Appendix 2 Global Economic Indicators

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1 Appendix 2 Global Economic Indicators 151

2 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.1 Growth of real GDP, (GDP in 1987 prices and exchange rates average annual percentage growth) 1998 GDP (current billions of Estimate Forecast U.S. dollars) World 28, High-income economies 22, Industrial 21, G 7 18, United States 8, Japan 3, G 4 Europe 6, Germany a 2, Euro Area 6, Other industrial 3, Other high-income Asian NIEs Low- and middle-income economies 6, Excluding Eastern CIS 5, Asia 2, , China Korea, Rep. of Indonesia India and the Caribbean 2, Brazil Mexico Argentina , Russian Federation b Turkey Poland Middle East and North Saudi Arabia Iran, Islamic Rep Egypt, Arab Rep Republic of South Nigeria Note: Growth rates over intervals are computed using least squares method. a. Data prior to 1991 covers West Germany. b. Data prior to 1992 covers the former Soviet Union. Source: World Bank data and staff estimates. Figure A2.1 Real GDP growth, High-income economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North 152

3 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Table A2.2 Growth of real per capita GDP, (GDP in 1987 prices and exchange rates average annual percentage growth) 1998 GDP per capita Estimate Forecast (current U.S. dollars) World 5, High-income economies 25, Industrial 25, G 7 26, United States 31, Japan 29, G 4 Europe 23, Germany a 25, Euro Area 22, Other industrial 2, Other high-income 16, Asian NIEs 16, Low- and middle-income economies 1, Excluding Eastern CIS 1, Asia , China Korea, Rep. of 6, Indonesia India and the Caribbean 4, Brazil 4, Mexico 4, Argentina 9, , Russian Federation b 2, Turkey 3, Poland 3, Middle East and North 1, Saudi Arabia 6, Iran, Islamic Rep. 1, Egypt, Arab Rep. 1, Republic of South 2, Nigeria Note: Growth rates over intervals are computed using least squares method. a. Data prior to 1991 covers West Germany. b. Data prior to 1992 covers former Soviet Union. Source: World Bank data and staff estimates. Figure A2.2 Real per capita GDP growth, High-income economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North 153

4 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.3 Inflation: GDP deflators, (percentage change a ) Estimate Forecast World High-income economies Industrial G United States Japan G 4 Europe Germany b Euro Area Other industrial Other high-income Asian NIEs Low- and middle-income economies Excluding Eastern CIS Asia China Korea, Rep. of Indonesia India and the Caribbean Brazil Mexico Argentina Russian Federation c Turkey Middle East and North Saudi Arabia Iran, Islamic Rep Egypt, Arab Rep Republic of South Nigeria Note: Deflators are in local currency units; 1987 = 1. Growth rates over intervals are computed using least squares method. a. High-income group inflation rates are GDP-weighted averages of local currency inflation. Low- and middle-income groups are medians. World is GDP-weighted average of the two groups. b. Data prior to 1991 covers West Germany. c. Data prior to 1992 covers former Soviet Union. Source: World Bank data and staff estimates. Figure A2.3 GDP inflation, High-income economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North 154

5 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Table A2.4 Current account balances, (percentage of GDP) 1998 current account (billions of Estimate Forecast U.S. dollars) World High-income economies Industrial G United States Japan G 4 Europe Germany a Euro Area Other industrial Other high-income Asian NIEs Low- and middle-income economies Excluding Eastern CIS Asia China Korea, Rep. of Indonesia India and the Caribbean Brazil Mexico Argentina Russian Federation b Turkey Poland Middle East and North Saudi Arabia Iran, Islamic Rep Egypt, Arab Rep Republic of South Nigeria Note: Current account after official transfers. Shares over intervals are period averages. a. Data prior to 1991 covers West Germany. b. Data prior to 1992 covers former Soviet Union. Source: World Bank data and staff estimates. Figure A2.4 Ratio of current account balance to GDP, High-income economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North 155

6 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.5 Exports of goods, 1997 (percent) Merchandise Average Effective Merchandise Average Effective Merchandise Average Effective exports annual market exports annual market exports annual market (US$ growth growth (US$ growth growth (US$ growth growth millions) a millions) a millions) a World 5,537, and Middle East and North the Caribbean (continued) (continued) All developing 1,369, Uruguay 2, Saudi Arabia 62, economies Venezuela 21, Syrian Arab 3, Rep. Asia 599, , Tunisia 5, Yemen, Rep. 2, and 546, Armenia Pacific Azerbaijan , China 182, Belarus 7, Fiji Bulgaria 4, Angola 5, Indonesia 53, Czech 22, Botswana 2, Korea, Rep. 136, Republic Cameroon 1, Malaysia 78, Estonia 2, Côte 4, Myanmar Georgia d Ivoire Papua New 2, Hungary 18, Ethiopia Guinea Kazakhstan 6, Gabon 2, Philippines 25, Kyrgyz Ghana 1, Thailand 57, Republic Kenya 2, Vietnam 7, Latvia 1, Madagascar Lithuania 3, Nigeria 15, , Moldova Senegal Bangladesh 3, Poland 25, South 31, India 35, Romania 8, Sudan Nepal Russian 88, Zambia Pakistan 8, Federation Zimbabwe 2, Sri Lanka 4, Slovak 8, Republic High- 4,168, , Tajikistan income economies and the Caribbean TFYR 1, Argentina 26, Macedonia Industrial 3,651, Bolivia 1, Turkmenistan 1, Brazil 52, Turkey 26, G 7 2,659, Chile 16, Ukraine 14, France 29, Colombia 11, Uzbekistan 3, Germany 512, Costa Rica 4, Italy 252, Dominican Middle East 153, Japan 42, Republic and North United 281, Ecuador 5, Algeria 14, Kingdom El Salvador 1, Bahrain 4, United 688, Guatemala 2, Egypt, Arab 3, States Jamaica 1, Rep. Mexico 11, Iran, Islamic 18, Other 992, Panama Rep. industrial Paraguay 1, Iraq 8, Australia 62, Peru 6, Jordan 1, Austria 58, Trinidad and 2, Morocco 7, Belgium b 178, Tobago Oman 7, Denmark 47,

7 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Table A2.5 Exports of goods, 1997 (continued) (percent) Merchandise Average Effective Merchandise Average Effective Merchandise Average Effective exports annual market exports annual market exports annual market (US$ growth growth (US$ growth growth (US$ growth growth millions) a millions) a millions) a Other industrial (continued) Other industrial (continued) Other high- Finland 39, Sweden 82, income (continued) Greece 8, Switzerland 72, Kuwait 14, Iceland 1, Qatar 4, Ireland 53, Other high- 516, Singapore 124, Netherlands 194, income Taiwan, 121, New 14, Brunei 2, China Zealand Hong Kong, 188, United Arab 23, Norway 48, China Emirates Spain 14, Israel 22, Not available. a. Effective market growth is a weighted average of import volume growth in the country s export markets. b. Includes Luxembourg Note: Merchandise exports are f.o.b. in current U.S. dollars. Growth rates are for export volumes. Growth rates over intervals are computed using least squares method. Source: see Technical Notes. Figure A2.5a Merchandise exports as a share of GDP, World 1 Industrial economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North Figure A2.5b Average annual growth rate of export volumes, World 5 Industrial economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North 157

8 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.6 Imports of goods, 1997 (percent) Merchandise Annual Merchan- Merchandise Annual Merchan- Merchandise Annual Merchanimports average dise imports average dise imports average dise (US$ growth imports/ (US$ growth imports/ (US$ growth imports/ millions) GDP millions) GDP millions) GDP World 5,541, and Middle East and the Caribbean (continued) North (continued) All developing 1,385, Uruguay 3, Jordan 4, economies Venezuela 14, Morocco 9, Oman 5, Asia 6, , Saudi 28, Arabia and 536, Armenia Syrian 4, Pacific Azerbaijan Arab Rep. China 142, Belarus 8, Tunisia 7, Fiji Bulgaria 4, Yemen, Rep. 2, Indonesia 41, Czech 28, Korea, Rep. 144, Republic 76, Malaysia 79, Estonia 4, Myanmar 2, Georgia Angola 2, Papua New 1, Hungary 2, Botswana 2, Guinea Kazakhstan 4, Côte 2, Philippines 38, Kyrgyz d Ivoire Thailand 62, Republic Cameroon 1, Vietnam 1, Latvia 2, Ethiopia 1, Lithuania 5, Gabon 1, , Moldova 1, Ghana 2, Bangladesh 6, Poland 42, Kenya 3, India 37, Romania 11, Madagascar Nepal 1, Russian 73, Nigeria 1, Pakistan 11, Federation Senegal 1, Sri Lanka 5, Slovak 1, South 32, Republic 27, Tajikistan Sudan 1, and the Caribbean TFYR 1, Zambia Bolivia 1, Macedonia Zimbabwe 2, Brazil 65, Turkmen- 1, Chile 19, istan High 4,155, Colombia 15, Turkey 48, income economies Costa Rica 4, Ukraine 17, Dominican 4, Uzbekistan 4, Industrial 3,63, Republic Ecuador 4, Middle East 121, G 7 2,669, El Salvador 2, and North Canada 2, Guatemala 3, France 269, Jamaica 3, Algeria 9, Germany 445, Mexico 114, Bahrain 4, Italy 28, Panama 3, Egypt, 13, Japan 338, Paraguay 3, Arab Rep. United 36, Peru 1, Iran, 14, Kingdom Trinidad and 2, Islamic Rep. United 899, Tobago Iraq States 158

9 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Table A2.6 Imports of goods, 1997 (continued) (percent) Merchandise Annual Merchan- Merchandise Annual Merchan- Merchandise Annual Merchanimports average dise imports average dise imports average dise (US$ growth imports/ (US$ growth imports/ (US$ growth imports/ millions) GDP millions) GDP millions) GDP Other 961, Other industrial (continued) Other high-income (continued) industrial New 14, Hong Kong, 28, Australia 65, Zealand China Austria 64, Norway 35, Israel 3, Belgium a 166, Portugal 33, Kuwait 8, Denmark 44, Spain 122, Qatar 3, Finland 29, Sweden 65, Singapore 132, Greece 27, Switzerland 71, Taiwan, 113, Iceland 1, Other high- 525, China Ireland 39, income United 29, Netherlands 178, Brunei 2, Arab Emirates.. Not available. a. Includes Luxembourg Note: Merchandise imports are c.i.f. in current U.S. dollars. Growth rates are for import volumes. Growth rates over intervals are computed using least squares method. Source: see Technical Notes. Figure A2.6a Merchandise imports as a share of GDP, World 1 Industrial economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North Figure A2.6b Average annual growth rate of import volumes, World 5 Industrial economies and the Caribbean Middle East and North 159

10 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.7 Direction of merchandise trade, 1997 a (percentage of world trade) High-income importers Low- and middle-income importers Latin Middle America All Sub- East Europe East and low- Other All Other All Saha- Asia and and the and United indust- indust- high- high- ran and South Central North Carib- middle- Source of exports States EU-15 Japan rial rial income income Pacific Asia Asia bean income World High-income economies Industrial United States EU Japan Other industrial Other high-income b Low- and middle income economies Middle East and North and Caribbean World a. Expressed as a share (percent) of total world exports. World merchandise exports in 1997 amounted to some $5,5 billion. b. Other high-income group includes the Asian newly industrializing economies, several oil exporters of the Gulf region, and Israel. Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics. 16

11 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Table A2.8 Growth of current dollar merchandise trade, by direction, (average annual percentage growth) High-income importers Low- and middle-income importers Latin Middle America All Sub- East Europe East and low- Other All Other All Saha- Asia and and the and United indust- indust- high- high- ran and South Central North Carib- middle- Source of exports States EU-15 Japan rial rial income income Pacific Asia Asia bean income World High-income economies Industrial United States EU Japan Other industrial Other high-income Low- and middle income economies Middle East and North and Caribbean World Note: Growth rates are compound averages. Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics. 161

12 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.9 Structure of long-term public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt, 1997 (percentage of long-term PPG debt) Non-concessional Non-concessional Concessional Variable Fixed Concessional Variable Fixed All developing (continued) economies Bulgaria Czech Republic Asia Estonia Georgia China Hungary Indonesia Kazakhstan Korea, Rep Kyrgyz Republic Malaysia Latvia Myanmar Lithuania Papua New Guinea Moldova Philippines Poland Thailand Romania Vietnam Russian Federation Slovak Republic Tajikistan Bangladesh Turkmenistan India Turkey Nepal Ukraine Pakistan Uzbekistan Sri Lanka Middle East and and North the Caribbean Algeria Argentina Egypt, Arab Rep Bolivia Jordan Brazil Morocco Chile Oman Colombia Syrian Arab Rep Costa Rica Tunisia Dominican Republic Yemen, Rep Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Angola Jamaica Botswana Mexico Côte d Ivoire Panama Cameroon Paraguay Ethiopia Peru Gabon Trinidad and Tobago Ghana Uruguay Kenya Venezuela Madagascar Nigeria Senegal Sudan Armenia Zambia Azerbaijan Zimbabwe Belarus Note: Nonconcessional debt data are available only for countries which report to the World Bank s Debtor Reporting System. For aggregate figures, missing values are assumed to have the same average value as the available data. Source: World Bank data. 162

13 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Figure A2.9a Structure of long-term PPG debt, by group, Concessional Variable rate Fixed rate 2 Severely indebted low-income Moderately indebted low-income Severely indebted middle-income Moderately indebted middle-income Other Figure A2.9b Structure of long-term PPG debt, by region, Concessional Variable rate Fixed rate 4 2 and the Caribbean Middle East and North Figure A2.9c Top ten ratios of nonconcessional debt to GDP, 1997 Nicaragua Angola Congo, Rep. Congo, Dem. Rep. Bulgaria Guinea-Bissau Vietnam Mozambique Côte d'ivoire Guyana

14 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.1 Long-term net resource flows to developing countries, 1997 (millions of U.S. dollars) Private Official Official age Net debt development Total of GDP Total flows FDI Portfolio Total assistance Other All developing countries 338, ,953 15,34 163,423 3,191 39,94 33,139 5,955 Asia 137, ,367 34,751 68,946 11,67 21,928 7,623 14,36 122, ,257 3,78 64,284 9,193 18,337 4,851 13,486 China 65, ,828 8,134 44,236 8,457 4, ,771 Indonesia 11, ,863 5,888 4, Korea, Rep. 17, ,69 8,968 2,844 1,257 4, ,65 Malaysia 9, ,312 4,695 5, Myanmar Papua New Guinea Philippines 4, ,164 2,869 1, Thailand 9, , , , ,559 Vietnam 2, , , , ,11 3,971 4,662 2,477 3,592 2, Bangladesh 1, India 8, ,37 2,839 3,351 2, Nepal Pakistan 3, ,97 1, Sri Lanka and 115, ,918 47,399 61,573 9,947 2,931 3, 5,931 the Caribbean Argentina 19, ,835 1,954 6,645 2, Bolivia 1, Brazil 41, ,377 19,89 19,652 3,835 1, ,528 Chile 9, ,637 3,734 5, Colombia 9, ,151 4,53 5, Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Jamaica Mexico 15, ,533 6,3 12,477 2,52 4, ,513 Panama 1, , , Paraguay Peru 4, , , , Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela 6, , , , ,874 22,753 22,314 4,88 9,178 5,713 3,465 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bulgaria Czech Republic 1, , , Estonia Georgia Hungary 2, ,65 1,284 2,79 1, Kazakhstan 2, , , Kyrgyz Republic Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland 7, , , Romania 2, ,274 1,59 1, Russian Federation 15, ,453 5,6 6,241 1,26 2, ,418 Slovak Republic 1, , Tajikistan Turkmenistan Turkey 12, ,221 1, Ukraine 1, , Uzbekistan

15 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Table A2.1 Long-term net resource flows to developing countries, 1997 (continued) (millions of U.S. dollars) Private Official Official age Net debt development Total of GDP Total flows FDI Portfolio Total assistance Other Middle East and 6, , ,368 2,259 1,199 3,669 4,868 North Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. 3, , , , Iran, Islamic Rep. 4, , ,236 Jordan Morocco , , Oman Syrian Arab Rep Tunisia 1, Yemen, Rep , , ,222 1,57 12,118 13,135 1,18 Angola Botswana Côte d Ivoire Cameroon Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Kenya Madagascar Nigeria 1, , , Senegal Sudan Zambia Zimbabwe Source: World Bank data. Figure A2.1a Ditribution of long-term net resource flows, Official 2 Private 4 Middle East and and the Caribbean North Figure A2.1b Change in share of private long-term flows, Middle East and and the Caribbean North 165

16 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S Table A2.11 Manufactures unit value, LIBOR, and commodity prices, selected years, G 5 unit value index of manufactures a LIBOR b Commodity price indexes, current dollar terms Weights (199=1) (percent) Petroleum Nonfuel commodities Agriculture Food Beverages Raw materials Metals and minerals Fertilizers Commodity prices, current dollars Units Agriculture Cocoa cents/kg Coffee cents/kg Tea cents/kg Sugar cents/kg Banana $/mt Beef (cents/kg) Wheat $/mt Rice $/mt Maize $/mt Coconut oil $/mt Palm oil $/mt Soybean oil $/mt Soybeans $/mt Cotton cents/kg Rubber cents/kg Other Logs $/cm Sawnwood $/cm Urea $/mt Metals and minerals Copper $/mt 1,29 1,413 1,237 1,41 1,31 1,367 1,985 2,182 1,742 1,48 1,592 Aluminum $/mt ,5 1,88 1,23 1,456 1, ,439 Nickel $/mt 1,735 2,846 4,57 4,974 5,23 4,61 5,986 6,519 5,953 4,838 4,673 Gold ($/toz) Phosphate rock $/mt Steel products index 199= Energy Crude petroleum $/bbl Coal $/mt a. Unit value index in U.S. dollar terms (199=1) of manufactures exported from the G 5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) weighted by the country s exports to developing countries. Figure A2.11a Price indexes relative to manufacturers unit value index, Index (199=1) 3 25 Coffee Wheat 5 Copper Petroleum Jan.-Oct

17 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S Table A2.11 Manufactures unit value, LIBOR, and commodity prices, selected years, (continued) Jan.-Oct , ,377 1,417 1,374 1,783 2,62 2,848 2,662 2,339 2,281 1,913 2,37 2,936 2,295 2,277 1,654 1,538 1,251 1,41 1,15 1,565 2,551 1,951 1,639 1,32 1,254 1,139 1,477 1,86 1,56 1,599 1,357 1,331 4,752 4,899 3,881 4,872 13,778 13,38 8,864 8,156 7,1 5,293 6,34 8,228 7,51 6,927 4,63 5, b. London interbank offer rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits. For detailed descriptions of the price series, see the website Figure A2.11b Price indexes relative to manufacturers unit value index, Index (199=1) Beverages 15 Food 1 5 Raw Materials Metals and minerals Jan.-Oct

18 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C P R O S P E C T S 168

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