NURZAT MYRSALIEVA. Distributed solar technologies: trends and scenarios in the Mediterranean Region

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1 NURZAT MYRSALIEVA Distributed solar technologies: trends and scenarios in the Mediterranean Region

2 About RCREEE Independent regional inter-governmental organization 16 member states National focal point in every country In operation since 2008 Headquartered in Cairo, Egypt

3 Region Overview

4 Primary Energy Consumption Natural Gas 50.0% Natural Gas 41.5% Coal 1.0% Hydro Electricity 2.1% Coal 0.7% Hydro Electricity 0.8% Oil 55.5% Oil 48.5% 6,825,000 boe/day 12,908,000 boe/day Source: OAPEC Annual Statistical Report (2005, 2012)

5 Renewable Energy Installed Capacity Non-Renewable 94.78% Renewable 5.22% 0,15% 0,79% 4,25% 0.02% Solar Wind Hydro Other

6 Energy Dependence All Arab Dependence Independence Mauritania Djibouti Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia Egypt Syria Yemen Libya Bahrain UAE Saudi Arabia Algeria Iraq Qatar Sudan Kuwait Oman

7 Electricity Prices: Residential

8 Electricity Prices: Commercial

9 Energy Prices: Diesel (USD/litre)

10 Energy Subsidy Reforms 2014

11 Supporting Policies for Distributed Solar IPP Public Competitive Bidding Direct Proposal Submission Feed-in Tariffs Net Metering EPC Contracting At least 5 countries 2 countries 3 countries 4 countries More than 15 countries

12 Electricity Fuel Mix 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Natural Gas Heavy Fuel Diesel 7 million 2.8 GW 4% 600 MW 95% Population Peak load in 2012 Peak Load Growth 2020 Solar Target Of Energy needs imported Cost of Electricity Produced Total Cost per kwh ($) Fuel Cost per kwh ($) Direct Proposal Submission Round 1: 13 PPAs concluded at $0.17 per kwh for 210MW aggregate PV capacity Round 2: 47 companies have been prequalified to submit proposal for 200 MW aggregate PV capacity

13 FiT enacted on April Ministerial Decree guarantees the purchase of generated wind and PV electricity at preferential pricing for 20 years Full Load Hours Phase 1 (Year 1 to 5) 1-5 MW >5MW Phase 2 (Year 6-20) Phase 1 (Year 1 to 5) Public projects (EPC) 348 MW under construction developed by state-owned SKTM IPP Projects through FiT Program The Regulator CREG is already accepting applications for FiT Phase 2 (Year 6-20) $0.20 $0.25 $0.16 $ $0.20 $0.23 $0.16 $ $0.20 $0.22 $0.16 $ $0.20 $0.20 $0.16 $ $0.20 $0.18 $0.16 $ $0.20 $0.16 $0.16 $0.13 >1725 $0.20 $0.15 $0.16 $ million 9.8 GW 13.6% 2800 MW 9 th Population Peak load in 2012 Peak Load Growth 2030 Solar PV Target Largest producer of NG

14 Feed-in Tariff Enacted in October, 2014 for Wind and PV. The tariff level for PV is from Pt (USD ) per kwh The tariff for wind - flat tariff of Pt (USD ) per kwh during the first five years IPP Public Competitive Bidding 250 MW wind project under tendering 80 million 27 GW 10.3% Population Peak load in 2012/13 Peak Load Growth Current Installed Capacity: Wind 610 MW PV 15 MW CSP 20 MW Projects under construction: More than 630 MW of projects under construction 3500 MW 2027 Solar Target

15 Utility-Scale Markets to Watch

16 Distributed Generation Markets

17 Source: Mustakbbal Clean Tech On-grid Residential and Houses of Worship PV Solar Rooftop National Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Palestine Action (NEEREA) Solar Initiative Aims offers to low-interest achieve a target loans of as 5 low as 0.6% with a MW repayment of solar period rooftops of as by long 2015 as 14 years for Net-metering 47% decentralized capital combined subsidy PV systems with grant and bank loan 15 MW of PV installed Green Mosque Initiative The Ministry of Islamic Affairs and Ministry of Energy signed an agreement to covert to solar energy mosques Phase 1 will cover 1000 mosques

18 RE Self Consumption in Industrial and Commercial Sectors (On-Grid and Off-Grid) Net-metering and high retail electricity prices PV installation for selfconsumption already at grid parity, today more than 15 MW have been installed

19 Source: Azuri Solutions Off-grid Rural and Peri-Urban Electrification Rural Electrification Project Install 1.1 million individual solar rooftops in rural areas between

20 The Way Forward

21 Barriers to Scale Up of Investment Low awareness Few success stories Insufficient information Few financing options Weak local capacity At all levels of the existence of these commercially viable opportunities To demonstrate the potential of these opportunities About the risk profiles and potential benefits of these technologies That meet the three A s (Appropriate, accessible, affordable) To assess markets and create business models

22 ARAB FUTURE ENERGY INDEX 2015

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24 Source: Lorentz Solar Pumps Solar PV Pumping Solar irrigation program 400 million dirham ( 35 million) 50% capex subsidy up to Dirham ( 6 670) per project PV systems per year Cumulative capacity of 15 MWp