Government and Governance

Transcription

1 255 Government and Governance The global crisis has increased fiscal deficits in most economies and reduced tax revenues, but government expenditures on education and on social security and welfare have been sustained in most cases. As a measure of the ease of doing business, days taken to register a new business have been falling in most economies but still range from 1 to 100 days. The Asia and Pacific region is perceived as having some of the least corrupt and some of the most corrupt economies in the world; unfortunately, perceived corruption is getting worse in most economies. Introduction Governments affect the daily life of people in several ways, notably through their powers to tax and spend. This theme provides the standard indicators of the impact of government on economic and social life such as fiscal balances; tax revenues; and government spending on health, education, and social security and welfare. In addition, governments can promote economic growth by creating a level playing field for business. They can make it easier to set up a new company by simplifying administrative procedures. They can actively fight bribery, corruption, and other disincentives to business investment. These aspects of governance are highlighted in the following tables based on statistics on the costs and time needed to set up a new business. A corruption perceptions index is also included to present a picture of the ranking of certain economies in terms of perceived corruption among public officials and politicians. Key Trends Fiscal deficits rose in 2009 as governments fought the global crisis. Figure 7.1 shows fiscal deficits the excess of current expenditures over government revenue and current grants received. The current crisis could be expected to increase fiscal deficits because governments cannot easily reduce expenditures in line with their lower receipts and because many of them deliberately allowed deficits to rise to combat the crisis. By maintaining, or increasing their expenditures, governments have been compensating for the shortfall in consumer expenditure and business investment. The bars to the right in Figure 7.1 show fiscal deficits in 2009 and are mostly longer than those in Most economies that had fiscal surpluses in 2008, shown by bars on the left of the axis, have now moved into deficit or have reduced their surplus. PRC, India, and Indonesia all reported rising deficits, while increases of 3 percentage points or more were recorded by several economies including Australia, Georgia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. However, 10 economies shown in Figure 7.1 either reduced their deficits or increased their surpluses. Hong Kong, China Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Azerbaijan Timor-Leste Kyrgyz Republic Korea, Rep. of Nepal China, People's Rep. of Indonesia Australia Cook Islands Kazakhstan Bangladesh Lao PDR Philippines Samoa Thailand Armenia Pakistan Mongolia India Maldives Malaysia Tajikistan Georgia Viet Nam Sri Lanka Palau Source: Table 7.1. Figure 7.1 Fiscal Deficits as a Percentage of GDP, Bhutan Tonga 2008 and

2 256 These were mostly small economies but also included Bangladesh; Hong Kong, China; and Pakistan. Tax revenues as shares of GDP fell in 2009 as a result of the crisis. Figure 7.2 shows government tax revenue as a percentage of GDP. This is usually referred to as the tax burden. Taxes include taxes on products such as valueadded tax, sales taxes, import duties, income taxes, profit taxes, property taxes, capital gains taxes, and compulsory social security charges. In 2009, tax revenues were lower than in 2008 in all but seven of the 31 economies shown in Figure 7.2, with falls of 3 percentage points or more recorded by Kazakhstan, Maldives, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, and Viet Nam. The increases reported by the seven economies were all quite small except for Nepal where revenues rose by 1.4 percentage points. Although tax burdens in the region have been rising gradually for some years, the simple average of three precrisis years was just under 17%. This is Solomon Islands Mongolia Cook Islands Georgia Papua New Guinea Samoa Australia Viet Nam Tonga Armenia Kyrgyz Republic China, People's Rep. of Tajikistan Palau Malaysia Korea, Rep. of Azerbaijan Maldives Thailand Kazakhstan Lao PDR Sri Lanka Philippines Hong Kong, China Nepal Indonesia Bhutan Pakistan Bangladesh Timor-Leste India Figure 7.2 Tax Revenue as a Percentage of GDP, 2008 and low by comparison with the developed economies of Europe and America. The average tax burden for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies is now over 35%, with a few countries exceeding 45%. High tax burdens may be seen as an impediment to economic growth as they discourage entrepreneurship and risk taking. However, Table 7.2 shows that some economies in the region with higher per capita income have tax burdens that are both relatively high (Australia, Brunei Darussalam, and New Zealand) and relatively low (Hong Kong, China; Japan; Singapore; and Taipei,China). Rather than looking at tax burdens in isolation it makes more sense to consider what services governments provide from their tax revenues and how efficiently they do it. Government education expenditures are yet to manifest effects of the global crisis in most economies. Figure 7.3 shows government outlays on education as percentages of GDP for economies with available data. The data refer to total outlays, including investment, as well as current expenditures, and are confined to central government except Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan. Maldives Timor-Leste Malaysia Kyrgyz Republic Bhutan Samoa Tajikistan Cook Islands Thailand Korea, Rep. of Nepal Hong Kong, China Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Philippines Sri Lanka Australia Source: Table 7.5. Figure 7.3 Government Expenditure on Education as a Percentage of GDP, 2008 and Source: Table

3 257 In most economies shown in Figure 7.3, the bars showing the percentage of government expenditure on education in 2009 are longer than those in 2008, with rises of 1 percentage point or more in Malaysia, Maldives, Tajikistan, and Timor-Leste. Education expenditures as a percentage of GDP fell in five economies but these were very small except in the case of Samoa and Hong Kong, China. Government expenditures on welfare and social security rose in response to the economic crisis. The expenditures shown in Figure 7.4 consist of disbursements under social security schemes and assistance grants to persons in need for 17 economies in the region. As unemployment rose because of the crisis, unemployment benefits and other payments to families in hardship increased in all economies for which data are available. As social safety nets are relatively underdeveloped in the Asia and Pacific region, the increases were generally quite small except in Armenia, Australia, and Maldives where they were just over 1 percentage point. For comparison, the average for 30 economies of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development is currently around 20% of GDP, and includes high percentages such as France and Sweden (29%) and Germany (27%). Encouraging investors: a mixed record but getting better. Table 7.8 shows that the costs and time taken to Figure 7.4 Government Expenditure on Social Security and Welfare as a Percentage of GDP, 2008 and 2009 Australia Armenia Korea, Rep. of Maldives Tajikistan Azerbaijan Kyrgyz Republic Georgia Hong Kong, China Sri Lanka Thailand Bhutan Cambodia Nepal Philippines Malaysia Samoa register a new business vary enormously within the region. In 2009, the days needed for registration ranged from 1 in New Zealand, 2 in Australia, and 3 in Georgia and Singapore; to 83 in Timor-Leste, 85 in Cambodia, 100 in Lao PDR, and 116 days in Brunei Darussalam. Lengthy registration procedures are a disincentive, and also provide opportunities for extorting bribes. Figure 7.5 shows how the number of days needed to register a new business has changed since In Palau it took 4 days longer in 2009 than in 2005 but in all other economies there have either been reductions, some quite Figure 7.5 Number of Days Required to Register a Business, Lao PDR Indonesia Azerbaijan Timor-Leste Cambodia India Tajikistan Bhutan Philippines Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Viet Nam Bangladesh Sri Lanka China, People's Rep. of Taipei,China Fiji Islands Vanuatu Samoa Thailand Tonga Nepal Japan Malaysia Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Palau Pakistan Kiribati Kyrgyz Republic Georgia Armenia Marshall Islands Korea, Rep. of Micronesia, Fed. States of Mongolia New Zealand Hong Kong, China Maldives Afghanistan Singapore Australia 2005 and Source: Table Source: Table

4 258 large, or at least no increase. The biggest reductions were achieved by economies that had very lengthy registration procedures in 2005, for example, India (41 days less), Indonesia (91 days less), and Lao PDR (95 days less). Azerbaijan achieved a particularly striking reduction from 113 days in 2005 to 10 in The Asia and Pacific region includes some very clean and some very corrupt economies; unfortunately, most are getting worse. Figure 7.6 shows corruption scores for 32 economies that have been assigned by a private research institute, Transparency International. Corruption is assessed by a panel of business people and others whom Transparency International considers to have special knowledge of each economy. Corruption refers basically to persons in positions of power using their authority to extort unauthorized payments. Respondents were asked to rate each economy on a scale of 0 (most corrupt) to 10 (least corrupt). It is evident that there is a strong subjective element in the assessments of perceived corruption and small differences between economies or over time are not significant. Eleven economies improved their scores between 2005 and 2009 while 21 had lower marks (more corrupt). The improving economies included the five most populous ones. Bangladesh made the most progress with an increase of 0.7 point, followed by Indonesia (0.6), India (0.5), PRC (0.4), and Pakistan (0.3). Among economies with worsening scores, Lao PDR fell by 1.3 points, Afghanistan by 1.2, Malaysia by 0.6, and Uzbekistan by 0.5. The rankings for 2009 in Table 7.9 place New Zealand first out of 180 economies; Singapore, third; and Australia, eighth. At the other end of the scale Afghanistan was ranked 179th; Myanmar, 178th; Uzbekistan, 174th; and Turkmenistan, 168th. Figure 7.6 Corruption Perceptions Index, 2005 and 2009 New Zealand Singapore Australia Hong Kong, China Japan Taipei,China Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Georgia China, People's Rep. of Thailand India Sri Lanka Indonesia Viet Nam Mongolia Kazakhstan Armenia Philippines Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Azerbaijan Papua New Guinea Tajikistan Lao PDR Cambodia Kyrgyz Republic Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Myanmar Afghanistan Source: Table 7.9. Data Issues and Comparability Data on government expenditures and revenue are mostly taken from country sources. The coverage of the budget data is not standard throughout the region. Data provided by many economies refer only to the central government, but cover provincial and local governments in other economies. Most economies try to follow the International Monetary Fund s Statistics guidelines; some economies are still using the 1986 version; others have switched to the 2001 Statistics guidelines. The statistics on the time and cost for registering new businesses and on perceived corruption are all taken from nonofficial sources. Common procedures are used in all economies and the researchers producing these data have refined their procedures over several successive surveys. However, because of the subjective nature of many of these data, they can only be used to give a broad idea of trends, levels, and rankings.

5 259 Table 7.1 Fiscal balance a Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam b Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste c Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Data refer to central government, except for Bangladesh, People s Republic of China, Georgia, Kiribati, Kyrgyz Republic, Federated States of Micronesia, Pakistan, and Tajikistan, where data refer to consolidated government or general government. b Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. c GDP estimates beginning 2002 exclude value added of activities of the United Nations.

6 260 Table 7.2 Tax revenue a Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam b Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Data refer to central government, except for Bangladesh, People s Republic of China, Georgia, Kiribati, Kyrgyz Republic, Federated States of Micronesia, Pakistan, and Tajikistan, where data refer to consolidated government or general government. b Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country.

7 261 Table 7.3 Total government revenue a Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam b Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Data refer to central government, except for Bangladesh, People s Republic of China, Georgia, Kiribati, Kyrgyz Republic, Federated States of Micronesia, Pakistan, and Tajikistan, where data refer to consolidated government or general government. b Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country.

8 262 Table 7.4 Total government expenditure a Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam b Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste c Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Data refer to central government, except for Bangladesh, People s Republic of China, Georgia, Kiribati, Kyrgyz Republic, Federated States of Micronesia, Pakistan, and Tajikistan, where data refer to consolidated government or general government. b Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. c GDP estimates beginning 2002 exclude value added of activities of the United Nations.

9 263 Table 7.5 Government expenditure on education a Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of b Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam c Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Data refer to central government, except for People s Republic of China, Georgia, Japan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, where data refer to consolidated government or general government. b Includes health. c Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country.

10 264 Table 7.6 Government expenditure on health a Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of b Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam c Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Data refer to central government, except for People s Republic of China, Georgia, Japan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, where data refer to consolidated government or general government. b Included in education expenditure category. c Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country.

11 265 Table 7.7 Government expenditure on social security and welfare a Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan b Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam c Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Data refer to central government, except for People s Republic of China, Georgia, Japan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, where data refer to consolidated government or general government. b From 2000 onward, includes defense. c Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country.

12 266 Governance Table 7.8 Doing business start-up indicators Cost of Business Start-Up Procedure Time Required to Start Up Business (percent of GNI per capita) (days) Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. Source: Doing Business Online (World Bank 2010).

13 267 Table 7.9 Corruption perceptions index a Governance Rank in 2008 b Rank in 2009 b Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam c Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands 4.0 Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Score relates to perceptions of the degree of corruption as seen by business people and country analysts, and ranges from 10 (highly clean) to 0 (highly corrupt). b Based on 180 countries. c Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. Source: Transparency International (2010).