Review of VOC and NOx Emissions Inventory Trends
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1 Review of VOC and NOx Emissions Inventory Trends Patrick Davis Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association MARAMA WOE Workshop Cape May, NJ February 7, 2007
2 Main topics 1. Data sources 2. What source types are the largest contributors of NOx and VOC (point/area/mobile/nonroad) 3. What are the key source categories? 4. What is the geographic distribution of key source categories? 5. What are the trends over time? 6. How much of the inventory is subject to state control? 7. What are the Implications for Weight of Evidence?
3 Data sources MANE-VU Emissions Inventory Version 3 Developed by E.H. Pechan for: Point Area Onroad Nonroad Biogenic Summaries
4 Data Sources Future OTB/OTW 2009/12/18 MANE-VU Emissions Inventories Version 3.1 On the Books/On the Way (OTB/W) Developed by MACTEC for: Non-EGU Point Area Nonroad NESCAUM ran SMOKE for Mobile sources NYDEC summarized by county EGU emissions from VISTAS IPM model
5 Overview Future OTB/OTW OTB/W Emissions Inventories used the following growth factors: State supplied population, employment, and other emission projection data or (if no state supplied data) DOE s Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005) or (if above not available) U.S. EPA s Economic Growth and Analysis System Version 5.0 (EGAS 5.0)
6 Data Sources Future Year BOTW 2009/12/18 MANE-VU Beyond on the Way (BOTW) Version Based on OTC Control Measures Matrix Emissions were developed by MACTEC for: Non-EGU Point Area Mobile and Non-road unchanged from OTB CAIR+ Estimate from IPM developed separately (not in BOTW inventory)
7 What source types are the largest contributors of NOx and VOC? NOx: Onroad & Point VOC: Biogenic, Area, Onroad
8 6,000, Version 3 MANE-VU Annual Source Comparison 5,000,000 4,000,000 Tons/Yr 3,000,000 BIOGENIC NONROAD ONROAD AREA POINT 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 NH3 NOx PM10-PRI PM2.5-PRI SO2 VOC
9 6,000, Version 3 MANE-VU Annual Source Comparison 5,000,000 4,000,000 Tons/Yr 3,000,000 BIOGENIC NONROAD ONROAD AREA POINT 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 NH3 NOx PM10-PRI PM2.5-PRI SO2 VOC
10 Version MANE-VU Annual Biogenic Source Emissions by State VOC West Virginia Delaware District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont North Carolina Virginia Connecticut million t/y
11 What are the key source categories of NOx (point & mobile) VOC (area)?
12 MANE-VU 2002 Version 3 Annual Emissions Inventory Top VOC Source Categories Highway Vehicles-Diesel (1%) Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation-Surface Coating Operations (1%) Off-highway Vehicle Diesel (1%) Auto Refinishing (1%) Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage & Transport-Other (1%) Gas Marketing Stage I (1%) Graphic Arts (1%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Industrial (1%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial (1%) Gas Marketing Stage II (2%) Degreasing (2%) Portable Containers: Residential & Commercial (3%) Architectural Coatings (3%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer (4%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial (4%) Off-highway Vehicle Gasoline, 4-Stroke (5%) Industrial Surface Coating (5%) Off-highway Vehicle Gasoline, 2-Stroke (6%) Pleasure Craft (7%) Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Residential (19%) Highway Vehicles-Gasoline (26%) On-Road Non-Road Point Area 0 100, , , , , , , , ,000 Tons/Year
13 MANE-VU 2002 Version 3 Annual Emissions Inventory Top VOC Source Categories Highway Vehicles-Diesel (1%) Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation-Surface Coating Operations (1%) Off-highway Vehicle Diesel (1%) Auto Refinishing (1%) Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage & Transport-Other (1%) Gas Marketing Stage I (1%) Graphic Arts (1%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Industrial (1%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial (1%) Gas Marketing Stage II (2%) Degreasing (2%) Portable Containers: Residential & Commercial (3%) Architectural Coatings (3%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer (4%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial (4%) Off-highway Vehicle Gasoline, 4-Stroke (5%) Industrial Surface Coating (5%) Off-highway Vehicle Gasoline, 2-Stroke (6%) Pleasure Craft (7%) Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Residential (19%) Highway Vehicles-Gasoline (26%) On-Road Non-Road Point Area 0 100, , , , , , , , ,000 Tons/Year
14 MANE-VU 2002 Version 3 Annual Emissions Inventory Top NOx Source Categories Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Industrial (2%) LPG (2%) Marine Vessels, Commercial (2%) External Combustion Boilers-Industrial (2%) Industrial Processes-Mineral Products (2%) Railroad Equipment (2%) Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Commercial/Institutional (3%) On-Road Non-Road Point Area Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Residential (4%) Off-highway Vehicle Diesel (7%) External Combustion Boilers-Electric Generation (16%) Highway Vehicles-Diesel (19%) Highway Vehicles-Gasoline (30%) 0 100, , , , , , , , ,000 Tons/Year
15 MANE-VU 2002 Version 3 Annual Emissions Inventory Top NOx Source Categories Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Industrial (2%) LPG (2%) Marine Vessels, Commercial (2%) External Combustion Boilers-Industrial (2%) Industrial Processes-Mineral Products (2%) Railroad Equipment (2%) Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Commercial/Institutional (3%) On-Road Non-Road Point Area Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Residential (4%) Off-highway Vehicle Diesel (7%) External Combustion Boilers-Electric Generation (16%) Highway Vehicles-Diesel (19%) Highway Vehicles-Gasoline (30%) 0 100, , , , , , , , ,000 Tons/Year
16 What is the geographic distribution of key source categories?
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21 Emissions Inventory Trends Overall Key categories (Note: these charts are annual)
22 VOC Regional Trends and Source Analysis
23 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Annual VOC Emissions Projections for the MANE-VU Region with OTC Measures Draft 01/19/07 EGU Point Non-EGU Point Area Nonroad Onroad Emissions (tpy) 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , OTB/W 2009 OTC 2012 OTB/W 2012 OTC
24 600,000 Area Source Annual VOC Emissions Projections with OTC Measures Draft 9/29/06 Emissions (tpy) 500, , , , OTB/W 2009 OTC 2012 OTB/W 2012 OTC 2018 OTB/W 2018 OTC 100,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
25 MANE-VU 2002 Version 3 Annual Emissions Inventory Top VOC Source Categories Highway Vehicles-Diesel (1%) Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation-Surface Coating Operations (1%) Off-highway Vehicle Diesel (1%) Auto Refinishing (1%) Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage & Transport-Other (1%) Gas Marketing Stage I (1%) Graphic Arts (1%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Industrial (1%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial (1%) Gas Marketing Stage II (2%) Degreasing (2%) Portable Containers: Residential & Commercial (3%) Architectural Coatings (3%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer (4%) Solvent Utilization-Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial (4%) Off-highway Vehicle Gasoline, 4-Stroke (5%) Industrial Surface Coating (5%) Off-highway Vehicle Gasoline, 2-Stroke (6%) Pleasure Craft (7%) Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Residential (19%) Highway Vehicles-Gasoline (26%) On-Road Non-Road Point Area 0 100, , , , , , , , ,000 Tons/Year
26 350,000 Onroad Source Annual VOC Emissions Projections Draft 01/19/07 300, , Emissions (tpy) 200, , ,000 50,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
27 70,000 Top VOC Source Categories MANE-VU Emissions Inventory Trends Pleasure Craft 60,000 VOC Emissions (Tons/Yr) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20, ,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
28 60,000 Top VOC Source Categories MANE-VU Emissions Inventory Trends Off-Highway Vehicle Gasoline, 2-Stroke 50,000 VOC Emissions (Tons/Yr) 40,000 30,000 20, ,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
29 60,000 Top VOC Source Categories MANE-VU Emissions Inventory Trends Industrial Surface Coating VOC Emissions (Tons/Yr) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20, ,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
30 250,000 Top VOC Source Categories MANE-VU Emissions Inventory Trends Stationary Source Fuel Combustion - Residential VOC Emissions (Tons/Yr) 200, , , ,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
31 NOx Regional Trends and Source Analysis
32 3,000,000 2,500,000 Annual NOx Emissions Projections for the MANE-VU Region with OTC Measures Draft 01/19/07 EGU Point Non-EGU Point Area Nonroad Onroad 2,000,000 Emissions (tpy) 1,500,000 1,000, , OTB/W 2009 OTC 2012 OTB/W 2012 OTC
33 MANE-VU 2002 Version 3 Annual Emissions Inventory Top NOx Source Categories Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Industrial (2%) LPG (2%) Marine Vessels, Commercial (2%) External Combustion Boilers-Industrial (2%) Industrial Processes-Mineral Products (2%) Railroad Equipment (2%) Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Commercial/Institutional (3%) On-Road Non-Road Point Area Stationary Source Fuel Combustion-Residential (4%) Off-highway Vehicle Diesel (7%) External Combustion Boilers-Electric Generation (16%) Highway Vehicles-Diesel (19%) Highway Vehicles-Gasoline (30%) 0 100, , , , , , , , ,000 Tons/Year
34 400,000 Onroad Source Annual NOx Emissions Projections Draft 01/19/07 350, , Emissions (tpy) 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
35 MANE-VU State by State VMT Comparison 5.00E E E E+08 VMT (miles/day) 3.00E E E VMT 2009 VMT 2012 VMT 1.50E E E E+00 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
36 VISTAS PC_1f IPM Run Annual NOx Emissions Vermont Rhode Island Pennsylvania New York Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey Maine District of Columbia Delaware Connecticut Annual NOx (MTons)
37 60,000 Top NOx Source Categories MANE-VU Emissions Inventory Trends Off-Highway Vehicle Diesel 50,000 NOx Emissions (Tons/Yr) 40,000 30,000 20, ,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
38 45,000 Top NOx Source Categories MANE-VU Emissions Inventory Trends Stationary Source Fuel Combustion - Residential NOx Emissions (Tons/Yr) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, ,000 5,000 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT
39 How much of the inventory is subject to state control?
40 One definition Outside state control Onroad and offroad engines Motor vehicle fuels Locomotives/airplanes Offshore shipping Biogenic emissions Wildfire/prescribed Ammonia Emissions from Canada and other regions outside OTC Potential for emissions reductions Point sources Some area sources California car standards Limited fuel controls
41 Implications for Weight of Evidence?
42 Implications for Weight of Evidence? Priorities for state strategies Area source VOC reductions Point source NOx reductions Priorities for ongoing inventory improvements (from 2001 PES report)
43 Implications for Weight of Evidence? 2001 PES report identified highly uncertain data in existing emissions inventories: Residential wood combustion activity & factors Construction & agricultural offroad equipment activity Updated Vehicle Mix & Rural Areas VMT Open Burning (Residential waste, yard waste, agricultural field, prescribed, wildfires, slash burn) Agricultural Ammonia (Dairy cattle, poultry, hogs, beef cattle, other livestock, non-ag fertilizer, manure spreading) Fugitive Dust (Construction activities, unpaved roads, agricultural tilling) Natural Sources (Forest and crops, soils, windblown dust)
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