Status of Motor Vehicle Environmental Regulations in Asia M. P. Walsh July 22, 2004 Jakarta, Indonesia

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1 Status of Motor Vehicle Environmental Regulations in M. P. Walsh July 22, 24 Jakarta, Indonesia ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY APPROPRIATE MAINTENANCE CLEAN VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY CLEAN FUELS TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING Light Duty Vehicle Emissions Standards International Emission Regulations: - Heavy-duty vehicles (GVW>3.5t) - Nitrogen oxides (NOx) Particulate matter (PM) (g/kwh) (g/kwh) 8 E.U..3 7 Japan.25 6 U.S Japan Limits Limits E.U U.S Year Year 1 12 Low-sulfur diesel needed to meet 25 regulations

2 GEORGIA TURKEY IRAQ SYRIA JORDAN RUSSIA KAZAKHASTAN MONGOLIA NORTH KOREA UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN JAPAN AZERBAIJAN TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN SOUTH CHINA KOREA AFGHANISTAN IRAN NEPAL PAKISTAN BHUTAN BANGLADESH TAIWAN INDIA BURMA LAOS OMAN THAILAND VIETNAM PHILIPPINES CAMBODIA YEMEN SAUDI ARABIA SRI LANKA MALAYSIA INDONESIA PAPUA NEW GUINEA Lead Free Gasoline Worldwide 24 Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading Lead Free Leaded PPM US US 26 EU 2 EU 25 EU 25-9 Denmark Sweden Class 1 Germany 23 Japan Japan 24 Japan 25-7 Hong Kong South Korea 26 Taipei, 27 Australia 26 Thailand 21 Close Linkage Between Vehicle Emissions Standards and Fuel Sulfur Levels EPA g/bhp-hr EPA 98 NOx = 4. P =.1 EURO g/kw-hr 15 months Caterpillar, Consent Cummins, Detroit Diesel, Decree Volvo, 1/2 Mack Trucks/Renault Navistar EURO III NOx = 5. P =.1 EPA 4 NOx = 2.5 P =.1 Combined EURO III-IV Diesel 15 ppm EPA 7 NOx =.25 P =.1 EURO IV NOx = 3.5 P =.2 Diesel 5/1 ppm 1/5 1/8 EURO V NOx=2. P=.2 New Vehicle Sales 28.4% 71.6% Could Surpass Europe by 21

3 ÜRÜMQI HARBIN SHENYANG BEIJING TIANJIN LANZHOU XI AN WUHAN LHASA CHENGDU GUANGZHOU SHANGHAI New Vehicle Sales Cars, Trucks & Buses 9.6% 9.4% 57.% Motorcycles & Scooters 43.% Chinese Vehicle Population Has Been Exploding (million) Total Vehicle Private Vehicle Rate 11.6% Rate 23.% Plus Approximately 5 Million Motorcycles And Over 2 Million Agricultural Vehicles Growth in Annual Vehicle Production Has Been Even Faster (million) Total Cars Rate 16.7% Rate 31.8% By The End of 23, Has Become The 4 th Largest Producer In The World Control Measures on Motor Vehicle Pollution Emission Standards For New Vehicles Time Before Category PC ECE 153 EURO I EURO II LDV& LDT ECE 153 EURO I EURO II HDDV None EURO I EURO II Motorcycle ECE R 4 EURO I EURO II Beijing, Shanghai already Introduced Euro 2 in 23

4 What s s In Play in Potential Impact of MMT Nationally-SEPA Mobile Sources Developing 11 th Five Year Plan Document Will Put Strongest Environmental Case Together For Euro4 Stds & Fuels Looking to adopt Euro 3 nationally in 27, Euro 4 in 21 Beijing EPB Pushing For Euro 3 Gasoline, Euro 4 Diesel & Cleaner Fuels in 25 Interested in Accelerating Euro 4 before Olympics MMT Concern Shanghai EPB Also Interested in Leapfrogging to Euro 4 MMT Becoming Serious Concern India Canada Expert Panel Under Royal Society Soon Most Oil Companies Suspending Use EU Accession Members Forcing Issue Will Likely Set Up Testing Protocol US Health Studies Underway EPA Being Very Cautious CARB Ban in Effect HEI Health Effects Study A Red Flag India New Vehicle Sales Cars, Trucks & Buses Motorcycles & Scooters India India 2.2% 16.9% 83.1% 97.8%

5 New Vehicle Standards in India Entire Country Euro 2 April 25 Euro 3 April 21 Major Cities Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Already Euro 2 Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehicles Euro 3 From April 25 Euro 4 From April 21 India Diesel Fuels Road Map 25 National Metros Current South Korea Vehicle Standards Gasoline Vehicles ULEV by 26 Diesel Vehicles Euro 4 by 26 5% Tighter by 21 Fuels Diesel S from 43 to 3 by 26 Gasoline S from 13 to 5 by 26 Clean Vehicle Incentives (5-75% Lower) Mandatory For Public Agencies Economic Incentives For Others Taiwan Starting January 24, EU Diesel Car Standards Will Be Deemed Equivalent To Taiwan Light Duty Standards On January 27, US 24 HD & US Tier 2 Light Duty Standards Apply; EU Heavy Duty Standards Deemed Equivalent Gasoline S From 18 to 5 & Diesel S from 35 to 5 From January 1, 27

6 Emission standards for new vehicles (light duty) Country European Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 1 Union Bangladesh Euro 2 (under discussion) Hong Kong, Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 India a Euro 1 Euro 2 E3 India b Euro 3 E1 Euro 2 Indonesia Euro 2 Malaysia Euro 2 Euro 1 Nepal Euro 1 Philippines Euro 1 PRC a Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 PRC c Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Singapore Euro 2 e Euro 1 Singapore g Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 Sri Lanka Euro 1 Taipei, US Tier 1 US Tier 2 for diesel d Thailand Euro4 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Viet Nam e Euro 1 Viet Nam f Euro 1 a Entire country b Delhi and other cities; Euro 2 introduced in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in 21; Euro 2 in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Khampur, Pune and Ahmedabad in 23, Euro 3 to be introduced in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad in 25 c Beijing and Shanghai d Gasoline vehicles under consideration e for gasoline vehicles f for diesel vehicles g for all types of diesel vehicles Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel (Gasoline) Percent Increase Compared to 15 PPM Sulfur 6% 67% 5 ppm 8 ppm 5% 7% 4% 33% 3% 74% 3% 2% 26% 1% % CO/1 HC NOx Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel (Diesel) Percent Increase Compared to 15 PPM Sulfur 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 94% 35 ppm 5 ppm 45% 33% 16% 5% % HC NOx PM Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards