Development of power industry in Russia

Transcription

1 International Conference POWER PLANTS 2010 Vrnjačka Banja, Serbia, October, 2010 Development of power industry in Russia K.A. Grigoryev PhD, Chief at the Department of Reactor and Steam Generator Saint-Petersburg State Polytechnical University 29 Polytechnical street, St.-Petersburg, , Russia

2 The electric power the most convenient kind of energy, therefore considerable growth of its consumption in the world is inevitable World final consumption of energy by kinds 16,5 TW-h 19% Dynamics and structure of the electric power production by resources kinds in the world 16% 6% 19% 40% 25,5 TW-h 17% 13% 4% 23% 43% 16% 30,7 TW-h 12% 24% 4% % Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro & other RES Nuclear Source: EIA

3 Power consumption growth in Russia is caused by economy development Economic structure, bln. US dollar Preconditions of economic growth for Russia : Powerful resource base % Territorial advantage Integrated power grid USSR 5% % 23% 21% ,7% 28% 5% 28% 5% 28% 10% 28% 23% 17% 25% Real GDP US China Russia EU-15 Other Sources: The World Bank; Goldman Sachs

4 Social and economic development of Russia till GDP (bln. rbl.) 22,0 6.2% 7.4% 63,9 54, (fact) 25% Structure of GDP % 42% 45% 43% 50% 39% 46% 43% 15% 9% 7% 8% 8% 5% 3% 3% 22,7 bln. rbl. 22,0 bln. rbl. 54,3 bln. rbl. 63,9 bln. rbl. % Mid-annual rate of increase Industry Agriculture & Forestry Transport & Communication Trade & Services The other Territorial distribution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 21,6 19,3 5,5 6,5 2,2 North-West 7,5 Centre 4,2 5,0 1,7 South 10,7 9,2 3,7 Volga Region 9,5 8,1 3,3 Ural 10,5 7,9 3,5 Siberia & The Far East 2005 (base) (max)

5 Electricity consumption up to million MW-h Electricity consumption 5,2% ,1% 1197 (fact) Regional Electricity Consumption (EC), TW-h % 4.5% % 5.1% % 5.4% % 4.6% % 4.2% % % % 6.4% EC EC / Average annual growth for - (base) EC / Average annual growth for - (max)

6 Requirement for power capacity Requirement for new power capacity Requirement 326 Dynamics of real power capacity GW GW Requirement for power capacity (base) Requirement for power capacity (maximum) Regional installed capacity, GW Installed capacity Installed capacity (base) Installed capacity (maximum)

7 Development of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) Development of nuclear power generation (take account of forcing) Plan of installation and removal of the power equipment, GW Installed capacity, GW Geography of Installation ,3 GW Installation + 32,3 GW Removal 4,0 GW 4,0 + 34,1 GW Installation + 38,1 GW Removal 4,0 GW Operating Planning

8 Development of Hydraulic Power Engineering (HEPP & HEPSPP) Development of HEPP (take account of reconstruction) Installed capacity, GW Plan of installation of the power equipment, GW Geography of Installation ,9 GW + 30,7 GW Operating HEPP Operating HEPSPP Planning HEPP Planning HEPSPP

9 Development of Coal Power Generation (TPP) HEGP Installed capacity, GW Development of coal-burning TPP Regional installed capacity of coal TPP, GW , Plan of installation and removal of the power equipment, GW GW Installation GW Removal 7.9 GW GW Installation GW Removal 7.9 GW

10 Development of Gas Power Generation (TPP) Regional installed capacity of gas TPP, GW Development of gas-burning TPP Installed capacity, GW HEGP Plan of installation and removal of the power equipment, GW GW 23, Installation GW Removal 39.8 GW GW Installation GW Removal 39.8 GW

11 Max Max Dynamics and structure of the electric power capacity and production in Russia Structure of power capacity 11% 21% 40% 28% 15% 34% 21% 30% 15% 30% 19% % 31% 24% 30% GW HEPP NPP TPP coal TPP gas Max 71,7 76,5 53, ,7 142,8 117,8 119, Max % 211 GW Structure of power production Target 2030 TW-h Max Max 16% 18% 43% 21% 33% 14% 32% % 17% 32% HEPP NPP TPP coal TPP gas % 19% 13% 29% 33% %

12 Requirement for fuel Requirement for natural gas (bln. m 3 ) TPP Requirement for coal (mln. t) Requirement for black oil (mln. t) % 25% 3% 68% Fuel balance TPP 2% 2% Gas 40% 56% 295 mln. t.e.f. 428 mln. t.e.f. Efficiency 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Coal Oil Other Increase of efficiency of electric power industry of Russia Average Efficiency of TPP Average Efficiency of gas TPP Average fuel rate TPP 2% 2% 47% 49% 493 mln. t.e.f. g.e.f / KW-h

13 Fuel Prices Parity of the prices for gas and coal in the different countries in ($ / t.e.f) $ / tef ($ / tcm) Forecast of the prices for gas and coal Gas Coal 200 (180) 178 (160) 97 (45) Plan 1.8 x2 х2 Europe Average Japan Average US Average US TPP Russia 81 (73) 2011 Gas Coal Natural Gas is too cheap in Russia. It interferes with development of coal generation. Sources: BP, EIA, APBE