The role of electricity in the clean energy transition

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1 The role of electricity in the clean energy transition Laszlo Varro, Chief Economist Annual Conference Federation of Danish Energy Industries, 26 April 2018 IEA

2 On the journey towards a clean energy system We made it to the base camp, with a tough climb ahead.

3 Imagine an alternative universe where Large-scale deployment of baseload geothermal replaces baseload coal. Rapid progress with biogas provides low carbon CH4 for gas turbines. In this case we would have a copy paste transition without needing to rethink grid operations.

4 Instead, low carbon investment is increasingly dominated by wind and solar PV 250 Investment into non-hydro renewables, Wind Solar PV 0 variable renewables biomass, geothermal and other dispatchable renewables biofuels and renewable heat Asymmetrical technological progress with wind and PV are driving electrification and necessitates a system transformation.

5 Wind and solar costs continue to plummet Wind and solar PV average LCOEs and auction results by commissioning date USD 2016/MWh Onshore wind average auction price Solar PV average auction price 100 Solar PV - utility scale LCOE 50 Onshore wind LCOE Competitive auctions combine technology incentives with ultra low cost of capital.

6 Share of electriicty Climate policy strongly accelerates the historical trend of electrification 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Historical RTS B2DS 0% Rapid decarbonization of electricity opens new opportunities on a well-below 2 path.

7 The so-called decentralized renewables All of wind and the large majority of solar deployment relies on an interconnected network.

8 Achieving access for all by 2030

9 Grid defection remains unpractical with a temperate climate The overwhelming majority of solar prosumers remain connected to the grid, leading to multi-directional grid utilisation.

10 Solar and the distribution grid: the curse of correlation In the absence of incentive signals for storage and system friendly deployment, a large solar penetration requires expensive distribution upgrades.

11 Growth of IoT and connected devices Household electricity consumption of appliances and other small plug loads TWh Network-enabled Not connected The growth in network-enabled devices presents opportunities for smart demand response but also increases needs for standby power. 11

12 Is electricity transmission still a pure natural monopoly? Undersea DC interconnection with a merchant business model, North Sea Distributed storage solutions substituting for transmission upgrades, New York While the bulk of the interconnected system remains a regulated monopoly, competitive solutions emerge at the edges.

13 Distribution often still uses a 1970s regulatory paradigm Centralised fuel production, power and storage Failure to modernise regulation can lead to an undesirable death spiral.

14 Utilities remain essential for a sustainable energy future Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources Surplus heat EV H vehicle 2 Regulation has to provide efficient incentives for distributed resources and create a viable business model for the grid and flexibility.

15 An electric future for transport, this time for real

16 GW GW EV charging, part of the solution or part of the problem 50 Uncontrolled EV charging, no system optimisation Uncontrolled EV charging profile 0

17 GW GW EV charging, part of the solution or part of the problem Optimised EV charging System peak reduction Optimised EV charging profile Reduced net load ramping Charging coincident with PV output 0

18 Net change Trucks: electrification and digitalisation 0% Energy demand GHG emissions Systemic measures -20% -40% Vehicle efficiency Fuel switching -60% -80% Approximate contribution of digital technologies Source: IEA (2017). The Future of Trucks: Implications for energy and the environment. Digital solutions for trucks and logistics could reduce energy use for road freight by 20-25%.

19 A transformative role for markets needs a new regulatory approach. Governments play a key role in shaping strategic infrastructure and enabling investment Real time market signals drive innovation from distribution level to continental scale.

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