Revised July 17, 2017
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1 Revised July 17, 2017
2 ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (June 2016 June 2017) Jun-16 Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Purchasing Managers' Index New Orders Production Employment Inventories Source: Institute for Supply Management
3 NAM Manufacturers Outlook Survey by Quarter (First Quarter 2016 Second Quarter 2017) 93.3% 89.5% 77.8% 61.7% 61.0% 56.6% 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 Source: NAM Manufacturers Outlook Survey Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.
4 Expected Manufacturing Growth Over Next 12 Months (First Quarter 2016 Second Quarter 2017) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Q1:2016 Q2:2016 Q3:2016 Q4:2016 Q1:2017 Q2: % Sales Exports Capital Investments Full-Time Employment Source: NAM Manufacturers Outlook Survey Note: Expected growth rates are annual averages. Avg. 12-Month Growth Rates Sales: 4.8% Exports: 1.1% Capital Investments: 3.2% Full-Time Employment: 2.7%
5 Primary Current Business Challenges (Second Quarter 2017) Rising health care/insurance costs 74.7% Attracting and retaining a quality workforce 64.4% Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations) 55.7% Rising raw material costs for our products 38.8% Strengthened U.S. dollar relative to other currencies 29.9% Weaker domestic economy and sales for our products 28.3% Weaker global growth and slower export sales 14.9% Challenges with access to capital 7.2% Source: NAM Manufacturers Outlook Survey Note: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100 percent.
6 Percentage Changes in Manufacturing Production (June 2016 June 2017) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% Jun-16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -1.0% Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Source: Federal Reserve Board
7 Year-Over-Year Industrial Production Growth (June 2016 June 2017) 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jun-16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Industrial Production Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Source: Federal Reserve Board
8 Year-Over-Year Growth in Manufacturing Production by Sector (June 2016 to June 2017) Computer and electronic products 4.9% -7.0% Apparel and leather Petroleum and coal products 4.7% Nonmetallic mineral products 4.3% Wood products 4.1% -3.0% Miscellaneous durable goods Fabricated metal products 2.5% Food, beverage and tobacco products 1.8% -2.5% Aerospace & misc. trans. equipment Machinery Printing and support 1.7% 1.4% Chemicals 1.2% -2.0% Textile and product mills Furniture and related products 1.1% Motor vehicles and parts 1.0% Primary metals 0.7% -1.1% Electrical equipment & appliances Plastics and rubber products 0.3% Paper 0.0% Source: Federal Reserve Board YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH Manufacturing (NAICS): 1.4% Durable Goods: 1.3% Nondurable Goods: 1.5%
9 IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Indices for the Top 15 Export Markets for U.S. Manufactured Goods (June 2017) N/A Canada Mexico China Japan United Kingdom Germany South Korea Netherlands Hong Kong Belgium Brazil France Singapore Taiwan UAE Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 57.4 Global Manufacturing PMI: 52.6 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Markit): 52.0 Source: IHS Markit
10 Monthly Changes in Employment (June 2016 June 2017, in Thousands of Employees) Jun-16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nonfarm Payrolls Manufacturing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 Manufacturing Sectors with the Largest Net Employment Gains (June 2016 to June 2017, in thousands of employees) Food manufacturing 28.3 Miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing Machinery Fabricated metal products Primary metals Nonmetallic mineral products Chemicals Furniture and related products Electrical equipment and appliances 5.1 Miscellaneous durable goods manufacturing Petroleum and coal products Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Contributions to Percentage Change in First Quarter 2017 Real GDP Growth Nonresidential Fixed Investment 1.23% Service-Sector Consumer Spending 0.64% Residential Fixed Investment 0.48% Net Exports Nondurable Goods Consumption 0.23% 0.23% First Quarter 2017 Real GDP Growth 1.4% -0.02% State and Local Government Spending -0.12% Durable Goods Consumption -0.14% Federal Government Spending -1.11% Change in Private Inventories
13 3.5% Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2009 Dollars) Real GDP Forecast: 1.6% (2016) 2.3% (2017) 2.3% (2018) 2.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 2016:I II III IV 2017:I II III IV 2018:I II III IV Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations using Moody s Analytics simulation model
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15 OUTLOOK FOR THE US CHEMICAL INDUSTRY NAM 3 rd Quarter Economic Webcast 20 July 2017 Dr. Thomas Kevin Swift, CBE Chief Economist & Managing Director
16 Perspectives on the Business Cycle, Commerce and Industry
17 Indicators of US Economic Progress Indexed where Last Business Cycle Peak (December 2007) = Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments Real Business Sales Industrial Production Non-Farm Payrolls Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 US Recoveries/Expansions in History October July 1953 May August 1957 April April 1960 February December 1969 November November 1973 March January 1980 July July 1981 November July 1990 March March 2001 November December 2007 Average June ????? Duration in Months Sources: NBER and ACC analysis
19 Our Leading Barometer (CAB) of the US Business Cycle Suggests Accelerating Activity Through Year-End Index where 2012 =100 (3MMA) Recession Chemical Activity Barometer
20 Year-over-Year Chemical Activity Barometer vs. Industrial Production % Change Year-over-Year (3MMA) Recession Industrial Production Chemical Activity Barometer
21 US Light Vehicle Sales Peaking but Remain Elevated while US Housing Continues its Slow Rise Light Vehicle Sales - Millions of Units (SAAR) Housing Starts - Thousands of Units (SAAR) Sources: BEA, Census, and ACC analysis 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,
22 Perspectives on Energy
23 US Oil and Gas Production Recovers with Gas Regaining New Highs Million Barrels per Day (BPD) Billion Cubic Feet (BCF) per Day Crude Oil Production (left) Natural Gas Production (right) Sources: EIA and ACC analysis
24 Resulting in Surging Ethane Supply and Ethane Exports Thousand Barrels per Day 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Ethane Domestic Demand Ethane Net Exports Sources: EIA and ACC analysis
25 Perspectives on Chemistry
26 US Feedstock Costs Remain Advantaged Western European Naphtha ($/metric ton) US Ethane ($/gallon) $1,000 $1.00 $900 $0.90 $800 $0.80 $700 $0.70 $600 $0.60 $500 $0.50 $400 $0.40 $300 $0.30 $200 $0.20 $100 $0.10 $ $ Sources: EIA and ICIS
27 Oil-to-Gas Ratio: A Proxy for US Petrochemical Competitiveness Divide Brent oil price ($ per barrel) by Henry Hub natural gas price ($ per million BTUs). When the ratio is above 7, US competitiveness is favorable vis-à-vis other major producing regions. Above 10 and competitiveness is further enhanced. The current ratio is very favorable for US competitiveness and exports of petrochemicals, plastics and other derivatives Sources: EIA, ICE, NYMEX
28 Lower US Manufacturing Costs: Case of High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) $ per Metric Ton By 2016, US among the low cost producers globally, but because of lower falling oil and naphtha prices a shallower (less steep) cost curve US Gulf CoastUS Gulf Coast (2005) (2016) Northwest Europe (2005) Northwest Europe (2016) Middle East (2005) Middle East (2016) Northeast Asia (2005) Northeast Asia (2016) Raw Materials Utilities Direct Costs Other Costs Sources: ACC analysis
29 US Basic Chemical and Synthetic Materials Production Outlook Quarterly Production (000 MT) 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Year % % % % % % % Sources: ACC, AFPM, AMFA, CI, USGS and ACC analysis
30 US Basic Chemical and Synthetic Materials Production and Capacity Utilization Outlook Quarterly Production (000 MT) Operating Rate (%) 180, % 160,000 95% 140,000 90% 120,000 85% 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 80% 75% 70% 20,000 65% % Sources: ACC, AFPM, AMFA, CI, USGS and ACC analysis
31 Evolution of US Specialty Chemical Markets % Change Year-over-Year in Volumes
32 US Specialty Chemical Market Volume Outlook Quarterly Market Volume (000 MT) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Year % % % % % % %
33 For Further Information Please feel free to address questions to: Dr. Thomas Kevin Swift, CBE Chief Economist & Managing Director American Chemistry Council Follow me on
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