Modeling Investigation of Energy Use and Air Emissions from Urban Transportation Sector

Transcription

1 Modeling Investigation of Energy Use and Air Emissions from Urban Transportation Sector Prof. Kebin HE Tsinghua University Workshop of IGES/APN Mega-City Project January 23-24, 2002, Kitakyushu, Japan

2 Contents Background Methodology Scenarios Results and analysis Conclusions

3 Background

4 Urbanization level in China Accelerated urbanization progress after 1978 Urbanization level increased from 17.92% in 1978 to 30.89% in 1999, and is expected to reach 50% by Higher growth rates is experienced in the east coastal provinces Urbanization Level (% Year

5 Highly urbanized regions in China JingJinTang Region Beijing (60%) and Tianjin (58%) are the dominant cities Yangtze River Delta Shanghai (73%) is the dominant city Pearl River Delta Guangzhou (80%) is the dominant city

6 Percentage of each pollutants as weekly major pollutant in 41 key cities in 1999 JingJinTang Region Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta

7 Methodology

8 Methodology A Spreadsheet Model is developed The objective of the model Project the environmental impact of transport sector Evaluate the present or future strategies and policies Provide useful information for integration analysis of sustainable urban development

9 About the model A multiple-page Excel spreadsheet Table-formatted inputs and calculations A graphical display for presenting results Based on different scenarios, the models provide a year-by-year estimate of fuel consumption and emissions

10 Vehicle classification Light duty gasoline vehicle (LDGV) Light duty diesel vehicle (LDDV) Light duty gasoline trucks 1 (LDGT1) Light duty gasoline trucks 2 (LDGT2) Light duty diesel trucks (LDDT) Heavy duty gasoline vehicles (HDGV) Heavy duty diesel vehicles (HDDV) Motorcycle (MC)

11 Input and output of the model Data requirement Information about Vehicle population ( ) Travel mileage ( ) Fuel economy of new vehicles ( ) Emission factors of new vehicles ( ) Deterioration level of fuel economy and emission factors ( ) Output of the Model Fuel consumption ( ) Gasoline, Diesel Emission amount ( ) CO, NO x, HC, SO 2, PM 10, CO 2

12 Methodology of the model Vehicle population Vehicle Scrappage Vehicle growth rate Emission factor of new vehicle and deterioration ratio Fuel specification New Vehicle population Vehicle population Fuel economy of new vehicle and deterioration ratio Average emission factor Average Mileage Travelled Average fuel economy Pollutants emission amount Fuel consumption

13 Calculation method of Average Fuel Economy : AFE n 15 i = 1 = ( i i VP NFE DFE ) n VP n i + 1 n n -i + 1 n year; i vehicle age; AFE n average fuel economy in year n; VP n vehicle population in year n; VP i n number of vehicles with age of i in year n; NFE n fuel economy of new vehicles in year n; DFE i n fuel economy deterioration level of vehicles which are initially used in year n and have age of i.

14 Calculation method of Average Emission Factor : For NO x, CO, HC and PM 10 AEF n = NVP n NEF n + 15 n 1 n 15 n 1 n i= 1 [ ] ( i VP NVP AFE + VP DEF ) VP n n-i+ 1 AEF n average emission factor in year n; NEF n emission factor of new vehicles in year n; DEF i n emission deterioration level of vehicles which initially used in year n.

15 Emission factors of SO 2 and CO 2 : SO CO 2 = S f ( f EF ) = HC C EFCO SO 2 emission factor of SO 2,, g/km; S sulfur content of the vehicular fuel; f fuel efficiency, g/km; 64, 32 molecular weight of [SO 2 ] and [S]; CO 2 emission factor of CO 2, g/km; C carbon content of the vehicular fuel; EF HC, EF CO emission factor of HC and CO respectively, g/km; 12, 28, 44 molecular weight of [C], [CO] and [CO 2 ]

16 Scenarios (Beijing Case)

17 Vehicle population (million) LDGV LDGT1 LDDT HDDV LDDV LDGT2 HDGV MC

18 Projections for fuel economy and emission factors of the future new vehicles Fuel economy: For LDGV, LDDV, LDGT1 and LDDT, it will reach the current level of Japan or Europe in 2020 and the government will implement related standards in 2003, 2008, 2013 and For LDGT2, HDGV and HDDV, it will improve 1.0% annually. For MC, it will improve 0.8% annually. Emission factors: Four sets of new emission standards 2003 EURO 2; 2007 EURO 3; 2010 EURO 4; 2015 EURO 5

19 Fuel economy of new vehicles L/100Km LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC

20 Emission factors of new vehicles g/km NOx CO HC

21 Base year (1998) average emission factors in Beijing (g/km) NO x CO HC PM 10 LDGV LDDV LDGT LDGT LDDT HDGV HDDV MC

22 Deterioration level of fuel economy Current level: Future assumptions: Decline 0.5% per year during 2000 and 2010 Decline 0.4% per year during 2010 and 2020

23 Deterioration level of emission factors Current level: Future assumption: Stabilize at the current level

24 Sulfur content in the fuel ppm gasoline diesel

25 Results and analysis

26 Age distribution of All Vehicle

27 Fuel consumption

28 Average fuel economy L/100Km LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC

29 Fuel Consumption by type (10 4 tons) MC HDDV HDGV LDDT LDGT2 LDGT1 LDDV LDGV Fuel consumption increased by 3.6 times from 1995 to 2020

30 Percentage of fuel consumption by type 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% MC HDDV HDGV LDDT LDGT2 LDGT1 LDDV LDGV LDGT2 occupies only 10% of the total vehicles but consume 35% of the fuel The percentage of LDGVs increased from 9% in 1995 to 20% in 2020

31 Vehicular emission

32 Average emission factors (g/km) NO x LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC HC LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC CO LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC

33 NO x emission by types (10 4 tons) NOx LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC

34 HC emission by types (10 4 tons) HC LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC

35 CO emission by types (10 4 tons) CO LDGV LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV MC

36 Total pollutant emission amount (10 4 tons) NO x PM CO CO HC SO

37 Conclusions

38 Conclusion A Spreadsheet Model is developed The model can Evaluate the energy use and emissions of transportation sector Provide useful information for integration analysis of sustainable urban development

39 Conclusions Fuel consumption Will increase by 3.6 times from 1995 to 2020 LDGT2 occupies only 10% of the total vehicles but consume 35% of the fuel The percentage of LDGVs will increase from 9% in 1995 to 20% in 2020 Recommended strategies LDGT2 and LDGVs are key control objects for oil saving

40 Conclusions Vehicular Emissions Emissions of NOx, CO, and HC increase by 15%, 26%, and 49% % respectively from to 2020 The largest emission amount occurs during 2000 and 2010 Recommended strategies Depend only on the measures for new vehicles control is not enough Great efforts are needed on in-use vehicles control

41 Conclusions Significant role of LDGVs in vehicular emission Emission amount of LDGVs increase rapidly; In 2010, LDGVs become the largest contributor on CO and HC emission; In 2020, LDGVs will produce 39% of CO and 40% of HC emission. Recommended strategies The travel mileage of LGDVs should be further reduced Efficient public transport system should be planned

42 THANKS

43 Four Modules: Transportation Module Energy Consumption Module Emission Module Air Quality Module

44 Scenarios for vehicle targeted measures, fuel-targeted measures, and transport system measures No Meet VKT Demand Transport mode E n e r g y consumption Emissions Air quality Meet environ. Requirement? GIS support system Yes Non-motorized vehicles Motorized vehicles Emission factors Traffic flow distribution P o l i c y directions Walk Bicycle Railway Roadway Cars LDV HDGV Light rail Subway HDDV

45 (6) (1999) (1999) (6) NOx NOx

46 (9) (1999) (1999) (9)