF CLARKSONS OR ANY OF ITS CONNECTED PERSONS TO ANY RECIPIENT OF THE INFORMATION. EACH PERSON TO WHOM THE INFORMATION IS MADE AVAILABLE MUST MAKE THEIR OWN INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE OPTIONS AVAILABLE. NOTHING IN THE PRESENTATION IS, OR SHOULD BE RELIED UPON AS, A PROMISE OR REPRESENTATION AS TO THE FUTURE. IN THIS NOTICE, CONNECTED PERSONS MEANS, IN RELATION TO CLARKSONS, ITS HOLDING COMPANY, THE SHAREHOLDERS, SUBSIDIARIES AND SUBSIDIARY UNDERTAKINGS OF ITS HOLDING COMPANY AND THE RESPECTIVE DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES AND AGENTS OF EACH OF THEM H. CLARKSON & CO. LTD, ST. MAGNUS HOUSE, 3 LOWER THAMES STREET, LONDON, EC3R 6HE TELEPHONE +44 ()

3 jan- jan-1 jan-2 jan-3 jan-4 jan-5 jan-6 jan-7 jan-8 jan-9 jan-1 jan-11 jan-12 jan- jan-1 jan-2 jan-3 jan-4 jan-5 jan-6 jan-7 jan-8 jan-9 jan-1 jan-11 jan-12 jan- jan-1 jan-2 jan-3 jan-4 jan-5 jan-6 jan-7 jan-8 jan-9 jan-1 jan-11 jan-12 $/day VLCC Tanker Spot & TC Earnings Aframax MR 1yr TC 3yr TC TCE 1yr TC 3yr TC TCE 1yr TC 3yr TC TCE Data Source: Clarksons 22 March 212

4 Now Now Million dwt Million dwt Crude & Product Tanker Fleet Development Crude Tanker* Product Tanker 35 VLCC Suemax Aframax 12 LR2 Panamax/LR1 MR Handy 3 48% 1 86% % % * Aframax excludes coated vessels (LR2) Data source: Clarksons 22 March 212

5 No of vessels Tanker Fleet Age Profile Aframax Suezmax VLCC Crude Tanker Handy MR 4-54 Panamax/LR LR Product Tanker Note: Aframax excludes vessels with coated tanks Data source: Clarksons 22 March 212

6 billion tonnes million tonnes Growing Seaborne Oil Trade Seaborne Trade Growth 3. Crude Oil Products 5 Volume Increase 94% % Growth 1% % 8% % 6% % % 2%. Crude Oil Products Liq Gas Coal % Data Source: Clarksons 22 March 212

7 Per capita oil cons (litre) Million ppl Oil Consumption per Capita per capita oil cons World oil cons per capita OECD oil cons per capita population OECD=5.4 x China OECD=13.5 x India World Av=1.8 x China World Av=4.6 x India India Indonesia China Brazil Mexico OECD Europe Japan S.Korea Canada USA Data source: EIA/US Census Bureau 22 March 212

8 Billion people Million people Growing World Population Impact on Energy, Food & Transportation OECD CHINA INDIA OTHER ASIA AFRICA R.O.W 1.3 billion Population Dynamics Population % Growth 25 2% 19% 18% 2 16% 14% % % 7% 1% 1% 8% 6% % 4% 2% % Data source: US Census Bureau 22 March 212

9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Million bpd Global Oil Demand / Supply Balances Demand Supply* Data source: IEA. *Supply for 212 based on IEA reports of non-opec supply, OPEC NGLs and latest reported level of OPEC crude supply 22 March 212

10 Oil Demand Growth in 212 North America Europe FSU China India Japan Other Asia and Oceania Latin America Middle East Africa Thousand barrels per day Updated to March 212 Data source: EIA March 212

11 Million bpd Thousand bpd U.S. Refinery Developments US Refinery Throughput by Region 2,7 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,5,5,5,5,5,5 7,5 7, 7,2 7,6 7,5 3,3 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,4 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,1 1, PADD 5 (West Coast) PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) PADD 2 (Midwest) PADD 1 (East Coast) U.S. Refinery Expansions & Closures Expansion (US Gulf and inland) Planned Further Closure (East Coast) Closure (East Coast)* Data source: EIA/Clarksons. *Includes U.S. Virgin Is. 22 March 212

12 mbpd kbpd European Refinery Capacity Developments 16 EU Refinery Capacity, Throughput and Oil Demand Capacity Throughput Demand -1 European Refinery Closures Temporary at Present Permanent Data source: BP Stats/Clarksons 22 March 212

13 Sulphur Content of Bunker Fuel (%) MARPOL Annex VI Reduction in SOx Emissions in ECAs 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1, 1/7/1 1/1/15 Data source: IMO 22 March 212

14 mbpd mbpd mbpd Refinery Throughputs and Changes in Demand China India Middle East 1 9 Refinery Throughputs Demand -.5mbpd 4,5 4, Refinery Throughputs Demand.6mbpd 9 8 Refinery Throughputs Demand -1.3mbpd ,5 3, 2,5 2, , , 2 1,5 1, *refinery capacity rather than refinery throughput Data source: BP Stats 22 March 212

15 mbpd mbpd mbpd Refinery Throughputs and Changes in Demand Latin America Indonesia Africa 7 6 Refinery Throughputs Demand -1.5mbpd 1,4 1,2 Refinery Capacity* Demand -.15mbpd 3,5 3, Refinery Throughputs Demand -.8mbpd 5 1, 2,5 4,8 2, 3,6 1,5 2,4 1, 1,2,5,, Data source: BP Stats *refinery capacity rather than refinery throughput 22 March 212

16 Million bpd Key Refinery Capacity Expansion Projects , 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Russia Brazil U.S. Pakistan Bahrain U.A.E. Saudi Arabia India China,5, Data source: Clarksons. Based on currently known projects and completion dates. Countries with expansion projects totalling 1, bpd by 214 are shown. 22 March 212

17 Thank You 22 March 212