Economic Outlook Germany

Transcription

1 19. Chemie-Wirtschaftsseminar Frankfurt, 14 June 27 PD Dr. Christian Dreger, Dr. Stefan Kooths DIW Berlin - Macro Analysis and Forecasting

2 Key assumptions Oil price 6 USD 6 USD Exchange rate 1,32 USD/Euro World trade +7, % +7, % ECB reference rate 4, % (by mid 27) Effective wage rate +1,8 % +3, % Shift effects (prod.) 3 Bill. Euro 2

3 World economy 9 8 % Growth (developed countries) Growth (World) Unemployment (developed countries) Growth (NIC) Inflation (developed countries)

4 US growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted Volume (Bill. US-$) % 33 2, 3,9 3,2 3,3 2,3 3, I Annualized rate Bill. US-$ II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1 4

5 Key figures for the US % GDP Net public lending (% of GDP) Unemployment Current account (% of GDP) Consumer prices

6 Japanese growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted Volume (Trill. Euro) % -,2,8 1,1 2,9 2,6 2, Annualized rate Trill. Yen I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -2 6

7 Key figures for Japan % GDP Net public lending (% of GDP) Unemployment Current account (% of GDP) Consumer prices 7

8 Eurozone growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted Volume (Bill. Euro) %,8 1,8 1, 2,8 2, 2, Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -1 8

9 Key figures for the Eurozone Percent GDP Net public lending (% of GDP) Unemployment (rhs) Current account (% of GDP) Consumer prices

10 German growth perspectives GDP growth rate in % 3, Procent 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,,, -, , 1

11 German growth perspectives: West and East GDP growth rate in % 3, 3, 2, Procent Germany Germany (West) Germany (East) 2, 1, 1,,, -, , 11

12 Technical growth components 3, 2, Percentage points Net Growth Overhang 3, 2, 2, 1, Calendar effect Growth (working day adjusted) 2, 1, 1, 1,,,, -, , -, 12

13 German growth dynamics GDP, seasonal and working-day adjusted Volume (Bill. Euro) % -,2,8 1,1 2,9 2,6 2, Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -3 13

14 3, Domestic demand robust in 27 Export surplus less important GDP growth rate and components growth shares in % Procentage points Gross domestic product 2, Domestic demand Net exports 2, 1, 1,,,

15 Domestic demand more balanced Component growth contributions in % 2, 2, Percentage points Domestic demand Public Consumption Construction Inventory changes Private Consumption Machinery & Equipment Other equipment 1, 1,,, , 1

16 Private consumption: Recovery interrupted by VAT increase Consumption of private households (seasonal and working-day adjusted) Volume (Bill. Euro) % -,1 -,3,3,9,9 1, Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -4 16

17 M&E: Moderate but robust growth Investment in machinery and equipment (seasonal and working-day adjusted) 6 Volume (Bill. Euro) % -,2 2,8 6, 8, 6,4, Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -1 17

18 Construction: No longer a growth cruncher Construction investment (seasonal and working-day adjusted) Volume (Bill. Euro) % -1,4-4,6-3,,3 2,9 1, Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -2 18

19 Export dynamics of a world champion Exports of goods and services (seasonal and working-day adjusted) Volume (Bill. Euro) % 2,3 8,8 7,1 12,9 8,6 7, Annualized rate Bill. Euro -1 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -1 19

20 Import growth reflects domestic recovery Imports of goods and services (seasonal and working-day adjusted) 3 2 Volume (Bill. Euro) %,3 6,2 6,7 11, 7,7 8, Annualized rate Bill. Euro I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -1 2

21 2, Competitiveness still raising Inflation driven by exogenous factors Consumer prices: HVPI Procent 2, Consumer prices Unit labour cost 1, 1,,, , -1, -1, 21

22 Labor market improving, but still calls for action 4 Mio. Persons Procent 14, 4 Employed persons Unemployed Unemployment rate 12, 3 3 1, 2 8, 2 6, 1 4, 1 2, , 22

23 Productivity whip at work 12 Index (2 = 1) Bill. hours 14 Productivity Unit labor cost Hours worked by employees (rhs)

24 Erosion of the Eastern cost disadvantage finally, but at a productivity distance West Germany = 1 % Hourly Labor Cost GDP per hours worked by employees Compensation of Employees GDP per total employment