Managing Seasonal Hydrology with PV and Battery Storage in an Asian Country Case Study

Transcription

1 Managing Seasonal Hydrology with PV and Battery Storage in an Asian Country Case Study by Paul Tuson and Jacques de la Bat, Mott MacDonald Africa (Pty) Ltd Electricity Supply to Africa and Developing Economies: Challenges and Opportunities

2 Introduction - Case Study Description of local conditions Benchmark BES prices Daily Load Profiles wet and dry seasons CoUE Analysis LCOE Analysis Battery on its own PV on its own Battery in combination with PV Other benefits of PV/BES Solutions Comparison of LCOEs of different Gx technologies Findings 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 2

3 Landlocked Description of Local Country Low GDP and access to capital Dependent on imports Not fully utilising indigenous hydro resources Hydro solutions have long lead times Dry season - needs to import power 24 hours/day, significant load shedding Wet season needs to import at system peak and load shedding at system peak 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 3

4 Daily Demand 2018 Wet Season 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 4

5 DEMAND/SUPPLY(MW) Daily Demand 2018 Dry Season 1600,00 Daily Demand/Supply Curve 1400, , ,00 800,00 600,00 400,00 200,00 0, HOURS IN DAY IPP Generation RoR Generation Peak RoR Storage Import PV Generation Battery Storage Load Shedding Demand 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 5

6 BES Capital Cost Lazard Study Version /10/24 Mott MacDonald 6

7 BES LCOE Lazard Study Version /10/24 Mott MacDonald 7

8 BES LCOE Lazard Study Version /10/24 Mott MacDonald 8

9 Benefits of PV/Battery Storage As per the LDC s above, in the dry season, PV and Battery systems result in a direct reduction of load shedding. In wet season, the PV displaces imported power and the batteries reduce load shedding at system peak. 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 9

10 CoUE Calculations Country GDP = USD21.14bn Annual energy consumption = 8.8TWh COUE = GDP/Energy Consumed = USD2.4/kWh Electricity shed annually = MWh Annual Cost of load shedding = USD2.89bn 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 10

11 CoUE Savings from PV/BES Solution Scenario CoUE saving (USD M) 150MW PV and 30MW Battery all year MW PV and 30MW Battery dry season only MW Battery all year MW Battery dry season only 66 Capital cost of battery: $313/kWh to $713/kWh Capital cost of PV: 800/kW A 30MW (5 hour) battery only solution costs between $46m and $106m A 30MW (5 hour) battery and 150MW PV solution costs between $166m and $226m It can be seen that the PV/Battery solution costs significantly less than the CoUE to the economy 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 11

12 LCOE of PV+BES solution Scenario Vanadium Flow (USD/kWh) Lithium Ion (USD/kWh) 150MW PV only MW PV and 30MW Battery with additional 30MW PV charging MW PV and 30MW Battery with Utility charging MW Battery with 30MW PV charging MW Battery with NEA charging /10/24 Mott MacDonald 12

13 Other Benefits of PV Battery Solution India import replacement (self-reliance/security) Peak replacement Capex deferral Local employment Diversification of energy supply Engineering capacity building Self-sufficiency in electricity supply 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 13

14 India Import Replacement India tariffs compared with 150MW PV and 30MW BES tariff India import tariffs 132kV import tariff = USc8.1/kWh 33kV import tariff = USc8.7/kWh 11kV import tariff = USc9.4/kWh India tariff currently cheaper by USD1.1m/annum India tariffs annual increase trajectory 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 14

15 Utility Tariff Peak Replacement Utility tariffs compared with 150MW PV and 30MW BES tariff Utility dry season tariff = USc12/kWh Utility monsoon season tariff = USc7/kWh Utility tariff currently cheaper by USD0.3m/annum Utility tariffs have an increase trajectory 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 15

16 Capital Deferral Assumption is the deferral of 1 x 50km 132kV line Interest on debt deferral benefits: 1 year deferral = USD1.7m 2 year deferral = USD2.1m 3 year deferral = USD2.6m 4 year deferral = USD2.8m 5 year deferral = USD2.9m 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 16

17 Comparison of LCOEs Hydro Generation: USc6/kWh PV generation: USc6.7/kWh Utility tariff: USc7/kWh to USc12/kWh Coal Generation: USc10/kWh Nuclear Generation: USc10/kWh India import tariff: USc8.1/kWh to USc9.4/kWh Battery Storage with PV: USc11.4/kWh Battery only: USc30/kWh Diesel/HFO generation: USc40/kWh 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 17

18 Conclusions The Asian country has a typical morning and evening peak demand profile Power supply from indigenous hydrology is very seasonal Large amounts of load shedding takes place annually = MWh Load-shedding is costing the Asian country economy $2.89bn/year 150MW (30MW/150MWh) BES solutions can save the country $789bn/year The cost of a 150MW (30MW (5 hour)) PV/battery solution is less than the cost of unserved energy displaced LCOEs of different PV/BES solutions range from USc6.7/kWh to USc30.5/kWh, however as PV and BES prices continue to drop, the LCOEs will improve 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 18

19 Conclusions PV/BES solutions provide other benefits: System security (reduced reliance on India imports) Utility peak replacement and related loss savings Capital deferral Local employment Diversification of energy supply Capacity building of engineering skills in the country Self-sufficiency in electricity supply PV/BES solutions LCOEs begin at USc 11.4/kWh which is higher than current utility or India import electricity solutions however PV/BES prices are dropping and the utility tariffs are not costreflective and the utility and import tariffs are increasing annually PV/BES solutions have LCOEs significantly lower than back-up diesel generation Solar/PV solutions can be installed in under 12 months with min 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 19

20 Thank you 2018/10/24 Mott MacDonald 20