All Aboard: The Dry Bulk Markets Changing Course. A Presentation to Global Grain Asia. by Janina Lam, Howe Robinson Shipbrokers

Transcription

1 All Aboard: The Dry Bulk Markets Changing Course A Presentation to Global Grain Asia by Janina Lam, Howe Robinson Shipbrokers 12 th March 214

2 Index Value ( ) Baltic Dry Index 22 Today 12 BDI 9 BDI Annual Average source: Baltic Exchange, Howe Robinson Research

3 US$ / Day Million Dwt Timecharter Average BCI & BPI TC Avg. BCI TC Avg. BPI Correlation TC BCI & BPI ytd Capesize Supramax Panamax Handysize +7.4mt +211% 5 3 source: Baltic Exchange, Howe Robinson Research

4 US$ / Tonne US$ / Day Major Grain Routes vs. BCI Howe Robinson Grain Freight Rates USG - N.China NoPac - N.China S.Brazil - N.China TC Avg. BCI source: Baltic Exchange, Howe Robinson Shipbrokers

5 US$ / Day 6 4 Capesize 212 Avg: 7, Avg: 6, Avg: 14,199 Baltic Timecharter Averages Annual Averages of Same Time Period Panamax 212 Avg: 8, Avg: 6, Avg: 11, Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Handymax 212 Avg: 8, Avg: 7, Avg: 11, Handysize 212 Avg: 6, Avg: 6, Avg: 1, Jan Apr Jul Oct source: Howe Robinson Research, Baltic Exchange Jan Apr Jul Oct

6 Eternal Triangle DEMAND Derived Effective Demand Growth >1% DRY CARGO MARKET FLEET Annual Avg. y-o-y Growth 1% Dec-13 y-o-y Growth 5.7% BDI Annual Avg. y-o-y Growth 33% Dec-13 y-o-y Growth 157%

7 Index Value ( ) Y-o-Y Changes BDI vs. Fleet Growth 4.5 BDI BDI Annual Average 18% 3. 12% 1% 1, ,219 6% 5.7% Dry Bulk Fleet Cumulative Impact of Dry Bulk Fleet % source: Baltic Exchange, Lloyd's Register Fairplay, Zosen News & various other sources, Howe Robinson Research

8 Million Dwt Bulk Carrier Fleet Growth as of 1 st March Net Fleet Growth Deletion Gross Deliveries * source: Howe Robinson Research, Lloyd's Register Fairplay, Zosen News & various other sources

9 DRY BULK TRADE

10 Million Tonnes Major Bulk Cargoes & Discharges in the Pacific 1,2 Iron Ore Coal 1% Grain (excl. Soya) Grain (incl. Soya) 1, % Pacific Share of Total Discharges 8% 8 6 6% 4 4% 2 2% % source: Maritime Strategies International, Howe Robinson Research

11 Million Tonnes Global Steel Production Changing Balance 1,6 Others US 5% CIS EU27 1,2 Japan Share China China 4% 3% 8 2% 4 1% % source: WSA, Howe Robinson Research

12 Million Tonnes Iron Ore Exports 8 6 Australia Brazil Others 213: +1% 214: +13% 4 2 source: GTIS, LBH, Howe Robinson Research

13 Million Tonnes Coal Exports Coal Trade Coastal Coal Trade Indonesia Australia Others 8 213: 214: +1.6% +4.4% 213: +7.4% 6 214: +1.7% * * source: GTIS, Howe Robinson Research

14 Key Minor Bulk Trades Unit: mt * Other Steel Forest Products Fertilisers Minor Ores Agris Bauxite/Alumina Cement Minerals Scrap Pet Coke Total 1,218 1,284 1,327 1,43 1,466 Change % Change 5.4% 3.3% 5.8% 4.5% source: Maritime Strategies International

15 GRAIN MATTERS

16 Million Tonnes World Grain* Imports Largest Importing Countries 75 China Japan Mexico Saudi Arabia Egypt Indonesia S.Korea Iran source: GTIS, Howe Robinson Research *Grain: Barley, Corn, Soyabeans, Soymeal, Wheat

17 Millions Tonnes China Remains the Key Grain Imports to Increase by c.26% in Crop Year 213/ /14 Forecast 2 15 Soybeans Barley Soybean Meal Wheat Corn 69.mt (+16%) 2.5mt (+14%) 8.5mt (+221%) 5.mt (+85%) 1 5 source: GTIS, USDA, Howe Robinson Research

18 Million Tonnes US Brazil Argentina World Soyabean Exports Three Main Exporting Countries 9 China Share China Share China Share 9% 6 6% 3 3% % source: GTIS, Howe Robinson Research

19 Million Tonnes Brazil Soyabean Ports Line-Up 151 Vessels on 6 th March Total Waiting Expected Berthed 6 3 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 source: Bloomberg, Howe Robinson Research

20 No. of Vessels source: Port of Paranagua Paranagua Port Congestion Bottlenecks on Roads & Shortage of Warehousing Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14

21 Million Tonnes Grain Export Forecast Corn + soya bean shipments to increase by 21mt * % +1% Wheat Corn Barley Soyabeans SBM source: GTIS, USDA, Howe Robinson Research

22 The Dawn of a New Cycle What Will it Look Like?

23 HR Pmx Index vs. TC Avg. BPI HR Fixture Reports Baltic Exchange Difference Avg. Dwt Avg. TC Avg. Dwt Baltic TC Q112 77,428 9,986 74, 7,983 25% Q212 78,434 1,746 74, 9,63 12% Q312 78,628 7,86 74, 6,64 18% Q412 78,49 7,934 74, 6,553 21% Q113 78,664 8,532 74, 7,55 21% Q213 77,599 8,781 74, 7,775 13% Q313 78,69 1,481 74, 8,926 17% Q413 79,37 15,269 74, 14,234 7%

24 US$ Million Bunker Element of Freight Baltic Panamax Soya Bean Brazil / China Ballasting ex Singapore Fixed Costs Bunker Costs TC Bunker % Share TC % Share 6 9% 4 6% TC Bunker Freight 27 82% 15% $71.8/t 213 3% 61% $39.6/t 2 3% % source: Howe Robinson Research

25 Oil & Bunker Price Index 198 = 1 4 Crude Oil IFO Bunkers source: Maritime Strategies International, Howe Robinson Research

26 Measuring Fuel Efficiency At ECO Speed A Panamax On Average FUEL Moves CARGO HOW MANY MILES? 766, Miles!! (or 3 Equatorial Circumnavigations) ie: 1 Fuel Tonne Moves a Laden 75, Dwt Panamax approx 11.4 miles

27 Cargo Tonne-Miles / Fuel Tonne (') Measuring Fuel Efficiency Panamax Fleet Full Speed Fuel Efficiency ECO Speed Fuel Efficiency 1,5 1,2-6.2% +5.5% Japanese Newbuilding +86% +5% +57% 9 +29% % +5.% source: Howe Robinson Research 25th Percentile 5th Percentile 75 th Percentile

28 Shipyards Owners Traders Shippers/ Receivers

29 US$ / Day 18 Forward TC Avg. BPI Monthly Avg. Spot TC Rates & FFAs Avg TC BPI FFA TC BPI (Nov-13) FFA TC BPI (Mar-14) source: Howe Robinson Research, Baltic Exchange

30 Supramax Trade Patterns 58-62, Dwt Voyages Employment Days Others 2% Coal 24% Others 22% Coal 2% Petcoke 3% Bauxite 2% Cement 6% Ferts 7% Grain 18% Petcoke 2% Bauxite 2% Ferts 7% Cement 8% Grain 22% Steel 6% Nickel Ore 7% Iron Ore 7% Steel 6% Nickel Ore 5%!ron Ore 6%

31 Kamsarmax Trade Patterns Voyages Avg. 8 Voyages / Year Employment Days Minor Bulk 9% Minor Bulk 7% Iron Ore 1% Iron Ore 1% Grain 23% Coal 58% Grain 37% Coal 46%

32 Post-Panamax Trade Patterns Voyages Avg. 7 Voyages / Year Employment Days Bauxite 4% Other 1% Bauxite 2% Other 1% Iron Ore 18% Iron Ore 17% Grain 15% Coal 62% Grain 24% Coal 56%

33 No. of Vessels Post-, Kamsar- & Panamax Fleet Development & Age Profile as of 1 st March yrs + above yrs 1-14 yrs 5-9 yrs -4 yrs On Order 1, Panamax (73-78,999 dwt) 12 Kamsarmax (79-84,999 dwt) 75 Post-Panamax (85-119,999 dwt)

34 No. of Vessels Ultra-, Supra- & Handymax Fleet Development & Age Profile as of 1 st March yrs + above yrs 1-14 yrs 5-9 yrs -4 yrs On Order 1,5 12 1, ,999 dwt 55-59,999 dwt 6-67,999 dwt

35 TCE ( US$ / Day) Panamax Optimum Speed Haypoint Zhoushan $1.82 $15.2 $2 $ Jpn Kmx China Kmx Kmx NB Jpn Kmx China Kmx Kmx NB Jpn Kmx China Kmx Kmx NB Jpn Kmx China Kmx Kmx NB , ,355 1,927 5,57 15,484 14,592 17,617 17,373 2,477 28,478 27,866 31,445 31,294 34,442 48,333 48,375 52,476 52,534 55, ,55 1,21 2,678 2,24 6,452 16,379 15,439 17,518 17,264 2,83 29,38 28,376 31,19 3,857 34,457 48,173 48,166 51,51 51,548 54, ,12 2,521 3,561 2,562 7,354 17,292 16,34 17,866 17,152 21,192 29,61 28,896 31,24 3,41 34,472 48,8 47,952 5,856 5,539 53, ,547 2,92 5,21 4,3 8,278 17,291 16,26 18,678 17,947 21,561 29,278 28,519 31,475 3,843 34,486 47,17 47,5 5,551 5,217 53, ,1 4,475 5,387 4,915 8,662 17,29 17,153 18,587 18,3 21,481 28,939 29,51 31,33 3,835 34,51 46,185 46,771 49,517 49,526 52, ,49 5,486 5,762 5,28 8,488 17,765 17,592 18,493 18,196 2,934 29,59 29,131 3,579 3,369 33,151 45,615 46,158 48,456 48,453 5, ,531 5,932 6,146 5,653 8,884 17,769 17,561 18,396 18,89 2,843 28,79 28,741 3,113 29,892 32,687 44,654 45,155 47,369 47,353 49, ,426 5,796 6,538 5,451 17,284 17,44 18,297 17,51 27,87 27,866 29,636 28,935 43,286 43,748 46,254 45, ,923 5,656 6,941 5,836 17,281 16,513 18,194 17,382 27,496 26,969 29,146 28,426 42,273 42,35 45,111 44, ,82 5,512 6,754 5,631 16,778 15,97 17,599 16,77 26,623 26,5 28,163 27,425 4,844 4,827 43,554 43, , Dwt 82, Dwt NB Freight (US$ / Tonne)

36 Thank You

37 US$ / Day Timecharter Average BCI & BPI Correlation TC BCI & BPI ytd.84 TC Avg. BCI TC Avg. BPI source: Baltic Exchange, Howe Robinson Research

38 Million Dwt Annual Fleet Deliveries Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize +7.4mt +211% source: Howe Robinson Research, Lloyd's Register Fairplay, Zosen News & various other sources

39 US$ / Day Timecharter Average BCI & BPI TC Avg. BCI TC Avg. BPI Correlation TC BCI & BPI source: Baltic Exchange, Howe Robinson Research