Modeling Developing Country Emissions
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1 Modeling Developing Country Emissions Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI Global Climate Change Seminar May, Washington, DC
2 Global CO Emissions: Changing of the Guard 9 7 Rest of World India China Former SU Rest of OECD USA Projection Billion tons C Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Non-Annex B Emissions will surpass Annex B before Billion tons C Annex B Non-Annex B Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Reading the Data on Developing Countries Rapid growth in energy use and emissions China is the major player, both in rate and scale: GW installed capacity in GW newly installed source: J. Kejun (7) Have modeling scenarios caught up? What are the implications for global stabilization goals? Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Energy-related CO emissions in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (ORNL) Billion tons C 9 99 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Energy-related CO emissions in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (ORNL) IEA Reference Forecast () Billion tons C 9 99 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 Energy-related CO emissions in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (ORNL) IEA Reference Forecast () IEA Reference Forecast () Billion tons C 9 99 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
8 Energy-related CO emissions in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (ORNL) IEA Reference Forecast (7) IEA Reference Forecast () IEA Reference Forecast () Billion tons C 9 99 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 Billion tons C Energy-related CO emissions in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (ORNL) IEA Reference Forecast (7) IEA Reference Forecast () IEA Reference Forecast () New MERGE Baseline 9 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
10 Modeling the Kaya Identity Energy use per capita Population per capita income = GDP energy intensity = Primary Energy carbon intensity = Emissions Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
11 The Kaya Identity in China source: G. Marland () China Per Capita Income Emissions Population Carbon Intensity of Energy Energy Intensity of GDP Carbon Intensity of GDP Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
12 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (PWT) $US Trillions (MER) 9 99 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 $US Trillions (MER) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (PWT) New MERGE Baseline : 7.% : 9.% 9 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
14 Total Primary Energy in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (IEA) IEA Reference Forecast (7) EJ 9 99 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
15 EJ Total Primary Energy in China CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (IEA) IEA Reference Forecast (7) New MERGE Baseline 9 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
16 Comparison to Asian Experience China s per capita income in : $, (year $US PPP) 7 Asian countries are wealthier than China: Hong Kong Singapore Japan Taiwan Korea Malaysia Thailand Year of $, income level Income $9, $7, $, $9,9 $7, $, $7,7 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
17 $US Thousand (PPP) Per Capita Income Projection for China Other Asian Countries History (PWT) New MERGE Baseline 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
18 EJ / $US Trillion (PPP) Energy Intensity Projections for China Other Asian Countries History (PWT, IEA) New MERGE Baseline 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
19 GJ per person Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China Other Asian Countries History (IEA) New MERGE Baseline 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
20 GJ per person Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China Other Asian Countries CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (IEA) IEA Reference Forecast (7) New MERGE Baseline 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
21 Billion tons C Global CO Emissions CCSP Reference Scenarios () History (ORNL) New MERGE Baseline 9 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
22 Billion tons C Global CO Emissions CCSP Reference Scenarios () SRES Reference Scenarios () History (ORNL) New MERGE Baseline 9 99 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
23 Is (CO only) Feasible? CCSP ppmv CO Stabilization Scenarios 9 Rest of World History 9 India History China History 7 World Total History 7 Billion tons C Annex B Emissions 9 99 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
24 Billion tons C Is (CO only) Feasible? 9 7 CCSP ppmv CO Stabilization Scenarios Rest of World Baseline India Baseline China Baseline World Total History Annex B Emissions DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE History New MERGE Baseline Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
25 Billion tons C Is (CO only) Feasible? 9 7 CCSP ppmv CO Stabilization Scenarios Rest of World Baseline India Baseline China Baseline World Total History Annex B Emissions DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE History New MERGE Baseline Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
26 Conclusions There is considerable uncertainty about future growth but, the scenario shown here is plausible, consistent with current observations and historical experience If developing countries continue to grow along this baseline path, aggressive stabilization targets quickly become impossible to meet (without overshoot) Annex B countries must find a way to engage China Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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