Forecast Life-Cycle Cost of solar PV Electrity (LCOE) (RM/ KWhr) VS Future Cost of Electricity from Fossil Fuel (RM/ KWhr)
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1 Forecast Life-Cycle Cost of solar PV Electrity (LCOE) (RM/ KWhr) VS Future Cost of Electricity from Fossil Fuel (RM/ KWhr)
2 PV Scenarios for Residential ( 5% Nominal Discount Rate) Year Capital Cost (RM/ kwp) LCOE Gen (US$/MWh) LCOE Gen (sen/ Single Buyer Tariff (sen/ Transmission System Operation Distribution/ Customer Services Electricity Cost (sen/ NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Data Prepared by Might - PV National Road Map Working Group Assumptions: 25 years duration, Average installed capacity for residential system (12 KWp) Average annual yield:1350 KWhr/KWp/yr Capacity factor 15.4% Forecast Residential PV Generation Cost ( ) NA= Not applicable
3 PV Scenarios for Commercial & Industrial ( 5% Nominal Discount Rate) Year Capital Cost (RM) LCOE Gen (US$/MWh) LCOE Gen (sen/ Single Buyer Tariff (sen/ Transmission System Operation Distribution/ Customer Services Electricity Cost (sen/ NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Data Prepared by Might - PV National Road Map Working Group Assumptions: 25 years duration, Average installed capacity for residential system ( 1000 KWp) Average annual yield: 1,350 KWhr/KWp/yr Capacity factor 15.4% NA= Not applicable Forecast Commercial & Industrial Solar PV Generation Cost ( )
4 PV Scenarios for Utility Scale ( 5% Nominal Discount Rate) Single LCOE Buyer Transmission Capital LCOE Gen Year Gen (sen/ Tariff Cost (RM/ (US$/MWh) (sen/ kwp) System Operation Distribution/ Customer Services Electricity Cost (sen/ Data Prepared by Might - PV National Road Map Working Group Assumptions: 25 years duration, Average installed capacity for residential system (between 50 MWp) Average annual yield: 1,550 KWhr/KWp capacity factor : 17.7% Land cost < RM 3 to 4 /sq ft. (lease or purchase) x 87,120 sq ft x 50 ( 1 acre ~43,560 sq ft, 2 acre/ MWp ) Forecast Utility Scale Solar PV Generation Cost ( )
5 Average Electricity Tariif (Sen/ - (ST Data) Forecast Average Electricity Tariif (Sen/ Residential PV Generation Cost (Sen/ Commercial & Industrial PV Generation Cost (Sen/ Utility Scale PV Generation Cost (Sen/ + T&D cost Past Trend and Forecast Average Electricity Tariff vs Solar PV Electricity Generation Cost ( )
6 PROPOSED MECHANISMS FOR NET ENERGY METERING (NEM)
7 OR Check Meter Power Grid Proposed Net Energy Metering Interconnection Diagram
8 PV Installation Capacity i) Residential: Maximum 4kWp for Single phase Installation Maximum 12kWp for Three Phase Installation ii) Commercial and Industrial : Maximum 75% of declared Max. Demand load OR Maximum 60% of Incoming Fuse Rating. (Or which ever higher) Meters Arrangement (Two Meters) Net Meter to record/read the unit of Import Electricity in kwh and Export electricity in kwh And Solar Meter/ Check Meter to record the units of electricity generated by Solar PV system. Roll Over Period 12 months roll over period is to allow excess export credit to be utilized over period of 12month to off set the import electricity. No Quota and No Cap System Any residential, commercial or Industrial electricity consumer are eligible to install Solar PV on their roof and require to follow the PV installation capacity requirement. No Power System Study and Connection Confirmation Check ON Line Application and Low Application Fee Proposed NEM Mechanisms.
9 18,000 16,000 14,000 PV Energy Contribution (NEM) more than 10% of National Electricity Generation (PV capacity = 15GW) Export Tariff = 0.6 Import Tariff Power Grid Change : 5cent/kWh of total PV generation 15GWp 12,000 10,000 8,000 PV Energy Contribution (under NEM) less than 10% of Nation Electricity Generation but above 5% Export Tariff = 0.9 Import Tariff Power Grid Charge : 5 cent/kwh of total PV generation 7GWp 6,000 4,000 2,000 PV Energy Contribution (under NEM) less than 5% of Nation Electricity Generation but about 1.5% Export Tariff = 0.9 Import Tariff 2GWp PV Energy Contribution (under NEM) less than 1.5% of Nation Electricity Generation. Export Tariff = Import Tariff Cumulative. PV (MWp) ,356 1,913 2,637 3,579 4,802 6,393 8,143 10,067 12,185 14,513 17,075 % Vs Generation 0.08% 0.26% 0.46% 0.71% 1.03% 1.42% 1.92% 2.59% 3.37% 4.41% 5.62% 6.91% 8.30% 9.79% 11.40% Proposed Cumulative PV Capacity Targets, Export Tariffs and Power Grid Charges by Phases under NEM Programs
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