Emission and Air Quality Trends Review

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Vincent Kelley
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1 Emission and Air Quality Trends Review Georgia March

2 Summary 2

3 Project Objective To develop and present publicly available information on trends in emissions and ambient air quality over the past ten years in easy to understand visual and tabular formats 3

4 Emission Trends Summary All pollutants with the exception of VOC and NH3 have decreased since 1999 in aggregate across Georgia Increases due to agricultural and forestry categories NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion sources show significant decrease over time as a result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading Program and CAIR control implementation Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004 and 2005 is the result of EPA s method change and MOVES model integration for estimating onroad mobile source emissions 4

5 Georgia Emission Trends (NOx) 5

6 Georgia Emission Change (NOx) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 10,031-11,830-27,062-68,208-72,306-62,406-61,491-66,552-73, , ,924 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0-1,013-2,284-1,495-1,585-1,816-1,212-1, ,453-1, Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 1,352 3,711-42,589-43,334-44,079-45,890-46,227-46,564-46,902-47,239-47,576 Other Fuel Combustion ,615 2,903 2,192 1,480 1,448 1,417 1,386 1,354 1,323 Industrial Processes 0-1,771-1,098-7,827-6,956-6,085-6,748-6,815-6,882-6,950-7,017-7,084 Highway Vehicles 0 11,262-2,937-6,024-24,762-43,499 50,808 30,882 10,957-8,969-28,894-48,820 Off-highway Vehicles ,521 6,940 7,360 2, ,444-6,323-9,201-12,080 Miscellaneous 0-4,472-3,919-6,409-3,930-1,450-10,591 5,035 21,662 7,977 14,571 14,571 Total 0 15,630-17,967-81, , ,684-72,246-79,011-90, , , ,399 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 6% -7% -16% -39% -42% -36% -36% -39% -43% -69% -68% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -29% -66% -43% -46% -52% -35% -37% -27% -42% -36% -23% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 1% 4% -45% -45% -46% -48% -49% -49% -49% -50% -50% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 4% 6% 31% 25% 19% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% Industrial Processes 0% -6% -4% -27% -24% -21% -23% -24% -24% -24% -24% -25% Highway Vehicles 0% 4% -1% -2% -8% -14% 16% 10% 3% -3% -9% -16% Off-highway Vehicles 0% 0% 0% 7% 8% 8% 3% -1% -4% -7% -10% -13% Miscellaneous 0% -42% -37% -60% -37% -14% -100% 47% 204% 75% 137% 137% Total 0% 2% -2% -11% -19% -22% -10% -11% -12% -19% -27% -30% 6

7 Georgia Emission Trends (SO 2 ) 7

8 Georgia Emission Change (SO2) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 4,486-21,057 8,852 37,440 43, , , ,244-1, , ,534 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 1,821-2,605-7,068-7,218-8,248-7,835-8,683-8,819-9,010-8,993-9,046 Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 2,272 3,901 40,968 43,789 46,610 48,163 47,131 46,100 45,068 44,037 43,005 Other Fuel Combustion ,111 3,600 1,088-1,424-1,473-1,523-1,572-1,621-1,671 Industrial Processes 0 1,215 2,244-23,103-23,185-23,268-25,359-25,522-25,685-25,848-26,011-26,174 Highway Vehicles ,639-4,488-4,864-5,742-6,620-7,498-8,376-9,254 Off-highway Vehicles ,020 3,613 1, ,205-2,356-3,507-4,658 Miscellaneous 0-1,371-1,219 2,986 2,760 2,534-2,877 4,713 12,578 5,996 9,522 9,522 Total 0 8,323-18,264 28,383 56,566 61, , , ,071 2, , ,811 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 1% -4% 2% 7% 9% 22% 26% 26% 0% -48% -57% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 19% -27% -74% -76% -87% -82% -91% -93% -95% -95% -95% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 5% 8% 86% 92% 98% 101% 99% 97% 95% 92% 90% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 3% 5% 154% 91% 27% -36% -37% -38% -40% -41% -42% Industrial Processes 0% 3% 6% -65% -65% -65% -71% -71% -72% -72% -73% -73% Highway Vehicles 0% -3% 0% -7% -22% -37% -40% -48% -55% -62% -70% -77% Off-highway Vehicles 0% 2% 4% 5% 24% 43% 13% -1% -14% -28% -41% -55% Miscellaneous 0% -48% -42% 104% 96% 88% -100% 164% 437% 208% 331% 331% Total 0% 1% -3% 5% 9% 10% 19% 23% 23% 0% -38% -46% 8

9 Air Quality Trends Summary Average O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in Georgia O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in all current O 3 and PM 2.5 non-attainment areas in Georgia 9

10 Max O 3 DVs and Trend 10

11 Average O 3 DVs and Trend 11

12 O 3 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 12

13 Max PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 13

14 Average PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 14

15 Max PM Hour DVs and Trend 15

16 Average PM Hour DVs and Trend 16

17 Annual PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 17

18 24-Hour PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 18

19 Background 19

20 Project Objective To develop and present publicly available information on trends in emissions and ambient air quality in the U.S. over the past ten years in easy to understand visual and tabular formats Include additional qualitative assessment of meteorological influences on these trends as available for temperature and rainfall anomalies 20

21 Emission Trends 21

22 Emission Trends Study Team collected and processed U.S. EPA emission inventories for years within the study period of interest ( ) By pollutant and source category electric generation fuel combustion industrial fuel combustion other fuel combustion industrial processes on-road vehicles non-road engines and vehicles miscellaneous 22

23 Emissions Data Summary Data Obtained from EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) and Trends Websites EPA s Trends reports and emission comparisons include interpolations of all categories between key years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012 projection) Pollutants: VOC, NOx, CO, SO 2, PM 10, PM 2.5 and NH 3 Project Improvement The Study Team augmented above data with year specific CEM emissions (2002 through 2010), MOVES onroad emissions (2005 through 2010), and wildfire emissions data (2005 through 2009) 23

24 Georgia Emission Trends (VOC) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 1,093 1, ,146 1,160 1,188 1,268 1,265 1,328 1,193 1,004 1,048 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion Industrial Fuel Combustion 10,210 10,156 10,598 3,912 3,892 3,872 3,828 3,827 3,826 3,825 3,824 3,823 Other Fuel Combustion 26,789 22,517 22,527 16,301 14,555 12,809 11,063 10,798 10,534 10,269 10,004 9,740 Industrial Processes 213, , , , , , , , , , , ,193 Highway Vehicles 207, , , , , , , , , , , ,079 Off-highway Vehicles 66,974 66,541 66,104 83,632 81,708 79,783 77,668 74,524 71,381 68,237 65,094 61,950 Miscellaneous 28,181 18,276 19,495 87,840 94, , , , , , ,219 Total 554, , , , , , , , , , , ,305 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Industrial Fuel Combustion 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Other Fuel Combustion 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Industrial Processes 39% 39% 39% 41% 41% 42% 52% 38% 30% 37% 33% 33% Highway Vehicles 37% 39% 38% 29% 28% 26% 29% 20% 15% 18% 15% 14% Off-highway Vehicles 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 15% 11% 8% 10% 8% 8% Miscellaneous 5% 3% 4% 14% 15% 16% 0% 29% 45% 33% 42% 43% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 24

25 Georgia Emission Trends (VOC) 25

26 Georgia Emission Composition (VOC) 26

27 Georgia Emission Trends (NOx) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 172, , , , , , , , ,156 98,999 53,337 55,784 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 3,462 2,448 1,178 1,967 1,877 1,645 2,249 2,182 2,510 2,008 2,203 2,653 Industrial Fuel Combustion 95,269 96,621 98,980 52,680 51,935 51,190 49,379 49,042 48,704 48,367 48,030 47,693 Other Fuel Combustion 11,623 12,110 12,307 15,238 14,526 13,814 13,103 13,071 13,040 13,009 12,977 12,946 Industrial Processes 28,719 26,949 27,621 20,893 21,763 22,634 21,971 21,904 21,837 21,770 21,702 21,635 Highway Vehicles 313, , , , , , , , , , , ,748 Off-highway Vehicles 91,445 91,198 91,151 97,965 98,385 98,805 93,758 90,879 88,001 85,122 82,243 79,365 Miscellaneous 10,608 6,136 6,689 4,199 6,679 9, ,644 32,270 18,585 25,179 25,179 Total 727, , , , , , , , , , , ,002 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 24% 25% 23% 23% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 10% 11% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Industrial Fuel Combustion 13% 13% 14% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% Other Fuel Combustion 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% Industrial Processes 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% Highway Vehicles 43% 44% 44% 48% 49% 48% 56% 53% 51% 51% 54% 52% Off-highway Vehicles 13% 12% 13% 15% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 16% 16% Miscellaneous 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 5% 3% 5% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 27

28 Georgia Emission Trends (NOx) 28

29 Georgia Emission Composition (NOx) 29

30 Georgia Emission Trends (SO 2 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 504, , , , , , , , , , , ,579 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 9,507 11,328 6,902 2,439 2,288 1,258 1, Industrial Fuel Combustion 47,649 49,921 51,550 88,617 91,438 94,259 95,811 94,780 93,749 92,717 91,686 90,654 Other Fuel Combustion 3,975 4,075 4,157 10,087 7,575 5,063 2,552 2,502 2,453 2,403 2,354 2,304 Industrial Processes 35,748 36,963 37,992 12,645 12,562 12,480 10,389 10,226 10,063 9,900 9,737 9,573 Highway Vehicles 12,027 11,624 11,986 11,237 9,388 7,539 7,163 6,285 5,407 4,529 3,651 2,773 Off-highway Vehicles 8,494 8,696 8,824 8,921 10,514 12,107 9,592 8,441 7,289 6,138 4,987 3,836 Miscellaneous 2,877 1,506 1,658 5,863 5,637 5, ,590 15,455 8,872 12,399 12,399 Total 624, , , , , , , , , , , ,579 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 81% 80% 80% 79% 80% 80% 83% 83% 82% 80% 68% 64% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Industrial Fuel Combustion 8% 8% 9% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 12% 15% 24% 27% Other Fuel Combustion 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Industrial Processes 6% 6% 6% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% Highway Vehicles 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Off-highway Vehicles 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Miscellaneous 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 3% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 30

31 Georgia Emission Trends (SO 2 ) 31

32 Georgia Emission Composition (SO 2 ) 32

33 Georgia Emission Trends (PM 2.5 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 7,249 8,421 7,906 25,298 25,354 25,448 27,941 28,226 29,087 26,140 20,625 22,554 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 17,745 17,009 16, Industrial Fuel Combustion 21,656 21,842 22,449 7,753 7,944 8,135 8,268 8,288 8,308 8,329 8,349 8,369 Other Fuel Combustion 10,912 11,611 11,643 6,851 6,883 6,916 6,948 6,802 6,655 6,509 6,362 6,216 Industrial Processes 74,014 65,709 69,421 38,881 37,505 36,130 34,668 34,567 34,466 34,365 34,264 34,163 Highway Vehicles 7,123 6,926 6,550 6,366 5,997 5,627 12,058 11,267 10,475 9,684 8,893 8,101 Off-highway Vehicles 6,365 6,279 6,190 7,003 7,093 7,183 6,860 6,656 6,451 6,246 6,041 5,836 Miscellaneous 157, , ,803 95, , ,963 63, , , , , ,745 Total 302, , , , , , , , , , , ,201 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 2% 3% 3% 13% 13% 13% 17% 12% 9% 11% 8% 8% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 6% 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Industrial Fuel Combustion 7% 8% 8% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% Other Fuel Combustion 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% Industrial Processes 24% 23% 26% 21% 20% 19% 22% 15% 11% 14% 12% 12% Highway Vehicles 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 7% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% Off-highway Vehicles 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% Miscellaneous 52% 51% 48% 51% 52% 54% 40% 59% 69% 62% 69% 69% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 33

34 Georgia Emission Trends (PM 2.5 ) 34

35 Southeastern States Emissions Summary Annual Emissions (Tons) State VOC NOX CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama 461, ,601 1,925, , , ,931 82,326 Florida 1,282, ,414 5,525, , , ,222 83,950 Georgia 775, ,002 3,539, , , , ,271 Kentucky 282, ,745 1,160, , ,611 95,472 61,100 Mississippi 373, ,319 1,243,900 95, , ,233 76,560 North Carolina 480, ,082 2,359, , , , ,400 South Carolina 349, ,926 1,584, , , ,109 40,906 Tennessee 367, ,361 1,640, , ,994 97,194 43,448 Virginia 367, ,648 1,954, , ,687 92,714 56,086 West Virginia 127, , , , ,064 60,502 13,965 Total 4,867,820 3,754,399 21,495,022 2,278,171 4,017,954 1,400, ,011 35

36 Emission Changes The following slides represent the percentage-based emissions change from 1999 to 2010 for each pollutant as well as a comparison map of 2010 annual emissions Negative values indicate decrease in emissions, positive values indicate an increase 36

37 Georgia Emission Change (VOC) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion Industrial Fuel Combustion ,298-6,319-6,339-6,383-6,384-6,385-6,386-6,387-6,388 Other Fuel Combustion 0-4,272-4,262-10,488-12,234-13,980-15,726-15,990-16,255-16,520-16,784-17,049 Industrial Processes 0-8,378-7,300 47,293 47,944 48,594 49,175 47,602 46,030 44,458 42,886 41,313 Highway Vehicles ,466-21,604-32,949-44,293-59,395-67,213-75,030-82,848-90,665-98,483 Off-highway Vehicles ,659 14,734 12,809 10,694 7,550 4,407 1,263-1,880-5,024 Miscellaneous 0-9,905-8,685 59,659 66,726 73,793-27, , , , , ,038 Total 0-23,542-26,373 85,323 78,035 70,760-49, , , , , ,557 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -7% -14% 5% 6% 9% 16% 16% 22% 9% -8% -4% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -2% -39% 82% 111% 134% 198% 246% 275% 228% 290% 325% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% -1% 4% -62% -62% -62% -63% -63% -63% -63% -63% -63% Other Fuel Combustion 0% -16% -16% -39% -46% -52% -59% -60% -61% -62% -63% -64% Industrial Processes 0% -4% -3% 22% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 20% 19% Highway Vehicles 0% 0% -3% -10% -16% -21% -29% -32% -36% -40% -44% -47% Off-highway Vehicles 0% -1% -1% 25% 22% 19% 16% 11% 7% 2% -3% -8% Miscellaneous 0% -35% -31% 212% 237% 262% -98% 610% 1312% 707% 1086% 1086% Total 0% -4% -5% 15% 14% 13% -9% 25% 58% 25% 42% 40% 37

38 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (VOC) 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1, to 1, to to 400 Annual Emissions Change Annual 2010 Emissions 1999 to 2010 VOC Tons Per Year > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% 18,000 to 190,000 3,000 to 18,000 2,000 to 3,000 1,000 to 2,000 0 to 1,000 Emission Change (%) Emission Density (Tons) 1999 to

39 Georgia Emission Change (NOx) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 10,031-11,830-27,062-68,208-72,306-62,406-61,491-66,552-73, , ,924 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0-1,013-2,284-1,495-1,585-1,816-1,212-1, ,453-1, Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 1,352 3,711-42,589-43,334-44,079-45,890-46,227-46,564-46,902-47,239-47,576 Other Fuel Combustion ,615 2,903 2,192 1,480 1,448 1,417 1,386 1,354 1,323 Industrial Processes 0-1,771-1,098-7,827-6,956-6,085-6,748-6,815-6,882-6,950-7,017-7,084 Highway Vehicles 0 11,262-2,937-6,024-24,762-43,499 50,808 30,882 10,957-8,969-28,894-48,820 Off-highway Vehicles ,521 6,940 7,360 2, ,444-6,323-9,201-12,080 Miscellaneous 0-4,472-3,919-6,409-3,930-1,450-10,591 5,035 21,662 7,977 14,571 14,571 Total 0 15,630-17,967-81, , ,684-72,246-79,011-90, , , ,399 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 6% -7% -16% -39% -42% -36% -36% -39% -43% -69% -68% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -29% -66% -43% -46% -52% -35% -37% -27% -42% -36% -23% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 1% 4% -45% -45% -46% -48% -49% -49% -49% -50% -50% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 4% 6% 31% 25% 19% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% Industrial Processes 0% -6% -4% -27% -24% -21% -23% -24% -24% -24% -24% -25% Highway Vehicles 0% 4% -1% -2% -8% -14% 16% 10% 3% -3% -9% -16% Off-highway Vehicles 0% 0% 0% 7% 8% 8% 3% -1% -4% -7% -10% -13% Miscellaneous 0% -42% -37% -60% -37% -14% -100% 47% 204% 75% 137% 137% Total 0% 2% -2% -11% -19% -22% -10% -11% -12% -19% -27% -30% 39

40 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (NOx) 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1, to 1, to to 400 Annual Emissions Change Annual 2010 Emissions 1999 to 2010 NOx Tons Per Year 27,000 to 223,000 12,000 to 27,000 6,000 to 12,000 2,000 to 6,000 0 to 2,000 > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% Annual 2010 Emissions NH3 Tons Per Year 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1, to 1, to to 400 Annual 2010 Emissions PM-10 Tons Per Year 9,000 to 145,000 6,000 to 9,000 5,000 to 6,000 3,000 to 5,000 0 to 3,000 Annual 2010 Emissions PM-2.5 Tons Per Year Emission Change (%) 1999 to ,900 to 55,500 3,600 to 6,900 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 Emission Density (Tons) Annual 2010 Emissions 2010 SO2 Tons Per Year 44,000 to 136,000 16,000 to 44,000 5,000 to 16,000 1,000 to 5,000 40

41 Georgia Emission Change (SO2) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 4,486-21,057 8,852 37,440 43, , , ,244-1, , ,534 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 1,821-2,605-7,068-7,218-8,248-7,835-8,683-8,819-9,010-8,993-9,046 Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 2,272 3,901 40,968 43,789 46,610 48,163 47,131 46,100 45,068 44,037 43,005 Other Fuel Combustion ,111 3,600 1,088-1,424-1,473-1,523-1,572-1,621-1,671 Industrial Processes 0 1,215 2,244-23,103-23,185-23,268-25,359-25,522-25,685-25,848-26,011-26,174 Highway Vehicles ,639-4,488-4,864-5,742-6,620-7,498-8,376-9,254 Off-highway Vehicles ,020 3,613 1, ,205-2,356-3,507-4,658 Miscellaneous 0-1,371-1,219 2,986 2,760 2,534-2,877 4,713 12,578 5,996 9,522 9,522 Total 0 8,323-18,264 28,383 56,566 61, , , ,071 2, , ,811 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 1% -4% 2% 7% 9% 22% 26% 26% 0% -48% -57% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 19% -27% -74% -76% -87% -82% -91% -93% -95% -95% -95% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 5% 8% 86% 92% 98% 101% 99% 97% 95% 92% 90% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 3% 5% 154% 91% 27% -36% -37% -38% -40% -41% -42% Industrial Processes 0% 3% 6% -65% -65% -65% -71% -71% -72% -72% -73% -73% Highway Vehicles 0% -3% 0% -7% -22% -37% -40% -48% -55% -62% -70% -77% Off-highway Vehicles 0% 2% 4% 5% 24% 43% 13% -1% -14% -28% -41% -55% Miscellaneous 0% -48% -42% 104% 96% 88% -100% 164% 437% 208% 331% 331% Total 0% 1% -3% 5% 9% 10% 19% 23% 23% 0% -38% -46% 41

42 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (SO2) 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1, to 1, to to 400 Annual Emissions Change Annual 2010 Emissions SO2 Tons Per Year 1999 to ,000 to 136,000 16,000 to 44,000 5,000 to 16,000 1,000 to 5,000 0 to 1,000 > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% Annual 2010 Emissions VOC Tons Per Year 18,000 to 190,000 3,000 to 18,000 2,000 to 3,000 1,000 to 2,000 0 to 1,000 Emission Change (%) Emission Density (Tons) 1999 to

43 Georgia Emission Change (PM 2.5 ) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 1, ,049 18,105 18,199 20,692 20,976 21,838 18,890 13,376 15,305 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion ,323-17,582-17,499-17,460-17,468-17,479-17,491-17,507-17,517-17,529 Industrial Fuel Combustion ,903-13,712-13,520-13,388-13,368-13,347-13,327-13,307-13,287 Other Fuel Combustion ,062-4,029-3,997-3,964-4,111-4,257-4,404-4,550-4,696 Industrial Processes 0-8,305-4,593-35,133-36,509-37,885-39,347-39,447-39,548-39,649-39,750-39,851 Highway Vehicles ,126-1,496 4,936 4,144 3,353 2,562 1, Off-highway Vehicles Miscellaneous 0-15,593-27,996-62,526-57,681-52,836-93,875-18,222 57,480-7,324 31,954 31,946 Total 0-22,860-32, , , , ,918-67,215 8,113-60,877-28,347-27,662 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 16% 9% 249% 250% 251% 285% 289% 301% 261% 185% 211% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -4% -7% -99% -99% -98% -98% -98% -99% -99% -99% -99% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 1% 4% -64% -63% -62% -62% -62% -62% -62% -61% -61% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 6% 7% -37% -37% -37% -36% -38% -39% -40% -42% -43% Industrial Processes 0% -11% -6% -47% -49% -51% -53% -53% -53% -54% -54% -54% Highway Vehicles 0% -3% -8% -11% -16% -21% 69% 58% 47% 36% 25% 14% Off-highway Vehicles 0% -1% -3% 10% 11% 13% 8% 5% 1% -2% -5% -8% Miscellaneous 0% -10% -18% -40% -37% -33% -59% -12% 36% -5% 20% 20% Total 0% -8% -11% -38% -37% -36% -47% -22% 3% -20% -9% -9% 43

44 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (PM 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1, to 1, to to ) Annual 2010 Emissions Annual Emissions Change PM-2.5 Tons Per Year 1999 to ,900 to 55,500 3,600 to 6,900 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% Annual 2010 Emissions SO2 Tons Per Year 44,000 to 136,000 16,000 to 44,000 5,000 to 16,000 1,000 to 5,000 0 to 1,000 Annual 2010 Emissions VOC Tons Per Year 18,000 to 190,000 3,000 to 18,000 2,000 to 3,000 1,000 to 2,000 0 to 1,000 Emission Change (%) Emission Density (Tons) 1999 to

45 Southeastern States Emissions Change Summary Annual Emissions Change (Tons) to 2010 State VOC NOX CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama -103, ,246-1,086, , ,615-65,953-4,533 Florida 290, ,976-1,898, , ,780-97,918-10,872 Georgia 220, , , ,811-51,107-27,662 23,176 Kentucky -51, , , ,135-43,955-35,271-34,520 Mississippi 62, , , ,917 9,036-8, North Carolina -170, ,347-1,480, ,497-44,015-39,519-14,403 South Carolina -18, , , ,929 22, ,836 Tennessee -130, , , ,523-62,393-46,641-42,408 Virginia -48,108-82, , ,995-27,948-21,027-19,019 West Virginia -31, , , ,139-34,261-28,849-5,141 Total 19,841-2,179,174-8,393,725-3,544, , , ,076 45

46 Emission Trends Summary All pollutants with the exception of VOC and NH3 have decreased since 1999 in aggregate across Georgia Increases due to agricultural and forestry categories NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion sources show significant decrease over time as a result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading Program and CAIR control implementation Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004 and 2005 is the result of EPA s method change and MOVES model integration for estimating onroad mobile source emissions 46

47 Air Quality Trends Ozone & PM

48 AQ Trends Scope Compute, summarize and display ozone and PM 2.5 design value trends in the Southeastern states for the period Create a spreadsheet database of O 3 and PM 2.5 values at each monitoring site for additional analyses 48

49 Design Values Ozone Annual 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = ppm PM 2.5 Annual Annual arithmetic mean of quarterly means averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 15 ug/m 3 PM Hour Annual 98 th percentile of daily averages averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 35 ug/m 3 49

50 State-Wide Design Value (DV) Trends Trends in state-wide maximum DV and average DV Max DV: Maximum DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period Average DV: Average of DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period Compute linear trend via least-squares regression 50

51 Data Handling Procedures O 3 design value (DV) for each overlapping threeyear period starting with and ending with DV calculated using annual 4 th highest daily max 8-hr averages and percent of valid observations, based on EPA data handling conventions Data associated with exceptional events that have received EPA concurrence are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in at least 8 out of 10 three-year periods between 1999 and

52 Data Handling Procedures Annual PM 2.5 DV and 24-hr PM 2.5 DV for each overlapping three-year period starting with and ending with DV calculations based on EPA data handling conventions Data extracted from monitors that have a nonregulatory monitoring type are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in at least 8 out of at 10 three-year periods between 1999 and

53 Ozone Concentration [ppm] Trend Calculation Trend in units of ppb/year New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island,NY-NJ-CT Max O3 Design Values Scale in units of ppm Least squares trend: Slope = -2.3 ppb/yr Trends based on linear least squares fit to rolling three year design values (DVs) Negative trend indicates improving air quality DVs based on each 3-year period: , , Notes On plots, DVs are for three year period ending in year shown (i.e., DV plotted as 2009 value) Ozone trend values expressed as ppb/year (1,000 ppb = 1 ppm); DVs are plotted as ppm 53

54 Max O 3 DVs and Trend 54

55 Average O 3 DVs and Trend 55

56 Ozone Trends by Site in Georgia Monitoring Sites County Trend [ppm/yr] Bibb, GA Chatham, GA Cobb, GA Coweta, GA Dawson, GA De Kalb, GA Douglas, GA Fayette, GA Fulton, GA Glynn, GA Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 56

57 Ozone Trends by Site in Georgia Monitoring Sites County Trend [ppm/yr] Gwinnett, GA Henry, GA Murray, GA Muscogee, GA Muscogee, GA Paulding, GA Richmond, GA Rockdale, GA Sumter, GA Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 57

58 O 3 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 58

59 Qualitative Meteorological Trends June-August Temperature Blue colors represent the coldest years, red hottest 2006, 2007 and 2010 most ozone conducive in Southeast from temperature standpoint 59

60 Qualitative Meteorological Trends June-August Precipitation Red colors represent the driest years, dark green wettest 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010 most ozone conducive in Southeast from precipitation standpoint 60

61 Max PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 61

62 Average PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 62

63 Max PM Hour DVs and Trend 63

64 Average PM Hour DVs and Trend 64

65 PM 2.5 Trends by Site in Georgia Trend [ug/m 3 per year] Monitoring Site County Annual DV 24-Hr DV Bibb N/A Bibb Chatham Clayton Cobb DeKalb DeKalb Dougherty Floyd N/A Gwinnett Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 65

66 PM 2.5 Trends by Site in Georgia Trend [ug/m 3 per year] Monitoring Site County Annual DV 24-Hr DV Hall N/A Lowndes N/A Muscogee Muscogee Paulding Richmond N/A Richmond Washington Wilkinson Houston N/A Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 66

67 Annual PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 67

68 24-Hour PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 68

Qualitative Meteorological Trends Annual Temperature 2003-2010 Blue colors represent the coldest

69 Qualitative Meteorological Trends Annual Temperature Blue colors represent the coldest years, red hottest 2006 and 2007 most PM 2.5 conducive in Southeast from temperature standpoint 69

70 Qualitative Meteorological Trends Annual Precipitation Red colors represent the driest years, dark green wettest 2006, 2007 and 2010 most PM 2.5 conducive in Southeast from precipitation standpoint 70

71 Air Quality Trends Summary Average O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in Georgia O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in all current O 3 and PM 2.5 non-attainment areas in Georgia 71

SPECIFICATION SHEET: CMV_C1C2 2016beta Platform

March 7, 2019 SPECIFICATION SHEET: CMV_C1C2 2016beta Platform Description: Category 1 and 2 Commercial Marine Vessel (cmv_c1c2) emissions, for simulating 2016 air quality 1. Executive Summary 1 2. Introduction