Outline. Research Questions. Electric Scooters in Viet Nam and India: Factors Influencing (lack of) Adoption and Environmental Implications 11/4/2009

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1 Electric Scooters in Viet Nam and India: Factors Influencing (lack of) Adoption and Environmental Implications Christopher Cherry Assistant Professor-Civil and Environmental Engineering Luke Jones PhD Student-Economics Oct 30, 2009 SUMA Summit Outline Short Background Market Influences Environmental Impact Scenarios Recommendations Research Questions Why do people use e-bikes in China? Why aren t e-scooters adopted in other Asian countries as they are in China? What factors could influence higher adoption? What are some environmental benefits of various adoption scenarios? Can we observe changes over time in the way people use e-bikes? 2006-Surveyed more than 1200 bicycle and e-bike users 2008-Surveyed more than 700 e-bike users Scooter style electric bike (SSEB) Bicycle style electric bike (BSEB) 1

2 Alternative ModesModes-Chinese Cities Why did you choose e-bike (Kunming)? Shijiazhuang 2006 Shanghai What was your mode before choosing an e-bike? 45% % % Kunming % 2008 Kunming % 8 bus car Bicycle walk taxi company bus motorcycle subway no trip other What mode of transportation would you choose if e-bike became unav ailable? Why so few outside China? Motivation/Methods Observation in Vietnam and India Private transport dominated by motorcycles Hanoi 1.5 million registered motorcycles for a population of 3 million people 65% of all vehicular trips of all PKT by motorbike Ahmedabad 30- of all trips Research Goals Explore factors that limit adoption of e-scooters in Hanoi and Ahmedabad Gain insight into the ability of technological improvements and tax incentives to overcome these impediments Estimate e-scooter demand potential in Hanoi and Ahmedabad Estimate Env. Impacts of Mode Shift Scenarios Need for experimental methods Evaluation of a product with very little market share Evaluation of a policy that has yet to be implemented Stated Preference Choice Modeling 2

3 Stated Preference Survey Target Population: Market for two-wheeled motorized vehicles in Hanoi Filter question indicates 95% of sample in market Hanoi: Stratified Random Sample of 400 Households Ahmedabad: Intercept Survey of 1000 Individuals Section 1: choice questions Section 2: demographics and motorcycle use Figure 1. Sample Choice Question Suppose the following three options are the only available alternatives for purchasing a two-wheeled motorized vehicle. Please indicate which vehicle you prefer by checking one of the boxes below. Standard Gas Motorcycle Large Gas Motorcycle Electric Scooter Purchase Price 10 million VND 15 million VND 8 million VND Refuel Range 100 km 200 km 120 km Refuel/Recharge Time 5 min. 10 min. 30 min. Fuel/Electricity Cost (VND/100km) 30,000 30,000 5,000 Maint. Cost (VND/month) 20,000 20, ,000 Acceleration 0-40km/hr in faster than Same as standard 10 seconds standard motorcycle motorcycle Top Speed (km/hr) License Required Yes Yes No Sales/registration Tax 2.8 million VND 1.4 million VND 1.4 million VND Marginal willingness to pay and tax effects Hanoi: MWTP for the tax is million VND for each 1 million VND increase in the tax Respondent would be willing to pay 1.61 million VND extra on the price of a vehicle, in order to avoid a 1 million VND increase in the sales tax Tax has largest MWTP estimate of all significant attributes Ahmedabad: MWTP For maintenance and fuel savings is about 1/3 the expected future value of those savings In both cities (esp. Ahmedabad), respondents favored gasoline vehicles heavily Market Share Predictions Current Technology Typical of Most E-Scooters in China Upgraded Technology Increased Performance (range, speed, acceleration) No cost increase Cutting Edge Technology Significant Increased Performance Purchase price increase Electricity (refueling)- electricity cost increase Maintenance (battery) costs- battery cost increase (advance tech) 3

4 Market Share Predictions Gas Prices In the low gas price scenario, fuel costs are set approximately at current costs and fuel economies In the high gas price scenario fuel costs are increased by 1/3 Tax Incentives (Hanoi only) 10 percent of the purchase price in the absence of the e-scooter tax incentive. With an e-scooter tax incentive, the sales tax for the e- scooter is set to zero percent, while the sales taxes for the standard and large motorcycles each remain at 10 percent Emission Rates of Different Types of Two-Wheelers India & CO2 (g/km) CO (mg/100km) NOX PM10 PM2.5 SO2 VOC India Viet Nam Viet Nam Class I Class II Class III Class I Class II Class III 4-Stroke Twowheeler Low Power Mid Power High Power Low Power Mid Power High Power (Meszler 2007) E-Scooter E-Scooter E-Scooter E-Scooter E-Scooter E-Scooter ,250, Unknown Unknown

5 Emission Scenarios-Hanoi Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 (33% E-scooters) (36% E-Scooters) (38% E-Scooters) (42% E-scooters) High High Performance High Performance High Performance Performance No Tax Incentive No Tax Incentive Tax Incentive Tax Incentive Low Fuel Price High Fuel Price Low Fuel Price High Fuel Price Emission Scenarios-Ahmedabad Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 (19% E-scooters) (11% E-Scooters) (23% E-Scooters) (14% E-scooters) Mid Performance High Performance Mid Performance High Performance Low Fuel Price Low Fuel Price High Fuel Price High Fuel Price 10 Average Two-Wheeler Fleet Emission Rate Change Base ( E-Scooters) Average Two-Wheeler Fleet Emission Rate Change 9 8 Scenario 1 (33% E-scooters) Scenario 2 (36% E-Scooters) Scenario 3 (38% E-Scooters) Scenario 4 (42% E-scooters) Base ( E-Scooters) Scenario 1 (19% E-scooters) Scenario 2 (11% E-Scooters) Scenario 3 (23% E-Scooters) Scenario 4 (14% E-scooters) CO2 CO NOX PM10 VOC CO2 CO NOX PM10 VOC Conclusion Recommendations Electric Vehicle adoption is subject to many factors China s adoption driven by: Motorcycle restrictions Short trips and bicycle culture Infrastructure Inefficient/overcrowded transit Vietnam s inhibited by: Poor image of unproven technology Price and performance (dis)advantages [can overcome] India s inhibited heavily by unobserved variables Poor image, bad early experiences Viet Nam: Sensitive to Price and Performance Preferential Tax Policy Licensing Policy Influential (safety tradeoff?) Willing to Pay for Higher Performance Still Require Better Marketing India: Sensitive to Reputation (Unobserved Variables) Increase Public Awareness Campaigns and Marketing Demonstrate Lower Operating Costs Subsidize Battery Fixed Costs Both require robust battery recycling policy 5

6 Future Work Questions Models can estimate number of Policy/Technology Options Careful analysis of lead pollution Effect of EVs on power generation capacity Infrastructure Requirements Public Health Congestion How to Complement, not Compete Against Transit Christopher Cherry Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Tennessee-Knoxville 223 Perkins Hall Knoxville, TN phone: mobile: fax: Thanks to: Clean Air Initiative-SUMA Swiss Vietnam Clean Air Program Hanoi University of Transport and Communications CEPT-Ahmedabad Some factors not included in choice model 6

7 Some factors not included in choice model Some factors not included in choice model 7