Pollutant emissions from the ROAD TRANSPORT sector - global and regional technology perspectives

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1 Pollutant emissions from the ROAD TRANSPORT sector - global and regional technology perspectives Contribution to the HTAP workshop Laxenburg/AT 8 Oct 2012 Jens Borken-Kleefeld, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

2 Emissions road transport to global Trends in global emissions Share road/non-road sectors in global emissions 2005 BC CO NOx Road emissions most relevant for NOx & BC (diesel engines) and CO (gasoline engines)

3 Emissions road transport to global Global NOx emissions by vehicle category Share road/non-road sectors in global emissions 2005 Bus Trucks Diesel LDV Gasoline LDV Most relevant for NOx emissions Trucks!!! + Bus (=HDV) Gasoline LDV declining Diesel LDV Road emissions most relevant for NOx & BC (diesel engines) and CO (gasoline engines)

4 NOx trends by region NOx CHN, SEA4, IND,,other Middle East US, EUR, other OECD Biggest source regions for NOx OECD: US + EUR Asia: CHN, SEA4, IND Middle East!

5 NOx trends by region: Trucks g/mj avg. EF What hinders? Middle East no further controls scen. fuel consumption Current legislation scen. What hinders? Should go down to EURO IV, i.e. -50% Avg. EF declines by 80% in US & EUR what s needed in other regions? Globally, growth offsets reduction in emission factor

6 NOx trends by region: Gasoline cars g/mj Middle East avg. EF no further controls scen. fuel consumption Current legislation scen. (EURO) standards leads to strong decline in emissions in all regions.

7 BC: Emissions road transport to global Global BC emissions by vehicle category Share road/non-road sectors in global emissions 2005 Non-exhaust Bus Trucks Diesel LDV Gasoline LDV Most relevant for BC emissions Trucks Diesel LDV Road emissions most relevant for NOx & BC (diesel engines) and CO (gasoline engines)

8 BC trends by region BC US, EUR, other OECD CHN, SEA4, IND,,other Middle East Biggest source regions for BC OECD: US + EUR Asia: CHN, SEA4, IND Middle East!

9 BC trends by region: Trucks g/mj Middle East avg. EF no further controls scen. fuel consumption Current legislation scen. What hinders? Avg. EF declines by 99% in US & EUR what s needed in other regions?

10 BC trends by region: Diesel LDV g/mj Why not less? Middle East avg. EF no further controls scen. fuel consumption Current legislation scen. Why not less? What hinders? Why not less? Avg. EF declines by 98% in US & EUR why not similar in other regions?

11 CO: Emissions road transport to global Global CO emissions by vehicle category Share road/non-road sectors in global emissions 2005 Diesel LDV, trucks, bus Gasoline LDV Mopeds, scooters, motorcycles Most relevant for CO emissions Mopeds + motorcycles growing! Gasoline LDV - declining Road emissions most relevant for NOx & BC (diesel engines) and CO (gasoline engines)

12 CO trends by region CO CHN 2-wheels US, EUR, other OECD Middle East CHN, SEA4, IND, other cars OECD Biggest source regions for CO Asia: CHN, SEA4, IND -> 2-wheelers OECD: US + EUR-> cars

13 Legislation on mobile sources in Asia * Country European Union Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Bangladesh e Euro 2 Bangladesh f Euro 1 Hong Kong, China Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 India a Euro 1 Euro 2 E3 India b E1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Indonesia Euro 2 Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2 E4 Nepal Euro 1 Philippines Euro 1 PRC a Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 E4 PRC c Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 E4 Singapore e Euro 1 Euro 2 Singapore f Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 Sri Lanka Euro 1 Taipei,China US Tier 1 US Tier 2 for diesel d Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Viet Nam Euro 2

14 Penetration of new technologies HDT CHINA HDT Germany

15 Issues for discussion 1. Recommendations for current-policy scenario? IEA on petroleum, electric & fuel cell (<0.1%) ok til Alternative assumptions on possible controls Level of Euro 4/IV, 5/V, 6/VI? Penetration rates for new technologies? Fuel qualities ready in time? Phase-out and lifetime of old vehicles? High-emitters!? Impact of local/city policies on national level? Institutional advances/deficits Certification & in-use compliance / durability effective? Inspection & maintenance programs effective? Mismatch between certification and real-world driving? 3. Longer-term research needs?

16 Backup slides

17 NOx: Road transport emissions by region NOx Avg. NOx EF Trucks IND US, EUR, other OECD CHN, SEA4, IND,,other Middle East SEA MEA BRA MEX CHN RUS USA JPN Biggest source regions for NOx OECD: US + EUR Asia: CHN, SEA4, IND Middle East!

18 NOx trends by region: Diesel LDV Should go down to EURO 4, i.e. -50% Middle East avg. EF g/mj no further controls scen. fuel consumption Current legislation scen. Should go down to EURO 4, i.e. -50% Should go down to EURO 4, i.e. -50% Tighter standards strong decline in OECD why not elsewhere? However, total emissions 5 times lower than from trucks!

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