Overview of Worldwide Regulation of Diesel Vehicle and Engine Emissions

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1 Overview of Worldwide Regulation of Vehicle and Engine Emissions Corning's Clean Workshop Germany, September 26, 2 Overview s Major Source of PM & NOx Serious Concerns Remain PM Health Effects PM Toxicity Ozone Health Effects (NOx) Secondary PM2.5 Formation (NOx) Major Regulatory Efforts Underway Fuel Sulfur Increasing Focus Retrofit of Existing Vehicles Growing Serious Ozone Air Pollution Problems Remain in the US ~62 (1-hr) to 125 (8-hr) Million People Lived in Non-Attainment Areas in 1999 EPA's Forecast For Ozone Non-Attainment Areas 8 Marginal Areas 129 Million People Living in These Areas Ozone Problems in Europe in 1998 Number of Days over the Limits Indicative Ceiling Danger Limit (36 ug/m3) # of Days /26/ 1-4

2 Nitrogen Dioxide Air Quality Trends In Japan Suspended Particulate Matter Air Quality Trends In Japan PPM mg/m3.6 General Stations Roadside Stations.2 General Stations Roadside Stations Average Source Contribution To Midtown Manhattan Site NOx Emissions From Various Sources in Japan (Tons/Year) PM1 52.5% Auto 5.9% Road Dust 8.9% Sea Salt 5.9% Iron 4.% Oil Combustion 1.% Long Range Transport 21.8% 2.% Off Road Vehicles 1.2% 2-Wheeled Vehicles.1% Nationwide Stationary Sources 47.7% Off Road Vehicles 18.8% 2-Wheeled Vehicles.1% Gasoline Fueled Vehicles 5.6% Fueled Vehicles Fueled Vehicles 32.3% 16.4% Urban Areas 4.4% Stationary Sourc 35.1% Gasoline Fueled Ve 9.3% Chemical Mass Balance AWMA 94-WP91.1 9/26/ 5-8

3 Emissions From Vehicles in Japan Number of Vehicles Gasoline 82.6% 17.4% Gasoline 25.% PM Emissions 1.% NOx Emissions 75.% Gasoline Source: Interim Review July 28, 2 PM1 Study Just Released in Europe (Lancet Medical Journal) ~6% of all deaths from PM1 ~4, deaths per year in Austria, France, Switzerland; 2 times traffic fatalities Motor Vehicles responsible for ~5% People in Cities die about 18 months earlier than they would otherwise over 3, cases of chronic bronchitis; 5, asthma attacks; 16 million lost person days of activity Health costs from pollution from traffic ~1.7% of total GDP Association Between Lung Function of Children Living <3 Meters From Motorway and Intensity of Cargo Traffic FEV1 Liters R-square =.949 # pts = 6 y = e-6x Source (Brunekreef, 1996) 1998 CARB Assessment of PM Toxicity 3 Human Epidemiological Studies Found Link Between PM & Lung Cancer PM Declared "Toxic" STAPPA/ALAPCO Report - ~125, Excess Cancers in US From s Number of Heavy Duty Vehicles Per Working Day Thousands 9/26/ 9-12

4 Average Los Angeles Basin Cancer Risk Apportionment 1,3 Butadiene 8.% Carbonyl 3.% Benzene 7.% Approximate Risk = 1414 per Million 11.% PM 71.% EPA Health Assessment Document - August 2 Highly respirable with large surface area Excellent carrier for organic and inorganic compounds Toxicologically relevant organic compounds include PAHs, nitro PAHs and oxidized PAH derivatives Chemical composition & size vary with engine type, operating conditions & fuel Likely carcinogenic to humans by inhalation at any exposure condition PM Emissions in the UK PM1 17.% PM % 83.% 76.% PM1 PM.1 71.% 29.% Exhaust 48.% 52.% "Source Apportionment of Airborne Particulate Matter in the United Kingdom" 9/26/ 13-16

5 Challenges Around World Substantially Reduce PM Mass Number Toxicity Substantially Reduce NOx Ozone Control Secondary PM Acidification Global Trend in Light Duty NOx Control Grams/km Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 Petrol ULEV2 SULEV Euro 3 Japan 2 Euro 4 Global Trend in Light Duty PM Control Global Trends in Car Durability Requirements Grams/km Useful Life (Kilometers) Thousands Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 ULEV2 SULEV Euro 3 Japan 22 Euro 4 Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 ULEV2 SULEV Euro 3 Japan 22 Euro 4 9/26/ 17-2

6 Global Trend in Heavy Duty Vehicle Emissions Global Trend in Heavy Duty Vehicle Emissions NOx (G/kW-hr) 2 US US Proposal EU Japan PM (G/kW-hr).5 US US Buses EU Japan 15.4 US Proposal Fuel Sulfur Specifications PPM European Overview Low Sulfur Fuels Directive Adopted Tight Heavy Duty Standards Adopted; PM Filters, NOx Aftertreatment Likely But Mid Course Review Allowed Germany Pushing For Lower Sulfur in To Assure Feasibility of Tight Standards US National EU 25 Sweden Class 1 EU 2 Danish City Bus Japan UK US Proposal Germany (23) HK Tax Incentive 9/26/ 21-24

7 European "Call For Evidence" On Very Low Sulfur Fuel Incremental Benefits Incremental Refining Costs Potential Linkage To Advanced Technologies Impact on Fuel Parameters Logistical & Investment Implications Overall Impact on Greenhouse Emissions (Well to Wheel) Open Issues in Europe Is 5 PPM Sulfur Low Enough? Will Filters or Traps Be Used Across the Board To Meet PM Standards? If Not, Implications For Ultra Fine PM? For Toxic Emissions? Should Light Trucks 2 & 3 Be Tightened to Car Standards? Should Light Duty NOx Be Tightened To Gasoline NOx Standards? US Overview CA Adopted LEV2-24; =Gasoline; SUV = Car Federal "Tier 2" Standards Adopted; =Gasoline; SUV = Car Massive Heavy Duty Enforcement Action Stimulating Program Tighter HD PM & NOx Standards Proposed Lower Sulfur in Fuel Proposed Problems With US Truck Program Problems NOx,PM, Fuel Economy Trade-Offs High Sulfur Fuel In Use Performance Versus Lab Performance Proposed Solutions Tight Standards To Force Aftertreatment Low Sulfur (<15 PPM) Fuel SS Test, NTE Provisions, OBD, ROVER 9/26/ 25-28

8 EPA Proposed 27 Requirements NOx - 4 year Phase-in 15 PPM Sulfur - July 26 No Crankcase Emissions Add Euro Test, OBD, Not To Exceed Provisions g/bhp-hr Gasoline NOx NMHC HCHO PM Latest Developments in Japan Tokyo Government & Courts Pushing For Faster Action on PM Shift from NOx to PM Priority Control 27 Standards Brought Forward; Likely New Heavy Duty Transient Test Low Sulfur Fuel (< 5 PPM) Before 25 Aggressive Retrofit Program Being Evaluated For Tokyo Low Speed Driving Conditions Low Sulfur Fuel NO to NO2 Shift Tokyo Five Step " NO" Proposal Ban on Sale and Use of Cars Tighter New Vehicle Standards Brought Forward Shift Tax Benefit Away From Fuel Stimulate Advances in Technology To Control Existing s and Require its Use Commercial Vehicles Replaced By Gasoline Where Possible Major Retrofit Effort Emerging Europe Major Cities in Sweden Germany UK US California Northeast States (NESCAUM) Japan Tokyo 9/26/ 29-32

9 Recent Developments in Hong Kong Tax Incentive Offered For 5 PPM Fuel Likely Strong Retrofit Effort to Follow Taxi Fleet Shifting From to LPG HK$/liter Base Price Fuel Duty Developments in Asia South Korea Shifting to CNG Buses Beijing Purchased 8 CNG Buses Indian Supreme Court Trying to Ban Buses; Low Sulfur Fuel in Delhi Taiwan Forced To Allow Cars; Looking at Stringent PM Standards.5%.5% Sulfur Content Conclusions Progress on New Vehicle Controls Occurring Worldwide Low Sulfur Fuel Spreading Rapidly Aggressive Retrofit Efforts Underway Remaining Questions: Is Europe Finished or Will Tighter Fuels/Vehicle Standards Be Needed? Will US EPA Proposal Prevail? How Successful Will Global Retrofit Efforts Be? 9/26/ 33-36