Applied Materials is accelerating Solar

Transcription

1 Applied Materials is accelerating Solar Romain Beau de Lomenie Thin Film Module Group Head Solar Business Group Applied Materials, Inc. DERBI Conference, Perpignan, France June 6 th 2008

2 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including those relating to Applied Materials growth opportunities, product capabilities. acquired businesses, cost-per-watt-reduction strategy, efficiency roadmap, solar contracts, and financial goals. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements, including but not limited to: demand for solar products, which is subject to many factors, including global economic and market conditions, government policies and incentives relating to renewable energy, technological innovations, the cost of competing sources of energy, and evolving industry standards; the performance of acquired businesses; Applied s ability to (i) successfully develop, deliver and support its broad range of products and expand its markets and develop new markets, (ii) effectively manage its resources and production capability, (iv) accurately predict the characteristics of, and capitalize on opportunities in, emerging markets, and (v) attract and retain key employees; and other risks described in Applied s SEC filings. All forwardlooking statements are based on management s estimates, projections and assumptions as of February 20, 2008, and Applied undertakes no obligation to update any such statements. 2

3 Applied Materials Overview Founded Revenue (Fiscal 2007) Worldwide Employees Worldwide Locations RD&E Investment (FY 03 FY 07) Service Installed Base Oct 1967 in Mountain View, California $9.73 Billion ~ 14, countries, over 100 locations Owned manufacturing in Germany, Israel, Switzerland, Taiwan, US Development in North America, Asia, Europe and Israel $5.1 Billion ~ 3,500 field engineers > 19,000 Silicon IC systems > 600 Flat Panel Display systems > 500 Glass and Web Coating Systems 3

4 Applied Materials Capabilities Large Area Platforms Automation PECVD 5.7 ATON MULTIWEB Process Technology Service & Support Integration 4

5 Rapidly approaching the tipping point Installed system price in $/kwh (2007 $) Subsidy free 400 TWh or ~ $100B of electricity is sold per year in this price range* 2007 CA retail rates Peak Rate Avg Rate KEY ASSUMPTIONS No incentives Sun hours = 1,800 Module lifetime = 25 years Finance term = 25 years Cost of capital = 4% Electrical system loss = 20% Efficiency degradation = 0.5%/yr Inverter lifetime = 10 years Cost reduction beyond 2010 = 6%/yr Photon Consulting: Solar Annual, 2007, Solar Verlag, Gmbh

6 Utility Scale PV electricity 0.50 Installed system price $/kwh (2007 $) Mid-Size Installations (no ITC) Peak Rate Avg Rate Price below which PV goes mainstream ($ $3.00 $/Wp) Assumptions: PV Cost reduction past 2010 = 6% per year Utility rate increase = 3% per year 6

7 Extending Cost Reduction Focus to Solar FIRST THEN NOW Cost per transistor trillion 1,400,000 trillion 10 cents 5 nano-dollars 20,000,000x Cost Reduction Source: SIA, IC Knowledge LLC Cost per area million/m 2 25 million /m2 $30,000/m 2 $1,500/m 2 20x Cost Reduction Source: Display Search, Nikkei BP, Applied Materials Cost per watt 7

8 Solar Manufacturing Solutions Strategy Crystalline Silicon Thin Film Preferred for residential applications Preferred for large scale applications Area limited applications, higher cost, higher efficiency Utility scale applications, lower cost, lower efficiency Competes mostly with electricity retail price Competes mostly with electricity wholesale price Select process step participation: cost enablers Complete production line solution w/ 5.7m2 standard Thin wafers, automation, productivity and yield Lowest cost of production and installation Drive to Cost per watt parity into more markets 8

9 c-si: Focus on High Value Processes Photo Step Names Poly Silicon Ingots Wafering Saw Damage Emitter Formation Cell Production / Manufacture Passivation Metallization Edge Isolation Inspect / Test Laminate Module Installation Applied s c-si Defined TAM Thin Wafer Processing High Productivity Systems Cell Efficient Processes Low Manufacturing Cost Applied s 2008 c-si SAM ~42% of c-si TAM 9

10 Scaling up: SunFab Thin Film Line Complete production line of world largest 5.7m2 largest PV modules Thin film silicon glass-pvb-glass module design 50MW~75MW single line capacity w/ multi-line GW capacity design 2010 goals: $1.00/Wp production efficiency > 20% reduction in BOS cost with large size and bonded rail design 10

11 Going Big LCD industry leading world largest PECVD platform 11

12 $1/Wp at 10% efficiency within reach Glass TCO a-si µc-si Back Contact Current initial tandem cell efficiency: 11.6% $/Wp Current steady state module aperture efficiency: 9.3% Current cell uniformity over 5.7m 2 substrate: 7% (rel.) TCO* tool qualification Q3 08 On track for 10% + and <$1/W goals * Transparent Conductive Oxide 12

13 Accelerating Solar Installed system price in $/kwh (2007 $) Mid-Size Installations (no ITC) Large 5.7m2 TFS Installations (no ITC) Peak Rate Avg Rate Assumptions: PV Cost reduction past 2010 = 6% per year Utility rate increase = 3% per year 13

14 Summary Applied Materials is extending its cost reduction focus to Solar csi: residential market, strong portfolio in cost enabling steps, focus on thin wafers and automation Thin film: utility scale market, Sunfab enables PV to go mainstream by 2010 Sunfab sets the 5.7m2 standard, allowing rapid adoption and scaling globally with > 2GW of announced capacity sold Applied Materials is accelerating Solar! 14

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16 Applied Materials Reporting Segments Silicon Manufacture and sale of equipment to fabricate semiconductor chips Fab Solutions Broad range of products 1 to maintain, service and optimize customers semiconductor fabs Display Design, manufacture, sale, and services of equipment used to make flat panel displays Adjacent Technologies Design, manufacture, sale and service of equipment used to fabricate solar cells, flexible electronics and energy-efficient glass 16

17 World Electricity Production Forecast ( ) 100,000 Total Electricity Production Equivalent Solar GWp 2 TWh 1 /Year 10,000 1, Potential of Existing US Rooftops (GWp) US China India Solar Electricity Production (TWh) 10% Total 1% Total California 1 Million Roofs F 2020F 2030F 2040F ~5,000 ~500 Est. CAGR% ~50 Total Electricity Production 2.5% (increase of 25,400TWh) Solar Energy Production 21% (increase of 6,000TWh) ~5 Current solar capacity 1 TWh = Terrawatt-hour = 1 Billion Kilowatt-hours 2 GWp = Gigawatt-peak, assuming average hours or sunshine Source: Solar Generation and IEA-PVPS = Consumption in labeled country/state 17