Supporting Information

Transcription

1 Supporting Information Strauss et al /pnas Antarctic Contribution (BASELINE) 7 Antarctic Contribution (TRIGGERED) Sea Level Rise (m) SLR sensitivity to warming held constant Warming sensitivity to emissions held constant Sea Level Rise (m) Cumulative Carbon Emissions Since 1850 (Gt) Cumulative Carbon Emissions Since 1850 (Gt) 10 Total (BASELINE) 10 Total (TRIGGERED) Sea Level Rise (m) Sea Level Rise (m) Cumulative Carbon Emissions Since 1850 (Gt) Cumulative Carbon Emissions Since 1850 (Gt) Fig. S1. Antarctic (Upper Row) and total (Lower Row) projections of committed SLR, given cumulative emissions and the baseline or triggered assumption regarding WAIS collapse. Blue lines and shading represent central and 66% CI estimates based on SLR sensitivity to warming, holding constant the transient climate response to emissions at its median value. Red lines and shading represent the central and 66% CI estimates based on warming sensitivity to the transient response, holding constant the sensitivity of SLR to warming at its median value. 1of13

2 Table S1. Total US municipalities becoming locked in so that 25, 50, or 100% of their 2010 population-weighted area will fall below the future committed high tide line, making no assumption about WAIS collapse (baseline case) US municipalities baseline case for WAIS With 25% threshold With 50% threshold With 100% threshold Emissions end date Emissions scenario Cumulative emissions, GtC warming, C (CI) SLR, m (CI) All municipalities (CI) >100,000 residents (CI) All municipalities (CI) >100,000 residents (CI) All municipalities (CI) >100,000 residents (CI) 2015 Historical ( ) 1.6 ( ) 675 (0 1,261) 14 (0 25) 414 (0 942) 6 (0 17) 14 (0 199) 0 (0 2) Historical + EIEI ( ) 2.2 ( ) 846 (165 1,335) 17 (2 26) 604 (92 1,011) 8 (2 19) 38 (8 283) 0 (0 3) 2050 RCP ( ) 2.3 ( ) 889 (227 1,347) 15 (2 26) 636 (119 1,028) 9 (2 19) 50 (8 283) 0 (0 3) RCP ( ) 2.7 ( ) 989 (361 1,396) 19 (2 26) 699 (208 1,082) 11 (2 19) 84 (11 330) 0 (0 3) RCP ( ) 2.6 ( ) 973 (341 1,387) 18 (2 26) 682 (190 1,071) 11 (2 19) 83 (9 315) 0 (0 3) RCP ( ) 3.1 ( ) 1,121 (528 1,499) 22 (7 27) 809 (335 1,175) 16 (2 21) 128 (11 384) 0 (0 4) 2100 RCP ( ) 2.4 ( ) 919 (273 1,362) 15 (2 26) 655 (140 1,043) 11 (2 19) 83 (8 283) 0 (0 3) RCP 4.5 1, ( ) 3.6 ( ) 1,232 (713 1,575) 24 (15 28) 911 (460 1,272) 17 (7 22) 199 (14 470) 2 (0 5) RCP 6.0 1, ( ) 5.0 ( ) 1,490 (1,057 1,826) 27 (21 42) 1,176 (756 1,479) 21 (15 24) 386 ( ) 4 (0 7) RCP 8.5 2, ( ) 7.1 ( ) 1,894 (1,504 2,176) 44 (27 53) 1,544 (1,185 1,812) 25 (21 35) 741 (411 1,021) 8 (4 13) Not applicable Fixed warming Not applicable ( ) 1,042 (612 1,369) 21 (12 26) 744 (372 1,052) 15 (4 19) 103 (14 284) 0 (0 3) ( ) 1,441 (1,054 1,736) 27 (21 36) 1,119 (748 1,392) 20 (15 23) 353 ( ) 4 (0 6) ( ) 1,770 (1,460 2,024) 39 (27 46) 1,415 (1,127 1,677) 23 (20 30) 653 ( ) 6 (4 11) ( ) 2,101 (1,841 2,339) 49 (42 54) 1,748 (1,499 1,938) 34 (25 37) 943 (714 1,134) 12 (7 14) Projections assume zero additional emissions after emissions end dates listed, except for the historical + EIEI scenario. EIEI is the expected future emissions implied by existing energy infrastructure, as estimated in ref. 23. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. CIs are shown spanning 17th 83rd percentiles, the 66% ( likely ) range. warming is in reference to the preindustrial global mean temperature, and committed SLR is in reference to global mean sea level in Note: the relationship between committed warming and committed SLR is different for fixed warming vs. all other scenarios, because all other scenarios involve distributions of warming amounts, and warming translates nonlinearly into SLR. 2of13

3 Table S2. Total US municipalities becoming locked in so that 25, 50, or 100% of their 2010 population-weighted area will fall below the future committed high tide line, assuming inevitable collapse of the WAIS under any scenario (triggered case) US municipalities triggered case for WAIS With 25% threshold With 50% threshold With 100% threshold Emissions end date Emissions scenario Cumulative emissions, GtC warming, C (CI) SLR, m (CI) All municipalities >100,000 residents All municipalities >100,000 residents All municipalities >100,000 residents 2015 Historical ( ) 4.6 ( ) 1,475 (1,261 1,690) 27 (25 33) 1,153 (931 1,343) 20 (17 23) 370 ( ) 4 (2 6) Historical + EIEI ( ) 4.8 ( ) 1,516 (1,335 1,697) 27 (26 34) 1,202 (1,011 1,356) 22 (19 23) 426 ( ) 4 (3 6) 2050 RCP ( ) 4.9 ( ) 1,528 (1,348 1,704) 28 (26 34) 1,210 (1,025 1,357) 22 (19 23) 427 ( ) 4 (3 6) RCP ( ) 5.0 ( ) 1,549 (1,365 1,713) 28 (26 34) 1,234 (1,046 1,372) 22 (19 23) 427 ( ) 4 (3 6) RCP ( ) 5.0 ( ) 1,546 (1,363 1,712) 28 (26 34) 1,228 (1,046 1,371) 22 (19 23) 427 ( ) 4 (3 6) RCP 8.5 1, ( ) 5.2 ( ) 1,569 (1,376 1,747) 28 (26 37) 1,251 (1,056 1,399) 22 (19 23) 445 ( ) 5 (3 6) 2100 RCP ( ) 4.9 ( ) 1,536 (1,354 1,707) 28 (26 34) 1,216 (1,035 1,361) 22 (19 23) 427 ( ) 4 (3 6) RCP 4.5 1, ( ) 5.3 ( ) 1,581 (1,379 1,774) 28 (26 40) 1,271 (1,059 1,437) 22 (19 23) 472 ( ) 5 (3 6) RCP 6.0 1, ( ) 5.9 ( ) 1,704 (1,437 1,915) 34 (27 44) 1,358 (1,115 1,563) 23 (20 26) 585 ( ) 6 (4 8) RCP 8.5 2, ( ) 7.4 ( ) 1,957 (1,645 2,195) 46 (32 53) 1,596 (1,307 1,825) 27 (23 35) 796 ( ) 8 (5 13) Not applicable Fixed warming Not applicable ( ) 1,560 (1,410 1,710) 28 (27 34) 1,249 (1,097 1,369) 22 (20 23) 443 ( ) 5 (4 6) ( ) 1,666 (1,445 1,864) 32 (27 42) 1,327 (1,123 1,516) 23 (20 25) 537 ( ) 6 (4 7) ( ) 1,839 (1,575 2,042) 42 (28 48) 1,499 (1,277 1,700) 25 (22 32) 709 ( ) 7 (5 11) ( ) 2,150 (1,927 2,374) 52 (44 54) 1,798 (1,575 1,978) 34 (26 37) 995 (794 1,160) 12 (8 14) EIEI is the expected future emissions implied by existing energy infrastructure, as estimated in ref. 23. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of the ensuing warming or SLR. See the legend of Table S1 for further documentation. 3of13

4 Table S3. Cities exceeding 100,000 residents where 25% of the 2010 population-weighted area will fall below the future committed high tide line, making no assumption about WAIS collapse (baseline case) City Total population Population rank Critical cumulative emissions, GtC SLR, m Commitment year RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 Beaumont TX 118, , Boston MA 617, Bridgeport CT 144, , Brownsville TX 175, , Cambridge MA 105, AE 1.5 AE AE AE AE Cape Coral FL 153, Charleston SC 119, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Chesapeake VA 221, Clearwater FL 107, , Coral Springs FL 121, Corpus Christi TX 305, , Elizabeth NJ 124, , Elk Grove CA 152, , Fort Lauderdale FL 165, AE 1.2 AE AE AE AE Hampton VA 137, Hayward CA 142, , Hialeah FL 224, AE 1.5 AE AE AE AE Hollywood FL 139, AE 1.5 AE AE AE AE Honolulu (Urban) HI 337, , Huntington Beach CA 189, AE 1.1 AE AE AE AE Jacksonville FL 819, , Jersey City NJ 247, , Long Beach CA 458, , Metairie LA 138, AE 0.1 AE AE AE AE Miami FL 399,457 7 AE 1.7 AE AE AE AE Miami Gardens FL 107, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Miramar FL 107, AE 1.2 AE AE AE AE New Haven CT 129, , New Orleans LA 343,467 8 AE 0.2 AE AE AE AE New York NY 8,175, , Newport News VA 180, , Norfolk VA 242, Oxnard CA 197, , Palm Bay FL 103, , Pembroke Pines FL 123, AE 1.3 AE AE AE AE Port St. Lucie FL 164, , Richmond CA 103, , Sacramento CA 466, , Savannah GA 136, , St. Petersburg FL 244, AE 1.7 AE AE AE AE Stockton CA 277, AE 1.4 AE AE AE AE Tampa FL 335, , Virginia Beach VA 436, Wilmington NC 106, , The alphabetical list includes the SLR increment required for each city to commit at 25%, together with the corresponding central estimate of critical cumulative emissions. SLR in turn corresponds to these emissions. AE indicates that historical emissions already have exceeded the critical level. Where applicable, RCP columns indicate future 21st century years (rounded to the nearest multiple of 5) when different RCPs will exceed each city s critical emissions level. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of the ensuing warming or SLR. Rows for the 10 largest cities are shaded. 4of13

5 Table S4. Cities exceeding 100,000 residents where 50 or 100% of the 2010 population-weighted area will fall below the future committed high tide line, making no assumption about WAIS collapse (baseline case) City Total population Population rank Critical cumulative emissions, GtC SLR, m Commitment year RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 Commitment threshold: 50% Beaumont TX 118, , Cambridge MA 105, Cape Coral FL 153, Charleston SC 119, Chesapeake VA 221, , Coral Springs FL 121, Fort Lauderdale FL 165, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Hampton VA 137, , Hialeah FL 224,634 9 AE 1.7 AE AE AE AE Hollywood FL 139, Huntington Beach CA 189, , Jacksonville FL 819, , Metairie LA 138, AE 0.3 AE AE AE AE Miami FL 399, Miami Gardens FL 107, Miramar FL 107, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE New Orleans LA 343,467 5 AE 0.3 AE AE AE AE Norfolk VA 242, Pembroke Pines FL 123, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Port St. Lucie FL 164, , Sacramento CA 466, , Savannah GA 136, , St. Petersburg FL 244, , Stockton CA 277, Virginia Beach VA 436, , Commitment threshold: 100% Cape Coral FL 153, , Hialeah FL 224, , Hollywood FL 139, , Metairie LA 138, , Miami Gardens FL 107, , Miramar FL 107, , New Orleans LA 343, , Pembroke Pines FL 123, , The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. Rows for the 10 largest cities are shaded underneath each commitment threshold level. See the legend of Table S3 for further documentation. 5of13

6 Table S5. Cities exceeding 100,000 residents where 25% of the 2010 population-weighted area will fall below the future committed high tide line, assuming inevitable collapse of the WAIS under any emissions scenario (triggered case) City Total population Population rank Critical cumulative emissions, GtC SLR, m Commitment year RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 Beaumont TX 118, , Boston MA 617,594 3 AE 2.8 AE AE AE AE Bridgeport CT 144, , Brownsville TX 175, , Cambridge MA 105, AE 1.5 AE AE AE AE Cape Coral FL 153, AE 1.9 AE AE AE AE Charleston SC 119, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Chesapeake VA 221, AE 2.9 AE AE AE AE Clearwater FL 107, , Coral Springs FL 121, AE 2.8 AE AE AE AE Corpus Christi TX 305, , Elizabeth NJ 124, , Elk Grove CA 152, , Fort Lauderdale FL 165, AE 1.2 AE AE AE AE Hampton VA 137, AE 2.7 AE AE AE AE Hayward CA 142, , Hialeah FL 224, AE 1.5 AE AE AE AE Hollywood FL 139, AE 1.5 AE AE AE AE Honolulu (urban) HI 337,248 9 AE 3.9 AE AE AE AE Huntington Beach CA 189, AE 1.1 AE AE AE AE Jacksonville FL 819, Jersey City NJ 247, AE 3.7 AE AE AE AE Long Beach CA 458, , Metairie LA 138, AE 0.1 AE AE AE AE Miami FL 399,457 7 AE 1.7 AE AE AE AE Miami Gardens FL 107, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Miramar FL 107, AE 1.2 AE AE AE AE Mobile AL 195, , New Haven CT 129, , New Orleans LA 343,467 8 AE 0.2 AE AE AE AE New York NY 8,175, , Newport News VA 180, , Norfolk VA 242, AE 2.7 AE AE AE AE Oxnard CA 197, , Palm Bay FL 103, , Pasadena TX 149, , Pembroke Pines FL 123, AE 1.3 AE AE AE AE Port St. Lucie FL 164, AE 4.6 AE AE AE AE Richmond CA 103, , Sacramento CA 466,486 4 AE 3.2 AE AE AE AE Savannah GA 136, AE 3.5 AE AE AE AE St. Petersburg FL 244, AE 1.7 AE AE AE AE Stockton CA 277, AE 1.4 AE AE AE AE Tampa FL 335, AE 4.0 AE AE AE AE Virginia Beach VA 436,497 6 AE 2.9 AE AE AE AE Wilmington NC 106, , The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. See the legend of Table S3 for further documentation. 6of13

7 Table S6. Cities exceeding 100,000 residents where 50 or 100% of the 2010 population-weighted area will fall below the future committed high tide line, assuming inevitable collapse of the WAIS under any emissions scenario (triggered case) City Total population Population rank Critical cumulative emissions, GtC SLR, m Commitment year RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 Commitment threshold: 50% Beaumont TX 118, , Cambridge MA 105, AE 2.8 AE AE AE AE Cape Coral FL 153, AE 2.5 AE AE AE AE Charleston SC 119, AE 2.4 AE AE AE AE Chesapeake VA 221, AE 4.0 AE AE AE AE Coral Springs FL 121, AE 3.1 AE AE AE AE Elk Grove CA 152, , Fort Lauderdale FL 165, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Hampton VA 137, AE 2.9 AE AE AE AE Hialeah FL 224,634 9 AE 1.7 AE AE AE AE Hollywood FL 139, AE 2.1 AE AE AE AE Huntington Beach CA 189, AE 3.4 AE AE AE AE Jacksonville FL 819, , Metairie LA 138, AE 0.3 AE AE AE AE Miami FL 399,457 4 AE 2.5 AE AE AE AE Miami Gardens FL 107, AE 1.8 AE AE AE AE Miramar FL 107, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE New Orleans LA 343,467 5 AE 0.3 AE AE AE AE Norfolk VA 242,751 8 AE 2.9 AE AE AE AE Palm Bay FL 103, , Pembroke Pines FL 123, AE 1.6 AE AE AE AE Port St. Lucie FL 164, , Sacramento CA 466, Savannah GA 136, St. Petersburg FL 244,767 7 AE 4.6 AE AE AE AE Stockton CA 277,588 6 AE 2.8 AE AE AE AE Virginia Beach VA 436,497 3 AE 3.9 AE AE AE AE Commitment threshold: 100% Cape Coral FL 153, , Hialeah FL 224,634 2 AE 3.5 AE AE AE AE Hollywood FL 139, , Metairie LA 138,481 5 AE 3.5 AE AE AE AE Miami Gardens FL 107, , Miramar FL 107, , New Orleans LA 343,467 1 AE 4.5 AE AE AE AE Pembroke Pines FL 123,802 6 AE 4.0 AE AE AE AE The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. Rows for the 10 largest cities are shaded underneath each commitment threshold level. See the legend of Table S3 for further documentation. 7of13

8 Table S7. Coastal state and US total 2010 census populations living on land falling below future committed high tide lines under different emissions scenarios through 2050, making no assumptions about the inevitability of WAIS collapse (baseline case) Population (in thousands of persons) living below committed sea levels by scenario: median (white) and 17th 83rd percentile estimates (shaded) Historical emissions Historical + EIEE RCP 2.6 through 2050 RCP 4.5 through 2050 RCP 6.0 through 2050 RCP 8.5 through 2050 Alaska Alabama California , , ,644 1, , ,736 1, ,943 Connecticut District of Columbia Delaware Florida 2, ,556 4, ,360 4, ,492 5, ,965 5, ,854 5,978 1,296 8,594 Georgia Hawaii Louisiana 1, ,507 1, ,628 1, ,647 1, ,709 1, ,696 1, ,790 Massachusetts Maryland Maine Mississippi North Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey New York , , , , ,782 1, ,019 Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Texas Virginia , , , , ,193 Washington US total 6, ,148 9, ,388 10,052 1,400 17,743 11,535 2,314 18,959 11,194 2,132 18,678 13,508 4,017 20,617 Projections assume zero additional emissions after emissions end dates listed, except for the historical + EIEI scenario. EIEI is the expected future emissions implied by existing energy infrastructure, as estimated in ref. 23. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. Levels of committed warming and SLR associated with each scenario are shown in Table S1. US totals include only the listed states and the District of Columbia. 8of13

9 Table S8. Coastal state and US total 2010 census populations living on land falling below future committed high tide lines under different emissions scenarios through 2100, making no assumptions about the inevitability of WAIS collapse (baseline case) Population (in thousands of persons) living below committed sea levels by scenario: median (white) and 17th 83rd percentile estimates (shaded) RCP 2.6 through 2100 RCP 4.5 through 2100 RCP 6.0 through 2100 RCP 8.5 through 2100 Alaska Alabama California ,675 1, ,106 1,871 1,128 2,610 2,750 2,009 3,482 Connecticut District of Columbia Delaware Florida 4, ,611 6,595 2,590 9,082 8,346 5,665 10,097 10,308 8,729 11,342 Georgia Hawaii Louisiana 1, ,664 1,507 1,100 1,860 1,752 1,379 2,047 2,085 1,801 2,294 Massachusetts Maryland Maine Mississippi North Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey , ,259 1, ,582 New York ,703 1, ,203 1, ,720 2,744 1,912 3,599 Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Texas ,067 1, ,754 Virginia , ,258 1, ,386 1,394 1,176 1,512 Washington US total 10,443 1,739 18,060 15,189 6,316 22,031 19,813 12,560 25,650 26,255 20,625 31,295 Projections assume zero additional emissions after emissions end dates listed. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. Levels of committed warming and SLR associated with each scenario are shown in Table S1. US totals include only the listed states and the District of Columbia. 9of13

10 Table S9. Coastal state and US total 2010 census populations living on land falling below future committed high tide lines under different fixed long-term warming scenarios, making no assumptions about the inevitability of WAIS collapse (baseline case) Population (in thousands of persons) living below committed sea levels by scenario: median (white) and 17th 83rd percentile estimates (shaded) 1.5 C warming 2 C warming 3 C warming 4 C warming Alaska Alabama California 1, ,842 1,775 1,025 2,512 2,441 1,706 3,179 3,360 2,626 4,043 Connecticut Dist. of Columbia Delaware Florida 5, ,250 8,010 5,244 9,926 9,755 7,679 10,996 11,168 10,019 11,827 Georgia Hawaii Louisiana 1, ,744 1,710 1,332 2,015 1,979 1,665 2,212 2,253 2,032 2,433 Massachusetts ,091 Maryland Maine Mississippi North Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey ,229 1, ,466 1,480 1,177 1,798 New York ,897 1, ,635 2,453 1,599 3,290 3,321 2,483 4,131 Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Texas , ,501 1,637 1,057 2,190 Virginia ,145 1, ,373 1,342 1,035 1,463 1,473 1,359 1,620 Washington US total 12,383 2,893 19,673 18,984 11,584 25,030 24,202 17,929 29,414 30,114 24,982 34,487 Pure warming scenarios assume long-term fixed warming levels, and make no predictions about the timing of ensuing SLR. Levels of committed SLR associated with each scenario are shown in Table S1. US totals include only the listed states and the District of Columbia. 10 of 13

11 Table S10. Coastal state and US total 2010 census populations living on land falling below future committed high tide lines under different emissions scenarios through 2050, assuming the inevitable collapse of the WAIS under any scenario (triggered case) Population (in thousands) living below committed sea levels by scenario: median (white) and 17th 83rd percentile estimates (shaded) Historical emissions Historical + EIEE RCP 2.6 through 2050 RCP 4.5 through 2050 RCP 6.0 through 2050 RCP 8.5 through 2050 Alaska Alabama California 1,835 1,126 2,539 1,922 1,221 2,627 1,936 1,237 2,641 1,975 1,281 2,682 1,967 1,272 2,673 2,025 1,336 2,732 Connecticut Dist. of Columbia Delaware Florida 8,297 5,751 10,003 8,572 6,105 10,160 8,617 6,162 10,185 8,748 6,313 10,262 8,719 6,283 10,245 8,903 6,482 10,358 Georgia Hawaii Louisiana 1,740 1,383 2,025 1,779 1,427 2,056 1,785 1,434 2,061 1,802 1,455 2,075 1,798 1,450 2,072 1,824 1,481 2,091 Massachusetts Maryland Maine Mississippi North Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey , , ,292 1, ,307 1, ,304 1, ,325 New York 1,917 1,051 2,711 2,010 1,148 2,800 2,025 1,164 2,815 2,069 1,211 2,858 2,059 1,201 2,849 2,122 1,267 2,911 Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Texas , , , , , ,149 Virginia 1, ,382 1, ,395 1, ,397 1, ,403 1, ,402 1, ,410 Washington US total 19,758 12,876 25,363 20,512 13,779 25,961 20,634 13,927 26,058 20,989 14,339 26,344 20,912 14,252 26,281 21,420 14,822 26,696 Projections assume zero additional emissions after emissions end dates listed, except for the historical + EIEI scenario. EIEI is the expected future emissions implied by existing energy infrastructure, as estimated in ref. 23. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. Levels of committed warming and SLR associated with each scenario are shown in Table S2. US totals include only the listed states and the District of Columbia. 11 of 13

12 Table S11. Coastal state and US total 2010 census populations living on land falling below future committed high tide lines under different emissions scenarios through 2100, assuming the inevitable collapse of the WAIS under any scenario (triggered case) Population (in thousands of persons) living below committed sea levels by scenario: median (white) and 17th 83rd percentile estimates (shaded) RCP 2.6 through 2100 RCP 4.5 through 2100 RCP 6.0 through 2100 RCP 8.5 through 2100 Alaska Alabama California 1,947 1,249 2,652 2,070 1,382 2,776 2,282 1,595 2,990 2,904 2,197 3,602 Connecticut District of Columbia Delaware Florida 8,654 6,209 10,206 9,014 6,633 10,443 9,502 7,336 10,777 10,595 9,253 11,458 Georgia Hawaii Louisiana 1,790 1,440 2,065 1,843 1,504 2,104 1,925 1,612 2,164 2,131 1,880 2,325 Massachusetts ,004 Maryland Maine Mississippi North Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey 1, ,296 1, ,342 1, ,416 1,332 1,044 1,635 New York 2,037 1,178 2,827 2,169 1,318 2,957 2,366 1,547 3,159 2,922 2,134 3,738 Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Texas , , ,345 1, ,856 Virginia 1, ,399 1, ,416 1,316 1,001 1,444 1,418 1,254 1,538 Washington US total 20,734 14,048 26,138 21,775 15,242 27,010 23,338 17,142 28,387 27,379 22,240 32,061 Projections assume zero additional emissions after emissions end dates listed. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. Levels of committed warming and SLR associated with each scenario are shown in Table S1. US totals include only the listed states and the District of Columbia. 12 of 13

13 Table S12. Coastal state and US total 2010 census populations living on land falling below future committed high tide lines under different fixed long-term warming scenarios, assuming the inevitable collapse of the WAIS under any scenario (triggered case) Population (in thousands of persons) living below committed sea levels by scenario: median (white) and 17th 83rd percentile estimates (shaded) 1.5 C warming 2 C warming 3 C warming 4 C warming Alaska Alabama California 2,035 1,346 2,741 2,235 1,552 2,943 2,639 1,933 3,339 3,546 2,848 4,134 Connecticut District of Columbia Delaware Florida 8,924 6,512 10,375 9,422 7,193 10,714 10,119 8,513 11,191 11,380 10,449 11,921 Georgia Hawaii Louisiana 1,828 1,485 2,094 1,909 1,591 2,152 2,050 1,772 2,257 2,304 2,106 2,461 Massachusetts ,128 Maryland Maine Mississippi North Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey 1, ,328 1, ,404 1, ,537 1,564 1,268 1,863 New York 2,130 1,276 2,918 2,338 1,514 3,130 2,671 1,876 3,481 3,550 2,735 4,285 Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Texas , ,309 1, ,640 1,795 1,208 2,231 Virginia 1, ,411 1, ,439 1,382 1,155 1,490 1,509 1,398 1,645 Washington US total 21,487 14,903 26,756 23,064 16,796 28,132 25,611 20,112 30,496 31,358 26,608 35,175 Pure warming scenarios assume long-term fixed warming levels, and make no predictions about the timing of ensuing SLR. Levels of committed SLR associated with each scenario are shown in Table S1. US totals include only the listed states and the District of Columbia. 13 of 13