ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES AND IMPACT ON STATION OF THE FUTURE. Edouard BOURDIN

Transcription

1 ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES AND IMPACT ON STATION OF THE FUTURE Edouard BOURDIN

2 TRANSPORT TRANSPORT OTHER SECTORS OTHER SECTORS TRANSPORT REPRESENTS MORE THAN 50% OF OVERALL OIL DEMAND Total hypothesis Reference case LTP % In Mbd % 53.3 Marine Aviation Heavy and light duty vehicles +0.4% +1.7% +1.7% +0.3% 61.2 Marine Aviation Heavy and light duty vehicles Cars and SUVs Cars and SUVs

3 DEMAND FOR ROAD TRANSPORT FUELS Cars and SUVs WORLD FLEET WORLD FLEET 2030 In Mbd EV In million units % In million units ICE Growth in road transport efficiency gains NGV EV 2030 consumption ICE ICE: Internal Combustion Engine EV: Electric Vehicles (Batterie electric vehicles + Pug in hybrid electric vehicles) NGV: Natural gas for vehicles

4 DEMAND FOR ROAD TRANSPORT FUELS Heavy and Light duty Vehicles In Mbd % WORLD GDP GROWTH: +3.3% / y ( ) Growth in road transport efficiency gains NGV EV 2030 consumption

5 AMONG THE CHALLENGES OF THE MOBILITY SECTOR REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS REDUCTION OF LOCAL POLLUTANT EMISSIONS - 30% of GHG emissions by 2030 (vs 1990) - 60% of GHG emissions by 2050 (vs 1990) The reduction targets for GHG emissions for light vehicles push the development of new technologies. For trucks, GHG emission targets are currently being discussed on EU level. Classification of vehicles according to tailpipe cleanliness. Creation of an increasing number of restricted circulation zones in Europe, linked to fee systems, advantages for clean vehicles, etc.

6 SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY From light vehicles to trucks, there are three types of solutions: Increase energy efficiency of vehicles Aerodynamics, weight decrease, energy recovery, engine optimization, hybridization, driving assistance More than 10% of gains seem possible in the medium/long term Incorporation of fuel products of renewable origin Biofuels, biomethane, electricity from renewable sources The incorporation of renewable products can decrease GHG emissions Technology diversification Natural gas, compressed (CNG) or liquefied (LNG), electro mobility, hydrogen and fuel cells A direct effect on local pollutant emissions for certain technologies

7 NATURAL GAS FOR VEHICLES

8 NATURAL GAS FOR VEHICLES - NGV Natural Gas for Vehicles: Composition (depending on source): Alternative fuel to petrol and diesel for all land-going applications (light vehicles, heavy duty vehicles, off-road vehicles) Methane (over 80%), then above all ethane, propane CH 4 NATURAL GAS FOR VEHICLES Compressed at 200 bar CNG (1L Diesel <> 5L CNG) Liquefied at -160 C LNG (1L Diesel <> 1.8L LNG) CNG logistics Gas pipeline network LNG logistics Transport by truck CNG vehicle storage Pressurised cylinders LNG vehicle storage Cryogenic tank CNG vehicles (P max < 400 hp*) LNG vehicles (P max < 400 hp*) CNG range km LNG range LNG Special feature km Boil-off *IVECO Stralis NP

9 NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGY A readily available alternative An alternative fuel driven by 5 main boosters NGV manufacturer existing offers Existing supply infrastructures Gas pipeline network LNG truck filling NGV user cost Total Cost of Ownership Environmental issues and/or awareness Taxation and/or subsidies Among the first reasons, a limited environmental impact Compliance with the strictest standards. Same performance, even better, than a diesel with AdBlue and DPF regarding NOx and particulate emissions Noise reduction by 50% The more biomethane is incorporated, the less CO 2 is globally emitted Natural gas is the short term credible alternative to diesel, especially for road transportation

10 E-MOBILITY

11 THE PRESENT BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET - WORLD Annual sales ANNUAL SALES BEV MARKET SHARE PER COUNTRY 2016 sales ~ 450,000 BEVs ~0.5% of LV market , , , , , , , , ,000 50, % 15.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% Source: IEA The BEV market is an emerging market with a very fast growth ( : +62% / year), concentrated in 6 countries. China is the region where the EV growth was the most significant in 2016 (+69% vs. 2015). In Europe, the EV growth was still positive in 2016 but slowed down in comparison to the previous years.

12 CUSTOMER USES OF ELECTRIC CHARGING POINTS Private charging points > 85% of charges Public charging points Slow charge 10% of charges Fast charge <5% of charges MAIN CHARGING POINT CONVENIENCE CHARGING EXTENSION OF RANGE Home Condos Workplace Shopping centers Street / Car park Service stations The customer s main charging point is at home or at the workplace. Fast charging points will mainly be installed along major highways for top-off or emergency charges on longer distances. * Sources: RENAULT, PORSCHE,TESLA, Valeo, IEA, Orange, Idaho National Laboratory, Observatoires Mobilité BIPE, Roland Berger, NPE

13 FAST CHARGING TECHNOLOGIES 50 kw kw <350 kw Equivalent capacity Urban 10 Flats Highway 30 Flats ¼ ha FAST CHARGING SUPER FAST ULTRA FAST 100 km 30 min Public charging Tesla supercharger Announced by OEMs (from 2018 onwards?) min km 9 12 min km 4 8 min >300 km Capex k k >200 k Evolution of charging capacities to insure an optimal client experience. For superfast 150 kw charging, the electric power requirement equals the needs for a 30-unit residential building 1: marginal CAPEX for 1 charging point, excl. costs for electric network adaptation

14 H2-MOBILITY

15 THE HYDROGEN POWERED VEHICLE, ANOTHER TYPE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE The hydrogen vehicle is powered by a fuel cell (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle - FCEV) Mechanical energy Electricity Hydrogen Vehicle propulsion Electric motor Fuel cell H2 tank 700 bar The advantages of the hydrogen vehicle over the battery electric vehicle BEV 2020 (eg. Renault ZOE) H2 (eg. Toyota Miraï) V ~220 L M ~240 kg V ~120 L M ~90 kg km 100 km <> 10 kw battery rental: 79 /month km 400 km <> 4 min < Classed as a Zero Emission Vehicle, the hydrogen vehicle can complement the automakers vehicle portfolio. The usage of a hydrogen vehicle is very close to that of a combustion engine vehicle, and it requires a service station network similar to the conventional service station network.

16 THE H2 CHALLENGES: COSTS AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CO 2 Vehicle, Infrastructure and Fuel Costs A main challenge for hydrogen lies with the reduction of costs associated to its production, the required retail infrastructure and hydrogen vehicles. Even if the fuel cell price was divided by 2, the vehicle price would still be high compared to other technologies. Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gas Emissions In order to reduce WTW GHG emissions as compared to conventional fuels, hydrogen needs to be produced using renewable sources («green» electricity or biogas) or natural gas linked to Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). This promising alternative fuel needs to be integrated to the European political R&D agenda in order to achieve more rapidly the technological and economical maturity of decarbonized hydrogen production.

17 THE WORLD HYDROGEN VEHICLE MARKETS CURRENT SITUATION (MID 2016) Japan 85+ H2 stations 600 FCEV USA 50+ H2 stations 500 FCEV Germany 30+ H2 stations 100+ FCEV South Korea 10+ H2 stations 40 FCEV PRODUCTION FORECASTS FOR TOYOTA 2015: 1,000 Miraï 2016: 2,000 Miraï 2017: 3,000 Miraï Our goal is to produce 30,000 units annually by 2020 Yoshikazu Tanaka, Mirai s chief engineer 100% H2 propelled vehicles available Range-Extender 3 Vehicles available Projects 3 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) with 1.7kg H2 tank for extended range (+180km) With Honda

18 SOLAR PROJECT

19 SOLAR: THE SOLUTION TO REDUCE OUR STATIONS CARBON EMISSION Total has launched in November 2016 a program to equip 5,000 of its service stations worldwide with solar panels within five years, including 2,355 in Africa. The total solar capacity to be installed is about 200 MW, equivalent to the amount of electricity used to power a city of 200,000 people. The project represents an investment of around $300 million.

20 MULTY-ENERGY STATION AT BERLIN AIRPORT SCHÖNEFELD