The Outlook For The Autocatalyst Market in China. October, 2016

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1 The Outlook For The Autocatalyst Market in China October, 2016

2 000 oz Share of global pgm demand China Gross PGM Demand vs Global demand 6,000 35% 5,000 30% 4,000 3,000 2,000 25% 20% 15% 10% 1,000 5% China Pt China Pd China Rh Pt: China vs global Pd: China vs global Rh: China vs global 0% The automotive sector will be the main driver of growth. 1

3 China Automotive Market Overview Sales: 000 Vehicles 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 China 1 5,000 PV HD/MD Growth Rate China 6 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 0% Source: LMC Automotive Passenger vehicles started to use PGM in auto catalysts in July 2001 (China 1). Heavy Duty vehicles will use significant quantities of PGM from Jan.2020 (China VI). 2

4 China Automotive Market Overview Pink Area: locations of major car manufacturers 52 OEMs, 83 Canners located in 37 cities New Vehicle Sales Y2015 (Millions) New Vehicle Sales 2016H1 (Millions) No. Of Automotive Industrial Employees (M people) Vehicle population/ 1000 people * Top 6 Chinese Automotive groups: SAIC, Dong Feng, FAW, Chang An, BAIC & GAC 2015 Sales Ranking( 000 vehicles) SAIC Dong Feng FAW Chang An BAIC GAC 4,896 3,436 2,566 2,094 1,948 1,355 37% higher new vehicles sales in China than the U.S % higher in 2016 H1-75% vehicle population/k people in China compared to the U.S.

5 China Automotive Emissions Legislation China China 3 China III China IV HDD China V HDD China 6b LDG China 2 China II China 4 LDG 2014 China 4 LDD China 5 LDG China 6a LDG China VI HDD Emission legislation in China usually follows EU legislation and has evolved significantly since China 1 in However China 6 legislation is even more stringent than Euro 6. China 6 will have 2 stages with WLTC cycle instead of NEDC applied for Europe with even tighter limits. China 6b will even require RDE ( real driving emission) which will bring tremendous challenges for after-treatment and therefore require more PGM. 4

6 China 13th Five Year Plan ( ) - Objectives Economic growth Average annual GDP growth rate of 6.5% until (6.7% in 2016H1) Service sector s share of aggregate output ~56% in (50.5% in 2015) Increase in urbanization rate to 60% by (56.1% in 2015) Enhance environmental protection and green growth Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels energy to 15 percent by (2015 it was 12%) Decreasing annual energy consumption by 15 percent Implementing harmful PM(particulate matter) level cuts of 18 percent. (Annually) Reducing carbon dioxide emissions and constructing low-carbon trial units. National initiatives, such as an expected national carbon trading platform and green tax, will be rolled out before Research and development R&D expenditure to GDP ratio 2.5%. (2.1% in 2015) Patents per 10,000 people 12 pieces. (6.3 in 2015) People s livelihood Average increase in income ~6.5% p.a. to

7 PGM Demands Forecast - China VI / China 6 To meet RDE requirement, achieving quick light off and enhancing durability performance, more catalyst volume or numbers are required. LD: Catalyst per vehicle will be changed from 1.6 bricks(china 5) to 2 bricks(china 6), and PGM consumption will be 20% to 30% higher than China 5. HDD: PGM content of different catalysts type for a type engine displacement at 8L roughly at about 5g to 11g (DOC+CSF+SCR+ASC) which will sharply increase the demand compared with previous HDD market. 6

8 China Auto Outlook -Opportunity but Not without Challenges Sales growth will remain robust, but Continued product proliferation Rising ownership cost, environment and infrastructure will hold back car consumption Increasing competition and higher cost of ownership will place downward pressure on prices and margins As sales expand into tier 3, 4 and 5 cities Optimal retail placement and resource allocation Finding qualified dealers, and Branding, sales and marketing to these new consumers will pose challenges Future points of friction in the domestic-foreign JV relationships An increasing sophisticated consumer will dictate winners and losers

9 The 13th Five Year Plan-New energy vehicles Government Roadmap 000 Vehicles 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 MIIT, the Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap 340K, 1% 400K, 1.6% NEV Government Roadmap (Vehicles/left scale, share of auto market/ right scale) 1,450K, 5% 43% 6,350K 20% BEV.Prod PHEV Share of auto market 53% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Production figures include Passenger and commercial vehicles. NEV means Battery Electric Vehicle and Plug-in hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV). Government target NEV will take up 5% share of vehicle market in 2020, nearly 20% (exceed 5M vehicles) in 2025 Government target Local OME will represent 70% share of NEV market in 2020 and 80% in 2025 Currently central government subsidy till 2020, no further details after 2020 BEV, PHEV share refer LMC and JM estimated. 9

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