Motor Vehicles: Overview, Alternatives, Issues

Transcription

1 Motor Vehicles: Overview, Alternatives, Issues World Motor Vehicle Population Millions 12 1 Air Pollution as Climate Forcing: Alternative Scenarios Their Benefits and Costs M.P. Walsh With Advice & Assistance from B. Croes, A. Ayala, R. Corey and M. DeLucchi May Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars One Result: Serious Health Concerns WHO Concludes ~ 8, Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; Most in Asia Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. No Evidence of a Threshold PAPA Project Indicates Similar Effects in Asia Ozone, NO 2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns Emissions Standards Trends For Gasoline Cars Nitrogen Oxides g/km US EU Japan

2 Tax Incentives for Low Emission Vehicles and High Fuel Economy Vehicles (24-25) Fuel economy Emissions+ Vehicles: achieving fuel economy standard in 21 Vehicles: 5% higher fuel economy than the standard in 21 : 5% lower emission vehicles No incentives *25% annual tax reduction *2, yen purchase tax deduction : 75% lower emission vehicles *25% annual tax reduction *2, yen purchase tax deduction *5% annual tax reduction *3, yen purchase tax deduction +: compared to the new long-term standard in 25 PM)g/kWh) Comparison of Future Emission Standards on HD vehicles Around JAPAN US 3.2 EU 3.5 PM)g/kWh) NOx(g/kWh) (Challenge target) About 1/3 of.7 US (21~).27 Around JAPAN (Draft) 1.6 EU(28~) US(27~) 2. NOx(g/kWh) Costs & Benefits of Clean Fuels and Vehicles Tier 2 Light-duty highway Heavy-duty highway Tier 4 nonroad cost benefit Total Cost: $11 billion Total Benefits: $175 billion Worldwide Motorcycle Emission Regulations Europe EU II (23) ECE4 Cold Start HC: 1. NOx:.3 CO: 3. EU III (26) HC:.8 NOx:.15 CO: 2. 3, km China II Stage (24) ECE4 HC: 1.2 NOx:.3 CO: 5.5 1, km India II Stage (25) IDC Cold Start HC+NOx:1.5 CO: 1.5 3, km III Stage (28) HC+NOx:1.~1.25 CO: 1.~1.25 Japan (26/27) ECE4 Cold Start HC:.3/.5 NOx:.15 CO: 2. 12,/24, km Taiwan IV Stage (24) ECE4 Cold Start HC+NOx:2. CO: 7. 15, km $ Billion Annually in 23

3 ppm Air Quality Trends in California ( 1-hour Peak Indicator ) Ozone Nitrogen Dioxide California PM1 Air Quality Trend ( Maximum Annual Average of Quarters ) µ g / m New Light Duty Vehicle Sales Forecast By Country/Region Global Trends in Vehicle Kilometers Traveled Millions Global Road Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (1^12)) Africa Latin America Middle East India Other Asia China Eastern Europe FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Minibuses Buses 3-Wheeler 2-Wheeler Hvy Truck MED Tr LDDV LDGV Source: WBCSD Source: WBCSD

4 Developing Countries Which Have Adopted US Or EU Standards For New Vehicles Population Vehicle Population Not Adopted 35.% Not Adopted 29.% Adopted 65.% Adopted 71.% The Challenges: Eliminate The Yellow Colored Areas Narrow the Technology/Fuel Quality Gap in Blue Areas China 25 Chinese Vehicle Population Has Been Exploding (million) 12 HARBIN China New Vehicle Sales 2 15 Total Vehicle Private Vehicle Annual Growth Rate 11.6% 8 SHENYANG BEIJING ÜRÜMQI TIANJIN LANZHOU XI AN SHANGHAI WUHAN LHASA CHENGDU GUANGZHOU Cars, Trucks & Buses China 9.4% ROW 9.6% ROW 57.% Motorcycles & Scooters China 43.% 1 5 Annual Growth Rate 23.% Plus Approximately 5 Million Motorcycles And Over 2 Million Agricultural Vehicles

5 Growth in Annual Vehicle Production Has Been Even Faster (million) 4 3 Total Cars Annual Growth Rate 16.7% Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, Annual Growth Rate 31.8% By The End of 23, China Has Become The 4 th Largest Producer In The World E:\Changhong CHEN\ 对外合作 \ 能源基金会 \ 交通项目 \ 基础数据 \ 机动车统计报表.xls Vehicle Growth in Beijing is Exploding 机动车保有量 ( 万辆 ) 北京机动车增长情况 1st 1M for 48 years 2nd 1M for 6 years 3rd 1M for only 3 years? Control Measures on Motor Vehicle Pollution Emission Standards For New Vehicles Time Before Category PC ECE 153 EURO I EURO II LDV& LDT ECE 153 EURO I EURO II HDDV None EURO I EURO II Motorcycle ECE R 4 EURO I EURO II 年份 Source: He Kebin Beijing, Shanghai already Introduced Euro 2 in 23

6 China Fuel Consumption Standards MT Cars What s In Play in China Fuel Consumption ÓͺÄ(L/1km) (L/1km) 16 第一阶 Phase I段限值第二阶 Phase II 段限值 14 一般 Existing M1 类车 Models 整备 Curb 质量 Mass ((Kg) kg) Phase I will be effective in July 25 Phase II will be effective in July 28 Nationally-SEPA Mobile Sources Developing 11 th Five Year Plan Document Putting Strong Environmental Case Together For Euro 4 Stds & Fuels Euro 3 in 27, Euro 4 in 21 likely April? Trying to Get Sulfur Issue to State Council Soon Fuels Workshop in July with US EPA Beijing EPB Likely Euro 3 Gasoline, Euro 4 Diesel in 25/6 Cleaner Fuels Adopted For July 1, 25 Interested in Accelerating Euro 4 before Olympics Retrofit Demonstration with US EPA Shanghai, Guangzhou EPB Also Interested in Leapfrogging India New Vehicle Standards in India India New Vehicle Sales Cars, Trucks & Buses Motorcycles & Scooters India India 2.2% 16.9% ROW ROW 83.1% 97.8% Entire Country Euro 2 April 25 Euro 3 April 21 Major Cities Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Already Euro 2 Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehicles Euro 3 From April 25 Euro 4 From April 21 Entire country at 5 PPM Sulfur this year Largest Reliance refinery at 1 PPM

7 Brazil New Vehicle Sales Brazil New Vehicle Sales Brazil 3.4% ROW 96.6% Brazil Passenger Cars & Light Commercial Vehicles US EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997 Tier 1 Phased in (4/7/1%) FedLev in 29 No Diesel Cars Allowed Heavy Duty Trucks & Buses Euro 3 Phased in Euro 4 in 29 Fuels Diesel Fuel S in City from 2 to 5 in 25 & to 5 in 29; on rural areas from 35 to 2 in 25 & to 5 in 29 Gasoline S from 1 to 4 in 24 & to 8 in 28 State of Sao Paulo Gearing Up To Push Sulfur Issue Global Distribution of Emissions Controls New Gasoline Cars () No Controls No Controls 3.4% 3.5% Engine Modifications Euro4/LEV 3.5% Euro5/LEV2 2.2% 1.8% TWC 2.1% Euro4/LEV Euro3/Tier 1 59.% 7.8% Engine Modifications 1.% TWC Engine Modifications No Controls 2.1% 3.8% 2.7% Euro3/Tier 1 TWC 13.2% 24.1% Euro5/LEV2 Euro4/LEV Euro3/Tier % 18.9% 7.8% 215 TWC Engine Modifications.5%.6% Euro3/Tier 1 No Controls 8.7% 3.1% Euro4/LEV 8.9% Euro5/LEV2 78.1% 22 TWC.6% Engine Modifications.7% Euro3/Tier 1 1.9% No Controls 3.6% Euro4/LEV 8.3% Euro5/LEV2 84.8%

8 Forecasting Emissions WBCSD Vehicle Growth Forecasts Aggregate Countries into Three Categories Industrialized (OECD) Rapidly Developing (Most of Asia) Developing (The Remainder) US EPA Emissions Factors by Technology Category GWP s from CARB and Mark DeLucchi Two Scenarios Business As Usual Currently Adopted or Soon To Be adopted Emissions Standards Industrialized Countries HFC Control (see Richard Corey presentation) 5% by 215 9% by 22 More Aggressive Standards RICs on par with industrialized by 215 Developing on par by 22 VMT Held Constant in Both (WBCSD) No TCMs Vehicle Emissions Trends (Business As Usual Scenario) Vehicle Emissions Trends (Aggressive Scenario) Normalized to 2 3 THC NOx 2.5 CO PM 2 N2O CH4 HFC OC Normalized to 2 3 THC NOx 2.5 CO PM 2 N2O CH4 HFC OC

9 Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading PPM US 26 EU 25 EU 25-9 Denmark Sweden Class 1 Germany 23 Japan 24 Japan 25 Hong Kong South Korea 26 Taiwan 25 Australia 26 Thailand 21 Santiago, Chile 24 Singapore 26 SOx Tons/Year SOX Emissions From Road Vehicles () Business as Usual Aggressive Scenario Approaches To Global Warming Potential CARB CEF CO2 1 1 CO NOx 4.4 N2O CH HFC 1,3/12 125/115 BC 242 NMHC OC -23 SOx -45 Thousands CO2 Equivalent Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases From Road Vehicles Business as Usual Aggressive 1 2, 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,15 2,25 2,35 2,45

10 Thousands GWP Using the CEF Non-CO2 Approach Business as Usual Aggressive Strategy g CO2/km - Converted to NEDC Test Cycle Comparison of fleet average GHG emission standards standardized by gco 2 /km for new light-duty vehicles US China Canada Australia California 1 14 Japan 12 EU 5 2, 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,15 2,25 2,35 2, Source: Feng An, Sauer Carbon Dioxide Scenarios WBCSD Base Case Aggressive Case ROW On A Par with Europe by 225 Europe Continues Steady Progress to 25 No Prescription for Diesels, Hybrids, Fuel Cells, Alt Fuels Etc l/1km Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption 3 2 LDGV Base LDGV FE Case LDDV Base Case LDDV FE Case

11 Engine Technologies with Potential to Reduce GHGs 5,4 or 3 valves per cylinder variable valve timing idle stop/start cylinder deactivation variable compression ratio variable displacement advanced IC engines (diesel, DI gas) Other Technologies which Could Reduce Vehicle GHGs Transmissions lockup 6/5/4 speed automatically shifted manuals CVTs Advanced Powertrains integrated starter alternatives hybrids fuel cells Technologies That Reduce Methane or Nitrous Oxide Relatively high global warming potential compared to carbon dioxide Catalyst modifications have been demonstrated that reduce methane emissions Nitrous oxide emissions may also be reduced through catalyst modifications Technologies That Reduce HFC Emissions Better materials and fittings can reduce leakage (5% Reduction Possible) Alternative refrigerants with lower global warming potential R152a, CO 2 (9 % Reduction Possible) Variable displacement compressors reduce system energy requirements, leading to lower CO 2 emissions

12 Contrasting Approaches To Reducing Emissions Issues/Conclusions Action Agenda Conventional Pollutants 197 CAA mandatory technology forcing standards for Light Duty Vehicles Now Underway for Trucks Vehicles improved more than order of magnitude in one generation Greenhouse Gases or Fuel Economy Standards only based on what is on the shelf until recently Many technology advances Used for Power or Performance Only Now Are We starting To Push the Technology Envelope Aircraft & Marine Need To Be Addressed Technical Solutions to Conventional Pollution & Non CO2 Greenhouse Gases Are Available and Just Need To Be Applied & Accelerated in Developing World Carbon Dioxide Remains Difficult Issue But Not Because Technical or Policy Options Are Not Available GHG Standards Should Be Mandated For All Vehicle Categories Pushing The Technology Envelope Providing Sufficient Lead Time Fuels Technologies May Have Important Role Transportation Controls, BRT systems, etc Also Need To Be Part of the Solution