EURO 6d Diesel Performance & Impact on Urban Air Quality

Transcription

1 John Cooper Director General EURO 6d Diesel Performance & Impact on Urban Air Quality

2 Conclusions from Ricardo & AERIS studies EURO 6d vehicles tested by Ricardo under «RDE conditions» are compliant with the EU emissions limits for NOx and PM. AERIS modelling shows that by 2030 there is almost no difference in population exposure between the Zero Emission Vehicle scenario and the progressive replacement of diesel vehicles by Euro 6d diesel standard. As a result, replacing all new diesel vehicles by zero emission vehicles (tailpipe) will offer little improvement to the compliance outlook compared with the Euro6d scenario. Page 2

3 Findings from Ricardo & AERIS studies Page 3

4 Ricardo plc 2017 Expected Light Duty Vehicle Emissions from Final Stages of Euro 6 EU Refining Forum - 1 December 2017 Dr Nick Powell

5 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Euro 6 Legislation Summary The New European Drive Cycle (NEDC), used since the 1990s, requires relatively light load and low speed engine operating conditions Drive cycles used for Euro 6 passenger cars Drive Cycle Duration (s) Average Speed (km/h) Maximum Speed (km/h) Maximum Acceleration (m/s 2 ) NEDC Source: EU Regulation, Ricardo

6 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Euro 6 Legislation Summary The Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Cycle (WLTC) is more representative of real world driving conditions than NEDC Drive cycles used for Euro 6 passenger cars Drive Cycle Duration (s) Average Speed (km/h) Maximum Speed (km/h) Maximum Acceleration (m/s 2 ) NEDC WLTC RDE and WLTC have Increased number & magnitude of accelerations Higher maximum speeds Source: EU Regulation, Ricardo

7 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Euro 6 Legislation Summary An RDE cycle is complementary to the WLTC, testing vehicles on real roads under realistic driving conditions Drive cycles used for Euro 6 passenger cars Drive Cycle Source: EU Regulation, Ricardo Duration (s) Average Speed (km/h) Maximum Speed (km/h) Maximum Acceleration (m/s 2 ) NEDC WLTC RDE Ricardo s RDE cycle is an example of a valid high speed and high dynamic RDE test RDE and WLTC have Increased number & magnitude of accelerations Higher maximum speeds Environmental conditions Moderate RDE : 0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude Representative of most normal driving Extended RDE : -7 C to 35 C and 1300m altitude

8 Ricardo plc 2017 Load Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Euro 6 Legislation Summary The implementation of WLTC and RDE from 2017 will extend the engine speed and load conditions at which emissions are regulated The New Engine Drive Cycle (NEDC) Light load and low speed engine WLTC NEDC RDE The Worldwide harmonised Light vehicles Test Cycle (WLTC) Emissions control over wider speed load range Speed Real Driving Emissions (RDE) Measured on-road using Portable Emissions Measurement System (PEMS) In real road and traffic conditions

9 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020

10 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020

11 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020 Post 2015 vehicles which meet Euro 6 NOx levels under at least one real driving test cycle

12 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020 Post 2015 vehicles which meet Euro 6 NOx levels under at least one real driving test cycle

13 Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q RD E 1 December Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Ricardo opinion Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 Post 2015 vehicles which meet Euro 6 NOx levels under at least one real driving test cycle September 2017 December 2019 January 2020 Parity between WLTC and RDE expected

14 An analysis of future Urban Air Quality Compliance - Real Driving Emissions and EV Scenarios Chris Boocock, Senior Analyst Aeris Europe Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 14

15 PM 2.5 Emissions inventory by technology level for Personal Cars Diesel in Germany by scenario - Ricardo Median and ZEV post-2020 Pre_Euro Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4 Euro5 Euro6 Non_Exhaust (kt) 14 Ricardo Median 14 ZEV Scenario Beyond 2020, non-exhaust emissions dominate transport PM emissions Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 15

16 NO 2 Emissions inventory by technology level for Personal Cars Diesel in Germany by scenario - Ricardo Median and ZEV post-2020 (kt) Pre_Euro Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4 Euro5 Euro6 Ricardo Median ZEV Scenario Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 16

17 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) NO 2 Range of Maximum Concentration Across all Stations in EU Total number of stations for NO 2 = 2392 Median Ricardo ZEV Limit Value Measuring station with highest NO 2 concentration does not show any significant improvement in Zero Emission Vehicle scenario. 24 stations (1%) are non-compliant % 91% 97% 97% Percentage of stations in compliance 99% 99% 99% % Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 17

18 NO 2 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) NO 2 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Air Quality benefit of ZEV Scenario Highest measuring stations show ~ zero response to ZEV scenario: 90 Munich - Highest AQ Station 120 Paris - Highest AQ Station To address remaining exceedances, we need to understand the source attribution at each location Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 18

19 Samples of UK DEFRA NO 2 Source Attribution for London s Hot Spots Road Census ID: NO 2 = 71 µg/m3 Bus 9% PCD 14% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 19

20 Samples of UK DEFRA NO 2 Source Attribution for London s Hot Spots Road Census ID: NO 2 =66 µg/m 3 Bus 28% PCD 1% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 20

21 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology* Paris % Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% => Traffic station => Background station 0% * Exceedance of air quality standards in urban areas EEA annually reviewed indicator Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 21 20% 10%

22 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Paris % Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 22

23 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Paris % Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Remaining hot spots will require targeted measures based on the emission source to make them compliant 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 23

24 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich % Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 24

25 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich % Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 25

26 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich % Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Remaining hot spot will require targeted measures based on the emission source to make it compliant 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 26

27 Summary Based on Ricardo s estimates for EURO 6d emission levels under RDE conditions, compliance with current air quality regulated emission limits will be largely achieved by 2025/30 For NO2, in 2020 approx. 4% of monitoring stations are assessed to be non-compliant, and by 2025 this reduces to 2%. By % of the stations remain uncompliant, in both scenarios (Ricardo Median & ZEV). Diesel PM exhaust is a diminishingly small contributor to Urban Air Quality Brake & tyre wear dominates primary PM emissions from passenger cars regardless of the powertrain technology. AERIS modelling shows that by 2030 there is no difference in population exposure between the ZEV scenario and the Ricardo Median scenario. Using London as a case study, extensive modelling work by DEFRA highlights the importance of source attribution in designing effective local responses to address the remaining hotspots. Conclusion: AERIS modelling shows that, from 2020 onwards, replacing all new diesel vehicles by zero emission vehicles (tailpipe) will offer little improvement to the compliance outlook compared with the Ricardo Median Euro6d scenario Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 27

28 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION This document was presented by John Cooper, Director General FuelsEurope 165, Boulevard du Souverain 1160 Brussels - Belgium T: Follow us: fuelseurope