DEVELOPING TALENT GROWING VENTURES OPENING MARKETS. CCRE Policy Forum. Paul Murphy, Nov 24, Our Future Matters

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1 CCRE Policy Forum Paul Murphy, Nov 24, 2016

2 The Advanced Energy Centre s Mission is to Foster the adoption of innovative energy technologies in Ontario and Canada Leverage those successes and experiences into international energy markets Matters

3 ENERGY DATA ACCESS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ENERGY UTILITY TRANSFORMATION 13

4 UTILITY TRANSFORMATION: NEWTONIAN SHIFT SIMULATION Help utilities understand the pace of change in the energy sector, and inform intentional decisions to capture value and opportunities in a changing energy landscape.

5 UTILITY TRANSFORMATION: STRATEGIC FORESIGHT Help utilities understand the pace of change in the energy sector, and inform intentional decisions to capture value and opportunities in a changing energy landscape.

6 THE FUTURE OF MICROGRIDS IN ONTARIO 6 / 2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING LTD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

7 RESIDENTIAL PROFILE AND USE CASE Customer Profile 18,000 kwh, large residential home (equivalent to a th percentile customer) Microgrid Use Case Solar used to offset electricity consumption, and for net metering Battery used for TOU arbitrage - Battery capacity bid into DR auctions and OR market Battery, controller, and switchgear provide run-through resiliency Hourly Energy (kwh) Core Microgrid Characteristics Storage 3 kw (6 kwh) Base Usage Grid Purchased Solar 5 kw Solar Avg. Load Battery 2 kw Battery Chg Off-Peak Mid- On-Peak Peak Load 8 kw 7 / 2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING LTD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

8 RESIDENTIAL COST-BENEFIT RESULTS Based on a desired payback of 8 years, residential microgrids are not expected to be economic in the near term, but will become economic in the long term Residential microgrids may be cost effective if other non-economic factors are taken into account - the value gap to make microgrids economic today is $1,900 per year The value gap may be filled by other economic and non-economic benefits: Reliability (willingness to pay) Utility or grid services Virtual Power Plants (VPP) EV integration Technology attractiveness $ per year Costs and Benefits 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Value gap = $1,900 per year ,460 Value gap = $300 per year ,810 Net Benefit = $400 per year ,130 Today Energy Ancillary Arbitrage 8 / 2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING LTD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

9 COMMUNITY - PROFILE AND USE CASE Customer Profile 12 MW distribution feeder load serving a mix of residential apartments and office space Microgrid Use Case Solar used for off-setting electricity consumption, peak reduction, and battery charging Battery used primarily to reduce local distribution peak - Used to bid into OR market and DR auction, and - Battery, controller, and switchgear provide run-through resiliency (key emergency and disaster resiliency) Demand Response (DR) loads are also used to reduce the local distribution peak Hourly Energy (kwh) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Core Microgrid Characteristics 0 Storage 7.5 MW 15 MWh Base Usage Battery Chg DR 1.0 MW Solar 2.0 MW Peak Solar Avg. Load 5 MW DR Grid Purchased Peak Load 10 MW Battery / 2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING LTD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

10 COMMUNITY COST-BENEFIT RESULTS Based on a desired payback of 10 years, the economics of community microgrids may not be positive today but are strong in the near and long term The value gap needed to make community microgrids economic today is $0.2 million per year high value T&D upgrade deferrals and reliability benefits can close the value gap T&D Marginal Costs High value T&D deferrals may be sufficient to justify microgrid deployment today (higher than $600/kW) $M per year Costs and Benefits Value gap = $0.2M per year Net Benefit = $1.2M per year Net Benefit = $1.9M per year Source: PG&E/EPRI - Today T&D Deferral Ancillary Services Avoided Gen Cap. Avoided Energy Costs 10 / 2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING LTD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

11 EDA s LDC of the Future Survey The overwhelming majority of LDC execs say that their LDC is extremely well prepared to meet the challenges and opportunities of the future. Most LDCs agree that innovation is their driving principle and that the LDCs of the future will need to be high-tech and innovative. LDCs view several emerging technologies as being potentially transformational for the electricity distribution industry. With off-grid energy generation already in the crosshairs, LDCs also had strong opinions about different revenue models to turn to if customers choose to go off-grid. 11

12 LDCs are ready to embrace micro grids Unprompted, half of LDCs cited energy storage systems/batteries as a new and emerging technology that would be transformative for distributors. Nearly as many mention micro grids and other off grid energy generation. Electric vehicles and the infrastructure for them round out the top three. Energy storage systems/ batteries Distributed energy generation systems/ off grid energy generation/ micro grids Electric vehicles/ infrastructure for electric cars/ electric charging stations Renewable energy generation systems (solar, wind, etc.) Smart grid/ use of information technology in relation to the electrical grid Smart homes/ interconnected devices/ improved metering Concerns about costs/ attempts to make it more cost effective Improved efficiency/ energy conservation Concerns about (information) security/ protection/ vulnerabilities/ exploits (drown, etc.) Fuel cells Source: EDA s LDC of the Future Survey, 2016 Other None Don't know 2% 4% 4% 6% 8% 8% 8% 10% 12% 12% 20% 45% 51%

13 LDCs would prefer to keep micro grid initiatives within the utility Ownership of Transformer Stations Smart Grid initiatives Load Management (Demand Management) Micro Grid initiatives Transmission ownership of greater than 50 kilovolts GIS (Geographical Information System) Services Financing (On Bill Financing) Electric vehicle charging infrastructure Energy storage Energy audits Streetlighting services Cloud computing Other behind the meter services Owning renewable generation Water system management or ownership Owning non renewable generation District heating Waste water system management or ownership Water heater rentals Geothermal solutions Telecommunications Fibre optics 92% 87% 80% 77% 75% 71% 66% 61% 61% 56% 45% 38% 36% 31% 24% 23% 22% 19% 18% 18% 17% 12% 21% 21% 29% 31% 36% 37% 42% 52% 63% 57% 65% 73% 71% 75% 78% 82% 79% 83% 89% 13% 18% 5% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 7% 4% 3% 6% 3% 4% 3% Within the LDC In an affiliated company Don't know Source: EDA s LDC of the Future Survey, 2016