Clean Fuels for Asia. Bert Fabian

Transcription

1 Clean Fuels for Asia Bert Fabian Transport Unit Head, Cebu, Philippines Jan 2008 Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia Program

2 Urban Air Quality Levels in Asia Air quality in Asia is improving but still far above WHO limits PM is main pollutant of concern WHO (1979) TSP guideline, 60-90μg/m 3 WHO (2005) SO 2 24-hour guideline, 20μg/m 3 WHO NO 2 guideline, 40μg/m 3 WHO (2005) PM10 guideline, 20μg/m Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, μg/m 3 (1993 to 2005) TSP PM10 SO2 NO2 Linear (TSP) Linear (PM10) Linear (SO2) Linear (NO2) Source: CAI-Asia,

3 Economic Growth and Air Pollution Trend: Asia Electricity Generation, 129% Energy Consumption, 79% GDP (constant 1990), 65% GDP per cap, 45% Urban population share, 25% I N C R E A S E NO 2, - 14% PM 10, - 20% TSP, - 25% SO 2, - 32% DECREAS E Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June UN DESA -

4 Vehicle Growth Forecast in Asian Countries (in Millions of Vehicles) PR China India Thailand Indonesia Note: Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y Ltd

5 Vehicle Emission Standards in Asia (new light-duty vehicles) Notes: Italics under discussion; a gasoline; b Diesel; c Entire country; d Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hydrabad, Agra, Surat, Pune, Kanpur, Ahmedabad, Sholapur, Lucknow; Other cities in India are in Euro 2; e Beijing and Guangzhou (as of 01 September 2006) have adopted Euro 3 standards; Shanghai has requested the approval of the State Council for implementation of Euro 3; f Euro 4 for gasoline vehicles and California ULEV standards for diesel vehicles; g As per government regulation from Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources h Gasoline vehicles under consideration Source: CAI-Asia. 2008, January. Emission standards for new vehicles (light duty). Available:

6 Fuel Quality Standards in Asia (levels of sulfur in diesel) Bangladesh 5000 Cambodia Hong Kong, China a India (nationwide) India (metros) a 50 a Indonesia Japan b Malaysia c 500 d 50a Pakistan c Philippines PRC (nationwide) e 50 a PRC - Beijing a Republic of Korea (10) f Singapore Sri Lanka d 500 Taipei,China Thailand Viet Nam European Union (10) f 10 United States Source: CAI-Asia, 2007 Dec > 500 ppm ppm < 50 ppm

7 Integrated Approach Fuels and vehicles are part of an overall, wider, air quality context AQM efforts will usually also include activities aimed at reducing emissions from stationary sources and area sources Emission reduction from mobile sources will also have to include I/M and transport demand oriented measures The absence of detailed emission inventories and source apportionment studies should not prevent Asian countries from developing cleaner fuel roadmaps Fuels and vehicles are an integrated system

8 Fuel Specifications (1) Fuel quality does not only influence emissions but also drivability, engine wear and fuel efficiency Supportive research for fuel specifications has been well established and generally there is no need for Asian countries to replicate such research Asian countries should implement all fuel parameters as defined in fuel specifications linked to European emission specifications Asian countries with warm climate can apply variation in RVP In some cases the adoption of a comprehensive set of fuel properties will delay the introduction of cleaner fuels substantially. In such cases the option to reduce sulfur first may be considered

9 Fuel Specifications (2) Leapfrog from Euro 2 to Euro 4 emission standards makes good technical and financial sense Some Asian countries where air pollution from transport is severe should consider Euro 5 standards Asian countries with large domestic refining capacity can consider applying US flexibility principle. Importing countries should not do so. Fuel quality monitoring is essential, especially where different fuel standards exist in the same country

10 Octane Enhancing Additives (1) Use of oxygenates or additives, like MTBE, ETBE, TAME, Ethanol, MMT, Ferrocene, etc. to enhance octane in gasoline has become relevant after the phase out of leaded gasoline in Asian countries Concerns have been raised on the health and/or environmental impacts of especially MMT, Ferrocene and other ash-forming metal based additives The preferred long-term solution is to update and enhance refinery capacity without the need to use metallic or oxygenate octane enhancing additives

11 Octane Enhancing Additives (2) In the short term, if octane enhancement is needed prior to such investments: Use of MTBE, ETBE and TAME should be limited to maximum allowable concentrations to 2.7% (mass O 2 ) and respectively 15%, 17.1% and 16.6% by volume Ethanol blending should be limited to 10% by volume and 3.7% by mass Use of MMT and Ferrocene should be discouraged because of potential health concerns and potential impacts on vehicle emissions and emissions systems components If Asian countries do decide to authorize the use of MMT, ferrocene, or other ash forming metal based additives to raise octane, they should make this decision on a refinery-byrefinery permit basis, with a clear time table for phase out

12 Timing of Introduction of Cleaner Fuels Technology for fuel improvement is well established and can be applied in Asia on a no-risk basis Euro 4 Vehicle technology well established in Asia Maximum lead time to move to Euro 4 or stricter is 4-6 years but in many cases can be shorter Import of Euro 4 fuels can be considered pending the construction or modification of refineries to shorten the lead time for introduction of cleaner standards Refinery expansion in Asia should be based on Euro 4 or stricter standards

13 Cleaner Fuels and In-use Vehicles Main driver for cleaner fuels are new vehicles, there is an impact on in-use vehicles as well but more research required on the impact of cleaner fuels on in-use vehicles Cleaner fuels, especially with less than 50 ppm sulfur allow for retrofit of gross polluting diesel vehicles: Technology is established now and pilot projects have demonstrated impact Current cost levels justify focus on retrofit of high use fleet vehicles Alternative approach of dealing with gross polluting vehicles remains phase out.

14 Introduction Scenarios Uniform introduction across country: Advantages in terms of AQ impact provided specifications are strict enough High short term costs to refining sector Avoids misfueling Flexibility provision for special markets (off-road and stationary) Prioritized introduction in selected cities: Can be considered for large countries, e.g. India and China Requires availability segregated fuel marketing and distribution system Price differential whereby cleaner fuel should be cheaper Fuel quality monitoring important to ensure misfueling Harmonized standards across Asia: Security of availability of cleaner fuels Reduction in complexity for the vehicle industry

15 Facilitation of Introduction of Cleaner Fuels Fuel quality regulations, combined with emission standards should be the backbone of any policy or strategy on cleaner fuels Government policy to accelerate production or uptake of cleaner fuels Public outreach and consensus building Combination of tax and pricing policies Temporary incentives can be used to speed up acceleration of market uptake of cleaner fuels Cost for producing cleaner fuels needs to be passed on to consumer Controlled pricing, still prevalent in some Asian markets precludes the opportunity to pass on costs Increasing Asian markets are being deregulated opening up the possibility to pass on costs

16 For more information, please contact Cornie Huizenga, Executive Director Bert Fabian, Transport Unit Head Au Ables, Transport Specialist Unit 3510, 35 th Floor, Robinsons-Equitable Tower, ADB Avenue, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines