Implementing Vehicle Emission Standards and Equivalent Fuel Quality and the Case of Thailand s Roadmap to Euro 6/VI

Transcription

1 Implementing Vehicle Emission Standards and Equivalent Fuel Quality and the Case of Thailand s Roadmap to Euro 6/VI Dr. Supat Wangwongwatana Faculty of Public Health, Thammasat University Member of the Pollution Control Board of Thailand

2 Ambient Current State Air Quality of Air Quality in Bangkok in Bangkok (Ambient) Pollutants Range 95 Percentile Standards Exceeding Average Standards 1 Year TSP (24-hr) mg/m 3 PM 1 (24-hr) g/m /1938 () 36 PM 2.5 (24-hr) g/m /987 (6.59) 25 Pb (monthly ) g/m 3 CO (1-hr) ppm /3146 (.) 1. CO (8-hr) ppm /32265 (.) 1. O 3 (1-hr) ppb /46743 (.56) 21 O 3 (8-hr) ppb /48588 (1.53) 21 SO 2 (1-hr) ppb /3387 (.) 2 SO 2 (24-hr) ppb /139 (.) 2 NO 2 (1-hr) ppb /44326 (.) 2 Annual Avg. Standards

3 Current State of Air Quality in Bangkok 217 (Roadside) Pollutants Range 95 Percentile Standards Exceeding Average Standards 1 Year TSP (24-hr) mg/m 3 PM 1 (24-hr) g/m /1338 (.52) 53 PM 2.5 (24-hr) g/m /757 (6.61) 26 Pb (monthly ) g/m 3 CO (1-hr) ppm /3189 (.) 1. CO (8-hr) ppm /32991 (.) 1. O 3 (1-hr) ppb /16959 (.5) 12 O 3 (8-hr) ppb /1756 (.17) 13 SO 2 (1-hr) ppb /15763 (.) 2 SO 2 (24-hr) ppb /668 (.) 2 NO 2 (1-hr) ppb /29864 (.) 27 Annual Avg. Standards

4 TSP (mg/m 3 ) No. of Vehicle: Mil. vehicles PM1 (ug/m 3 ) No. of vehicle: Mil. vehicles CO (ppm) No. of vehicle: Mil. vehicles Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Other Truck Light duty diesel Roadside CO Bus Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Other Bus Truck Motorcycle Light duty diesel Passenger car Roadside Ambient 1 year Std. TSP Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Other Bus Truck Motorcycle Light duty diesel Passenger car Roadside Ambient 1 year Std. PM

5 SO 2 (ppb) NO. of Vehicle: Mill. Vehicles NO 2 (ppb) No. of vehicle: Mil. vehicles Ozone (ppb) No. of Vehicle:(Mil. Vehicle Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Truck Bus Light duty diesel Roadside 1 year Std. NO 2 Other Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient Other Truck Light duty diesel Roadside Bus Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient O Trend of Air Quality in Bangkok Other Truck Light duty diesel Roadside Standard Bus Motorcycle Passenger car Ambient SO

6 Annual Average PM 2.5 in Bangkok g/m Standard = 25 g/m 3 9 ค าส งส Maximum ด 95 เปอร เซนไทล Percentile 95 ค าเฉล ย Average Minimum ค าต าส ด Linear (ค าเฉล ย) Regression R² = Euro 4 Euro 4 new 5 Fuels Vehicles ป ป ป ป ป ป ป

7 1 ม.ค. 1 ก.พ. 1 ม.ค. 1 เม.ย. 1 พ.ค. 1 ม.ย. 1 ก.ค. 1 ส.ค. 1 ก.ย. 1 ต.ค. 1 พ.ย. 1 ธ.ค. 31 ธ.ค. g/m 3 Daily Average PM 2.5 in Bangkok from ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป Standard = 5 g/m 3

8 1,3-Butadiene ( g/m 3 ) Benzene ( g/m 3 ) Trend of Air Toxics in Bangkok 1 8 Annual Average Standard = 1.7 g/m Annual Average Standard =.33 g/m ERTC รพ.จ ฬาลงกรณ โชคช ย 4 ราชภ ฏบ านสมเด จฯ ด นแดง พ.ศ พ.ศ พ.ศ พ.ศ พ.ศ พ.ศ พ.ศ พ.ศ พ.ศ. 2559

9 Clean fuels and clean new vehicles are major contributing factors responsible for today Bangkok s cleaner air

10 Measures on Clean Fuels

11 Sulfur Content (ppm) Phasing Down Sulfur in Gasoline Fuel in Thailand 1,2 1, , 5 Sulfur Euro 4 5 before

12 Sulfur Content (ppm) Phasing Down Sulfur in Diesel Fuel in Thailand 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2,5 5 Euro 3 Euro before

13 Thailand Fuel Specifications 25 and 212 Gasoline (current) RVP 62 kpa 6 kpa 62 kpa for Gasohol with VRU Benzene 3.5 vol% 1 vol% 35 vol% Aromatics (42 vol% for 35 vol% Gasohol until 27) Olefins - 18 vol% Sulphur 5 ppm 5 ppm Diesel (current) CI or CN % Distilled Temperature 357 C 357 C Poly-aromatics - 11 w% Sulfur 35 ppm 5 ppm

14 Measures on Clean Vehicles

15 Enforcement of Vehicle Emission Standards in Thailand Vehicle Types LDV Gasoline LDV Diesel Before 1995 MC ECE 4- Enforcement Years Present Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV ECE 4-1 CO 13 g/km HC 5 g/km CO 4.5 g/km HC+NOx 3 g/km White Smoke 3% Evaporative 2 g/test (for < 11cc.) CO 3.5 gm/km HC+ NOx 2 g/km White Smoke 15% Evaporative 2 g/test (for 15cc.) HDV Pre-Euro Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro III (Euro IV, 1 Jan. 218) 15 Courtesy of Dr.Savitri Garivait

16 Vehicle Population in Bangkok 9,27,65 as of 31 August 216 (9.8 million at end 217)

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18 26 December 216

19 17 January 218

20 Last week of January Middle of February 218

21 Future Projection of Emissions from Road Transport in Bangkok if Stay on Euro 4 NOx Emission (kt) CO 2 Emission (kt) Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait CO Emission during NOx Emission during PM Emission (kt) CO Emission (kt) PM Emission during CO 2 Emission during 21-25

22 Much Cleaner Fuels and Cleaner Vehicles are needed!!! Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality and Vehicle Emission Standards to achieve Clean and Healthy Air for the People in Bangkok in the long term

23 Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality Standards

24 Comparison between Euro 4 and Euro 5 Fuel Specification Euro 4 Euro 5 1. Sulfur Not more than 5 ppm Not more than 1 ppm 2. Aromatics Not more than 35% by vol. Between 29-35% by vol. 3. Olefins Not more than 18% by vol. Between 3-13% by vol. 4. Benzene Not more than 1% by vol. Not more than 1% by vol. 5. RVP Not more than 62 KPa Between 56-6 kpa Euro 4 Euro 5 1. Cetane Not less than 5 Between Sulfur Not more than 5 ppm Not more than 1 ppm 3. PAH Not more than 11% by weight Between 2-6% 24 by weight

25 Quality of Current Fuels in Thailand Euro 4 for gasoline and diesel fuels with sulfur not more than 5 ppm Euro 5 fuels with sulfur not more than 1 ppm are also available, E2 for gasoline by Bangchak Premium grade diesel by PTT Million liter/day Gasoline Million liter/day Diesel Euro 4 28 Euro 5.7 Source: Department of Energy Business (Jan-May 216) Euro 4 63 Euro 5.2

26 Euro 5/6 Vehicle Emission Standards

27 Development of Future Roadmap for Implementing Mitigation Measures in Transport Sector in Thailand Pollution Control Board of Thailand established a Sub- Committee on Emission Standards for Motor Vehicles in Thailand on 25 Feb. 215 The Sub-Committee established 4 Task Forces (16 March 216) Task Force on Vehicle Emission Standards Task Force on Fuel Quality Standards Task Force on Inspection and Maintenance Program Task Force on Emission Inventory for Bangkok The Sub-Committee plans to draw the conclusion on future fuel quality and vehicle emission standards and their implementation timelines by the first quarter of 217 for submission to the Pollution Control Board

28 Air Benefit Assessment Framework Data Input Energy or Fuel Consumption Combustion Technology Engine Technology Fuel Characteristic Control Technology Economic Factors 1) Emission Inventory Tool GAINS Model Result Thailand s GHG emissions & air pollutants (base year 21) Other data Input Information on Emissions Spatial and Temporal Distribution Gridded 12 x 12 km & 1 x 1 km (BMR) Tool GIS 3) AQ modeling & Emission Validation Data Input Monitored or Observed Air Pollutant Concentration 2) AQ Modeling & Simulation Result Gridded of GHG and Air Pollutants Emissions Result Uncertainty in AQ modeling and Emission Inventory Tool Statistical Analysis Result Modeled Air Pollutant Concentration Tool CAMx Model Other Data Input Meteorological 4 data Emissions Boundary Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait

29 Air Benefit Assessment Framework 4. Future Emission Reduction Projection Scenarios Energy policy (PDP, EEDP, AEDP) Future Energy Consumption Potential Future Energy Demand Reduction 5. Emissions Mitigation Scenarios Current Legislation Scenario Maximum Technology Feasible Reduction No Further Control. 6. Air Benefit from Emission Reduction Assessment 7. Health Benefit Assessment 8. Emission Reduction Cost Assessment 9. Cost-Benefit Analysis and 41 Effective Emission Reduction Strategy Assessment

30 Proposed Roadmap for Future Fuel Quality and Vehicle Emission Standards for Thailand Euro 5/6 Fuel Quality Standards - Gasoline and Diesel 1 January 223 LDV Emission Standards - Euro 5-1 July Euro 6-1 July 229 HDV Emission Standards - Euro 5-1 January Euro 6-1 January 232

31 Emission Reduction Obtained from Using Euro 5 Fuels (Sulfur <1 ppm) in Inused Euro 3 and Euro 4 Vehicles instead of Euro 4 Fuels (Sulfur < 5 ppm) Diesel Vehicles Vehicle Standard Fuel Standard Percent of Emission Reduction (%) HC NO X CO CO 2 CH 4 PM Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5-51% % -38% -2% -4% -2% Euro 4 5 ppm S 1 ppm -25% -4% -32% -2% -12% -16% Gasoline Vehicles Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait Vehicle Percent of Emission Reduction (%) Fuel Standard Standard HC NO X CO CO 2 CH 4 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5-2% -14% -35% % -7% Euro 4 5 ppm S 1 ppm -3% -31% -74% % -1%

32 % Emission Reduction obtained from Switching from <5 ppm Sulfur to <1 ppm Sulfur Diesel Fuel in Euro 3 and Euro 4 Diesel Vehicles HC NOx CO CO2 CH4 PM Euro 3 Diesel Vehicle Euro 4 Diesel Vehicle

33 % -2 Emission Reduction Obtained from Switching from 5 ppm Sulfur to 1 ppm S Gasoline Fuel in Euro 3 and Euro 4 Gasoline Vehicles -2 HC NOx CO CO2 CH Euro 3 Gasoline Vehicle Euro 4 Gasoline Vehicle -1

34 PM Emission from Road Transport (kt) PM Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) PM Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok from the Implementation of Euro 5/6 Roadmap Euro 5 & 6 Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 BMR BMR Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait

35 PM Emission from Road Transport (kt) PM Emission from Road Transport (kt) PM Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok if Leapfrog to Euro 6 PM Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) Euro 5 & 6 Euro 4 LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro 5 & Euro 5 and then 6 vs Leapfroging to Euro 6 Euro 5 and then 6 Leapfrog to Euro 6 Additional Emission Reduction Gained from Leapfroging to Euro Leapfrog to Euro LDV & HDV LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro

36 NOx Emission from Road Transport (kt) NOx Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) NOx Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok from the Implementation of Euro 5/6 Roadmap Euro 5 & 6 Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 BMR BMR Euro 4 Euro 5 & 6 Courtesy of Dr. Savitri Garivait

37 NOx Emission from Road Transport (kt) NOx Emission from Road Transport (kt) NOx Emission Reduction from Road Transport (%) NOx Emission Reduction in the Road Transport in Bangkok if Leapfrog to Euro 6 Impact on NO X Emission from LDV + HDV if Leapfrog to Euro 6 Euro 5 & 6 LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 5 & Euro 5 and then 6 vs Leapfroging to Euro 6 Euro 5 and then 6 Leapfrog to Euro 6 Additional Emission Reduction Gained from Leapfroging to Euro LDV & HDV Leapfrog to Euro 6 LDV & HDV Euro 4 Euro

38 Thank you for your attention