Global Outlook for Vehicle In Use Emissions. Berlin, October 16, 2000

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1 Global Outlook for Vehicle In Use Emissions Berlin, October 16, 2000

2 Overview Serious Air Pollution Problems Remain In Use Emissions Are What Counts Progress Being Made Worldwide Significant Challenges Remain

3 US National Air Quality Improvements in Past Decade Percent Change in Air Quality Concentrations 10% 0% -10% -20% -10% -4% -18% -30% -40% -36% -36% -50% -60% -70% CO -60% Nitrogen Dioxide Lead Ozone (1 Hr) PM10 Sulfur Dioxide

4 PM10 Study in Europe (Lancet Medical Journal - September 2, 2000) ~6% of all deaths from PM10 ~40,000 deaths per year in Austria, France, Switzerland; 2 times traffic fatalities Motor Vehicles responsible for ~50% People in Cities die about 18 months earlier than they would otherwise over 300,000 cases of chronic bronchitis; 500,000 asthma attacks; 16 million lost person days of activity Health costs from pollution from traffic ~1.7% of total GDP

5 Average Los Angeles Basin Cancer Risk Apportionment Approximate Risk = 1414 per Million Carbonyl 3.0% Benzene 7.0% Other 11.0% 1,3 Butadiene 8.0% Diesel PM 71.0%

6 Suspended Particulate Matter Air Quality Trends In Japan mg/m3 0.2 General Stations Roadside Stations

7 Nitrogen Dioxide Air Quality Trends In Japan PPM General Stations Roadside Stations

8 Serious Ozone Air Pollution Problems Remain in the US ~62 (1-hr) to 125 (8-hr) Million People Lived in Non-Attainment Areas in 1999 EPA's Forecast For Ozone Non-Attainment Areas 80 Marginal Areas 129 Million People Living in These Areas

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12 Many Factors Influence Vehicle Emissions Driving Characteristics Meteorological Conditions Amount of Driving Vehicle Technology Vehicle Emissions Vehicle Type Fuel Quality Fuel Type Maintenance

13 ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY CLEAN VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY APPROPRIATE MAINTENANCE TRAFFIC & DEMAND MANAGEMENT CLEAN FUELS

14 Global Trend in Light Duty NOx Control Grams/km Petrol Diesel Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 ULEV2 SULEV Euro 3 Japan 2000 Euro 4

15 Global Trend in Heavy Duty Vehicle Emissions PM (G/kW-hr) US US Proposal US Buses EU Japan

16 Diesel Fuel Sulfur Specifications PPM US National EU 2005 Sweden Class 1 EU 2000 Danish City Bus Japan UK US Proposal Germany (2003) HK Tax Incentive

17 Standards Only Part of the Story More Comprehensive Test Conditions Expanded Durability Requirements Greater Compliance Assurance In Use Compliance Testing Defect Identification & Repair (OBD) In Use Measurement Not To Exceed OBM

18 Standards Only Part of the Story (continued) Proper Maintenance and Use Periodic Inspection Random Roadside Screening Remote Screening (?)

19 Number of Vehicles Recalled Light Duty Vehicles & Trucks Millions 6 5 Average - 2 Million Recalled Per Year 4 3 Ordered & Influenced Voluntary

20 Difference Between Laboratory & On Road Settings & NOx Emissions NOx Emissions g/bhp-hr Average Timing BTDC NOx Avg. Timing FTP - Freeway Portion On Road On Road On Road -5-10

21 Vehicle Testing Programs Type Approval Expensive, Comprehensive Periodic, Relatively Simple Different Purposes MVIS Roadside Inspection

22 Manufacturer Directed Test Procedures (Type Approval) Purposes: To assure emissions controls work under a range of normal driving conditions To assure design is properly mass produced (CoP) To assure system is durable Miles/Hour FTP US Time (seconds)

23 Exhaust emission measurement THC CH 4 NOx Co Co 2 THC hot

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25 Consumer Directed (In Use) Tests Purpose: To Assure that vehicle is properly maintained and used General Attributes: Relatively short Relatively simple Test Types Idle (1 or 2 stage) Steady Speed Loaded Transient Loaded Free Acceleration (Smoke) Centralized Vs. Decentralized

26 Typical System with VMAS VMAS Serial Communications Host System with BAR97 analyzer Blower Exhaust Flow Raw Exhaust Sample to raw Gas Analyzer Engine RPM Exhaust Flow + Ambient air = Dilute Exhaust Flow Ambient Air Dynamometer

27 Results of the British Columbia I/M Program Audit NOx (g/km) Before Repair After Repair 0 Pre Post 1987

28 The Special Problem of Particulate New Vehicle Standards Focus on Mass Most In Use Programs Focus on Smoke Growing Concerns Number of Very Small Particles Toxicity Questions Linkage Mass to Number to Toxicity? Linkage Smoke to Number to Toxicity?

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30 Vehicles Are A Major Source Of Ultrafine Particles

31 Impact of A Particulate Trap On Particles of Differing Sizes Percent Removed 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 10% Load 25% Load 50% Load 100% Load Particle Diameter (nm) Source: S491/006/98, IMechE, London, December 1998

32 Impact of Particle Filters on Diesel Particulate Toxicity 120% 100% DPF -A DPF-B 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Napthalene Fluorene 2-Methylnapthalene Benzo(a)anthracene Chrysene Pyrene Benzo(e)pyrene Average - 18 Cmpds Source: MECA

33 Comparison of Carcinogenic Potential of Diesel Versus Otto - Passenger Car Exhaust Ratio Diesel vs. Otto Euro III Euro IV Euro IV with Particle Filter Source: Dr. Axel Friedrich from FhG-ITA, 1998

34 Comparison of Carcinogenic Potential of Diesel Versus CNG - Bus Engine Exhaust Ratio Diesel vs. Otto Euro III Euro IV Euro IV with Particle Filter 3.8 Source: Dr. Axel Friedrich from FhG-ITA, 1998

35 Problem: Mass - Smoke - Toxicity - Number? Solution - Set Standards Requiring PM Filters No Smoke Very Low Mass Very Low Toxicity Very Low Number of Ultrafines Retrofit Existing Vehicles As Necessary In Use Testing To Assure Filters Are Working OBD/OBM

36 Conclusions Great Progress Has Occurred But Serious Problems Remain IUCP Necessary to Reduce Defects & Prevent Cheating IUCP Must Be Comprehensive & Creative Expanded Test Procedures Expanded Testing Tools (e.g. ROVER, etc.) Greater Reliance on OBD/OBM Broad NTE Provisions

37 Conclusions (continued) I/M Programs Still Needed To Supplement IUCP Centralized Seems Best Better Tests at Lower Cost Emerging One Size Doesn't Fit All Increased Use of OBD PM Studies Should Continue But Greater Reliance on Filters Needed Now

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