Solar Farms using the Tensioned Cable System (TCS) for mounting Solar PV Panels

Transcription

1 Solar Farms using the Tensioned Cable System (TCS) for mounting Solar PV Panels September 6, 2013 Developed by Olympic Energy Systems, Inc th Street Port Townsend, WA (360) OES Solar 412 Dockway Drive Huron, OH Clark Lane, #105 Columbia, MO In cooperation with: Hub City Solar 105 S. Tower Centralia, WA 98531

2 Basic Building Block for Solar Farms US Patent 3,448,390 Issued May 28, 2013 TCS G1 Installation June 2012 in Findlay, OH TCS System Components G1 (Ground) Tensioned Cables PV & Opposing Stanchions End & Mid PV Hangers PV Clamps End & Mid End Cables & Earth Anchors Turnbuckles (End Cables) Pull Tensioners (PV Cables)

3 University of Findlay Findlay, OHIO

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5 30 KW Solar Farm Span TCS G1 (4) PV panels / span x (3) spans String of PV (series-wired) Trench (buried) Re Electrical Conduit 60 feet x 120 feet (Solar Array) Footprint PV Panel = 250 Watts String of PV = 3 KW 10 Strings = 30 KW Produces 36,000 KWh/Y

6 Model Attributes Market Potential R1 Low Labor Cost Removable No Roof Penetrations HW Cost similar to conventional Simple Fab Competitive Residential (must make case for R1) Small Commercial Modest initial Very Good in long term G1 Portable Adaptable Scalable Buildable No Permanent Foundations NICHE for G1 Farmers Land Owners 2.5KW to 10KW 10KW to 100KW+ Very Good (initial and long term) PROJECT ANALYSIS (Market)

7 Model Cost (now) Cost (Near Term) Cost (Long Term) R1 $2.50 $ KW to per Watt installed 10 KW per Watt installed G1 2.5 KW to 10 KW 10 KW to 100 KW + $2.75 to $3.25 per Watt installed (Industry at $4 to $5 per watt) $3.25 to $3.75 per Watt installed (Industry at $5 to $6 per watt) $ per Watt $3 per Watt installed Note: Parity with Grid at $2.00/Watt (Coal & NG plants) $2.50 per Watt installed $2.00 Per Watt installed COST depends mainly on SYSTEM SIZE (Scale) and PV Panel Selection WITHOUT Financial Incentives PROJECT ANALYSIS (Cost)

8 SYSTEM COST Installed Cost, $ / Watt Conventional (Mount) The NICHE TCS G System Size, KW Grid PARITY (Long Term) Grid PARITY (Near Term) - Achieved with very large (utility-scale) systems COST depends mainly on SYSTEM SIZE (Scale) and PV Panel Selection WITHOUT Financial Incentives PROJECT ANALYSIS (Cost Trends)

9 Case for 30 KW Solar Farms The $64,000 Question FARMERS What can they do to earn $64,000? Provide Land ( ¼ acre) Prepare Paperwork (re Incentives and Loan Application) Plant Solar (via a Developer) Put NO MONEY DOWN Take a Bank Loan of $90,000 for a 30 KW system PAY BACK in 7 years (paying off the Bank Loan), with Incentives EARN $64,000 With NO further Incentives, $0.10/KWh for 18 years If electricity prices do not go up for 25 years, then the Farmer achieves a $50,000 profit If electricity prices continue to climb at the current rate of 3% per year, the Farmer achieves a $78,000 profit

10 Case for 30 KW Solar Farms The How to Invest $90,000 Question FARMERS What can they do to make their farming more secure? Provide ¼ acre of land SELF-FINANCE $90,000 - installed cost of 30 KW system NO Bank Interest! Construct a 30 KW solar plant (utility grid-intertied w/ TCS G1) If the Farmer ONLY Accrues Retail Cost Avoidance through 2038 (25 years) GET BACK $90,000 (assuming an average $0.10 per KWh)* System has parity with the grid when utility rate = $0.10 per KWh *(A 2% per year increase in utility rates equates to an average of about $0.10 per KWh over 25 years, from $0.08) i.e., BREAK EVEN WITHOUT any Financial Incentives. But SAVE $77,000 (beyond the initial $90,000) WITH Incentives ($0.08/KWh for 25 years) SAVE $90,000 WITH Incentives ($0.10 per KWh) Thus, Incentives help double your money

11 Case for 30 KW Solar Farms Bank Finance Incentives - Fixed Utility Rate Model Banks see assurances from available subsidies and an assumed fixed utility rate A Bank Loan of $90,000 is paid back with Interest ($27,000) in 7 years from Subsidies and Credits for Solar Electricity Production Subsidies Credits SAVINGS In 7 Years FTC (30%) P-I ($0.15/KWh)x7y RECs ($0.05/KWh)x5y USDA Grant (25%) Similar but scaled results for smaller systems (10 KW -30 KW) RCA (Retail Cost Avoidance) - Credit for Production 2013: $0.08/KWh $117,000 All Subsidies + Electricity Credits (constant $0.08/KWh) $20,000 re Retail Cost Avoidance, 7 years $27,000 re Federal Tax Credit (first year) $35,000 re Production Incentive, capped $12,500 re R E Credits $0.05/KWh, 5 years $22,500 re USDA Rural Development Grant ($27,000) re Bank Interest on 7 year Loan

12 Residential 30 KW Solar Farms USDA Rural Development Energy Efficiency Grant NOT AVAILABLE to Non-Businesses or Non-Farmers Still a Good Investment A Bank Loan of $70,000 is paid back with Interest ($24,500) in 7 years from Subsidies and Credits for Solar Electricity Production, with $20,000 down Subsidies Credits SAVINGS In 7 Years FTC (30%) P-I ($0.15/KWh)x7y RECs ($0.05/KWh)x5y NO USDA Grant 30 KW Solar costs $90,000 RCA (Retail Cost Avoidance) - Credit for Production 2013: $0.08/KWh Similar but scaled results for smaller systems (10 KW -30 KW) * RECs are a market driven tool for incentivizing solar. Without RECs, a bank-financed investor gets $82,000 back in 7 years, so a larger Down Payment would help achieve a 7 year payback. $94,500 All Subsidies + Electricity Credits (constant $0.08/KWh) $20,000 re Retail Cost Avoidance, 7 years $27,000 re Federal Tax Credit (first year) $35,000 re Production Incentive, capped $12,500 re R E Credits $0.05/KWh, 5 years* ($24,500) re Bank Interest on 7 year Loan

13 RESOURCES Personnel Coordination: Jeff Miller with Hub City Solar (Centralia, WA) Implementation/Installation/Training: South Sound Solar Fabrication / Supply: Centralia Supply & Angeles Machine Works Project Management: Olympic Energy Systems (Jonathan A. Clemens) Production Management: Jonathan A. Clemens (Olympic Energy Systems) Support Centralia College Port of Centralia and Port of Chehalis Regional Economic Development Councils For Profit Corporations (TransAlta); Non-Profit Organizations (Growing Places) Professional Associates, incl. Solar Motive (procurement), et al Material / Equipment Pre-Production TCS G1 available to demonstrate and test prototype parts PROJECT PLAN (Resources)

14 STRATEGIES LOCAL EMPHASIS re JOBS, Projects, Programs TRUE SUSTAINABILITY and LOWEST COST SOLAR (without Incentives) COLLABORATION Make Use of Financial Incentives USDA Rural Development Grant (25% pre-approved) Federal Tax Credit (30%) WA State Production Incentive ($0.15/KWh through 2020) WA State Sales Tax Exemption Depreciation of Capital Investment (businesses) System Rebates (where available from utilities) The FARMER is a very good market niche, having the most financial incentives available AND the ability to generate a revenue stream for the farm. TCS portability means a simpler return of the land to growing food. PROJECT PLAN (Strategies)

15 * Per US EIA ** Per IEO FORECASTS GLOBAL Electric Generation to increase 56% between 2010 and 2040, from these Sources: * Renewables up 2.8% per year Natural Gas and Nuclear up 2.5% per year Coal up 1.8% per year (mostly in Developing World and China) WORLD NET Electric Generation * Demand for electricity 20.2 Trillion KWh Trillion KWh 2040 will double in 30 years! 5.4T KWh added RE: 52% from Hydro, 28% from Wind, 20% from Solar etc. WORLD Coal Consumption to rise about 1.3% per year through 2040 * 75% of Coal Consumption in 2040 expected from China, US, and India (up from 70% in 2010) WORLD CO2 Emissions ** 31.2 Billion Metric Tons of CO2 in Billion Metric Tons of CO2 in 2040 [Up 46%] Liquid Fuels 14.7B NG 10.1B Coal 20.6B ELECTRICITY (Sources of Energy)

16 WHY the TCS? LOW TECH Design means LOCAL JOBS NOW The design is based on Principles, not High Technology, as part of a new DESIGN SCIENCE around tensioning NEED only conventional fabrication skills, the use of mostly off the shelf components and materials, and standard shop equipment MAKE those items unique to the TCS mounting system (Stanchions etc.) BUY those items not reinvented but applied to the TCS (Nuts & Bolts etc.) HIGH TECH Production Potential means FUTURE LOCAL JOBS MARKET CAPTURE IS HIGH in The Niche (10 KW to 100 KW Range) LOW COST Shipping (especially to foreign markets) GROWTH PROVISIONING by customers enabled by the TCS scalability LEASING (roofs from and equipment to customers) enabled by the TCS portability LESS EXPOSURE to Future Cost Increases due to low overall material content Lower CO2 Emissions due to the LOW Embodied Energy (combats Climate Change) LOWEST COST TRULY SUSTAINABLE MOST BENEFIT FARMERS, with no money down, obtain a revenue stream for 20 years Bank financed loan paid back in less than 7 years 30 KW System Size represents a Sweet Spot niche