CEE & Russian PVC Markets

Transcription

1 CEE & Russian PVC Markets Global Vinyl Council 19-2 October, Saint-Petersburg Sergey Yaremenko, Market Report Company (MRC)

2 Agenda PVC market in Eastern Europe Balance of PVC production in EE Trends in C&SEE production till 21 Russian PVC market

3 Eastern Europe: which countries? Belarus Bulgaria Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Croatia Czech Rep. Estonia Population 143,5 mln. people 16 countries Population 178 mln. people Poland Russia Romania Turkey Population 72,1 mln. people

4 Eastern Europe: macroeconomics GDP increase, % Population in Eastern Europe, mln. people 8% 6% 4% 4,1% 3,3% 3,% 4,6% 6,2% 4,% 5,1% 4,9% 4,7% 4,4% 4,3% % % GDP* per capita in Eastern Europe, USD Construction in Eastern Europe per capita, m ,1 1,2 1,3 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 1,9 2, 2, * According to the direct method Source: World Bank, MRC

5 Eastern Europe: 24 GDP per capita (PPP), ' USD GDP, bln. USD (PPP) 25 Slovenia 42 2 Estonia 16 Czech Rep 181 Hungary Slovakia 79 Lithuania 42 Croatia 58 Poland 483 Russia Bulgaria 63 Romania 176 Ukraine 36 Turkey Source: World Bank Population, mln. people

6 Eastern Europe: 24 Per capita, m 2 5 Hungary 46 Living construction market, mln.. m 2 4 Czech Rep 3 Poland Eastern Europe Lithuania 5 1 Belarus' 4 Romania 3 Ukraine 8 Turkey 94 Russia Source: World Bank Population, mln. people

7 World PVC consumption Market in 24, mln. MT Market in 21, mln. MT +5% per year Source: CMAI ,5% per year 6 +,5% per year 4 +8% per year 2 +5% per year +3% per year North America South America Western Europe Eastern Europe +CIS+Turkey Asia Africa + Middle East

8 World PVC* consumption, КТ PVC per capita, kg 18 North America Western Europe Turkey South America 1173 Eastern Europe 83 Africa 1436 China 6642 in the world 5,6 kg Russia 448-5% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% * Here and further without compounds Source: Harriman Chemsult Market increase, 99-4, %

9 World PVC consumption, КТ 18 North America Western Europe Turkey China 1 18 Eastern Europe South America Russia 839 in the world 7, kg 2 Africa % % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Source: Harriman Chemsult Market increase, 5-1, %

10 Eastern Europe: PVC consumption, КТ PVC per capita, kg 12 1 Hungary 11 Poland : consumption per capita made up 4,5 kg 8 Turkey Czech Rep 55 Bulgaria 16 Romania 45 Eastern Europe 83 Slovakia 26 Ex-Yugoslavia 71 Russia 448 Belarus 23 Estonia 3 Lithuania 15 in the world 5,6 kg in China 4,44 kg in Russia 3,2 kg Ukraine 61 % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% 4% 45% 5% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC Market increase, 99-4,%

11 Eastern Europe: PVC consumption, КТ PVC per capita, kg Hungary 119 Czech Rep 6 Bulgaria Slovakia Poland 472 Ex-Yugoslavia 1 Eastern Europe Romania 89 Turkey 894 Estonia 5 Russia 839 Belarus 38 in Western Europe 14,5 kg Ukraine 148 Lithuania 26 21: PVC consumption per capita made up 6,6 kg in the world 7, kg in China 6,7 kg in Russia 5,9 kg % 5% 1% 15% 2% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC Market increase, 5-1,%

12 Eastern Europe: PVC consumption PVC consumption in Eastern Europe, KT PVC consumption in EE per capita, kg ,2 3,1 3,8 4, 4,5 5, 5,3 5,7 6, 6,4 6, PVC consumption in Eastern Europe, 24 PVC consumption in Eastern Europe, 21 Baltic States 2% Czech Rep 7% Ukraine 8% Slovakia 3% Romania 6% Macedonia 1% Croatia 1% Belarus 3% Slovenia 3% Bulgaria 2% Serbia and Montenegro 4% Hungary 13% Poland 46% Belarus 2% Baltic States 2% Bulgaria 2% Czech Rep 6% Ex-Yugoslavia Ukraine 11% 14% Hungary 11% Slovakia 4% Romania 6% Poland 42% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC

13 Eastern Europe: PVC trade Eastern Europe. PVC market, KT PVC import by countries, KT Production Import Export Byelarus' Bulgaria Ex-Yugoslavia Hungary Baltic States Poland Romania Slovakia Ukraine Czech Rep PVC export by countries, KT PVC import into Turkey, KT 8 6 Byelarus' Bulgaria Ex-Yugoslavia Hungary Baltic States Poland Romania Slovakia Ukraine Czech Rep Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC

14 CEE: balance of PVC production PVC/VCM capacities, 24, KT PVC VCM PVC/VCM production, KT PVC production VCM production Total Borsodchem Anwil Oltchim NCHZ Petkim Kalush Spolana Market of chlorine, KT Market of caustic, KT Production Import Export Production Import Export Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC

15 CEE: balance without Kalush VCM capacities utilization in CEЕ, % PVC/VCM production, KT 1% 8% 88% 89% 9% 96% 95% 96% 97% 99% 98% 99% 98% PVC VCM % 6 4% 4 2% 2 % VCM deliveries from Kalush, 24 (223 КТ) VCM deliveries from Kalush, 25 (184 КТ) Slovakia 7% Poland 11% Greece 1% Turkey 3% Portugal 3% Romania 28% Greece 1% Slovakia 4% Poland 7% Turkey 4% Portugal 3% Romania 44% Hungary 47% Hungary 28% Source: MRC

16 Poland: PVC consumption PVC consumption in Poland, KT PVC consumption in Poland per capita, kg ,6 7, 8, 8,6 9,8 1,5 11, 11,5 11,8 12,1 12, PVC-S consumption by markets, KT pipes films/sheets cable profile Poland. PVC market, KT Production Import Export Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC

17 Poland: balance of PVC production Production, КТ 24 6 Caustic Chlorine Plock: ethylene capacities increase from 36 КТ up to 66 КТ HDPE capacities increase by 25 КТ VCM 254 PVC Ethylene 123 Compounds 68 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: MRC Capacities utilization,%

18 Hungary: PVC consumption PVC end consumption in Hungary, KT PVC consumption per capita, kg ,4 9,6 9,9 1,2 1,3 9,5 9,6 9,7 9,8 9,9 1, PVC-S consumption by markets, KT Hungary. PVC market, KT 9 pipes films/sheets Coatings Profiles 3 Production Import Export Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC

19 Hungary: balance of PVC production Capacities, КТ 4 27 PVC 4 КТ 3 VCM 35 КТ 2 Tiszaújváros Ethylene: 62 КТ LDPE: 12 КТ / HDPE: 4 КТ Caustic 23 КТ Ethylene 15 КТ Chlorine 21 КТ 1 VCM 5 КТ Kalush VCM? Compounds 5 КТ Finished articles 4 КТ % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Capacities utilization,% Source: MRC

20 Romania: balance of PVC market PVC end consumption in Romania, KT PVC consumption per capita, kg ,6 1,7 1,9 2,3 2,5 2,6 2,8 3,2 3,6 4, 4, Romania. PVC market, KT Profile consumption, КТ Production Import Export Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC

21 Romania: ethylene shortage Capacities, КТa Chlorine VCM PVC Caustic soda VCM to buy Ethylene to buy Production of Petrom, KT Ethylene Polyethylene Acrylonitrile Propylene Source: Oltchim, Petrom, MRC

22 Dioki: the VCM plan Production of Dioki, KT Capacities of Dioki, KT 25 LDPE (Okiten) LDPE (Dinalen) HI & GP PS EPS 6 LDPE HI & GP PS PVC Ethylene VCM plan plan Source: Dioki

23 Petkim: without changes up to 28 Source: Petkim

24 Kalush: will PVC project be realized? Source: MRC Product VCM Export 24, MT Propylene HDPE Benzene Ethylene Caustic Ethylene, KT VCM, KT Caustic, KT Chlorine, KT

25 Russian market: Consumption and Prices LDPE market HDPE market KT 6 + USD 41* USD 12 KT 6 + USD 151* USD KT 6 Polypropylene market Polystyrene market USD KT + USD 94* USD 1** USD * Russia: H1 Domestic prices free of VAT compared to H1 26 WE prices (CMAI) ** Russian and WE prices for GPPS Source: MRC

26 Russia: PVC consumption 7 KT 25-28, AAGR - 12% 6 5 Source: MRC , AAGR - 24%

27 Russia: drivers of PVC market growth Import of finished articles from PVC, KT Import of finished articles from PVC, 24,% other profiles 11% sheets, films 11% pipes 5% others 3% flooring 27% films 2% window profiles 23% 8 Import of equipment for PVC processing, items 1 Investments into processing of PVC, mln. USD Source: MRC

28 Investments into processing of PVC 14 KT /EUR 3 mln. November KT /EUR 1 mln. 14 KT /EUR 13 mln. 12 KT/ EUR 11 mln. Total: 65 KT/ EUR 74 mln. 1 KT /EUR 1 mln. Source: MRC

29 Russia: PVC market till 212 КТ Bashim? Lukoil? Sayansk? Sibur? Nikos? + 28 КТа Consumption 8 Capacities 2 КТ КТ Postponed demand КТ 3 2 Domestic PVC Import PVC Imported goods from PVC * PVC capacities utilization in 25-98% Source: MRC * Current additional margin of PVC producer - USD15

30 Thank you! Sergey Yaremenko, Managing Director, Market Report Company Moscow ; Kiev