ALBERTA SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK. CanSIA Solar West 10 May 2017

Transcription

1 ALBERTA SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK CanSIA Solar West 10 May 2017

2 Current Alberta Based Solar Programs 2 Residential and Commercial Solar Program Alberta Municipal Solar Program On-Farm Solar PV Program (Growing Forward 2) Renewable Electricity Program Alberta Request for Information (135,000 MWh) Alberta Indigenous Solar Program

3 Purpose of the Study By 2030, what size could the solar market be in Alberta? (System Level Approach) By 2030, what size could each market segment be in Alberta? (Market Segment Approach) Approaches System Level Approach Market Segment Approach A B C D E

4 Study Conclusions 4 6% of electricity from solar PV by 2030 is reasonable Policy and regulatory design will have major impacts on growth The residential sector is important for the Solar PV industry Utility scale solar PV will be the key factor for growth Three market segments are directly tied to microgeneration regulations Structual limitations may affect the commercial/industrial market segment Solar PV Ready requirements are needed in the commercial/industrial market segment Community based solar has a large potential (connecting at distribution level voltage)

5 How Alberta compares to Ontario 5 Alberta Ontario Factor Population 4.28 million million 3x Number of singledetached houses (2011 Statistics Canada) Grid connected peak demand 883,265 2,718,880 3x 11,229 MW 20,836 MW 1.8x Installed Solar 16 MW DC 2,227 MW DC 139x Ontario market is significantly larger than Alberta in population, residences, grid connected peak demand. Alberta s peak demand is driven by industrial rather than residential load.

6 6 System Level Approach A 3% of electricity supplied by solar PV B 6% of electricity supplied by solar PV

7 7 Analysis reveals that Solar PV could supply 6% of Alberta s Load by 2030 (up to 4.3 GW DC ) 19% 19% Installed Solar PV as a Percentage of Total Generating Capacity 16% 16% Installed Solar PV Capacity by 2030 % of Installed Total Capacity 8% Ontario % California % 8% 8% North Carolina Arizona Alberta A Alberta B % 8% 8% A 3% of Load B 6% of Load (MW AC ) (MW DC ) 1,768 2,130 8% 3,536 4,260 16% Ontario California North Carolina Arizona Alberta A Alberta B

8 8 Installed Solar PV per Capita Comparison With Other Jurisdictions Alberta B Alberta A Germany Arizona North Carolina California Ontario Alberta has 4 watts per person 2016 Comparison Solar PV per capita ranges between watts per person 2030 Alberta A and B range between watts per person.

9 Implications of achieving 6% of energy from Solar PV 9 The analysis of the net-load for B in 2030 demonstrates Ramping requirements for conventional generation compared to the AESO Long Term Outlook scenario (no solar PV generation) increased in the winter (2x) similar in the summer Low risk for overgeneration and curtailment during summer or winter Solar generation contributes 14 percent of AESO load in the winter, 23 percent of AESO load in the summer at peak solar production.

10 10 Market Segment Approach C low growth rates based on announced programs D double the low growth rates E US growth rates

11 Market Segment Approach 11 Market Segments Microgeneration Regulation Community - Distribution Connected Utility Scale Residential Commercial/ Industrial Farm Five Market Segments identified Three fit under the current microgeneration regulation

12 Microgeneration Regulations in Alberta Affects Project Economics, Regulations are Designed to Match Load 12 Size Electricity Pricing of net production Wholesale Project over pricing, with time 5 MW ac of day pricing Service Charges No reduction in service charges Notes Not considered micro-generation, >5 MWac Electrical Panel M M MWac Total Production Project size between 150kW ac to 5 MW ac Wholesale Pricing, with hourly pricing Ability to reduce service charges Large Microgeneration Electrica l Panel M Up to 150 kwac Net Production Project less than 150kW ac Retail Pricing Ability to reduce service charges Small Microgeneration 12 Electrical Panel M Net Production

13 Microgeneration Market Potential (2,454 MW DC ) - after meeting structural, shading and ownership requirements Market Segment in 2030 Residential Market Commercial/Industrial Market Total number of potential buildings 315,000 residential rooftops 3,000 commercial/ industrial buildings Market Size Potential 1,890 MW DC 302 MW DC Farm Market 18,500 farms 262 MW DC TOTAL 2,454 MW DC

14 Residential Market Deployment by C D E 99 MW AC (120 MW DC ) 2.6% of all residences 172 MW AC (207 MW DC ) 4.5% of all residences 470 MW AC (566 MW DC ) 12% of all residences

15 Commercial Market Deployment by C D E 99 MW AC (120 MW DC ) 4% of all commercial/industrial buildings 172 MW AC (207 MW DC ) 7% of all commercial/industrial buildings 178 MW AC (214 MW DC ) 7% of all commercial/industrial buildings

16 Farm Market Deployment by C D E 12 MW AC (14 MW DC ) 1% of all farms 21 MW AC (25 MW DC ) 2% of all farms 9 MW AC (11 MW DC ) 1% of all farms

17 Community Market Deployment by C D E 174 MW AC (210 MW DC ) 311 MW AC (375 MW DC ) 322 MW AC (388 MW DC )

18 Utility Solar Market Deployment by C D E 996 MW AC (1200 MW DC ) 1909 MW AC (2300 MW DC ) 1727 MW AC (2080 MW DC )

19 Market Segment Analysis Results of C, D, E 19 Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC ) Total Projected Solar Capacity in C, D, and E 2, Year C D E Significant range in deployment based on C,D,E (1379 to 2706) US based growth rates ( E) has the highest deployment rate Current based policies, if continued, have the lowest deployment rates

20 Market Segment Makeup 20 Utility 74% Residential 7% Commercial / Industrial 7% Farm 1% Community Generation 11% Utility scale sector dominates C, D, E Community generation has largest uncertainty in deployment, since current lack of policy

21 21 Summary of the Study

22 22 Barriers to Solar Development and Policies to Address Them Barrier Technical - Commercial/Industrial roof suitability Economic - Project economics Commercial - Access to low cost financing Organizational - Development competencies and industry capability Policy - Lack of programs for Community Solar Policies Changes to micro-gen to allow significant export volumes and more flexible ownership structures, require new commercial construction to be solar ready Incentives, Changes to Net Metering regulations, reduction of permitting costs, Improve financing access for home and commercial building owners, continue REP with solar carve-out, mandated RPS for industrial consumers and electricity retailers. Training programs, simplified permitting process Design a policy and regulatory framework for Community Solar

23 Summary of the s 23 Approach Year Installed Solar PV Capacity (MW AC ) Installed Solar PV Capacity (MW DC ) System Level A 1,768 2,130 B 3,536 4,260 Market Segment C 1,379 1,662 D 2,584 3,114 E 2,706 3,260 Solar development Could exceed 4 GW DC by 2030 Not clear if the System Level approach is optimistic or the Market Segment approach is conservative.

24 Study Conclusions 24 6% of electricity from solar PV by 2030 is reasonable Policy and regulatory design will have major impacts on growth The residential sector is important for the Solar PV industry Utility scale solar PV will be the key factor for growth Three market segments are directly tied to microgeneration regulations Structual limitations may affect the commercial/industrial market segment Solar PV Ready requirements are needed in the commercial/industrial market segment Community based solar has a large potential (connecting at distribution level voltage)

25 Thank You Paula McGarrigle, Managing Director, Solas Energy Consulting

26 26 APPENDIX

27 Winter Net Load analysis Ramps are manageable 27 Energy (MW) Winter Net Load Analysis (Wind and Solar) - B Winter AIL Minus Wind Winter Net Load (Variable) Curve Winter Average Solar Generation Net Load in B requires increased rampdown in mornings, increased ramp-up in evenings Hour

28 Summer Net Load analysis Ramps are manageable 28 Energy (MW) Summer Net Load Analysis (Wind and Solar) - B Summer AIL Minus Wind Summer Net Load (Variable) Curve Summer Average Solar Generation B Summer ramps are less demanding than winter ramps due to resource profile Hour

29 29 Summer Net Load analysis Comparison of System Ramping Requirements With and Without Solar MW/hour Winter 2030 Generation Ramping Requirements am 9am 4pm 10pm 11pm Time of Day -449 MW/hour Summer 2030 Generation Ramping Requirements am 9am 4pm 9pm 10pm 11pm -438 Time of Day -409 AESO (Zero Solar) B AESO (Zero Solar) B Winter ramping requirements with solar differ in timing and magnitude compared to no-solar scenario. Summer ramping requirements are similar to no-solar scenario.

30 30 Market Segment Analysis Comparison of Assumptions Market Sector C D: Double C E: US installation growth rate Residential 8 MW DC /year 16 MW DC /year 29% / year Commercial / Industrial 8 MW DC /year 16 MW DC /year 12% / year Farm 1 MW DC /year 2 MW DC /year 12% / year Community 15 MW DC / year 30 MW DC / year 12% / year Utility 100 MW DC / year 200 MW DC / year 27% / year

31 Market Segment Analysis Growth over Time 31 Solar Capacity - C Projected Growth - D 3000 Utility Scale 3000 Utility Scale 2500 Community 2500 Community Farm Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC) Farm Commercial/Industrial Residential Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC ) Commercial/Industrial Residential Year Year Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC) Utility Scale Community Farm Commercial/Industrial Residential Projected Growth - E Utility scale development dominates capacity in all scenarios Residential plays a larger role in E Year