PV Grid Parity & Implications for Electricity Systems

Transcription

1 PV Grid Parity & Implications for Electricity Systems IEA-PVPS Workshop, PVSEC22, Hangzhou November 6 th 2012 Dr Muriel Watt IT Power (Australia) Pty Ltd

2 Outline Definitions of Parity PV prices and market trends Implications of grid parity Economic Technical Social Regulatory New opportunities IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

3 Photo: Bushlight system at Kakadu Definitions of Grid Parity IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

4 Some options PV LCOE = retail tariff PV electricity gets paid the same as retail tariff PV ROI < projected LCOE of electricity purchases over 25 years PV pays for itself in less than customer s economic planning cycle (residential 7-10 years, commercial 2-5 years?) PV LCOE = wholesale electricity price PV delivered at < wholesale price + distribution savings All site, regulation and customer dependent

5 305 kwp PV system on Alice Springs Crown Casino Photo: SunPower Corporation PV Prices & Market Trends IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

6 Grid System Price Trends (APVA, 2012) Current A$ $/Wp

7 Evolution of grid-connected installations (PVPS, 2012)

8 EPIA, 2012

9 EPIA, 2012

10 Some International PV Targets (PVPS, 2011 & 2012) Markets expected to change, but remain strong: China: 15 GW by 2015; 50 GW by 2020 France: 5.4 GW by 2020; 25,000 new jobs India: 20 GW solar by 2022, 100 GW by 2030 (90% grid) Italy: 23 GW by 2016 Japan: 28GW by 2020, 53 GW by 2030 Saudi Arabia: 15 GW by 2032 Spain: 3.6% of electricity by 2020

11 Australian PV Market with 2012 projections (APVA, 2012) Cumulative GW off-grid domestic grid-connected distributed off-grid non-domestic grid-connected power stations

12 Implications of Grid Parity - Economic Adelaide showground Photo: First Solar

13 Australian Residential LCOE trends and Grid Parity Projections (APVA, 2011) c / kwh Typical current price Medium LCOE range Annual Grid Electricity - High Base case NPV Grid Electricity - Low Maximum LCOE range Annual Grid Electricity - Low NPV Grid Electricity - High

14 Australian Commercial Sector Grid Parity Projections (APVA 2012)

15 Australian Utility-Scale grid parity projections (APVA, 2012)

16 Economic Issues Even once retail price parity is reached: Guaranteed PV connection or grid export not always available Parity can be countered by: Increasing network cost components of tariffs, so energy is a smaller % Increasing daily connection fees Forced gross metering of PV output at bulk supply rate Non-transparent connect costs, procedures & timelines Energy market & network savings not passed back to PV owners (or even to customers) Low or zero buy-back rates Note that price gap remains for larger-scale systems connected to the transmission network Needs more installations, R&D, short-term gap support

17 1.22 MWp PV system, University of Queensland Implications of Grid Parity - Technical IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

18 Voltage rise Y.Ueda (2009)

19 Reverse Power Flow / Reactive Power APVA/CEEM, 2012

20 Harmonics Source: APVA/CEEM, 2012

21 Cloud issues Source: APVA/CEEM,

22 Implications of Technical Issues More difficult for countries with relatively inflexible coal and nuclear generation bases to accommodate PV than for those with more hydro & gas Installations already being limited because old networks are not designed for distributed generation / reverse power flow Network upgrade one option but: DE (PV, EE & DSM) can often provide a lower cost solution Stranded grid assets possible if trends to energy efficiency and self-sufficiency continue Smart grids needed Not just TOU meters, but also smart inverters, communications & storage We need a very different type of grid

23 Implications of Grid Parity - Social IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

24 Social Issues Customers now have an option, since DE is readily available, can be cheaper than grid power & provides long term electricity cost certainty Electricity retail market structures and network assets often publicly owned and are hence vulnerable if: Buildings trend to zero energy Electricity usage drops with DE uptake Customers opt for on-site storage and purchase from the grid only in offpeak periods Can equity and electricity access issues be resolved? NIMBY for larger systems, as has happened with wind? Or will it be WIMBY?? Legal rights to solar access need to be established

25 PV penetration in Germany 40% of demand on summer weekends (Burger, 2011, Gifford, 2012) Implications of Grid Parity - Regulatory

26 Regulation / market design issues Electricity markets typically designed for central generation No incentive or inherent right to value distributed energy Monopoly distribution businesses earn money by kwh transmission and can pass through all increased costs Retailer earnings based on kwh sold New market designs needed which gives equal value to supply and demand options Transparency to allow markets to operate and for customers to be able to choose the best options Rights and technical standards for connection Ancillary service requirements and rewards Appropriate setting of network use charges Defined roles and regulation for new energy service providers Mechanisms which allow energy and network benefits from DE to be passed to system owners and/or customers generally Californian Integrated Resource Planning model may be appropriate

27 Green, 2012 New Opportunities

28 New Technologies, Businesses, Markets, Skills New supply and demand markets and businesses Active end-user participation Wide range of energy service providers Modern power electronic devices with services besides active power injection Fault Ride-Through Dynamic grid support Active voltage and reactive power control Use of PV inverter as active filters More detailed forecasting of supply and demand Energy self-reliant communities Mini-grids Zero energy buildings Rural electrification without large grid extension Disconnecting high cost, low volume portions of existing distribution grids More PV technologies and applications New PV device types New transmission grids to high Renewable Energy sites

29 References APVA, 2011, Residential sector modelling of PV and electricity prices, report for the ASI APVA, 2012, Commercial sector modelling of PV and electricity prices, report for the CEC APVA, 2012, Modelling of Large-Scale PV systems and electricity prices, report for the CEC APVA, 2012, National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in Australia , Prepared for the Australian PV Association, May APVA/CEEM, 2012, Carnarvon: A Case Study of Increasing Levels of PV Penetration in an Isolated Electricity Supply System, a report by the UNSW Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets for the Australian PV Association Burger, B., 2011, Fraunhofer ISE, EEX Transparency Platform, European PV Industries Association (EPIA), 2012, Global Market Outlook for PV until 2016, May Gifford, J, 2012, Germany: Record 40% solar weekend, PV Magazine, 29 May (22 GW = 40% demand) Green, M., 2012, The 2012 Semi Roadmap for PV Bigger, Thinner, Faster, Cheaper, SPREE Seminar, UNSW, May PVPS, 2012, Trends in PV Applications. Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2011, Report IEA-PVPS T1 21: 2012 Ueda, Y. T. K., 2009, Detailed Performance Analyses Results of Grid-Connected Clustered PV Systems in Japan. Tokyo: University of Agriculture and Technology.