Report on Analysis of the 2014 National Emissions Inventory for the CAPCOG Region and Selected Updates

Transcription

1 PGA , Amendment 2 Task 2.1, Deliverable Report on Analysis of the 2014 National Emissions Inventory for the CAPCOG Region and Selected Updates Prepared by the Capital Area Council of Governments December 9, 2016 PREPARED UNDER A GRANT FROM THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY The preparation of this report was financed through grants from the State of Texas through the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The content, findings, opinions, and conclusions are the work of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent findings, opinions, or conclusions of the TCEQ. Page 1 of 74

2 Executive Summary This report provides an analysis of the initial public release of the 2014 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) data for the 10-County Capital Area Council of Governments (CAPCOG) region. CAPCOG includes Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, Travis, and Williamson Counties. This report also includes documentation of proposed updates for version 2 of the 2014 NEI. For this project, CAPCOG was primarily interested in the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO X), but included data summaries and updates for all criteria pollutants as well: carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH 3), lead (Pb), particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns (PM 2.5), particulate matter smaller than 10 microns (PM 10), sulfur dioxide (SO 2), and volatile organic compounds (VOC). The following table summarizes the total criteria pollutant emissions by county. Table ES-1-1. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by County (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Bastrop 13, , ,844 21, ,288 Blanco 5, , ,368 Burnet 11, , ,441 11, ,785 Caldwell 9,261 1,013 2, ,091 7, ,871 Fayette 16, , ,709 9, ,296 Hays 22, , ,971 23,365 1,422 20,663 Lee 6, , ,039 7, ,283 Llano 6, , ,395 Travis 85,989 1,476 16, ,789 39, ,333 Williamson 30,914 2,374 6, ,408 32, ,969 TOTAL 209,258 9,135 49, , ,872 4, ,251 The following table summarizes the total criteria pollutant emissions by major source group: biogenic, fires, point, area, on-road, and non-road sources. Table ES-1-2. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by Source Type (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Biogenic 30, , ,923 Fires 8, ,983 Point 10, , ,141 1,831 2,920 1,104 Area 14,034 8,122 4, , , ,356 On-Road 102, , , ,579 Non-Road 43, , ,305 TOTAL 209,258 9,135 49, , ,872 4, ,251 CAPCOG s recommended updates to the 2014 NEI include updates to the vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) program compliance factors for Travis and Williamson Counties, updates to gasoline sulfur content for all CAPCOG counties and overlapping fuel regions modeled by the Texas Transportation Institute, and area source commercial fuel combustion. Page 2 of 74

3 Contents Executive Summary... 2 Contents Review of 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1 data Emissions Inventory Categorization Biogenic Emissions Fire Emissions On-Road Emissions Non-Road Emissions Point Source Emissions Area Source Emissions Identification of Significant Sources of Ozone Precursors Summary & Conclusions Regarding 2014 NEI Documentation of Updates to the 2014 NEI Updates to the I/M County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory Updates to the Fuel County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory Existing Fuel County Databases Updates to Fuel County Databases Updates to the Commercial Fuel Combustion Emissions Estimates for the Area Source Emissions Inventory Existing Updates & Other Data Sources Reviewed Descriptions of Electronic Files Submitted for QA Appendix A: ERG QA Memo on Updates to I/M and Fuel County Databases Appendix B: ERG QA Memo on Updates to Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Area Source Emissions Inventory Appendix C: CAPCOG QA Report for Review of 2014 National Emissions Inventory version Appendix D: Electronic Files Submitted Appendix E: Emission Pie Charts by Pollutant Appendix F: References for 2014 Emissions Inventory Analysis EPA Files TCEQ Files Page 3 of 74

4 Table ES-1-1. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by County (tpy)... 2 Table ES-1-2. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by Source Type (tpy)... 2 Table Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by County (tpy)... 8 Table Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by SCC source type (tpy)... 8 Table fire emissions by county (tpy)... 9 Table fire emissions by fire type (tpy) Table on-road source emissions totals by county (tpy) Table on-road source emissions totals by vehicle type (tpy) Table on-road source emissions totals by vehicle fuel type (tpy) Table 1-8. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated on-road emissions and EPA-estimated on-road emissions (tpy) Table non-road emissions by county (tpy) Table non-road emissions by sector (tpy) Table non-road emissions by fuel type (tpy) Table Comparison of TCEQ-estimated non-road emissions and EPA-estimated non-road emissions (tpy) Table point source emissions totals by county (tpy) Table Comparison of TCEQ-estimated point source emissions and EPA-estimated point source emissions (tpy) Table point source emissions totals by EPA Tier 1 category (tpy) Table area source emissions totals by county (tpy) Table area source emissions totals by tier 1 (tpy) Table Comparison of TCEQ-estimated area source emissions and EPA-estimated area source emissions (tpy) Table area source fuel combustion emissions by -estimated on-road emissions and EPAestimated on-road emissions CAPCOG Tier 5 (tpy) Table oil and gas area source emissions totals by equipment type (tpy) Table solvent utilization VOC emissions by category (tpy) Table Analysis of Source Categories by Emissions Thresholds Table Analysis of Point Sources by Emissions Thresholds Table Analysis of Area Sources by Emissions Thresholds Table Area source emissions categories meeting the NO X significance threshold Table Analysis of On-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds Table Analysis of Non-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds Table Non-road equipment types meeting the NO X significance threshold Table Individual SCCs Meeting the NO X significance threshold ranked Table Summary of Significant Sources of Ozone-Forming Emissions in the CAPCOG Region Table Comparison of TCEQ-estimated anthropogenic emissions and EPA-estimated anthropogenic emissions (tpy) Table 2-1. I/M Compliance Factor Updates for Travis and Williamson Counties Page 4 of 74

5 Table 2-2. Existing Summer 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs - Texas MOVES Fuel Regions Table 2-3. Existing Winter 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs - Texas MOVES Fuel Regions Table 2-4. CAPCOG Counties & Corresponding Fuel Region Table Summer Fuel Study Sampling Locations in the CAPCOG Region Table 2-6. Updated Summer 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs For Selected Regions Table 2-7. Comparison of Diesel Sulfur Averages in TTI Report & CAPCOG Calculations (ppm) Table 2-8. Existing County Allocations for Commercial Fuel Combustion in the ICI Tool v Table 2-9. Emissions Factors Used for Area Source Commercial and Institutional Fuel Combustion Table Existing 2014 Area Source Commercial/Institutional Natural Gas Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates Table March 2014 Employment Totals for Texas and CAPCOG Region for NAICS Codes Table March 2014 Employment Totals for Texas and CAPCOG Region for NAICS Codes (% of adjusted state total) Table Estimated County-Level Fuel Consumption Table Point Sources to Investigate for Possible Double-Counting with Area Sources Table Point Source Subtraction Summary Table Estimated County-Level Fuel Consumption Table Comparison of RRC Gas Utility Data to 2014 NEI Activity Table Texas RRC Gas Data Compared to EIA Data NG Consumed and # of Customers Table U.S. Commercial Building Natural Gas, Employment, and Floor Space from CBECS (National) Table U.S. Commercial Building Natural Gas, Employment, and Floor Space from CBECS (National) Table U.S. and West South Central Commercial Natural Gas Comparison Table West South Central Commercial Building Natural Gas and RSE from CBECS Table Summary of NO X Emissions Standards Under 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter E, Division 3 58 Table Boilers by County and Fuel Type, Table Aggregate Boiler Heat Input by Age and Heat Input Category (MMBtu/hr) Table Aggregate Boiler Heat Input by Age and Heat Input Category (%) Table Annual Area Source Commercial Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates Table OSD Area Source Commercial Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates Table Comparison of Updated Annual Commercial Fuel Combustion NO X to Existing Estimates Table Comparison of Updated Annual Commercial Fuel Combustion NO X to Existing Estimates Figure 1-1. Comparison of Biogenic Emissions by Periodic Emissions Inventory Year... 9 Figure 1-2. Comparison of 2014 Fire Emissions to 2011 Fire Emissions (tpy) Figure 1-3. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 On-Road NO X Emissions by County (tpy) Figure 1-4. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NO X Emissions by County (tpy).. 16 Figure 1-5. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NO X Emissions by Sector (tpy) Figure 2-1. Average June 2014 Gasoline Sulfur Content by Fuel Region (ppm) with 95% Confidence Interval Page 5 of 74

6 Figure 2-2. Comparison of County-Level Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Allocations Figure 2-3. Commercial Natural Gas Consumption in Texas by Month, Figure 2-4. Ozone Season Weekday and Weekend Day Allocations of Annual Emissions Figure E CAPCOG CO Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Figure E CAPCOG NH 3 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Figure E CAPCOG NO X Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Figure E CAPCOG Pb Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Figure E CAPCOG PM 2.5 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Figure E CAPCOG PM 10 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Figure E CAPCOG SO 2 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Figure E CAPCOG VOC Emissions by Source Type (tpy) Page 6 of 74

7 1 Review of 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1 data This section contains CAPCOG s review of the 2014 NEI v1 data for the 10 counties in the CAPCOG region. CAPCOG categorized the emissions into six major source categories biogenic emissions, fire emissions, on-road emissions, non-road emissions, point source emissions, and area source emissions. These categories do not correspond directly to the files available from EPA, but are designed to more easily enable direct comparisons to data available from other inventory years or from TCEQ. Since one of the major objectives of this project was to identify major sources of ozone-forming pollutants CAPCOG focuses most of the analysis in this report on NO X emissions and, to a lesser extent, VOC emissions, although all criteria pollutant emissions estimates are presented. CAPCOG defined a major source of ozone-forming emissions as sources or categories that emitted either 250 tpy NO X or 10,000 tpy VOC. 1.1 Emissions Inventory Categorization CAPCOG categorizes emissions sources for this report as follows: Biogenic Sources (obtained from EPA s nonpoint emissions file) Fire Emissions (obtained from EPA s prescribed and wildfire emissions file) Anthropogenic Sources o Mobile Sources On-Road Sources (obtained from EPA s on-road emissions file) Non-Road Sources (obtained from EPA s non-road emissions file, as well as portions of EPA s nonpoint and facility by process emissions files) o Stationary Sources Point Sources (obtained from EPA s facility by process emissions file) Area Sources (obtained from EPA s nonpoint emissions file and, for refueling emissions only, EPA s on-road emissions file). Mobile sources are defined as sources that move at least one time a year. On-road sources are any mobile sources that are registered to operate on public roads. Non-road sources are any mobile sources that are not registered to operate on public roads. Stationary sources are sources that do not move at least once a year. Point sources are any stationary sources that are required to report its emissions to TCEQ, and are available at a facility- and unit-level. Area sources are any stationary sources that do not report to TCEQ, and are available at the countylevel. 1.2 Biogenic Emissions CAPCOG obtained EPA s 2014 biogenic emissions data from EPA s detailed nonpoint data and aggregated it by county and by emissions type. 1 These data are shown in the tables below. 1 EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-point source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonpoint.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016. Page 7 of 74

8 Table Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by County (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Bastrop 3, , Blanco 2, , Burnet 3, , Caldwell 2, , Fayette 3, , Hays 2, , Lee 2, , Llano 3, , Travis 3, , Williamson 3, , TOTAL 30, , , Table Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by SCC source type (tpy) Description CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Vegetation 30, , Agriculture , TOTAL 30, , , Biogenic emissions constituted both a major source of VOC emissions and NO X emissions in the 2014 inventory. The following figure shows a comparison of EPA s estimates of the 2014 biogenic emissions in the CAPCOG region to EPA s estimates for biogenic emissions in its 2011 NEI v2. 2 Note that the VOC emissions are divided by 10 in the figure below in order to enable to fit all three pollutants on the figure. 2 ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2011/2011neiv2_nonroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 11/5/2016. Page 8 of 74

9 Emissions (tpy) CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review and Updates Figure 1-1. Comparison of Biogenic Emissions by Periodic Emissions Inventory Year 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, ,000 5,000 0 CO NOX VOC/ Fire Emissions Fire emissions are categorized by EPA as Event emissions because they correspond to specific firerelated emissions events that can be individually modeled in space and time. This category includes four SCCs: : Smoldering Forest Fires : Flaming Forest Fires : Smoldering Prescribed Fires : Flaming Prescribed Fires CAPCOG obtained the 2014 emissions estimates from EPA s 2014 NEI website and grouped the emissions by county and by prescribed (SCCs and ) versus wildfire (SCCs and ) emissions, as shown in the tables below. 3 Table fire emissions by county (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Bastrop 2, Blanco Burnet Caldwell 1, EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, prescribed/wildfires county-level by SCC summary. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_eventfire_countyscc.zip. Accessed 9/28/2016. Page 9 of 74

10 County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Fayette 1, Hays Lee Llano Travis Williamson Total 8, , Table fire emissions by fire type (tpy) SCC Level Four CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Forest Wildfires Prescribed Fires 7, , Total 8, , For 2014, fire emissions did not constitute a significant source of ozone-forming emissions for the CAPCOG region. This is in sharp contrast to 2011, when the CAPCOG region experienced historically bad wildfires. The following figure compares the criteria pollutant emissions for fires in 2011 compared to The 2011 estimates were based on EPA s 2011 NEI v CO emissions were divided by 10 on the figure below to allow the data to fit on the figure along with the other pollutants. 4 ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2011/2011neiv2_eventfire_countyscc_caphap.zip. Accessed 11/5/2016. Page 10 of 74

11 Emissions (tpy) CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review and Updates Figure 1-2. Comparison of 2014 Fire Emissions to 2011 Fire Emissions (tpy) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, ,000 5,000 0 CO/10 NH3 NOX PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC 1.4 On-Road Emissions For on-road sources, states are required to submit activity data to the EPA, which then used the MOVES2014 model to develop emissions estimates. Since the method that EPA uses for modeling onroad emissions differs from the method TCEQ uses, the actual emissions estimates generated by TCEQ for 2014 using the activity data submitted to EPA differ from the EPA s 2014 emissions estimates using the same activity data. The following table shows the total 2014 on-road criteria pollutant emissions modeled by EPA for each county. 5 As explained earlier, while EPA includes refueling emissions in its onroad emissions file, the tables below do not include refueling emissions, which CAPCOG is including among the area source emissions estimates in section 1.7 of this report. Table on-road source emissions totals by county (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Bastrop 5, , Blanco 1, Burnet 3, Caldwell 3, Fayette 3, , Hays 11, , EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, on-road source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_onroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016. Page 11 of 74

12 County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Lee 1, Llano 1, Travis 51, , , Williamson 18, , , Total 102, , , , The table below shows the totals by vehicle type corresponding to the MOVES2014 source use types: MC = Motorcycle PC = Passenger Car PT = Passenger Truck LCT = Light Commercial Truck T_Bus = Transit Bus S_Bus = School Bus I_Bus = Intercity Bus R_Truck = Refuse Truck SU_ShT = Single Unit Short-Haul Truck SU_LhT = Single Unit Long-Haul Truck MH = Motor Home C_ShT = Combination Short-Haul Truck C_LhT = Combination Long-Haul Truck Table on-road source emissions totals by vehicle type (tpy) Vehicle Type CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC MC PC 51, , , PT 34, , , LCT 9, , T_Bus S_Bus I_Bus R_Truck SU_ShT 3, , SU_LhT MH C_ShT 1, , C_LhT 1, , TOTAL 102, , , , CAPCOG also grouped the emissions by fuel type, shown in the table below: Page 12 of 74

13 Table on-road source emissions totals by vehicle fuel type (tpy) Fuel Type CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Gasoline 98, , , Diesel 3, , TOTAL 102, , , , The table below shows a comparison between TCEQ s 2014 on-road emissions estimate and EPA s 2014 on-road emissions estimate using the same activity data. Table 1-8. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated on-road emissions and EPA-estimated on-road emissions (tpy) Estimate CO NH 3 NO X PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC TCEQ 93, , , , EPA 102, , , , Difference 8, , % Difference 8.64% -0.93% 6.26% 8.24% 5.45% 6.94% 5.99% Two possible explanations for the difference in emissions are: 1) the TCEQ s application of emission reductions to diesel-powered on-road vehicles due to the use of Texas Low-Emission Diesel (TxLED), which achieves a 4.8% - 6.2% NO X reduction, depending on model year, and 2) the TCEQ approach to modeling link-based emissions inventories, which involves applying emissions rates to link-level activity for Bastrop, Burnet, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, and Williamson Counties, versus the EPA s approach to modeling county-level emissions data. The following figure summarizes the comparison of the TCEQ s estimated on-road NO X emissions to EPA s estimated on-road NO X emissions by county. EPA s estimates were higher in every county, ranging from 4.0% higher in Williamson County than TCEQ s estimate up to 17.5% higher in Fayette County. The four counties that did not have link-based emissions data had the largest deviations 11.3% in Blanco County, 13.9% in Llano County, 15.9% in Lee County, and 17.5% in Fayette County. Page 13 of 74

14 NO X Emissions (tpy) CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review and Updates Figure 1-3. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 On-Road NO X Emissions by County (tpy) TCEQ Estimate EPA Estimate 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Non-Road Emissions The Non-Road emissions category includes emissions from engines that are moved at least once a year and are not registered to operate on public roads. This includes sources that were included in the EPA s non-road SCC file, 6 but also includes sources that were included in EPA s point 7 and non-point 8 SCC files, including aviation, rail, and drill rig sources. The following table shows the 2014 non-road emissions by county. Table non-road emissions by county (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Bastrop 1, Blanco Burnet 3, Caldwell 1, Fayette 2, EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-road source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/ EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, point source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_facility_process_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/ EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-point source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonpoint.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016. Page 14 of 74

15 County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Hays 2, Lee Llano 1, Travis 23, , ,190 Williamson 6, , Total 43, , ,305 CAPCOG grouped the non-road emissions by sector and by fuel type. This roughly corresponds to SCC levels 2 and 3. However, the SCC structure is somewhat different for non-road model categories than it is for aircraft, locomotives/rail equipment, and drill rigs. CAPCOG s summary data file submitted as part of this report includes the structure CAPCOG used for grouping these emissions sources corresponding to each SCC. The table below shows emissions by sector. Table non-road emissions by sector (tpy) Sector CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Agricultural Equipment 1, , Airports 1, Commercial Equipment 10, Construction and Mining 4, , Industrial Equipment 2, Lawn and Garden Equipment 13, ,149 Logging Equipment Oil and Gas Production Pleasure Craft 1, Rail , Recreational Equipment 6, ,000 Total 43, , ,305 Construction and mining equipment represents the single largest sector, with agricultural equipment, rail, airports, industrial equipment, and commercial equipment all having NO X emissions above 250 tpy. Table non-road emissions by fuel type (tpy) Fuel Type CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Diesel 4, , Gasoline 35, ,278 LPG 2, CNG Aviation Fuel 1, Total 43, , ,305 Page 15 of 74

16 NO X Emissions (tpy) CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review and Updates The following table shows a comparison of EPA s non-road emissions estimates to TCEQ s emissions estimates. Table Comparison of TCEQ-estimated non-road emissions and EPA-estimated non-road emissions (tpy) Estimate CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC TCEQ 47, , , EPA 43, , , Difference -3, , % Difference -8.4% -56.3% 17.8% n/a 11.7% 11.5% 8.6% 2.6% The following figure summarizes the comparison of the TCEQ s estimated non-road NO X emissions to EPA s estimated non-road NO X emissions by county. As the figure shows, NO X estimates were higher in some counties and lower in other counties. Figure 1-4. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NO X Emissions by County (tpy) TCEQ Estimate EPA Estimate 5, , , , , , , , , The figure below shows a comparison of TCEQ s estimates of NO X emissions by equipment classification compared to EPA s estimates. Page 16 of 74

17 NO X Emissions (tpy) CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review and Updates Figure 1-5. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NO X Emissions by Sector (tpy) TCEQ Estimate EPA Estimate 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, As the figure shows, most of the difference in NO X emissions is in the construction & mining source classification. The Texas NONROAD (TexN) model s specialized treatment of construction and mining equipment is a likely explanation for this difference. TexN also includes other specialized adjustments, including for temperature, humidity, and elevation, and post-processing adjustments for the effects of TxLED. 1.6 Point Source Emissions Point sources are included in EPA s detailed facility emissions inventory file. 9 Since this file includes airports and railyards, CAPCOG removed those emissions from the point source emissions totals for each county show in the table below. Table point source emissions totals by county (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Bastrop Blanco EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, point source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_facility_process_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016. Page 17 of 74

18 County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Burnet Caldwell Fayette 5, , Hays 4, , , Lee Llano Travis 1, , Williamson Total 10, , , , , , The following table shows a comparison of EPA s emissions estimates to TCEQ s 2014 State Summary file. 10 Table Comparison of TCEQ-estimated point source emissions and EPA-estimated point source emissions (tpy) Estimate CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC TCEQ 10, , ,070 1,831 2,939 1,101 EPA 10, , ,141 1,831 2,920 1,104 Difference % Difference -0.05% 59.50% -0.06% 0.59% 6.25% -0.03% -0.66% 0.27% There are 38 total facilities in TCEQ s 2014 point source summary, and 43 total facilities in EPA s 2014 point source emissions inventory file. Facilities in EPA s list that are not in TCEQ s list include the following: 1. BAE Systems in Travis County 2. Celestica in Travis County 3. Chemical Lime Ltd. in Burnet County 4. Flextronics America LLC in Travis County 5. Hanson Pipe & Products Inc. Austin in Travis County The only criteria pollutants reported for these facilities are lead emissions collectively totaling tpy, corresponding exactly to the difference identified in the table above. The following table shows a summary of point source emissions by Tier 1 emissions category Page 18 of 74

19 Table point source emissions totals by EPA Tier 1 category (tpy) Tier 1 CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 5, , , Fuel Comb. Industrial , Fuel Comb. Other Storage & Transport Waste Disposal & Recycling Chemical & Allied Product Mfg Metals Processing Petroleum & Related Industries Other Industrial Processes 3, , , Solvent Utilization TOTAL 10, , ,141 1,831 2,920 1,104 Page 19 of 74

20 1.7 Area Source Emissions Area sources include any stationary sources not included in the point source inventory. This includes all sources in EPA s nonpoint emissions file 11 other than biogenic emissions and rail emissions, and includes the stage 2 refueling emissions in EPA s on-road emissions file. 12 The following tables show summaries of the area source emissions by county and by tier 1 source category. Table area source emissions totals by county (tpy) County CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Bastrop 1, <0.01 2,379 20, ,225 Blanco < , Burnet <0.01 1,285 11, Caldwell 1, < , ,541 Fayette <0.01 1,025 8, ,747 Hays 1, <0.01 2,573 22, ,017 Lee < , ,055 Llano , Travis 5,308 1,139 1,371 <0.01 4,895 38, ,113 Williamson 2,008 2, <0.01 4,098 32, ,731 Total 14,034 8,122 4, , , ,356 Table area source emissions totals by tier 1 (tpy) Tier 1 CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Stationary Fuel Combustion 3, , Mobile Sources , , Industrial Processes 2, , ,965 23, ,414 Solvent Utilization ,853 Storage and Transport ,052 Wst. Disp., Trtmt., and Rec. 5, Misc. 2,456 7, ,806 8, Total 14,034 8,122 4, , , ,356 The following table shows a comparison of EPA s emissions estimates to TCEQ s emissions estimates for area sources. As the table shows, EPA s estimates for NO X emissions are 2.4% higher for NO X, and 5.84% lower for VOC. 11 EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-point source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonpoint.zip. Accessed 9/26/ EPA National Emissions Inventory version 1, on-road source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/emisinventory/2014/2014neiv1_onroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016. Page 20 of 74

21 Table Comparison of TCEQ-estimated area source emissions and EPA-estimated area source emissions (tpy) Estimate CO NH 3 NO X PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC TCEQ 10, , , , , , EPA 14, , , , , , Difference 3, , , , % Difference 27.74% -8.34% 2.42% -6.08% -9.67% 5.87% -5.84% CAPCOG performed more detailed analyses of each of the three area source categories that had either >=250 tpy NO X or >=10,000 tpy VOC. Page 21 of 74

22 The following table shows the emissions estimates for stationary area source fuel combustion. Table area source fuel combustion emissions by -estimated on-road emissions and EPA-estimated on-road emissions CAPCOG Tier 5 (tpy) CAPCOG Tier 5 CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Industrial Coal Industrial Distillate Oil Industrial Residual Oil Industrial Natural Gas Industrial LPG Industrial Wood Industrial Kerosene Comm. / Inst. Coal Comm. / Inst. Distillate Oil Comm. / Inst. Residual Oil Comm. / Inst. Natural Gas Comm. / Inst. LPG Comm. / Inst. Wood Comm. / Inst. Kerosene Comm. / Inst. Coal Residential Subbituminous Coal Residential Distillate Oil Residential Natural Gas Residential LPG Residential Wood 2, Residential Firelog Residential Kerosene TOTAL 3, , Page 22 of 74

23 The following table shows the emissions from the oil and gas sector by equipment type. Table oil and gas area source emissions totals by equipment type (tpy) CAPCOG Tier 5 CO NH 3 NO X Pb PM 2.5 PM 10 SO 2 VOC Amine Unit Artificial Lift 1, Boilers/Heaters: Natural Gas Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas Completions Compressors Dehydrators Diesel Engines Flares Flashing Fugitives , Heaters Hydraulic Fracturing Engines Mud Degassing Other Pneumatic Devices & Pumps , Pressure/Level Controllers Produced Water Storage and Loading , Venting TOTAL 2, , , Page 23 of 74

24 Lastly, the following table shows the VOC emissions by SCC level 2 & 3. Table solvent utilization VOC emissions by category (tpy) SCC Level 2 SCC Level 3 VOC Surface Coating Architectural Coatings 1, Surface Coating Auto Refinishing: SIC Surface Coating Traffic Markings 2.47 Surface Coating Textile Products: SIC Surface Coating Factory Finished Wood: SIC 2426 thru Surface Coating Wood Furniture: SIC Surface Coating Metal Furniture: SIC Surface Coating Paper: SIC Surface Coating Plastic Products: SIC Surface Coating Metal Cans: SIC Surface Coating Metal Coils: SIC Surface Coating Miscellaneous Finished Metals: SIC 34 - ( ) 1, Surface Coating Machinery and Equipment: SIC Surface Coating Large Appliances: SIC Surface Coating Electronic and Other Electrical: SIC Surface Coating Motor Vehicles: SIC Surface Coating Aircraft: SIC Surface Coating Marine: SIC Surface Coating Railroad: SIC Surface Coating Miscellaneous Manufacturing Surface Coating Industrial Maintenance Coatings Surface Coating Other Special Purpose Coatings 6.00 Degreasing All Processes/All Industries Dry Cleaning All Processes Graphic Arts All Processes Miscellaneous Industrial Adhesive (Industrial) Application Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Personal Care Products 1, Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Household Products 1, Page 24 of 74

25 SCC Level 2 SCC Level 3 VOC Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Automotive Aftermarket Products 1, Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Coatings and Related Products Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Adhesives and Sealants Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All FIFRA Related Products 1, Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial Miscellaneous Products (Not Otherwise Covered) Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial Cutback Asphalt Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial Emulsified Asphalt 1, Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial Pesticide Application: Agricultural TOTAL Total 16, Page 25 of 74

26 1.8 Identification of Significant Sources of Ozone Precursors In CAPCOG s interim report on the 2014 NEI, CAPCOG used the following criteria for determining if a source of ozone precursor emissions was considered significant: At least 250 tpy of NO X emissions; At least 7,500 tpy of VOC emissions; or At least 1 tpd of NO X emissions on a typical ozone season weekday; At least 30 tpd of VOC emissions on a typical ozone season weekday. The 250 tpy threshold for NO X emissions was based on this being the level of emissions that can trigger prevention of significant deterioration (PSD) permitting for point sources. The 1 tpd of NO X emissions threshold was based on a rough ratio of 10 tpd NO X emissions within the Austin-Round Rock MSA per 1 ppb peak O 3, and a 0.1 ppb impact being the smallest ozone impact that could have an impact on an area s O 3 design value. The 7,500 tpy VOC and 30 tpd VOC levels were based on a rough ratio of 300 tpd of VOC emissions per 1 ppb peak O 3. Since the 2014 NEI data provided by EPA is only an annual estimate, for this report, CAPCOG only used annual tpy thresholds for NO X and VOC. CAPCOG s re-analysis of the June 2006 O 3 episode data modeled by UT in 2012 for its 2016 Ozone Conceptual Model showed that the average ratio of NO X sensitivity to VOC sensitivity at CAMS 3 was 38.8 on the top 10 days modeled, and 38.4 on the top 5 days modeled. These ratios are even higher for CAMS 38 (58.6 and 71.9 for the top 10 and top 5 days, respectively) and Travis County (101.4 and for the top 10 and top 5 days, respectively). The re-analysis showed that it would take 385 tpd-500 tpd VOC in order to produce 1 tpd of peak O 3 at CAMS 3, whereas it would take tpd NO X to produce 1 ppb peak O 3 at CAMS Therefore, CAPCOG established a general ratio of 40 tpy VOC being equivalent to 1 tpy NO X for this analysis. The resulting thresholds for this report are: 250 tpy NO X or higher 10,000 tpy VOC or higher From a county-by-county perspective, each of the 10 counties in the region had at least 250 tpy NO X emissions and at least 10,000 tpy VOC emissions, so each county s emissions can be considered significant for regional O 3 formation for this report. 13 CAPCOG. CAPCOG Ozone Conceptual Model September 23, Available online at: CAPCOG_Ozone_Conceptual_Model_2016.pdf. See figures 8-3 and 8-4. Page 26 of 74

27 Looking region-wide, five of the six broad emissions categories met one or the other of these thresholds: Table Analysis of Source Categories by Emissions Thresholds Source Category 2014 NO X Emissions met significance threshold 2014 VOC Emissions met significance threshold Biogenic Fires Point Area On-Road Non-Road The following tables show drill-downs for each of the anthropogenic emissions source categories to further levels of detail. Table Analysis of Point Sources by Emissions Thresholds Source Category 2014 NO X Emissions (tpy) 2014 NO X Emissions met significance threshold Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 6,878 Fuel Comb. Industrial 1,019 Fuel Comb. Other 71 Storage & Transport 4 Waste Disposal & Recycling 42 Chemical & Allied Product Mfg 0 Metals Processing 0 Petroleum & Related Industries 4 Other Industrial Processes 2,983 Solvent Utilization 0 Table Analysis of Area Sources by Emissions Thresholds Source Category 2014 NO X Emissions (tpy) Met NO X significance threshold 2014 VOC Emissions (tpy) Met VOC significance threshold Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 2, Mobile Sources Industrial Processes 1,872 8,414 Solvent Utilization 0 16,853 Storage and Transport 0 3,052 Page 27 of 74

28 Source Category Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery Miscellaneous Area Sources 2014 NO X Emissions (tpy) Met NO X significance threshold 2014 VOC Emissions (tpy) Met VOC significance threshold Table Area source emissions categories meeting the NO X significance threshold Emissions Source Type Source Category 2014 NO X Emissions (tpy) Artificial Lift Industrial Processes 732 Residential Natural Gas Fuel Combustion Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 664 Comm./Inst. Natural Gas Fuel Combustion Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 501 Compressors Industrial Processes 500 Industrial Natural Gas Fuel Combustion Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 474 Heaters Industrial Processes 346 Hydraulic Fracturing Engines Industrial Processes 270 There are no more detailed-level solvent utilization sources that meet the 10,000 tpy VOC emissions threshold to be considered significant. Table Analysis of On-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds Source 2014 NO X Emissions met significance 2014 NO X Emissions (tpy) Category threshold Gasoline 11,215 Diesel 9,613 MC 12 PC 5,393 PT 4,393 LCT 1,249 T_Bus 110 S_Bus 252 I_Bus 186 R_Truck 272 SU_ShT 1,451 SU_LhT 195 MH 12 C_ShT 1,703 C_LhT 5,599 Page 28 of 74

29 Table Analysis of Non-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds Source Category 2014 NO X Emissions (tpy) 2014 NO X Emissions met significance threshold Gasoline 8,669 Diesel 486 LPG 342 CNG 23 Aviation Fuel 762 Agricultural Equipment 1,952 Airports 811 Commercial Equipment 443 Construction and Mining Equipment 4,287 Industrial Equipment 582 Lawn and Garden Equipment 195 Logging Equipment 0 Oil and Gas Production 163 Pleasure Craft 103 Rail 1,660 Recreational Equipment 85 Table Non-road equipment types meeting the NO X significance threshold Equipment Type Sector 2014 NO X Emissions (tpy) Line Haul Locomotives Class I Rail 1,414 Agricultural Tractors Agricultural Equipment 1,398 Crawler Tractor/Dozers Construction and Mining Equipment 1,010 Commercial Aircraft Airports 703 Excavators Construction and Mining Equipment 510 Skid Steer Loaders Construction and Mining Equipment 376 Forklifts Industrial Equipment 331 Rollers Construction and Mining Equipment 316 Tractors/Loaders/Backhoes Construction and Mining Equipment 291 Off-Highway trucks Construction and Mining Equipment 268 Rough Terrain Forklifts Construction and Mining Equipment 257 SCC-level emissions sources meeting the NOX emissions significance threshold are shown in the table below: Page 29 of 74

30 Table Individual SCCs Meeting the NO X significance threshold ranked SCC SCC Level 1 SCC Level 2 SCC Level 3 SCC Level Mobile Sources Mobile Sources External Combustion Boilers Mobile Sources Highway Vehicles - Diesel Highway Vehicles - Gasoline Electric Generation Highway Vehicles - Gasoline Natural Sources Biogenic Industrial Processes Mobile Sources Mineral Products Highway Vehicles - Diesel Combination Longhaul Truck Passenger Car Subbituminous Coal, Pulverized Passenger Truck Vegetation/Agricultu re Cement Manufacturing (Dry Process) Combination Shorthaul Truck Mobile Sources Railroad Equipment Diesel Mobile Sources Mobile Sources Mobile Sources Internal Combustion Engines Mobile Sources Off-highway Vehicle Diesel Highway Vehicles - Diesel Highway Vehicles - Gasoline Agricultural Equipment Single Unit Shorthaul Truck Light Commercial Truck All on and off-network processes except refueling All on and off-network processes except refueling Boiler, Dry Bottom Tangential-fired All on and off-network processes except refueling 2014 NO X (tpy) Rank 5, , , ,248 4 Total 3,276 5 Preheater/Precalciner Kiln 2,388 6 All on and off-network processes except refueling Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations 1, ,414 8 Agricultural Tractors 1,386 9 All on and off-network processes except refueling All on and off-network processes except refueling 1, , Electric Generation Natural Gas Turbine 1, Off-highway Vehicle Diesel Construction and Mining Equipment Crawler Tractor/Dozers 1, Page 30 of 74

31 SCC SCC Level 1 SCC Level 2 SCC Level 3 SCC Level NO X (tpy) Rank Industrial Oil and Gas Exploration Processes and Production All Processes Artificial Lift Mobile Sources Aircraft Commercial Aircraft Total: All Types Stationary Source Fuel Combustion Residential Natural Gas Total: All Combustor Types Calcining: Rotary Kiln ** Industrial Mineral Products Lime Manufacture (See SCC Codes Processes 18,-19,-20,-21) Mobile Sources Off-highway Vehicle Construction and Diesel Mining Equipment Excavators Stationary Source Commercial/Institution Fuel Combustion al Natural Gas Total: Boilers and IC Engines Stationary Source Fuel Combustion Industrial Natural Gas Total: Boilers and IC Engines Internal Combustion Engines Industrial Natural Gas Turbine Mobile Sources Industrial Processes Off-highway Vehicle Diesel Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Construction and Mining Equipment On-Shore Gas Production Page 31 of 74 Skid Steer Loaders Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 HP All on and off-network processes except refueling Mobile Sources Highway Vehicles - Single Unit Shorthaul Truck Gasoline Industrial Oil and Gas Exploration On-Shore Oil Processes and Production Production Heater Treater Mobile Sources Off-highway Vehicle Construction and Diesel Mining Equipment Rollers Mobile Sources Off-highway Vehicle Construction and Diesel Mining Equipment Tractors/Loaders/Backhoes Mobile Sources LPG Industrial Equipment Forklifts