Energy perspectives and new energy solutions

Transcription

1 Energy perspectives and new energy solutions Energy seminar Ås, 3rd of March 2017 Classification: Open 3 mars 20 Statoil ASA

2 Outline Personal introduction Statoil s strategy Energy perspectives New energy solutions 2 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

3 Personal introduction Mathias Vikøren Mo Master in Petroleum Technology from NTNU Started in Statoil in 2012 Worked for 4 years as reservoir engineer on the Troll field Working with offshore wind projects since Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

4 4 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

5 5 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

6 Sharpened strategy: Building a profitable new energy business Capex potential per year USD million ~ Dudgeon Industrial approach Value driven ¹ Growth opportunities Leverage core competence From subsidies to markets Scale & technology reduce costs 9-11% return range (real) Access to long-term projects Cash flow resilience 15-20% of capex in Offshore wind and other options Low-carbon solutions 1 Indicative for offshore wind projects 2 Indicative, based on potential future corporate portfolio. 6 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

7 Energy Perspectives 2016 Macro and market outlook to Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

8 Significant uncertainty and large changes this calls for using scenarios Supply and demand factors (indexed 2002=100) US shale oil prod. Chinese int. tourists New Chinese cars Chinese air passengers Solar capacity (rhs) Source: The Economist Source: DOE, CEIC, IEA, IRENA 8 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

9 Several futures are possible... Reform 2013 Renewal But the world is twice as rich, needs more energy, and is more efficient Rivalry 4 World GDP growth rates % H Reform Renewal Rivalry 500 World GDP and energy demand Index, 1990=100 Reform Renewal Rivalry '90-'00'00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-' Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

10 Reform 2040 Renewal 2040 Rivalry Reform 2040 Renewal 2040 Rivalry Speeding up the change in global energy mix with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % New RES Biofuels and waste Hydro Nuclear Gas Bn toe % Oil Solid fuels 0 Historical 10 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

11 CO 2 emissions determined by demand and mix Climate policies: Driving Renewal, contributing to Reform World CO 2 emissions Billion tons Rivalry 2040 NP World CO 2 emissions Billion tons Rest of world India China OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD Americas Reform Renewal Statoil IEA 0 Ref Ren Riv Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 11 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

12 Oil and gas are here to stay for decades Oil demand*, and supply from existing fields Million barrels per day Production Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a. Demand range Decline range Gas demand, and supply from existing fields Billion cubic meters Production Demand range Decline range Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a. Source: IEA (WEO 2015), Statoil (projections) 12 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

13 Build a profitable renewables business OFFSHORE WIND Develop new lower-carbon business opportunities for Statoil s core products NCS CO2 STORAGE SOLAR CO2 use /IOR ENERGY STORAGE HYDROGEN 13 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

14 Providing offshore wind to >1M homes Playing to our strengths Offshore wind projects currently in progress delivering >1100 MW, and potential for >5m homes North West Europe United States East Coast Japan US West Coast Hywind demo Sheringham Shoal Dudgeon Hywind pilot Arkona Dogger Bank New York Hywind large scale Attractive market In operation In operation In development In development In development Consented 2.3 MW 317 MW 402 MW 30 MW 385 MW 4 x 1.2 GW Auction won 1-2 GW 2024-? * All capacity figures on 100% basis 14 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

15 High activity level in 2017 SHERINGHAM SHOAL - UK DUDGEON - UK ARKONA - GERMANY HYWIND SCOTLAND Statoil taking operatorship role in 2017 On time and well under budget On cost and schedule for 2019 start-up Assembly at Stord in June 2017 Seeking improved opex through synergies with Dudgeon WTG installation started January 2017 June installation of first monopoles 15 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

16 Enabling large-scale floating wind production 16 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

17 Hywind Scotland 17 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

18 Expanding the potential floating wind market Current projects Potential future markets Long-term potential prospects Illustrative only, based on water depths, wind conditions and potential large markets 18 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

19 Statoil Energy Ventures launched in 2016 Investing USD 200M in green energy growth Support Test Explore Onshore small-scale wind turbine leases Largest EV charging network in the US Solar technology increasing efficiency n solar cells Energy storage asset developer 19 Classification: Open 3 mars 2017 Statoil ASA

20 Thank you!?