North American Cleantech Industry Key Trends and Insights

Transcription

1 North American Cleantech Industry Key Trends and Insights February

2 Headline Trends Solar Wars Coal Comeback? The Decade of Batteries? Microgrid & Smarter Grid Electricity, the New Oil? Continued Rise of Smart Water Source: Frost & Sullivan 2

3 Solar Wars Trump administration slaps 30% tariff on Chinese solar modules intention is to support domestic manufacturing but automation likely to limit job creation potential vs. Source: Frost & Sullivan 3

4 Annual Installed Capacity (MW) Solar down but not out Market has already slowed following 2016 surge. Demand would have been ~15% higher, as price increases deter some investment but 35 states have RE targets Key Takeaway: Utility solar takes the largest hit, residential resilient. Solar Power Market: Annual Installed Capacity Forecast by Project Type, North America, ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Utility Scale 4,617 10,845 8,435 7,394 6,885 6,190 7,893 8,731 9,386 10,126 10,488 Commercial&Industrial 1,296 1,200 1, ,183 1,346 1,517 1,680 1,703 Residential 2,187 2,955 2,543 2,421 2,366 2,363 3,123 3,522 3,972 4,344 4,509 Year Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 4

5 Coal Comeback? President Trump has a strong support base amongst coal voters but 18GW closed in 2017 Source: Frost & Sullivan 5

6 Where is the power investment in North America? Solar and wind projected to dominate investment, coal and nuclear disappearing North American Total Investment % Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Bioenergy Hydro % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2/3 of power generation investment in wind and solar 6

7 Installed Capacity GW The changing picture Gas steady, coal 21% of capacity down to 9% - renewables 29% to 43% 1,800,000 North American Power Capacity (GW), ,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,000 Nuclear Gas Coal Hydro 600,000 Bioenergy 400,000 Wind 200, Solar Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 7

8 The Decade of Batteries Tesla now worth the same as Ford in 8 years continuing to drive the market in North America Tesla s consolidated PV and battery offering already being replicated Daimler launches residential storage in the US Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 8

9 Unit Installations The Decade of Batteries US residential market is hotting up, will overtake Germany in 2020 Release of the revised SGIP incentive in 2017, maintenance of 30% tax income credit incentives for PV-with-storage systems beyond 2016 to 2019, removal of net-metering in Hawaii, reduction of net-metering in Arizona and growing pressure in other states to follow suit, and the adoption of residential storage as part of 3 rd party ownership models by all leading PV kit suppliers is expected to drive rapid adoption of residential battery storage adoption in the country, representing the largest global market by 2022 Average Battery Unit Size 5.0 KWh Residential Unit Sales to Market, CAGR CAGR CAGR % 99.7 % 36.5 % 13.0 KWh Annual Installed Capacity (kwh) Residential Capacity (kwh) Units Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 9

10 Revenue ($ Million) Microgrid & Smart Grid Extreme weather, security concerns and growth in distributed energy drive investment Microgrid revenue in North America is expected to reach $5.80 billion in 2022, up from $2.04 billion in 2015, driven largely by the commercial/campus microgrid segment ($2.67 billion by 2022). This segment and community/utility grids are expected to show the fastest growth, driven primarily by electricity supply risks during extreme weather and key areas of high DER penetration and transmission constraints increasing the business case for utility participation. Microgrid Market Revenues, North America, ,000.0 CAGR = 16.1% 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Commercial/Campus , , , , , , ,670.1 Military Industrial Community/Utility , , ,788.1 Rural & Island Grids Year Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is Source: Frost & Sullivan 10

11 Electricity, the new oil? At least it is for now - increasing number of oil majors are venturing into the power industry. Wind, a major investment area so far. Power Market: Renewable Portfolio of Oil Majors, Global, 2017 Organization Renewable Portfolio Size (MW) Statoil 751 BP 2,259 Total 27 Shell 1,500 Note*- Shell s renewable portfolio is an approximate value, actual values are likely to differ Source: Frost & Sullivan 11

12 Continued Rise of Smart Water Number of issues coming together to drive investment Larger water utilities increasingly looking more at cloud benefits, water quality and monitoring Smart agriculture investment strong droughts key driver But.investments that can demonstrate a quick ROI always favoured above all others Source: Frost & Sullivan 12

13 Concluding Thoughts 01 Renewable investment has taken a hit, but will still be above recent historic levels 35 states have RE targets 02 EV-PV-storage axis gaining fast 03 US ahead of the rest of the world in grid investment cost to rate payers key Source: Frost & Sullivan 13