FED ER AL RESERVE statistical release

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1 FED ER AL RESERVE statistical release -! ' (3.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) April 16, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in March following declines of 0.9 and 0.5 percent, respectively, in February and January. The decline in output in March mainly reflected continued weakness in business equipment, construction supplies, and durable materials; production of motor vehicles rose about 2-1/2 percent as a further decline in autos only partially offset a sharp rise in trucks. Total industrial capacity utilization dropped 0.4 percentage point in March to 78.7 percent, its lowest level since September 1986 when the rate was 78.6 percent. For the first quarter as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of about 9-1/4 percent, after falling 7 percent in the previous quarter. At percent of its 1987 annual average, total industrial production in March was 3.3 percent below its year-ago level. Market Groups Excluding motor vehicles, the production of consumer goods rose slightly in March after declining in each of the four preceding months. Among the major components, the output of food and consumer energy products, particularly electricity for residential use, posted gains in March after declining for several months; however, the output of clothing and (over) IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N A N D C A P A C IT Y U T IL IZ A T IO N : S U M M A R Y Index. 1987=100 4 Percent chanae Industrial Production Decr Ja n r Febr MarP Decr Ja n r Febr MarP Mar 90 to Mar 91 Total Index / 105, Previous estimates Major market groups: Products, total Consum er goods Business equipment Construction supplies Materials Major industry aroups: Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Mining Utilities Capacity Percent of Capacity growth Average Mar 90 to Capacity Utilization Low Hiah Mar Decr Ja n r Febr MarP Mar 91 Total Industry Manufacturing Advanced processing Primary processing Mining Utilities

2 goods for the home, such as appliances, carpeting, and furniture, remained depressed. The production of business equipment excluding autos and trucks decreased again last month and has fallen about 2-1/2 percent since its peak in September of last year. Over this period, the output of industrial equipment has dropped sharply; in contrast, the production of commercial aircraft has increased and the output of information processing equipment, which includes computers, turned up during the first quarter after weakening late last year. Among materials, the output of durables declined again as production of parts for consumer durable goods and equipment were curtailed further. The output of nondurable materials, such as textiles, paper, and chemicals, was little changed last month following a sharp drop in February. The production of energy materials decreased again, owing, in part, to a decline in coal. Industry Groups Manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in March, reducing the factory utilization rate to 77.4 percent, its lowest rate since August Operating rates were down 0.5 percentage point for both primary and advanced processing industries. In the six months since last September, the utilization rate for primary processing industries has fallen 6.7 percentage points, while the rate for advanced processing industries has fallen 4.8 percentage points. Outside manufacturing, the operating rate at utilities rose sharply in March, but the rate for mining fell. The largest declines in utilization for primary processing industries in March were in stone, clay, and glass products and in fabricated metals. Production of stone, clay, and glass products has fallen dramatically during the past year; its operating rate in March is 10 percentage points below its level a year earlier. Similarly, utilization in lumber, another construction-related industry, is off 13 percentage points from a year earlier. On the positive side, utilization rates in petroleum and primary metals advanced for a second month. Among the advanced processing industries, utilization in motor vehicles and parts increased slightly in March, but the operating rates for most other industries declined. z

3 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION March data Industrial production indexes Twelve-month percent change Twelve-month percent change Total industry Manufacturing Ratio scale, 1987 production = 100 Ratio scale, 1987 production = 100 3

4 Table 1A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET GROUPS Proportion Index. 1987=100 in total IP Not seasonally adjusted * Item 1987 Oct Nov Dec1' Janr Febr MarP Oct Nov Decr Janr Febr MarP Total Index Products, total Final products C o n s u m e r goods D u ra b le Automotive products Autos and trucks Autos Trucks Auto parts and allied goods Other durable goods Appliances, T v s, and air-cond Carpeting and furniture Miscellaneous N ondurable Foods and tobacco , Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy products Fuels Utilities E quipm ent, total Business equipment Information processing & related Office and computing Industrial Transit Autos and trucks Other Defense and space equipment , Oil and gas well drilling Manufactured homes intermediate products Construction supplies Business supplies M aterials D urable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Basic metals Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Other Energy Primary Converted fuel SPECIAL AGGREGATES Total excluding: Autos and trucks Motor vehicles and parts Office and computing machines Consumer goods excluding: Autos and trucks Energy Business equipment excluding: Autos and trucks Office and computing equipment 12, Materials excluding: Energy ,

5 Table 1B INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET GROUPS 1989 Q4 annual rate Not seasonally adjusted Mar 90 to to Item Q41 Q2 Q3 Q4r Q1P Decr Janr Febr MarP Decr Janr Febr MarP Mar 911 Total index ito' Products, total Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Autos and trucks Autos Trucks Auto parts and allied goods Other durable goods Appliances, TVs, and air-cond Carpeting and furniture Miscellaneous , Nondurable Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy products Fuels Utilities Equipment, total Business equipment Information processing & related Office and computing Industrial Transit Autos and trucks Other Defense and space equipment Oil and gas well drilling Manufactured homes Intermediate products Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Basic metals Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Other Energy Primary Converted fuel SPECIAL AGGREGATES Total excluding: Autos and trucks Motor vehicles and parts Office and computing machines Consumer goods excluding: Autos and trucks Energy Business equipment excluding: Autos and trucks Office and computing equipment Materials excluding: Energy Based on seasonally adjusted data. 5

6 Table 2A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY GROUPS Item SIC Proportion in Total IP 1987 Oct Nov Dec/ ' Janr Febr MarP Index. 1987=100 Oct Nov Dec/ Not seasonally adjusted Janr Febr MarP Total index Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Durable Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel 331, Raw steel Nonferrous 333-6, Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Office & computing machines Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts Autos and light trucks Aerospace and misc , Instruments Miscellaneous Nondurable Foods Tobacco products ,9 Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal 11, Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals Utilities Electric 491,3pt Gas 492,3pt SPECIAL AGGREGATES Manufacturing excluding: Motor vehicles and parts Office and computing machines Memo: Motor vehicle assemblies1 Total , Autos Trucks Light Heavy and medium Note Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, prime;, metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass products. Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, nonelectrical machinery, electrical machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, miscellaneous manufactures, and government owned-and-operated ordnance. 6

7 Table 2B INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY GROUPS Item... SIC 1989 Q4 to Q41 annual rate Seasonallvadiusted. Not seasonallvadiusted Mar 90 to Q2 Q3 Q4r Q1P Ded Janr Febr MarP D e d Janr Fetf MarP Mar 911 Total Index Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Durable Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel 331, Raw steel Nonferrous 333-6, Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Office & computing machines Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts Autos and light trucks Aerospace and misc , Instruments Miscellaneous Nondurable Foods Tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal 11, Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals Utilities Electric 491,3pt Gas 492,3pt SPECIAL AGGREGATES Manufacturing excluding: Motor vehicles and parts Office and computing machines Based on seasonally adjusted data. 7

8 Table 3 CAPACITY UTILIZATION: MANUFACTURING, MINING, AND UTILITIES Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Item... SIC Proportion 1967 Ave Hioh 1975 Low High 1982 Low High. Mat Oct Nov Dec' Jarf Febr MafP Total Industry Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Durable Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel 331, Raw steel Nonferrous 333-6, Primary copper Primary aluminum Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Motor vehicles ana parts A Autos and light trucks Aerospace and misc , Instruments Miscellaneous Nondurable Foods Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Pulp and paper Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Plastics materials Synthetic fibers 2823, Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal 11, Oil and gas extraction Oil andgas well drilling Stone and earth minerals Utilities Electric 491,3pt Gas 492,3pt Series begins in Note Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass products. Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, nonelectrical machinery, electrical machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, miscellaneous manufactures, and government owned-and-operated ordnance. 8

9 9 Table 4 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY: MANUFACTURING, MINING, AND UTILITIES Stem... SIC Percent chanae Annual rate December to December Ave. Ave. Ave Mar Capacity indexes Percent of 1987 outout Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Total Industry Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Durable Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel 331, Raw steel Nonferrous 333-6, Primary copper Primary aluminum Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts Autos and light trucks Aerospace and misc , Instruments Miscellaneous Nondurable Foods Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Pulp and paper Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Plastics materials Synthetic fibers 2823, Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Leather and products Mining Metal mining Coal 11, Oil and gas extraction Oil and gas well drilling Stone and earth minerals Utilities Electric 491,3pt Gas 492,3pt Series begins in 1977.

10 Table 5A IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N, C A P A C IT Y A N D U T IL IZ A T IO N F O R T O T A L IN D U S T R Y : H IS T O R IC A L DATA Year. Industrial Production " flu Jan Feb Mar Apr.. May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual , , Utilization

11 Table SB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION FOR MANUFACTURING: HISTORICAL DATA Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aua Sep Oct Nov... Dec Q1 0 2 Q3 Q4 Annual industrial Production Capacity Utilization

12 12 Table 6 IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N : IN D U S T R Y S U B T O T A L S A N D IN D IV ID U A L S E R IE S Proportion in total IP tern SIC 1987 Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr index. 1987=100 Febr Not seasonally adjusted Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr Febr Metal mining Iron ore Nonferrous ores 102 6,8, Copper Lead and zinc Gold and silver Ferroalloy Anthracite Bituminous coal Oil and gas extraction Crude oil and natural gas Crude oil, total Texas Alaska and California Louisiana and other Natural gas Natural gas liquids Propane Liquefied petroleum Oil and gas well drilling Foods Meat products Beer Pork Poultry Miscellaneous meats Dairy products , Butter Cheese Concentrated milk Frozen desserts Canned and frozen food Grain mill products Flour , Bakery products , Fats and oils , Beverages ,, Beer and ale 2082, Soft drinks 2086, Coffee and miscellaneous Tobacco products , Textile mill products , Fabrics , Cotton and synthetic 221, Knit goods Hosiery 2251, Knit garments 2253,4, Carpeting Yarns and miscellaneous 228, Apparel products Lumber and products Logging and lumber Lumber products 241, , Millwork and plywood Manufactured homes

13 Table 6 (continued) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Item SIC Proportion in total IP 1987 Index. 1987= Not seasonally adjusted Sep Oct Nov Derf Janr Febr Sep Oct Nov Dec1' _Janr Febr Furniture and fixtures Household furniture Office furniture, fixtures, and miscellaneous 252,4, Paper and products Pulp and paper Wood pulp Paper Paperboard Converted paper products Paperboard containers Printing and publishing Newspapers Periodicals, books, and cards 272,3, Job printing 274-6,8, , Chemicals and products Industrial chemicals and synthetic materials 281,2, Basic chemicals Alkalies and chlorine Industrial gases Inorganic pigments Inorganic chemicals, nec Acids and other Synthetic materials Plastics materials Synthetic rubber Synthetic fibers 2823, Industrial organic chemicals Chemical products 283-5, Drugs and medicines Soap and toiletries Paints Agricultural chemicals Petroleum products Petroleum refining and misc. 291, Automotive gasoline Distillate fuel oil Residual fuel oil Aviation fuel and kerosine Miscellaneous petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Tires Other rubber products 302-4, Plastics products, nec Leather and products Personal leather goods 313,5-7, , Shoes Stone, clay, and glass products Pressed and blown glass Glass containers Cement Structural clay products Brick Clay tile 3253, Concrete and miscellaneous

14 Table 6 (continued) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Proportion in total IP Item SIC 1987 Sep Oct Nov Ded Janr Index,, 1987=100 Febr Not seasonally adjusted Sep Oct Nov Ded Janr Febr Primary metals Iron and steel 331, Basic steel and mill products Basic iron and steel Pig iron Raw steel Steel mill products Consumer durable steel Equipment steel Construction steel Can and closure steel Miscellaneous steel Iron and steel foundries Nonferrous metals 333-6, Primary nonferrous metals Copper Aluminum Secondary nonferrous metals Nonferrous products 335, Nonferrous mill products Copper Aluminum Construction Misc. aluminum materials Nonferrous foundries Fabricated metal products Metal containers Hardware, tools, and cutlery Structural metal products Fasteners, stampings, etc Nonelectrical machinery Engines and turbines Farm Construction and allied Metalworking Special industry General industrial Office and computing machines Service industry machines Electrical machinery Major electrical and parts 361, Household appliances Cooking equipment Refrigerators and freezers Laundry Miscellaneous , TV and radio sets Communication equipment Electronic components TV tubes Misc. electrical supplies Storage batteries Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts Autos Trucks and buses Business vehicles Consumer trucks Truck trailers Motor vehicle parts Aircraft and parts Ships and boats Rail and miscellaneous 374-6,

15 Table 6 (continued) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: INDUSTRY SUBTOTALS AND INDIVIDUAL SERIES Item SIC Proportion in total IP 1987 Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr Index, 1987=100 Febr Not seasonaliv adjusted Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr Febr Instruments Scientific and medical Photographic equip. & supplies Misc. manufactures Consumer goods 391,3,4, Business supplies 395, Electric utilities 491,3pt Generation Fossil fuel , Hydro and nuclear Sales Residential Nonresidential Industrial Commercial and other Gas utilities 492,3pt Table 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: GROSS VALUE OF PRODUCTS Billions of 1982 dollars at annual rates, seasonally adjusted Item Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4r Q1P Oct Nov Dec/ Janr Febr MarP Products, total Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space Intermediate products , Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products

16 Table 8 ELECTRIC POWER USE: MANUFACTURING AND MINING Item SIC Index,199.7.= 1QQ 1987 Not seasonally adjusted Billion KWH Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr FebP Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr FebP Total , MAJOR INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Mining INDUSTRY GROUPS and SERIES Metal mining Iron ore Copper ore ,5 C o a l 11, OBI and gae extraction Crude oil and natural gas Natural gas liquids Stone and earth minerals Crushed stone Sand and gravel Chemical and fertilizer materials Foods Meat products Dairy products Canned and frozen food Grain mill products Bakery products Sugar and confectionery Fats and oils Beverages Coffee and miscellaneous Tobacco products Textile m ill products Fabrics Knit goods Fabric finishing Yarn and thread Miscellaneous textiles Apparel products Men s outerwear 231, Women s outerwear Lumber and products Lumber Millwork and plywood Furniture and fixtures Household furniture Paper and products Wood pulp Paper Paperboard Converted paper products Paperboard containers Building paper and board 266 * Printing and publishing Newspapers Commercial printing Chemicals and products Basic chemicals Alkalies and chlorine Inorganic chemicals, nec Acid and fertilizer materials Nuclear materials, nondefense , 'Not available because of SIC classification changes. 16

17 Table 8 (continued) ELECTRIC POWER USE: MANUFACTURING AND MINING Index = Seasonallv adjusted Not seasonallv adjusted Biiiion Item SIC KWH Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr FebP Sep Oct Nov Decr Janr FebP Chemicals and Products (cont.) Synthetic materials Plastics materials Drugs and medicines Soap and toiletries Industrial organic chemicals Agricultural chemicals Petroleum p ro d u cts Rubber and plastics p ro d u cts Tires Rubber products, nec Plastics products, nec Leather and p ro d u cts Shoes Stone, clay, & glass p ro d u cts Flat glass Pressed and blown glass Cem ent Structural clay products Concrete products P rim ary m etals Basic steel and mill products Iron and steel foundries Primary nonferrous metals Alum inum Nonferrous foundries Fabricated m etal p ro d u cts Meta! containers Hardware, tools, and cutlery Structural metal products ; Fasteners Metal stampings N onelectrical m ach in ery Engines and turbines Farm Construction and allied Metalworking Special industry , General industrial Office and computing machines Service industry machines Electrical machinery Electrical distribution Electrical industrial Household appliances Lighting and wiring products , TV and radio sets Communication equipment Electronic components Transportation equipment Motor vehicles and parts , Aircraft and parts Ships and boats , Instruments 3$ Photographic equip. & supplies Miscellaneous manufactures SUPPLEMENTARY GROUPS Total, excluding nuclear nondefense Utility sales to industry Industrial generation

18 Explanatory Note The Industrial P roduction and C apacity U tilization release reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries. Survey data on electric power use in manufacturing and mining also are included. Data shown the release are available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce s online Economic Bulletin Board ( ). Historical data are available on magnetic tape from the National Technical Information Service ( ). Industrial Production Coverage. The industrial production index (IP) measures output in the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries. The total IP index is constructed from 250 individual series. These individual series are classified and grouped two ways: 1) market groups (shown in table 1), such as consumer goods, equipment, intermediate products, and materials, from which the seasonally adjusted total index is derived; and 2) industry groups (shown in tables 2 and 6), such as two-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industries and major aggregates of these industries, for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. The 1977 SIC is the basis for industry classification of DP. M ark et groups. For purposes of analysis, the individual IP series are grouped into final products, intermediate products, and materials. Final products are assumed to be purchased by consumers, businesses, or government for final use. Intermediate products are expected to become inputs in nonindustrial sectors, such as construction, agriculture, and services. Materials are industrial output requiring further processing within the industrial sector. Total products comprises final and intermediate products, and final products are divided into consumer goods and equipment. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript p in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript r in tables.) After the fourth month, indexes are not revised further until the time of an annua! revision or a benchmark revision. The last three benchmark revisions were published in, 1985, and Source data. In annual or benchmark revisions, the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Surx'ey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the Bureau of Mines; and publications of the Department of Energy. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units, and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Physical product data, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations, as well as tlie government agencies listed above; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP where possible and appropriate. When suitable physical product data are unavailable, estimates of output are based on either production-worker hours, kilowatt hours, or a combination of the two. Hours of production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The kilowatt hours data are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive data used to benchmark the IP indexes (censuses, annual surveys, and the like); these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. Especially for the first and second estimates for a given month, the available source data are limited and subject to revision. Weights. In the index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are weighted according to their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The industrial production index, which extends hack to 1919, is built in chronological segments that are linked together to form a continuous index expressed as a percentage of output in a comparison-base year (currently 1987). Each segment, which usually spans five years, is a Laspeyres quantity index showing changes in quantities with prices (Census value added per unit of output) held at base-year values for the segment. For the period from 1987 to the present, IP is aggregated on the basis of 1987 value-added weights. The aggregation of the index for the period is based on 1982 weights, while 1977 weights are used for the period. The other weight years in the postwar period are 1972, 1967, 1963, 1958, 1954, and The 1987 value-added weights used to aggregate the index are shown in the first column of tables 1, 2, and 6 under the heading Proportion in total IP To the extent that a given industry grows faster (slower) than the total index after 1987, its current proportion will rise (fall). Proportions for the most recent complete year of data are shown in the second column of tables 1, 2, and 6. Seasonal adjustm ent. Individual series are seasonally adjusted by the X 11 Arima Method, which was developed at Statistics Canada. The current seasonal factors are based on data through Individual series and major aggregates are seasonally adjusted independently. The seasonally adjusted total index is calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted major market groups, and may not precisely equal an aggregation of the seasonally adjusted industry groups. In addition, because the seasonal adjustment of aggregates is done separately, the seasonally adjusted value of a given market or industry group may not be equal to an aggregation of its seasonally adjusted components. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IPindex, without regard to sign, between the preliminary estimate and its third revision (or from the first and the fourth estimates) was 0.36 percent during the period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.27 percentage point during the same period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. In some cases, components may not add to totals because of independent rounding. In addition, the published percent changes are calculated from indexes with three digits of precision to the right of the decimal point, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. References. Industrial Production Edition contains a more detailed description of the methods used to compile the index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. To obtain Industrial Production Edition at a price of $9.00 per copy, write to Publication Services, Mail Stop 138, Board of Govemvors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C The revision to the index is described in Kenneth Armitage and Dixon A. Tranum, Industrial Production: 1989 Developments and Historical Revision, Federal Reserve Bulletin, Vol. 76 (April ), pp Capacity Utilization Definition. Capacity utilization is calculated for the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries. For a given industry, the utilization rate is equal to an output index divided by a capacity index. Output is measured by seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production. The capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable practical capacity, which is defined as the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the machinery and equipment in place. The 74 individual capacity indexes are based on a variety of data, including capacity data measured in physical units compiled by trade associations, surveys of utilization rates and investment, and estimates of growth of the capital stock. Groups. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including primary and advanced processing industries within manufacturing, durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, and total industry. Component industries of the primary and advanced processing groups within manufacturing are listed in the note on tables 2 and 3 of the release. Weights. Value-added proportions are used to weight the individual capacity indexes in aggregations in the same manner as individual DP series are aggregated to the total index of industrial production. Although each utilization rate is the result of dividing an IP series by a corresponding capacity index, aggregate utilization rates are equivalent to combinations of individual utilization rates aggregated with proportions that reflect current capacity levels of output valued in base-period value-added per unit of actual output. The implied proportions of individual industry operating rates in the rate for total industry for the most recent year are shown in the first column of table 3. Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total manufacturing, utilization rates as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime. References. The basic methodology used to estimate capacity and utilization is discussed in Richard D. Raddock, Revised Federal Reserve Rates of Capacity Utilization, Federal Reserve Bulletin, Vol. 71 (October 1985), pp The revision of capacity and capacity utilizaton is described in Richard D. Raddock, Recent Developments in Industrial Capacity and Utilization, Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 76 (June ), pp EksickjEfiim: Electric power (kilowatt hour) data are collected by the Federal Reserve District Banks from electric utilities and also from manufacturing and mining establishments that generate electric power for their own use (cogenerators). The indexes of power use shown in table 9 are sums of kilowatt hours used by an industry or industry group expressed as a percentage of that industry s or group s usage in The first column of the table shows, for reference, electric power use in billions of kilowatt hours as reported by manufacturing and mining industries in the 1987 censuses of those industries except for the components in group 2819, which are estimates. The supplementary group, Total, less nuclear nondefense, is shown separately because the nondefense nuclear material series (part of SIC 2819) accounts for a disproportionately large part of total electric power use. Because the value-added proportion for this industry in total IP is considerably smaller than its share of total electric power use, excluding this component from total power use facilitates comparisons with total IP. R elease Schedule for At 9 :15 a.m. on January 16, February 15, March 15, April 16, May 14, June 14, July 16, August 16, September 17, October 17, November 15, and December

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