Inspirational Solar UK and Global Growth

Transcription

1 Inspirational Solar UK and Global Growth 14 th October 2014 Paul Barwell STA CEO Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 1

2 1)The macroeconomic benefits for the UK of investment in solar PV Solar powered growth in the UK (Cebr) 2)Global growth Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3)Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) 4)Solar Independence Campaign Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 2

3 Cebr report describes 3 Scenarios Scenario of which: large scale Installed Capacity (GW) capacity (GW) Solar Strategy Ministerial Ambition Bold Scenario Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 3

4 Cebr report describes 3 Scenarios Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 4

5 10-25Bn GVA contribution to GDP from Solar Farms by 2030 Scenario GVA Large Scale 2030 Solar Strategy 10b Ministerial Ambition 18b Bold Scenario 25b Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 5

6 Huge jobs potential in solar domestic, commercial and Large scale Scenario Jobs Average to 2030 Solar Strategy 17,000 Ministerial Ambition 33,000 Bold Scenario 49,000 Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 6

7 425m consumer surplus potential 425m could be put back into consumers pockets by 2030 if solar is rolled out on an ambitious scale just from large scale 450m cost of 12GW large scale solar under bold scenario Year 2030 payback Anticipate All scales of solar could be 3x bigger This would be in the form of lower electricity bills, cheaper prices for goods and services that rely on electricity and a lowered tax burden. Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 7

8 Module Inverter Balance of plant EPC Other Note: Based on costs for ground mounted systems over 1MW. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 8

9 Historical Forecast 64.2GW 40.3GW 46.6GW 54.6GW 28.5GW 30.6GW 18.2GW 6.6GW 7.7GW Western Europe Eastern Europe Japan USA China India Rest of World Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 9

10 6.0 Capex (EUR/W) Electricity (EUR/MWh) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Capex sub 10kW (EUR/W) Residential power price (EUR/MWh) Feed-in tariff <10kW (EUR/MWh) Commercial power price(eur/mwh) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 10

11 Flexible capacity Solar thermal Small-scale PV 300 Utility-scale PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Biomass Geothermal 150 Hydro Nuclear 100 Other Gas 50 0 Oil Coal Note: Figure excludes retirements Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 11

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13 US coal EU gas EU coal US gas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 13

14 Messages from Europe (renewables) will need to stand on own two feet State aid approval more challenging Political uncertainty and upheaval Political pressure on consumer bills The budgets are bust Full FIT s review in 2015 Solution: STA Solar Independence Plan Independence from subsidy Independence from political uncertainty Independence from volatile market prices Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 14

15 Stable solar markets deliver year on year cost reductions to parity Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 15

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19 Deployment Scenarios (MW) Solar Strategy "20GW" Bold Scenario FIT's 6,888 10,228 12,087 RO ground 3,400 4,350 4,850 RO rooftop ,120 CfD's 350 4,850 7,100 Total 11,008 20,298 25,157 Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 19

20 No changes ---- With policy changes--- Cost to the LCF DECC "11GW" STA "20GW" STA "25GW" FiT (Legacy) 555m 555m 555m FiT 376m 366m 416m RO 233m 312m 352m CfD 6m 85m 127m Total 1,169m 1,318m 1,449m Total generation (GWh) 12,057 20,357 24,775 Annual household cost % of LCF budget 14.3% 16.1% 17.7% FIT s SAVES 10m plus extra 3.3GW rooftop solar WITH policy changes 11GW to 20GW is 149m more 20GW to 25GW is a further 131m. Still less than 20% of LCF budget in 2020 with 25GW (including all legacy costs!) (Note DECC 11GW is STA; s interpretation only) Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 20

21 For an Extra 149m in 2020: Fully costed and budgeted plan Deliver 20GW solar 20 TWh renewable electricity ONLY on consumer bills Zero tariffs by 2020 No further burden to LCF beyond 2020 No further need for state aid intervention A cost effective VfM investment on behalf of the UK consumer A rich prize for the next Government! Demonstrates that Investment in renewables works. Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 21

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23 Inspirational Solar UK and Global Growth Thank you! Paul Barwell STA CEO Trina,Yingli,Bosch,Kingspan 23