The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Dr. David Khemakhem Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia March 25, 213 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Energy Outlook Model 1 countries 15 demand sectors 2 fuel types technology & policy ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

3 CO 2 Policies 23 CO 2 Proxy Cost ~ 6 $/ton ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

4 CO 2 Policies 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 15 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

5 Global fundamentals

6 Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile Billion 2. OECD China India Africa Age Age Age Source: World Bank

7 Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Trillion 25$ 125 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs AAGR % AAGR % 1 World 2.8% Other Non OECD 3.9% 1 World 1.% Energy Saved ~5 75 China 5.6% 75 5 Other OECD 1.8% United States 2.3% ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

8 Middle East Energy Trends Population Billion.8 Average Growth / Yr % GDP Trillion 25$ 4 Average Growth / Yr % Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs 8 Average Growth / Yr % ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

9 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

10 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs % % Average Growth / Yr % 1.% %.4% % 1.8% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

11 Middle East Energy Demand By Country Quadrillion BTUs 6 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 6 By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Other 5 Res/Comm 4 Rest of Middle East Iraq 4 Gas 4 Industrial 3 UAE Saudi Arabia 2 2 Electricity Generation 1 Iran Oil Transportation

12 Industrial

13 Industry Energy Demand Increases World Quadrillion BTUs 25 Middle East Quadrillion BTUs 25 Paint 2 Fertilizer 2 15 Plastics 15 1 Chemicals Manufacturing & Industry Steel Automobiles Textiles Natural Gas 5 Coal Liquid Energy Industry Fuels Lubricants Other Asphalt Agriculture ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

14 Industrial Energy Demand By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25 By Region Quadrillion BTUs 25 2 Market Heat Electricity Renewables 2 Rest of Non OECD 15 Coal 15 India 1 Gas 1 China 5 Oil 5 OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

15 Transportation

16 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 6 Rail Marine Demand by Region MBDOE Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty AP NA Europe LA ME ROW ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

17 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles Advanced* CNG LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 1 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

18 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles Advanced* CNG LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 1 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

19 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv 1 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

20 Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency Annual New Car Sales by Type Million Cars 15 Elec/PHV Full Hybrid 125 Natural Gas Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 1 Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains Miles per Gallon MPG Hybrid 75 1 Downsizing 5 Body & Accessories 25 5 Average 27 MPG Powertrain ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

21 Middle East Transportation Demand Transportation MBDOE Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Million Cars 6 3 CNG/LPG 5 Marine 25 4 Aviation 2 Hybrid Heavy Duty 1 Gasoline 1 5 Light Duty ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

22 Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel OECD Non OECD MBDOE MBDOE Other Natural Gas 3 3 Fuel Oil Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

23 Electricity generation

24 Electricity Demand by Region Non OECD OECD Thousand TWh Thousand TWh Russia/Caspian Southeast Asia Other Non OECD Middle East 1 Africa India 1 Other OECD Europe OECD 5 China 5 North America ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

25 Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves By Generation k TWh 35 Global Capacity Utilized GW Gas Coal Nuclear Wind & Solar Other Renewables Oil Nuclear Wind Solar ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

26 Middle East Electricity Demand Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour 2. Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs 2 Renewables 1.5 Commercial 15 Nuclear Coal 1. Residential 1 Gas.5 Other Industry 5 Heavy Industry Oil

27 Supply

28 Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO) ~1, Source: IEA ~1,1 ~1,1 ~1 Russia/Caspian Europe North America ~65 Middle East ~15 ~4,3 ~2 Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Global ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

29 Liquids Supply & Demand Outlook Liquids Supply MBDOE Liquids Demand OPEC Crude 42 Biofuels OPEC Condensate, NGLs, Other 4 Canadian Oil Sands 2 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy 5

30 Technology Driven Supplies Expand Globally Deepwater by Region MBDOE 15 NGL by Region MBDOE 15 Unconventional Oil by Region MBDOE 15 Other 12 Russia/Caspian/ Asia Pacific 12 Russia-Caspian/ Asia Pacific 12 Middle East 9 Africa 9 Middle East 9 Latin America 6 Europe 6 Africa Latin America 6 Latin America 3 North America Europe North America North America ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

31 Global Gas Resource Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD North America Europe OECD Russia/ Caspian* TCF 3 Middle East 25 2 Unconventional Asia Pacific Conventional World Latin America Africa Over 2 years coverage at current demand ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

32 Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts Global Gas Demand BCFD 6 Global Gas Supply BCFD Other India ME LA Afr. ROW 5 4 Rest of World Unconventional North America Unconventional China 3 AP Rest of World Conventional AP ME LA AFR ROW 24 North America Conventional ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

33 Growth in Unconventional Production Production by Type BCFD 2 Production by Region BCFD Rest of World 1 Shale 1 Asia Pacific 5 Coal Bed Methane 5 Americas Tight ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

34 Global LNG Supply and Demand LNG Demand LNG Supply MTA MTA Other 6 Other 5 Europe 5 Africa 4 4 North America 3 2 Asia Pacific 3 2 Middle East 1 1 Asia Pacific ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

35 Global Gas Supply Growth 21 to 24 By Type BCFD 1 8 LNG Pipeline Local Unconventional Local Conventional North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

36 Middle East Natural Gas Demand Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs Gas By Sector BCFD Other Res/Comm 6 4 Gas Industrial Oil 2 Electricity Generation Transportation ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

37 North America Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs 5 Oil Net Exports 4 Net Imports 3 2 Regional Supply Total Energy Balance 125 Net Exports 5 Gas Net Exports 1 Net Imports Regional Supply 2 Regional Supply ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

38 Asia Pacific Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs 9 Oil 6 Net Imports 3 Domestic Supply Gas 6 3 Total Energy Balance Net Imports Domestic Supply ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

39 Regional Energy Trends Evolve By Region Percent of World Total 1 North America 8 6 Europe Russia/Caspian China 4 Other AP 2 Africa Middle East Latin America ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

40 Conclusions ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

41

42 Bio for David Khemakhem (k mak m) David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil. He is a member of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where he is responsible for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies, and related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one of the principal contributors to ExxonMobil s long-term global Energy Outlook. He is also active in communicating ExxonMobil s view of the future of energy to a wide variety of audiences. David has worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numerous technical and management assignments covering activities in the United States and around the world. He started his career with Exxon Production Research Company in the area of Wellbore Design and eventually became Team Lead for the Well Integrity Group at ExxonMobil Upstream Research. In 21, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production Company as a Subsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover operations in Colorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas. In 23, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a variety of assignments, including Drilling and Completions Engineering Manager. In this role he led a team of engineers working on RasGas s 14 drilling rigs during the development of the North Field. In 29, David transferred back to Houston, joining the ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company as Well Performance Manager and then in 21, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery Manager. The following year, in 211, David moved to ExxonMobil Headquarters to join the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he is helping in the development of the Energy Outlook for 213 and beyond. David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Minnesota. Text in Box: Short Bio

43 Costs Impact U.S. Heavy Duty Choices 3-Year Cost of Ownership $k Year Cost of Ownership $k Vehicle Cost 3 Vehicle Cost 15 Fuel Cost 15 Fuel Cost Conv. Diesel LNG-CI Conv. Diesel CNG-SI Long Haul Truck Short Haul Truck LNG Tanks CNG Tanks ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy

44 Gas Into Transportation By Sector BCFD by Region BCFD 1 15 Rail Marine Heavy Duty Light Duty AP NA LA ME EU RC AF ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy