1 - Inventory regime changes: An application of Hamilton s state space model

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1 GLOBAL INSIGHT S WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CONFERENCE Washington D.C., October Inventory regime changes: An application of Hamilton s state space model 2 Steel Demand Trends: To focus on main drivers of steel consumption and trade Alain Richemond Armand Sadler

2 1 - Inventory regime changes: An application of Hamilton s state space model* *J.D. HAMILTON. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, Vol.57, No 2, pp , JAMES D. HAMILTON, Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1994.

3 Specific consumption and stock movements Specific consumption (SP)= ASU/SWIP SWIP = Steel weighted industrial production index SP is moving smoothly in a given direction. Erratic movements around the trend reflect stock changes as technical coefficients do not make jumps Specific consumption EU15 SP above trend = build up of stocks SP below trend = destocking Index 1986 Q1= DF test stat. including intercept and trend = Q1-86 Q1-87 Q1-88 Q1-89 Q1-9 Q1-91 Q1-92 Q1-93 Q1-94 Q1-95 Q1-96 Q1-97 Quarters Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1- Q1-1 Q1-2 Q1-3 Q1-4 Q1-5 Q1-6 Based on Global Insight Industrial Production Growth by major steel consuming sectors

4 SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK EU15 ASU and RSU Total Finished steel products 45 ASU and RSU finished steel EU Million tons Huge destocking Apparent Steel Consumption Real Steel Consumption 2 15 Q1-86 Q1-87 Q1-88 Q1-89 Q1-9 Q1-91 Q1-92 Q1-93 Q1-94 Q1-95 Q1-96 Q1-97 Q1-98 Q1-99 Q1- Q1-1 Q1-2 Q1-3 Q1-4 Q1-5 Q1-6 Quarters Q2-26 Q4-26

5 Stock changes and regimes Stock changes EU15 5 Total finished steel products Stocks changes in Kt / quarter Probability Quarters Stock changes Prob. to be in the de stocking regime Optimization using RATS

6 Stock changes and regimes 4 If Probability >.5 = destocking regime If Probability <.5 = stock build-up regime Stock changes EU15 Total finished steel products Kt Quarters

7 Appendix: Hamilton s State space model applied to quarterly stocks variations, results ============================================================= First MAXIMIZE by Simplex Then with starting point = estimated parameters by Simplex MAXIMIZE - Estimation by BHHH Variable Coeff Std Error T-Stat Signif *************************************************************** 1. MU(1) MU(2) PHI(1) PHI(2) PHI(3) P P SIGMA

8 2 - Steel Demand trends To focus on main drivers of steel consumption and trade

9 The Steel intensity paradox: the huge potential of emerging countries 6 ASU China ASC CHINA 45 ASU INDIA ASC INDIA Steel consumption is growing with GDP growth ASC Millions Tonnes ASC Millions Tonnes but, excluding China, emerging markets as India are still at the early stage of their Steel Intensity Curve (India steel consumption is 1 kg per k$ of GDP in ppp per capita and China steel consumption is 35 kg per k$ of GDP in ppp per capita) ASC/GDP PPA 22 KG/$ SI Curve China GDP PPA 22 US$/CAPITA IN 1s SC/GDP PPA 22 KG/$ Si Curve India ( memoire longue) GDP PPA 22 US$/CAPITA IN 1s

10 Steel trade surplus and deficit by region Imports and exports ratios compared to market supply highlight each region s strategy to fulfil domestic and foreign demands Exports / market supply % exporter: exports capacities over domestic demand Balanced supply of domestic and external demand importer: imports market share to fulfil domestic demand Imports / Market Supply %

11 Steel trade surplus and deficit by region exporter INDIA semi finished & finished steel products 23 26e 25 Since India s early 9s reforms, Export ratio was multiplied by 8. Exports /market supply % importer Since 2, India s Import and Exports ratios are balanced Imports / Market supply in %

12 Steel trade surplus and deficit by region Exports / Market supply % exporter 26 e CHINA semi finished & finished steel products Imports / Market supply in % importer China: from net importer to net exporter despite huge growth of steel domestic demand

13 Steel trade surplus and deficit by region exporters Exports / Market supply % China 26 e India 24 India and China INDIA CHINA India 26 e 25 China 24 While China is exporting growing surplus to the world market, India is willing to keep a net exporter position along with a rise of imports semi finished & finished steel products importers Imports / Market supply in %

14 Steel trade surplus and deficit by region Trade flows, domestic and foreign demand exporters CIS WORLD Exports / Market supply in % CIS Asia Asia Oceania Oceania NA NA Other Europe Africa Other Europe Middle East EU1 Africa EU15 EU15 EU1 Middle East Imports / Market supply in % importers EU15 EU1 Other Europe CIS NA Africa Middle East Asia Oceania