34 COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES COMMODITY PRICE OUTLOOK
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1 TABLE Al. COMMODITY PRICES AND PRICE PROJECTIONS IN CONSTANT 1990 DOLLARS Short-term Long-term Actual projections projections Commodity Unit /990 / / _ Petroleum $/bbl / ,96 13 / Coal $/mt., Natural gas, US $/mmbtu I Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu , ,01 Coffee (Oth Milds) f/kg / /66 CofTee (Robusta) ~ /g / 386 / / Cocoa Vlkg / Tea &kg 437 3/ /88 / /49 / / 52 Sugar $/Mt / Beef ~ /g / /2 166 / Shnmp ~ /kg 1,108 1, ,079 1/027 1,071 1,187 1,165 LOSS5 1,092 1,110 1,100 /,051 Bananas $/Mt / / Oranges $/Mt / Rice $/mt / / / Wheat $/Mt 2/9 240 /98 / /32 / /34 /24 III Maize $/Mt / los Grain sorghum $/Mt / / Fats and oils Palmaoil $IMt 1,037 8/I / Coconut oil $/mt /, / Groundnut oil $/Mt 1,510 1,194 1, Soybean oil $/Mt 1, Soybeans $/Mt Copra $IMt Groundnut meal $/Mt / / Soybean meal $/mt 4/I / /90 Nonfood agriculture Cotton v/kg /92 / / /51 /52 ISO Rubb6r ~ /kg III /22 /19 1/4 I/O 117 Tobacco $/Mt 4,290 3,162 3,807 3,392 3,226 2,535 2,395 2,292 2,439 2,399 2,369 2,302 2,148 Logs (Meranti) $/cum / Logs (Sapelli) $/cumn Sawnwood $/cum Copper $/mt 5,634 3,032 2,066 2,662 2,139 1,799 2,094 2,549 1,898 1,641 1,678 1,676 1,742 Tin ~/kg 1,465 2,33/1 1, Nickel $/Mt 11,348 9,058 7,142 8,864 6,566 4,979 5,753 7,145 6,498 6,452 6,399 6,267 6,333 Aduminum $/mt 2,153 2,466 1,517 1,639 1, 176 1,071 1,340 1,568 1,300 1,365 1,417 1, Lead $/Mt 1,212 1, /I Zinc $/Mt 1,176 1,057 1,141 1,513 1, Iron ore. ~/MTU , / Gold $Aoz Silver g/toz 706 2, Phosphate rock $IMt Urea $/Mt /32 / /77 /57 /46 / TSP $/mnt / / /05 /20 /30 /43 / /8 /09 DAP $/Mt / /45 Potassium chloride' $/Mt /05 /0/ Not avai/able. Note. Computed from unrounded data and deflated by MUV (I1990= / 00) Forecast as of july 26, a. A~so known as muijate of potash. Source. World Bank, Istemational Economics Department, Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit. 34 COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
2 TABLE A2. COMMODITY PRICES AND PRICE PROJECTIONS IN CURRENT DOLLARS Short-term Long-term Actual projections projections Commodity Unit Petroleum $/bbi I , O Coal $/Mt , ~ Natural gas, US $/mmbtu Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu Coffee (Oth M/lds) 4/kg Coffee (Robusta) i/kg 9/ Cocoa 4 /kg / 58 / Tea 4 /kg I/O /73 / Sugar $/mnt Beef 4/kg /9/ 183 2/ Shnmp 4/kg 278 1, ,079 1,095 1,139 1,308 /,342 1,250 /,320 1,370 1,422 1,517 Bananas $/Mt Oranges $/Mt / Rice $/Mt Wheat $/Mt 55 / /36 /5/ /40 / /65 /60 /60 Maize $IMt 58 / / / /80 / /25 Grain sorghum $/Mt /04 / /75 /46 /26 1/8 /22 Fats and oils Palmaoil $/Mt / / Coconut oil $/mt Groundnut oil $Imnt / ,023 99/ 9/ Soybean oil $IMt / Soybeans $IMt Copra $/Mt / / / Groundnut meal $Imnt / /43 /85 /56 /68 /68 / / /6 270 Soybean meal $/Mt / / /92 / Nonfood agilculture Catton 4/kg /82 /28 /28 /76 2/3 179 /76 /87 / Rubber 4/k 4/ / / / /69 Tobacco $/Mt 1,076 2,276 2,6/2 3,392 3,440 2,695 2,639 2,639 2,890 2,900 2,925 2,975 3,100 Logs (Meranti) $/cum 37 /96 /22 / Logs (Sapelli) $/cum, / / 3/ Sawnwood $/cum / ,000 Copper $/Mt 1,413 2/182 1,417 2,662 2,281 1,913 2,307 2,936 2,249 1,984 2,072 2,166 2,5/13 Tin 4/kg 367 1,677 1, / / / 790 Nickel $/Mt ,519 4,899 8,864 7,001 5,293 6,340 8,228 7,700 7,800 7,900 8,100 9,138 Aluminum $/Mt 540 1,775 1,041 1,639 1,254 1,139 1,477 1,806 1,540 1,650 1,750 2,000 2,000 Lead $IMt / 8/I / Zinc $/rnt / 783 1,513 1, ,031 1,020 1,070 1,090 1,125,1,255 Iron ore i/dmtu Gold $AoZ / / Silver 4AOZ 177 2,064 6/ / Phosphate rock $/Mt II / / 44 Urea $IMt /36 / /07 /48 2/2 2/0 /90 / /87 TSP $IMt 43 /80 /2/ /32 /2/ 112 /32 / /60 / /58 DAP $/Mt /69 /7/ /45 /29 /73 2/ / Potassium chlondea $/Mt /07 /06 1/ /20 /27 /35..Not available. Note: Computed from unrounded data. Forecast of July 26, /996. a. A 4 iso known as munate of potash. Source- World Bank, International Economics Departmient, Commodity Policy and Analysis Unrt. AUGUST
3 TABLE A3. WEIGHTED INDEX OF COMMODITY PRICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS AND IN CONSTANT 1990 DOLLARS l990= / 00 Agriculture Nonfuel Raw materials Metals comma- and dities Total Total Groins Fats and oils Other Beverages Totol minerals Year Petroleum (100.0) (69,/)a (29.4)1 (6.9)1 (l0 Q)1 (124)" ( 69)"' (22.8)1 (9.3)a (28.1)" (2.7)a Current dollars I / I I / / , , I ' , / / /15.8 Constant 1990 dollars / / / / / /00.0 / /00 0 /00.0 / / / / / / / / / I /0/ 6 / / / /05S / / I /09.2 / /06.2 / / / / / Note- Figures far / are projections Weights used are the average I export values for low- and midd/e-income economies Forecast as of July 26, 1996 a. Percentage share of commodity group i nonfuel index Source World Bank, Interriational Economics Depatnment, Commodity Po/icy and Analysis Unit TABLE A4. INFLATION INDICES FOR SELECTED YEARS G-5 M UV index' US GDP deflator Year /990= /00 % change /990=/100 % change / / / / / / / Note: F.gures far are projections. Forecast as of July B. /1996. Growth rates for years 1985, 1990, 2000, and 2005 are compound annual r-ates of change between adlacent end-point years. all others are annual growth rates from the previous year. a. Unit value index in US dollar terms of manufactures exponted from the G-5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, UK, and US), weighted proportionally so the countnes' exports to the developing countnes Source: G-5 MLIV index, G-5 GDP/GNP deflator, and G-7 CPI. World Bank US GDP deflator: US Department of Commerce 36 COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
4 TABLE A5. COMMODITY PRICE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN CONSTANT 1990 DOLLARS 70% probability distnrbuuon Commodity Unit Petroleum $/bbl Coal $/mt Natural gas, US $/mmbtu Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu Coffee (other milds) /kg Coffee ( robusta) /kg Cocoa /Ag Tea /Ag Sugar (world) $/mt Beef Ckg Shnmp Vlkg 1,017-1, , , ,705 Bananas $/mt Oranges $/mt Rice $/mt Wheat $/mt Maize $/mt Grain Sorghum $/mt Fats and oil Palm oil $/mt Coconut oil $/mt Groundnut oil $/mt Soybean oil $/mt Soybeans $/mt Copra $/mt Groundnut meal $/mt Soybean meal $/mt Nonfood agriculture Cotton /kg Rubber - v/kg Tobacco $/mt 2,159-2,633 2,039-2,758 1,895-2,843 1,726-2,877 Logs (Meranti) $/cm Logs (Sapelli) $/cm Sawnwood $/cm Copper $/mt 1,612-2,144 1,346-1,969 1,309-2,031 1,206-2,094 Tin /kg Nickel $/mt 5,847-7,146 5,483-7,419 5,182-7,613 4,700-7,833 Aluminum $/mt 1,197-1,393 1,140-1,634 1,149-1,748 1,181-2,027 Lead $/mt Zinc $/mt , , ,088 Iron Ore V/DMTU Gold $Aoz Silver VAoz Phosphate Rock $/mt Urea $/mt TSP $/mt DAP $/mt Potassium chloridea $/mt Note. Forecast as of July 26, a. Also known as munaae of potash. Source. Worid Bank, Intematonal Economics Department, Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit. AUGUST
5 TABLE A6. COMMODITY PRICE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN CURRENT DOLLARS 70% probability distnbution Commodity Unit Petroleum $/bbl , Coal $/mt Natural gas, US $/mmbtu Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu Coffee (other milds) f/kg Coffee (robusta) f/kg Cocoa f/kg Tea /kg Sugar (world) $/mt Beef f/kg Shrimp f/kg 1,205-1,350 1,120-1,670 1,060-1,895 1,038-2,204 Bananas $/mt Oranges $/mt Rce $/mt Wheat $/mt Maize $/mt Grain Sorghum $/mt Fats and oil Palm oil $/mt Coconutoil $/mt ,110 Groundnut oil $/mt 790-1, , , ,ISS Soybean oil $/mt Soybeans $/mt Copra $/mt Groundnutmeal $/mt Soybean meal $/mt Nonfood agriculture Cotton f/kg Rubber f/kg Tobacco $/mt 2,559-3,121 2,465-3,335 2,340-3,510 2,231-3,719 Logs (Meranti) $/cm Logs (Sapelli) $/cm Sawnwood $/cm ,113 Copper $/mt 1,911-2,541 1,627-2,381 1,616-2,508 1,559-2,707 Tin f/kg Nickel $/mt 6,930-8,470 6,630-8,970 6,399-9, ,125 Aluminum $/mt 1,418-1,651 1,378-1,975 1,419-2,159 1,527-2,620 Lead $/mt Zinc $/mt 918-1, , , ,406 Iron Ore V/DM1TU Gold $Aoz Silver /oz Phosphate Rock $/mt Urea $/mt TSP $/mt DAP $/mt IS Potassium chlonde' $/mt Note: Forecast as of July 26, 1996 a. Also known as murate of potash. Source. Word Bank, internationa Economics Department, Commodity Policy and Analysis Usit. 38 COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
6 TABLE A7. RECENT COMMODITY PRICES Annual averages Quarterly averages Monthly overages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Jun Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jon-Mar Apr-Jun Apr May Jun Commodity Unit 1994 /995 / / Beverages Cocoa 4/kg / / Coffee Other milds 4/kg Robust' 4/kg / /89.8 Tea 4/k /53.0 /77 0 /736 / /76./ Cereals Grain sorghum $IMt /5 /08 I /44.0 / /858 /749 Maize $/Mt /076 / 23.5 / / / / /97.6 Rice: Thailand 5% BOT' $/Mt % Indicative $/Mt / /1 5 35% Indicative' $/Mt 21/ / /7.1/ 3/ /1I / A/ Speciala $/Mt / / Wheat Canada' $/Mt / /942 22/ U.S. HRW $/Mt / /59.2 / / ' U.S SRWVI $/Mt /38.6 / /45 8 /75.8 / / / Fats and oils Copr-aa $IMt / / Soybeans $IMt 25/ / / Coconurt oil $IMt /7.0 Groundnut oil $IMt / / Pa/rn oil $/Mt / Soybean oil $/Mt 61/ /8.7 6 / / Groundnut meal' $/Mt /683 / /567 /660 /843 /863 2/7 7 2/ /0.0 Soybean mea/ $/Mt / / / / Fisheries Shrimp' 4/Ikg / /464.7 / /289.7 / /414.6 Fish meal' $/nnt , Fruits Bananas $/Mt Oranges $/Mt 41/ d d Meat Beef: U.S. 4/kg 233 I /90.7 /79.4 /84.0 / / 8 /82.5 / /69 7 Lamb' 4/kg / Sugar E,U. Domestic 4/kg U.S. Domest/c 4/kg World 4/kg / 26.8 Fibers Cotton 4/kg /76.3 2/2.8 / /82.8 /82.5 /82.9 /82.9 jutea $/Mt / / / Sisal' $/imt I / Woo/, 4/kg / / / / Rubber RSS/I: Malays/a 4/g 1126 /58 0 / / /5S /45 7 / Singapore' 4/kg 1/154 /60.3 /52.8 /72 6 /34 6 /56.5 /56.9 /48.7 /46 6 /53 2 /46.3 U.S., 4/kg 13/ /7/ 6 /93.7 /SS./ /76 2 /66.9 / 65.5 /69.7 / 65.5 Metals and mninerals Aluminum $/Mt /476.8 /805.7 /575.4 /797.2 /836.4 /66/.7 / /587 2 /589 3 /482 5 Capper $/Mt /73.4 N/cke/ $/Mt / T/n 4/kg / / 2 6/92 Lead 4/kg / /.7 8/ Zinc 4/kg 99.8 /03 I / /00.9 / /03.6 /00.8 Golda $Aoz / / Si/ver' 4Aoz / /13.6 Iron ore 4/DMTU AUGUST
199/ ISO lbo
TABLE A 1. COMMODITY PRICES AND PRICE PROJECTIONS IN CONSTA~T 10 DOLLARS Commodity Petroleum Coal Coffee Cocoa Tea Sugar Beef Shrimp Bananas Oranges Rice Wheat Maize Grain sorghum Unit $tbbl Palm oil Coconut
Mining and quarrying 13,503 19,062 26,170 35,190 38,511 53,515 74,386 85,792 99, ,422
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