THE AUTO-OIL OIL PROCESS. Part 1: Regulatory Developments in Europe. Asian Vehicle Emission Control Conference (AVECC) Bangkok 2001.

Transcription

1 European Commission Enterprise Directorate General Asian Vehicle Emission Control Conference (AVECC) Part 1: Regulatory Developments in Europe Dr Paul Greening Bangkok 2001 Enterprise Directorate-General THE AUTO-OIL OIL PROCESS 1

2 History: Auto-Oil I Auto-Oil I programme started in 1992; Aim - to set vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 2000 and beyond; Elements: studies on the development of vehicle emissions; modelling to predict resulting air quality; research on fuel-vehicle emission interactions cost-effectiveness optimisation. Slide 3 History: Auto-Oil I Auto-Oil I reported in 1996 resulting in: Euro 3 and 4 emission limits for passenger cars and light-duty vehicles; Euro 3, 4 and 5 emission limits for heavy-duty vehicles; Fuel quality specifications; Improved methods for roadworthiness testing. Slide 4 2

3 Development of Auto-Oil II Auto-Oil II programme was originally conceived to complete, confirm or amend the 2005 (Euro 4) standards; Programme redirected following the agreements on the Auto-Oil I Directives; New objectives focused more on projections, non-technical measures and other emission sources. Slide 5 Auto-Oil II: revised aims Prediction of future road transport emissions and air quality to identify where further effort is needed; Identify possible packages of complimentary measures for road transport to help achieve air quality objectives; Estimate costs and effects of policy scenarios. Slide 6 3

4 Auto-Oil II: principles Stakeholders involvement (Member States, European Parliament, NGO s, industry); Estimate emissions from other sectors to identify additional measures; Consistent framework for assessing a range of policy options tools and databases; Integrated approach to consider impact on emissions not targeted, e.g. CO 2. Slide 7 Scenarios: road transport Projected emissions estimated from Auto-Oil II base case; Business-as as-usual for EU15 over ; Road transport base case: latest emission and fuel requirements; national forecasts; traffic forecasts; vehicle stock, costs and prices. Slide 8 4

5 Key results: road transport Emissions from road transport falling to less than 20% of the 1995 levels by 2020 despite growth in demand; By contrast, CO 2 emissions will still rise before stabilising around 2005; Results for particulate emissions refer only to diesel; While the results are for total EU emissions, there will be considerable regional variations. Slide 9 Road transport base case 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 1990= Traffic CO2 CO NOx VOC PM Slide 10 5

6 Key results: air quality Large improvement in air quality by 2010; Several objectives will still not be met, in particular emissions of particulates; Total elimination of road transport emissions will not be enough to remove all exceedences by 2010; Future measures must target other sectors. Slide 11 Auto-Oil II base case NOx Nitrogen oxides Waste Solvent kt Road transport Process Other mobile Fuel extraction Combustion: non-industry Combustion: industry Combustion: energy Agriculture Slide 12 6

7 Auto-Oil II base case PM 10 Particulate matter < 10 microns Waste 1500 Solvent Road transport: Non exhaust kt Road transport: Gasoline exhaust Road transport: Diesel exhaust Process Other mobile Fuel extraction Combustion: non-industry Combustion: industry Combustion: energy Agriculture Slide 13 Pollutant Reduction in EU Emissions (1995 = 100) Road transport as % of total emissions in 1995 Road transport as % of total emissions in 2010 Nitrogen Oxides 57 44% 24% Sulphur dioxide 49 1,5% <0,5% Carbon monoxide 59 60% 33% Particulate matter (PM10) 71 16% 10% Non methane VOCs 60 37% 11% Benzene 43 65% 21% Carbon dioxide % 21% Slide 14 7

8 Key results: vehicles Analysis limited due to agreement of the Auto-Oil I directives; Cost-effective solutions for motorcycles: up to 3% reduction in total transport VOC s possible; Some encouragement for captive fleets: retro-fitting of particulate traps. Slide 15 Key results: fuels Selected scenarios aimed at reducing PM and VOC emissions; Analysis based on Auto-Oil I predictive equations (EPEFE); Reductions of sulphur content below 50ppm were not studied; Modest reductions predicted; trade-off between VOC and NOx; Some encouragement for city and alternative fuels Slide 16 8

9 Key results: others areas I&M: only 15% of high polluters currently identified by present I&M methods; importance of OBD highlighted; Non-technical measures: scenarios tested in Athens and Lyon; many cost effective solutions available; Excise duty has little effect, but registration and circulation taxes can have more effect on emissions. Slide 17 Lessons learned Auto-Oil II innovative in terms of stakeholder participation and its integrated, science-based approach; Experience has led to key lessons concerning flexibility, balanced stakeholder involvement, information gaps, need to address other sources, and timeliness. Slide 18 9

10 Future of AQ policy Key remaining challenges in 2010 are particulates and ozone (plus localised NO 2 exceedances); Emerging problems (PAH?), need for monitoring; Clean Air for Europe programme; Close relationship with climate change and European Climate Change Programme. Slide 19 Auto-Oil II More detailed information on the Auto- Oil II programme can be found on the European Commission web-site at: autooil/index.htm Slide 20 10

11 PASSENGER CARS & LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES Directive 98/69/EC Petrol cars % reduction CO 0 NOx HC+NOx Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Slide 22 11

12 Directive 98/69/EC Revised dynamometer test cycle; Mandatory 2000 & 2005 emission limits; New low temperature test; Higher durability distance from 2005; Revised evaporative emissions test; In-use conformity testing; On-board diagnostics. Session 4 Slide 23 Revised dyno test cycle Initial 40 seconds warm-up (no sampling) now deleted Sampling from key-on UDC EUDC Slide 24 12

13 Limits - cars and lcv s I Table shows limits and percentage reductions from 1996 levels, accounting for the revised Type I test cycle. CO (g/km) HC (g/km) NOx (g/km) HC+NOx (g/km) PM (g/km) Petrol Diesel Petrol D Petrol Diesel P Diesel Diesel (30%) 0.64 (40%) 0.20 (40%) (40%) 0.50 (20-40%) (20-40%) 0.05 (35-50%) (70%) 0.50 (54%) 0.10 (70%) (68%) 0.25 (60-70%) (58-68%) (68-75%) Slide 25 Low temperature test Applicable to cars and light commercial vehicles with positive-ignition ignition engines; Test temperature -7 C over 4 repeats of the urban drive cycle (UDC): Date CO (g/km) HC (g/km) Date Cars & lcv class I Jan /1/2002 lcv class II Jan /1/2003 lcv class III Jan /1/2003 Slide 26 13

14 Low temperature test Dedicated gas vehicles and vehicles with small petrol tank (for starting only) are not tested; Vehicles that can switch between petrol and LPG or NG are tested; Council is discussing this - and some countries prefer lower HC limits; Will be resolved in mid-2001 after co- decision with European Parliament. Slide 27 Revised durability distance Tested over the Type V durability test: For 2000: Durability remains at 80,000 km or 5 years (whichever occurs first); For 2005: Durability distance rises to 100,000 km or 5 years (whichever occurs first). Slide 28 14

15 Evaporative emissions Revised test simulates conditions of car parked after use in direct sunlight; Better represents real conditions and improved laboratory techniques; More severe vehicle pre-conditioning (driving); Longer 24-hour diurnal evaporative emission test after vehicle exposed to higher temperature. Slide 29 HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES Directive 1999/96/EC 15

16 Euro 3, 4 and 5 More stringent emission limits applicable from October 2000, October 2005 and October 2008; New dynamometer test cycles for type approval (certification); Additional requirements applicable from 2005: Durability; On-Board Diagnostics; In-use conformity checking; Slide 31 European Steady Cycle (ESC) 100 Net power [% of net Pmax] P Pmax max 50 % of P 50% of max Pmax 70% of of P 80 max Pmax = NOx Control Area = = = = 0 idle n lo A B C Engine speed = n ref n hi Slide 32 16

17 European Steady Cycle (ESC) Load 100 8% 9% 8% Mode Speed Load 1 idle - 2 A B 50 4 B 75 5 A 50 6 A 75 7 A 25 8 B B C C C C 50 5% 5% 5% 10% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 0 15% idle 50 A 75 B C Engine speed 100 Slide 33 European Steady Random NOx Cycle (ESC) test points A B C Engine speed Slide 34 17

18 European Load Response (ELR) Speed C B Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4 Selected Point A 100% Load 10% Time Slide 35 European Transient Cycle (ETC) Urban Rural Motorways Vehicle Speed in km/h Time in sec Slide 36 18

19 Test cycles Euro 3 ESC and ELR cycles: Conventional diesel engines including those with electronic fuel injection, EGR and/or oxidation catalysts. ESC, ELR and ETC cycles: Diesel engines with advanced exhaust after-treatment treatment including denox and/or particulate traps. ETC cycle only - Gas fuelled engines. Slide 37 Test cycles Euro 4 and 5 ESC, ELR and ETC cycles: All diesel engines. ETC cycle only: Gas fuelled engines. Slide 38 19

20 Euro 3 limits (2000) Euro 3 provides a 30% reduction over Euro 2 (1996). ESC and ELR cycles: g/kwh CO HC NOx Particulates Smoke (m -1 ) Euro / ETC cycle: g/kwh CO NMHC NOx CH 4 Particulates Euro / 0.21 Slide 39 Euro 4 limits (2005) Euro 4 provides additional reductions of 30% in CO, HC and NOx and 80% in particulates over Euro 3. ESC and ELR cycles: g/kwh CO HC NOx Particulates Smoke (m -1 ) Euro ETC cycle: g/kwh CO NMHC NOx CH 4 Particulates Euro Slide 40 20

21 Euro 5 limits (2008) From 1 October 2008, the NOx limit on both the ESC and the ETC cycles will be 2.0 g/kwh. However, no later than the end of 2002, the Commission shall consider the available technology with a view to confirming the mandatory NOx standard for 2008 in a report to the European Parliament and the Council, accompanied, if necessary, by appropriate proposals. Study will commence in early Slide 41 NOx reduction Engine control measures Exhaust treatment measures Fuel injection timing EGR Variable geometry turbocharger urea- SCR catalyst NOx adsorber Active & Passsive HCdeNOx Slide 42 21

22 urea-scr urea (NH 2 ) 2 CO SCR Catalyst (S) 4NH 3 + 4NO + O 2 4N 2 + 6H 2 O 2NH 3 + NO + NO 2 2N 2 + 3H 2 O 8NH 3 + 6NO 2 7N H 2 O Exhaust Gas V H S O Oxidation Catalyst (V) 2NO + O 2 2NO 2 4HC + 3O 2 2CO 2 + 2H 2 O 2CO + O 2 2CO 2 Oxidation Catalyst (O) 4NH 3 + 3O 2 2N 2 + 6H 2 O Hydrolysis Catalyst (H) (NH 2 ) 2 CO + H 2 O 2NH 3 + CO 2 Source - AECC Slide 43 EEV concept: target values Permissive EEV target values are introduced in Directive 1999/96/EC: ESC and ELR cycles: g/kwh CO HC NOx Particulates Smoke (m -1 ) EEV ETC cycle: g/kwh CO NMHC NOx CH 4 Particulates EEV Slide 44 22

23 Concerns It seems possible that manufacturers may meet the Euro 4 PM limits without using traps; Some political concern about this; Work on developing measuring procedures for PM size and number is progressing and recent initiatives will speed-up this process. Slide 45 Heavy-duty vehicles on ETC % reduction PM NOx Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Slide 46 23

24 Proposals to come Proposals are due in the first half of 2001 covering: OBD; In-use conformity testing; Durability provisions; Measuring procedure for Euro 4 PM - ISO are working on this issue. Slide 47 Recent amendment Earlier this year found that some Euro 3 engines were using control strategies; Defeat devices are prohibited but type- approval authority needs to be suspicious ; Result = beneficial effect on fuel consumption, negative effect on NOx; Competitive issue for manufacturers; EU needed to avoid recent US situation. Slide 48 24

25 Recent amendment Scope of amendment: Require detailed information of emission control strategies; Additional NOx screening test on ETC with 10% allowance on NOx limit; Applicable to all new engines including already approved Euro 3; Existing Euro 3 may self-certify. Slide 49 MOTORCYCLES Directive 97/24/EC 25

26 Motorcycles and air quality In 1995, motorcycles accounted for some 6.7% CO, 4.3% HC and 0.2% NOx of total road transport emissions; However: relative share is rising due to measures being applied to other vehicle categories; mopeds and small motorcycles contribute mainly to urban air pollution; emissions from large motorcycles significant in warm ozone-sensitive summer weekends. Slide 51 Directive 97/24/EEC CO (g/km) HC (g/km) NOx (g/km) cycle dates 2-stroke ECE 40 17/6/99 4-stroke ECE 40 17/6/99 Stringency comparable to passenger cars pre-catalyst (pre-euro 1); Motorcycles were not included in Auto-Oil I; Commission required to make proposals by Slide 52 26

27 Basecase results: motorcycles percentage of total transport emissions (%) Modal share of motorcycles in total transport emissions (EU-9) CO HC NOx Slide 53 Motorcycle input scenarios Scenario MA 1-3 MB 1-3 MC 1-3 Emission control technology Engine modification (2S) Secondary air injection (4S) Oxidation catalyst (+ Secondary air injection) Direct injection (2S) SAI + OC (small 4S) TWC (larger 4S) Range HC reduction (%) Range cost increase (%) Slide 54 27

28 Effect of control technology Relative change with respect to base case total transport emissions in 2010 percentage change wrt base case (%) 0,5 0-0,5-1 -1,5-2 -2,5-3 -3,5-4 -4,5 CO HC NOx MA 1-3 MB 1-3 MC 1-3 Slide 55 Cost estimates Development cost dominates; Large variability of cost estimates per vehicle. NPV-1 (MEcu 98) Cost calculations motorcycle scenarios average low high MA MB MC Slide 56 28

29 Commission proposal: scope First stage in 2003 that will push technology, i.e: 4-stroke engines will have oxidation catalysts and air injection: (60%reduction in CO and HC); 2-stroke engines will have direct injection: (70% reduction in HC); Slide 57 Commission proposal: scope A fundamental change to the test procedure for motorcycles for 2006 plus tighter limits; 4-stroke engines will have closed loop 3-3 way catalysts; 2-stroke engines will have advanced direct injection plus oxidation catalysts; Based on the establishment of a world harmonised test procedure. Slide 58 29

30 Commission proposal: limits Today s limits: CO HC NOx cycle dates (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 2-stroke ECE 40 17/6/ stroke ECE 40 17/6/1999 Commission proposal: 2 and 4-stroke ECE 40 1/1/2003 1/1/ cc > 150cc ECE 40 indicative Slide 59 NON-ROAD MOBILE MACHINERY Directive 97/68/EC 30

31 Directive 97/68/EC: scope Scope - non-road mobile machinery; Excluded: engines powering road transport vehicles; agricultural and forestry tractors; ships; railway locomotives; aircraft; generating sets. Slide 61 Stage 1 emission limits Engine power P (kw) Only compliant engines to be placed on the market after.. CO (g/kwh) HC (g/kwh) NOx (g/kwh) Particulates (g/kwh) 18 P < P < 75 Power group C 75 P < 130 Power group B 130 P < 560 Power group A Slide 62 31

32 Stage 2 emission limits Engine power P (kw) 18 P < 37 Power group D 37 P < 75 Power group G 75 P < 130 Power group F 130 P < 560 Power group E Only compliant engines to be placed on the market after.. CO (g/kwh) HC (g/kwh) NOx (g/kwh) Particulates (g/kwh) Slide 63 Directive 97/68/EC Next steps: Extension to spark-ignition engines; Extension to diesel engine types not yet covered, e.g. generating sets; Requirements for replacement engines; Stage 3 for diesel engines: common test procedure, especially for PM Slide 64 32

33 Directive 2000/25/EC Scope - Agricultural & forestry tractors; Same emission limits as for non-road mobile machinery but delayed application dates. Third phase being developed. Slide 65 FUEL SPECIFICATIONS Directive 98/70/EC 33

34 Fuel specifications Mandatory fuel specifications for gasoline and diesel in two stages and 2005: Petrol RVP summer 60 - Aromatics Benzene 1 - Olefins 18 - Oxygen 2,7 - Sulphur Maximum specifications except where indicated Diesel Cetane # (min) 51 - Density 15 C Distillation C Polyaromatics 11 - Sulphur Slide 67 Fuel specifications Leaded petrol was phased-out from January 2000: Italy, Spain and Greece have a derogation until 2002; Member States are claiming a derogation against having to meet fuel specifications on time: Portugal has an extra 2 years to meet the 2000 unleaded petrol sulphur standard and an extra 1 year to meet the 2000 diesel sulphur standard; A possible problem with the new accession countries. Slide 68 34

35 Market initiatives Over 95% UK market at less than 50 ppm sulphur diesel; Germany will apply incentives for 50 ppm sulphur fuels from November Awaiting discussion in ECFIN regarding incentives for 10 ppm sulphur fuels from January 2003; Cleaner fuels necessary to achieve CO2 agreement. Slide 69 Fuel Quality Directive 98/70/EC contains a review clause to complete 2005 specs; This review was not intended to include sulphur (2005 specification is already set at 50ppm) - therefore not included in Auto-Oil II; Proposal in spring 2001; Links with modifications to test reference fuels to reflect market average values. Slide 70 35

36 Low sulphur review Call for evidence (technical need, costs, environmental benefits, logistics etc.); Summary of information provided; Peer review by panel of experts; Consultation with Member States & Stakeholders; Findings to be considered for next fuel proposal - spring Slide 71 Sulphur review More detailed information on the review of fuel sulphur levels can be found on the European Commission web-site at: sulphur/index.htm Slide 72 36

37 MTBE No Community legislation minimum requirement for oxygen content; US MTBE situation has high visibility in EU; Commission risk assessment - not a health problem, water quality problem; Now looking at possible control measures; Revision of fuel quality (i.e. low sulphur) will have an impact on the use of oxygenates. Slide 73 37