BREAKTHROUGHS IN SOLAR POWER

Transcription

1 /// / / / / / / / BREAKTHROUGHS IN SOLAR POWER IT S NOT JUST ABOUT TECHNOLOGY ANY MORE JENNY CHASE

2 THE CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices experience curve Chinese c-si module prices Note: In 2011 dollars, adjusted for inflation at the US CPI Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

3 THE CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) R 2 = ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices experience curve Chinese c-si module prices Note: In 2011 dollars, adjusted for inflation at the US CPI Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

4 THE CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices experience curve Chinese c-si module prices Note: In 2011 dollars, adjusted for inflation at the US CPI Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

5 THE CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices experience curve Chinese c-si module prices Note: In 2011 dollars, adjusted for inflation at the US CPI Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

6 THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices experience curve Chinese c-si module prices First Solar Note: In 2011 dollars, adjusted for inflation at the US CPI Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

7 NEW JERSEY, US 1954

8 AVERAGE EFFICIENCY OF PV CELLS BY TYPE OF MANUFACTURER AND TECHNOLOGY (%) 18.2% 18.1% 18.2% 17.5% 17.7% 17.2% 16.8% 16.7% 16.8% 16.2% 16.3% 16.1% Average all mono China mono International mono Average all multi China multi International multi Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

9 DIESEL AND PV GENERATION FACTS AND FIGURES 700m $0.40/kWh 150GW 660GW 860GWh 80% People who pay $1/litre+ for diesel fuel Fuel cost of diesel electricity at $1/litre Size of off-grid diesel generation market PV capacity to replace that diesel market Of batteries to make PV storage systems % of lead acid battery manufacturing capacity 860GWh represents Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Picture: Caterpillar

10 INCREMENTAL IRR ON HYBRID SYSTEM REPLACING DIESEL GENERATION AND REGIONAL DIESEL PRICES IRR 30% 25% $/litre Africa $/litre LatAm $/litre SE Asia Real IRR 20% 15% 10% Nominal emerging economy lending rate Reliance Power (India) cost of capital 5% 0% -5% $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 Assumptions: hybrid diesel generator operates for 12.5 hours per day on 50 cloudy days per year, battery bank sized to night time energy consumption, all prices are assumed constant in real terms $/litre diesel Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, market player interviews, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)

11 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICE VERSUS LCOE $/kwh More sun kwh/kw/year Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

12 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICE VERSUS LCOE $/kwh More sun LCOE kwh/kw/year Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. $3.01/W capex assumed for 2012, $2/W for Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

13 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICE VERSUS LCOE $/kwh More sun LCOE 2015 LCOE kwh/kw/year Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. $3.01/W capex assumed for 2012, $2/W for Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

14 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICE VERSUS LCOE $/kwh 0.40 Denmark More sun 0.35 Germany Italy Spain Hawaii 0.20 Australia LCOE 2015 LCOE 0.00 Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. $3.01/W capex assumed for 2012, $2/W for GW Potential residential EMEA ASOC AMER kwh/kw/year PV market Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

15 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICE VERSUS LCOE $/kwh 0.40 Denmark More sun 0.35 Germany Japan Italy France Spain Brazil Australia Hawaii 0.15 Turkey California 2012 LCOE LCOE Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. $3.01/W capex assumed for 2012, $2/W for GW Potential residential EMEA ASOC AMER kwh/kw/year PV market Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

16 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY RESIDENTIAL POWER PRICE VERSUS LCOE $/kwh 0.40 Denmark More sun 0.35 Germany Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. $3.01/W capex assumed for 2012, $2/W for United Kingdom Russia Japan Italy France Spain Brazil Australia Hawaii Turkey South Korea California New Jersey North India Israel Argentina Canada Texas North China Mexico South South India China Saudi Arabia Indonesia 2012 LCOE 2015 LCOE GW Potential residential EMEA ASOC AMER kwh/kw/year PV market Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

17 SUMMARY The past six years have seen tremendous progress in solar power This has been mainly by a 30-year-old technology, crystalline silicon Crystalline silicon continues to make incremental improvements to all aspects of the technology The breakthroughs are probably elsewhere Improving economics of solar will open up new opportunities

18 INNOVATING AROUND CHEAP SOLAR MODULES Inverters Balance of system components Racking and mounting structures Better installation team management Home energy management systems Financing innovations Innovations in distribution, particularly in the developing world Monitoring and security software to prevent theft or allow mobile payments Cheaper operation and maintenance contracts Customer sourcing and qualifying Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Pictures: TerraSmart, SolarEdge, Conergy

19 /// / / / / / / /