China s Energy & Oil Demand

Transcription

1 s Energy & Oil Demand New York Energy Forum October, 006 Dermot Gately NYU Vehicle ownership paper (and other papers) available from website:

2 Take a long-range, historical view of s growing demand for energy and oil Analyze s income elasticity of energy and oil demand. How fast does demand grow relative to income growth? Analyze s growth in vehicle ownership, and make projections to 00 for vehicle ownership and total number of vehicles

3 Oil (mbd) Oil (mbd) Oil Demand and Real Income since (IEA data) OECD Non-Resid Total Oil Resid Real Income (Trillions $) Real Income (Trillions $) Total Oil Non-Resid Resid

4 Oil (mbd) Oil (mbd) Oil Demand and Real Income: -00 (BP data) OECD Total Oil Other Lt. Dist. Resid 00 Mid. Dist Lt. Dist. Total Oil Other Mid. Dist. Resid Real Income (Trillions $) Real Income (Trillions $) 6 7 8

5 Energy Demand and Real Income: -00 (BP data) Energy Consumption (mtoe) OECD Primary Energy 1000 Coal Nat. Gas Oil Real Income (Trillions $) 00 Energy Consumption (mtoe) Primary Energy Coal Oil Nat. Gas Real Income (Trillions $)

6 Per-capita Energy Demand and Real Income: -00 (BP data) Energy per capita (toe) OECD Primary Energy 00 Energy per capita (toe) 1 Primary Energy 00 Coal Oil Oil Nat. Gas Coal Real Income per capita (Th. $) Nat. Gas 6 7 Real Income per capita (Th. $) 8

7 s income elasticity of oil demand: Its oil demand will grow almost as rapidly as its income. Even with flat demand for Resid, the demand for all other oil products will grow almost as rapidly as income. Next: the growth of vehicle ownership.

8 Growth in Vehicle Ownership and Per-Capita Income: Germany, Japan, South Korea, USA 1000 Vehicles per 1000 people Japan 1960 S.Korea USA 1960 Germany 1960 S.Korea Japan Germany USA USA 00 Gompertz function per-capita income, (Real $ PPP, thousands)

9 Growth in Vehicle Ownership and Per-Capita Income: Brazil,, India, South Korea 1000 S.Korea 00 Vehicles per 1000 people Gompertz function India 00 Brazil 1960 India Brazil 00 Brazil 00 S.Korea India 1960 S.Korea per-capita income, (Real $ PPP, thousands)

10 1000 Modeling Vehicle Ownership as a function of Per-Capita Income: An illustrative S-shaped Gompertz function vehicle ownership: vehicles per 1000 people Vehicle ownership grows slowly at lowest income levels (below $000) about twice as rapidly as income in $000-$10000 range about as fast as income in range of $1000-$18000 quite slowly at highest income levels, as saturation is approached. income elasticity of vehicle ownership per-capita income (thousands) per-capita income (thousands)

11 Vehicle Ownership and Per-Capita Income: 8 countries Mexico 00 Spain 00 USA 00 Japan '0 USA 00 Spain 00 Japan 00 Korea USA 1960 Brazil Korea Mexico 00 Vehicles per 1000 people: historical 80 & projected Brazil 00 India India 00 Mexico 1960 Japan 1960 Brazil Spain 1960 Korea GDP per-capita: historical & projected

12 Vehicle Ownership and Per-Capita Income: Projections per-capita GDP (thousands, real, PPP) Country Average annual growth rate Vehicles per 1000 population Average annual growth rate Total Vehicles (millions) Average annual growth rate ratio of growth rates: Veh.Own. to per-cap. GDP United States 7.1% % 1 1.1% 0.08 Germany 8 1.7% % % 0.8 France 1.0% % 0 1.% 0. Great Britain.% % 1 1.% 0.7 Japan.0% % % 0.1 Brazil % % 1 8.1% % % %.0 Indonesia 7.% % % 1.89 India 6.% % % 1.98 OECD Total 1.% % % 0. Non-OECD Total 9.% % % 1.61 Total World % % % 0.9

13 History and Projections 00-00: Total Vehicles Rest of World Rest of Sample History Projections Brazil India Total Vehicles (millions) Rest of OECD 00 USA

14 Gasoline per Vehicle and Vehicle Ownership, -00. As vehicle ownership increases, fuel per vehicle declines. Fuel demand will increase more slowly than # Vehicles. Gasoline per Vehicle -00 (gallons per day) Mexico USA S.Korea Brazil 1 0 Germany India Japan Vehicles per 1000 people, -00

15 Projected Ratios of Vehicle Ownership Growth to Per-capita Income Growth, Comparison of D-G-S Projections with IEA(00) and OPEC(00) Region D-G-S IEA(00) OPEC(00) OECD Non-OECD India Egypt World

16 s income elasticity of oil demand. Its oil demand will grow almost as rapidly as its income. Even with flat demand for Resid, the demand for all other oil products will grow about as rapidly as income. s vehicle ownership will grow twice as rapidly as its income for next two decades. By 00 it will have nearly 00 million vehicles -- nearly 0 times as many vehicles as in and more vehicles than the USA. But its vehicle ownership of 70 per 1000 people about where South Korea was in 00 will still be only one-third of ultimate saturation levels.