Fuel Use in Electricity Generation The changing landscape

Transcription

1 Fuel Use in Electricity Generation The changing landscape for Bipartisan Policy Center: Understanding the New Energy Landscape June 27, 212 Washington, DC, Director, Office Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis, EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Cost of coal and natural gas delivered to electric power plants in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, Jan 27- April 212 dollars per mmbtu Mid-Atlantic Coal Mid-Atlantic Natural Gas Southeast Coal Southeast Natural Gas Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, Power Plant Operations Report 2

3 Average estimated cost of power generation in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, Jan 27- April 212 dollars per megawatthour Mid-Atlantic Coal Mid-Atlantic Natural Gas CC Southeast Coal Southeast Natural Gas CC Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, Power Plant Operations Report 3

4 Electricity generation by fuel, Jan 27- April 212 Net generation million megawatthours 2 coal natural gas nuclear hydro other renewables other ? Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, Power Plant Operations Report 4

5 Annual growth in electricity consumption continues to slow percent growth (3-year rolling average) History 21 Period Annual Growth 195s s s s s Projections

6 Reference case electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and natural gas electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year 6 History 21 Projections % 1% Natural gas Renewables 28% 15% 2 2% Nuclear 18% 1 45% Coal 38% Oil and other liquids 1% 1%

7 Why might could will we be wrong? Different relative fuel prices Faster / slower electricity demand growth Changing policies and regulations Changing consumer preferences Faster / slower technological progress Technological breakthroughs 7

8 Key sensitivities Natural Gas Price Sensitivities (Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices in 21 dollars per mmbtu) Lowest Reference Highest Coal Price Sensitivities (Coal Prices to Power Plants in 21 dollars per mmbtu) Lowest Reference Highest Electricity Use Billion Kilowatthours Annual Growth 21 to 235 % Lowest 4,14 4,393.5% Reference 4,311 4,716.8% Highest 4,58 5,82 1.1% 8

9 Key sensitivities Natural Gas Price Sensitivities Coal Price Sensitivities Electricity Use Highest Reference Lowest 5 1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices (21 dollars per mmbtu) Coal Prices to Power Plants Billion kilowatthours (21 dollars per mmbtu) 9

10 Coal plant retirements gigawatts Electricity Demand Coal Prices Natural Gas Prices Shorter Investment Horizons 1

11 Coal generation billion kilowatthours 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Reference High Economic Growth High Coal Cost Low Estimated Ultimate Recovery Low Economic Growth Low Coal Cost High Estimated Ultimate Recovery High Technically Recoverable Resources Reference 5 Low Gas Price

12 235 coal generation billion kilowatthours 25 Electricity Demand Coal Prices Natural Gas Prices Shorter Investment Horizons

13 Natural gas generation billion kilowatthours 3, 2,5 2, Reference Low Economic Growth High Economic Growth Low Coal Cost High Coal Cost High Estimated Ultimate Recovery Low Estimated Ultimate Recovery High Technically Recoverable Resources Reference 5 Low Gas Price 5 1,5 1,

14 235 Natural gas generation billion kilowatthours 25 Electricity Demand Coal Prices Natural Gas Prices Shorter Investment Horizons

15 235 electricity generation shares gigawatts 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2% 24% 45% Electricity Demand 1% 15% 15% 16% 15% 17% 14% 16% 14% 15% 15% 18% 19% 18% 17% 18% 17% 19% 28% 28% 28% 25% 38% 37% 37% 42% Coal Prices 32% Natural Gas Prices 31% 24% 38% 29% 33% 32% 36% 4% 17% 18% 17% 3% Shorter Investment Horizons 36% 34% Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas Coal 15

16 235 power sector CO 2 emissions million metric tons 2,6 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 Electricity Demand Coal Prices Natural Gas Prices Shorter Investment Horizons 16

17 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review Annual Energy Review 17