Emerging Technologies

Transcription

1 UNESCAP UNHABITAT National Capacity Building Workshop on Sustainable and Inclusive Transport Development 3 4 July 2014, Vientiane, Lao PDR Abhijit Lokre Associate Professor Centre of Excellence in Urban Transport CEPT University Emerging Technologies Content Urban Transport and Environment Vehicle Technology and Market Scenario Vehicle Technology Choice Fuel Energy Content Comparative Statement Fuel Technology Cost Factor Diesel vs CNG Challenges with Adopting Technologies Summary 1

2 Urban Transport and Environment Air pollution is a major environmental health problem affecting people worldwide Traffic is predominant source of air pollution Cities manage environment regulations by planning, policies and vehicle technologies To regulate CO2 emissions and local pollution, alternate vehicle technology is key. Vehicle Technology and Market Scenario Market Availability Wide range of alternative fuels & technologies are available in market Fuel technology for Buses Standard Diesel Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Biofuel (bio methane/bio diesel), Electricity Hydrogen Fuel Cell Engine Technology Internal Combustion Engine (various EURO stages) Hybrid 2

3 Vehicle Technology and Market Scenario Market Development Diesel has established market in bus vehicle Needs to compete with other fuel alternatives innovated R&D on engine / propulsion technology with lower emissions CNG over past few decades has established its market Initial infrastructure for refueling & maintenance was created Some safety concerns are on potential fire risk exists with CNG Hybrid vehicle are growing in market in Mexico and Brazil Vehicle Technology Choice Factors influencing fuel and vehicle technology type choice Policy support, Tax incentives, Funding Life Cycle Cost Availability of fuel and refueling infrastructure Maintenance facilities Infrastructure and technical expertise Scope of replacement Priority to air pollution or green house emissions 3

4 Emission Type Local Pollutant GHG pollutant Regulating Regions CO Y US, Europe, Brazil, India, Mexico CO 2 Y Y US NOx Y Y US, Europe, Brazil, India, Mexico Total HC Europe, Brazil, India Non Methane HC Y US, Mexico PM Y US, Europe, Brazil, India, Mexico CH 4 Y Europe SO 2 Y US, Europe, Brazil, India, Mexico Paper: Exhaust emission of Transit Bus Embarq Emission norm followed in various region Country 2012 ppm Future Target Location Brazil Major cities Metro Area Nationwide Mexico Metro Area Nationwide India 50 Major cities 350 Metro Area 500 Nationwide US 15 Nationwide Europe 10 Nationwide Brazil 2013 & UNEP 2012a, 2012b, 2012c Eq. CO2 and CO Emission during life cycle cost of std diesel and CNG buses. Most CO 2 emissions (GHG) are related to vehicle operation while CO emission is result of material production in life cycle cost. CNG produces more CO in operations CNG and Diesel Transit Bus Emissions in Review by California Environmental Protection Agency; Air Resource Board 4

5 Eq. NOx and SOx Emission during life cycle cost of std diesel and CNG heavy vehicle. Diesel produces NOx more than CNG during vehicle operation while higher HC and methane emission is produced in CNG CNG and Diesel Transit Bus Emissions in Review by California Environmental Protection Agency; Air resource Board Eq. PM Emission during life cycle cost of std diesel and CNG heavy vehicle. PM content are most emitted in vehicle assembly and material production PM emission is high for diesel but with new technologies it is regulated than CNG. CNG and Diesel Transit Bus Emissions in Review by California Environmental Protection Agency; Air resource Board 5

6 PM emission vs GHG emission Diesel technologies are available with lower GHG emission than CNG and comparable PM emission Paper: Exhaust emission of Transit Bus Embarq PM emission vs NOx emission Bio diesel benefits over PM as well as NOx over standard diesel technologies whereas CNG better NOx emission Paper: Exhaust emission of Transit Bus Embarq 6

7 Regulation norms have been developed for diesel engine technology Local pollutant regulations are existing two decades. Remarkable research in reducing pollutants seen in past decade Regulations of GHG emission are recent considerations Emission norms for bus Stage Year CO HC NOx PM g/kwh Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Source: Lindqvist Fuel Energy Content Diesel remains as most preferred fuel by urban local authorities / operators as it has high energy density; i.e. more mileage. Bio diesel also has high energy content Energy content in fuel Fuel Type Energy Fuel efficiency content Diesel 128, mile/dge 130,000 BTU Bio diesel 117, mile/dge 120,000 BTU CNG 33, mile/dge 44,000 BTU LNG 73,500 BTU 2.7 mile/dge Hydrogen 6,500 16,000 BTU Source: Department of Energy 2012 & TCRP 2011 BTU British Thermal Unit; DGE Diesel Gallon Equivalant 2.7 mile/dge 7

8 Comparative Statement Fuel Technology Comparison of Fuel Technology 1 Diesel CNG Bio methane / Bio diesel / FAME Biogas Non renewable Non renewable Renewable fuel Renewable fuel Established market & relevant infrastructure Established market & relevant infrastructure Fuel price depends on production cycle and supply chain Production volume is relatively smaller to input Technology similar to CNG; makeover in market easier Fuel price depends on production cycle and supply chain Extract from Clean Buses Experiences with Fuel and Technology Options: by clean fleets 2014 Comparative Statement Fuel Technology Comparison of Fuel Technology 1 Diesel CNG Bio methane / Biogas Major saving in PM and NOx emission compared to diesel Higher green house emission Safety concern with on board fuel Significant savings on CO 2 emissions PM emission are negligible 30 80% reduction in NOx compared to diesel Safety concern with on board fuel Bio diesel / FAME Significant savings on CO 2 emissions Significant savings on PM10 emissions PM2.5 & NOx emission are higher Extract from Clean Buses Experiences with Fuel and Technology Options: by clean fleets

9 Comparative Statement Fuel Technology Comparison of Fuel Technology 2 Diesel electric hybrid Emission can reduce to 30% of traditional diesel Cost of acquiring technology is 50% more than standard diesel bus Plug in electric hybrid Electric bus Hydrogen fuel cell Significant savings on CO2 emissions Flexibility to operate in EV mode in environment sensitive areas Relatively immature technology with limited experience Zero emission Minimum noise pollution Relatively immature technology with high cost Significant savings on CO2 emissions zero tailpipe emission Relatively immature technology; used only on trial Extract from Clean Buses Experiences with Fuel and Technology Options: by clean fleets 2014 Comparative Statement Fuel Technology Comparison of Fuel Technology 2 Diesel electric hybrid Diesel is nonrenewable Dependent on electric motor use, topography, congestion, vehicle load and driving Plug in electric hybrid Electric bus Hydrogen fuel cell Lower energy consumption compared to diesel electric bus Emission depend on origin of electricity Need for recharging can limit flexibility Safety concern on hydrogen as fuel Extract from Clean Buses Experiences with Fuel and Technology Options: by clean fleets

10 Cost Factor Fuel Economy In the 2006 New York transit study regular diesel buses averaged 2.33 miles per gallon while the hybrid buses averaged 3.44miles per gallon for a 35% increase in fuel economy. CNG has low mileage (1.7 miles per gallon) compared to alternate fuels. Only marginal cost difference in fuel consumption (CNG is cheaper) NREL Technical Report: NREL/TP , Jan 2006 Cost Factor Diesel vs CNG Life Cycle Cost Clean Diesel Cost Factor Capital: Bus purchase Regular fuel station installation Operations: Fuel cost (+ $0.04/mile) Annual maintenance Regular replacement of plugged units ( % per year) Compared to std diesel, clean diesel costs more CNG Cost Factor Capital: Bus purchase, CNG tanks and piping High pressure compressor Depot safety modifications Operations: Fuel cost (+ $0.11/mile) Cost of compression and lower fuel economy Annual maintenance (+ $0.20/mile) Engine: lower reliability Fuel station maintenance Compared to std diesel, CNG costs more DEER Conference 2003: Comparison of clean diesel buses to CNG buses by New York city transit department of buses 10

11 Challenges with Adopting Technologies Challenges with demand and supply: Fuels in demand are non renewable Availability of fuel type is under regulation Balance in demand and supply Challenges to convert existing technologies: Changes / replacement in technologies under dynamic regulation norms before completion of life cycle of vehicle Operation & maintenance: availability of technical expertise Challenges to create / recreate infrastructure: Creating infrastructure for fueling Investment in bus industry Financial implications SUMMARY No single fuel is best in all parameters of emissions All technologies require exhaust after treatment CNG has inherent emission advantage Competition in fuel alternate increase R&D for lower emissions New technologies in diesel has reduced emissions; minimizing the gap with CNG New technology in diesel increases cost but still lower than CNG Emission depend on engine technology in regulation 11

12 SUMMARY Propulsion Technology to be regulated Enforcement to regulation Sharing of technological research on global welfare Fuel alternate should not be imposed rather flexibility should be allowed It encouraged R&D in technology Achieve balance in fuel demand & supply Allow fuel price elasticity (avoiding fuel monopoly) Control on non renewable fuel resources... Thank You 12