Motor Vehicle Pollution Control History, Status, Challenges & Opportunities

Transcription

1 Motor Vehicle Pollution Control History, Status, Challenges & Opportunities March 25 M.P. Walsh Outline Historical Overview: Evolution of the Clean Air Act Current Status Health Effects Regulatory Requirements Looking Ahead Challenges Opportunities 2 Key Messages Government Regulation Has & Will Continue To Drive The Global Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Market Health Impacts Are The Principle Drivers of Government Regulations Environmental Damage Also Important (e.g. German Black Forest, Swedish Lakes) Climate Issues Increasingly Important Vehicle and Fuels Technologies Have Consistently Risen To The Challenges Contained in the Regulations Great Progress Has Occurred and The Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Market is Large and Mature The Job is Far From Done, However, Especially In Developing Countries Global Trends In Motor Vehicle (Cars, Trucks & Buses)Production Millions R-square =.951 # pts = 53 y = -1.8e e+5x

2 The Global Market For New Motorcycles and Mopeds World Motor Vehicle Population Middle East.4% Latin America 3.5% Europe 7.9% Total: North America 3.1% Oceania.3% Africa.4% Millions Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars Asia 84.4% 2 Source: Honda Facts & Figures One Result: Serious Health Concerns WHO Concludes ~ 8, Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; Most in Asia Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. No Evidence of a Threshold PAPA Project Indicates Similar Effects in Asia Ozone, NO 2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns 7 8

3 Los Angeles 1955: The Start of the Story Air Not Breathable and no solutions. The 195 s s and 196 s Initial Studies Carried Out What Is Smog? What Causes It? (Dr. Haagen Smit HC, NOx, Sunlight) What is the Role of Motor Vehicles? What Can Be Done About It? 9 1 The 195 s s and 196 s s (cont d) 1959: California MVPCB adopted Vehicle Exhaust Standards Only When two Devices Were Certified Were They to Be Required On New Vehicles One Year After Certification 196: Crankcase Emissions Standards Adopted By CA Sept 1961, First Crankcase Device Certified (by GM) and GM Voluntarily installs on all 1961 CA Cars; other manufacturers followed 1963 Crankcase Controls installed on all new cars Nationwide June 1964, CA Approved 4 Exhaust Devices Meeting Standards (three catalysts and one direct flame afterburner) Triggering Mandatory Installation by 1966 August 1964, Auto Makers announced They Had Better Engine Modifications That Would Be Ready for 1966 Model Introduction Other States PA & New York Began to Consider Vehicle Standards 1965: Congress Passes Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Act First Exhaust Standards Introduced in CA in 1966 and Nationally in 1968 Engine Modifications Had Poor In Use Performance NOx Levels Increased The 195 s s and 196 s s (cont d) 1967: CARB Created 1967: Federal Air Quality Act of 1967 Amendment Submitted by Congressman Charles Dingle Deleting CA Authority Passed House Committee Deleted On House Floor Senator Muskie Emerges As Leader 1969: Justice Department Investigation of Auto Industry Anti Trust Conspiracy Results in Consent Decree 11 12

4 197 The Watershed Year US EPA Created by President Nixon Major Air Pollution Episode Across Eastern US Collegiate Car Race Focused Attention on Alternatives to the ICE Landmark 197 Amendments To Clean Air Act Adopted 197 Clean Air Act Amendments Highlights Health Based Air Quality Standards Technology Forcing Emissions Standards Effectively Required Catalytic Converters by 1975 Began Leaded Gasoline Phase Out Linking Vehicles & Fuels Allowed Citizen Suits Gave EPA Broad Authority and Responsibility Clearly Defined Roles of National/State Governments Timelines Mandated for NAAQS Attainment with More Actions Required Of Those Needing Longer Time Subsequent CAA Amendments 1977 Amendments Added Section 177 Which Allows Other States To Adopt CA Standards Added Focus on Heavy Duty Vehicles More Focus on Fuels and Additives Made I/M Programs Mandatory 199 Amendments Mandated Tier 1 and Provided For Tier 2 Requirements Added Focus on Non Road Engines/Vehicles Rejected Alternative Fuels or Engines Mandates Required Reformulated Gasoline Rejected Efforts (by Congressman John Dingle )To Remove CA Authority or eliminate Section 177 HEALTH & ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 15

5 What pollutants are of concern? Greenhouse Gases - CO2, methane Haze Particles (PM1/PM2.5) (NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia) Carbon monoxide (CO) Ozone (ROG + NOx) Toxics - Diesel particles -Benzene - Chromium - Asbestos Health Impacts of Air Pollution Premature Deaths Cancer Developmental Effects Hospitalization Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis Ozone Health Effects Causes inflammation in respiratory tract Reduces ability to breathe (lung function) for some people Increases hospitalization for asthma, other lung diseases Effects have been demonstrated for short term, long term effects have been less certain LA Children s Health Study recently found structural lung damage with lifetime impairment PM Health Effects High levels of PM (e.g. 5 µ/m 3 ) known to cause premature death for many years e.g. London 1952 Recent studies in US, Europe, Asia, South America have found association of PM with premature death at much lower levels no evidence of a threshold (safe level) 19 2

6 PM - The Epidemiology Studies A Number of Epidemiology Studies PM 1 Study in Europe (Lancet Medical Journal September 2, 2) ~6% of all deaths from PM 1 ~4, deaths per year in Austria, France, Switzerland; 2 times traffic fatalities Motor Vehicles Responsible For ~5% People in Cities Die ~18Months Earlier Than They Otherwise Would Over 3, cases of chronic bronchitis; 5, asthma attacks; 16 million lost person days of activity Health Costs From Traffic Pollution ~1.7% of total GDP Europe Studies Harvard 6 Cities Study % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Increased Risk of Premature Mortality Due To 1µg/m 3 PM PM 2.5 All Causes Pulmonary Lung Cancer Initial Results: Asian Risk Estimates Similar to West Percent Increase in Mortality per 1 micrograms of Exposure Percent.4 Increase US(9 Cities) Eur(21 Cities) Asia (4 Cities) Journal of American Medical Association, March

7 Dutch Study Links Proximity To Truck Traffic With Lung Function in Children 2,1 Lung Function in liter 2,4 1,98 1,92 FEV1 1, Truck Traffic Density Cancer Studies in Railroad Workers HEI,1995 Relative Cancer Risks in Los Angeles Diesel PM 1,3-Butadiene Butadiene Benzene Benzene Chrome Chrome VI Carbon Carbon Tetrachloride Tetrachloride Formaldehyde Formaldehyde para para-dichlorobenzene Dichlorobenzene All Others Others Acetaldehyde Acetaldehyde Perchloroethylene Perchloroethylene 27 Based on ARB monitoring data

8 Total Particle Counts / cc ARB In-Vehicle Study Real-Time Fine Particle Counts (L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open) 14 HDD Delivery Van Diesel Charter Bus Time (12 minutes) Outside Vehicle 1 Inside Vehicle 1 29 Increasing Concerns About Ultrafine Particles Normalized Concentration, dc/c total/dlogdp.2 1 Nanoparticles Fine.18 Dp < 5 nm Particles.9 Ultrafine Particles.16.8 Dp < 1 nm PM1 Dp < 1 µm Fractional deposition of particle.6 with density of 1 g/um Nuclei Accumulation Coarse Mode.2 Mode Mode Diameter (µm) Mass Weighting Number Weighting Alveolar Deposition Fraction Alveolar Deposition Fraction Comparison of Particle Emissions from SMPS.7: All Vehicles and Fuels - 5kph 1.E+13 Conventional Diesels United States 1.E+12 A PM Solution Exists! log scale [Particles/km] 1.E+11 1.E+1 1.E+9 1.E+8 Conventional Diesel Direct Injection Gasoline G-DI Gasoline and LPG MPI and LPG Gasoline United States US and Canada New Vehicle Sales US & Canada 25.2% 1.E+7 Trap Equipped Diesels 1.E Electrical Mobility Diameter/nm ROW 74.8% 31

9 Key Motor Vehicle Regulations In California Catalytic Converters and Unleaded Fuel Required use of TWC and computer-based emission control On-Board Diagnostics II Low Emission Vehicle I + Phase I Gasoline Roadside Truck Inspections Phase II Gasoline Gasoline Trucks Diesel Trucks Low Emission Vehicle II On-Road Motorcycles Urban Transit Buses Diesel Trucks Diesel Trucks New Car Emissions Standards in the US 15% 1% 5% % Pre- Control HC CO NOx HC ppm Air Quality Trends in California ( 1-hour 1 Peak Indicator ).5 Ozone Nitrogen Dioxide California PM1 Air Quality Trend ( Maximum Annual Average of Quarters ) µ g / m

10 Over 9% of Californians Breathe Unhealthy Air at Times Days Over Applicable State Standard, 1999 Monitoring Data Serious Air Quality Problems Persist Nationally Ozone PM1-5 Days 6-5 Days 5-1 Days >1 Days (g/mile) California s Goal: Zero Emissions NOx HC Phase 2 LEV I Phase 3 LEV II US Tier 2 Standards Also Approaching Zero NOx Standards (grams/mile) Cars/LDT1/2 LDT3/4 Combined Model Year 4

11 EPA Clean Fuel & Vehicle Programs 1999 Tier 2 Standards Gasoline sulfur control (3 ppm average) Stringent light-duty vehicle standards Same standards for light trucks and cars Same standards for gasoline and diesel (PM filters for diesels) 2 Heavy-Duty 27 Standards Diesel sulfur control (15 ppm maximum) Stringent heavy-duty gasoline & diesel vehicle standards PM filter forcing standards, NOx catalysts based standards 24 Nonroad Tier 4 Standards Diesel sulfur control (2 steps - 5 ppm in 28, 15 ppm in 211) Stringent emission standards, based on on-highway standards Ongoing - Diesel Retrofit Ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel enables diesel PM retrofits Realize substantial Air Quality and Health Benefits earlier In Process Locomotive and Marine Diesel Standards Marine diesel sulfur control (15 ppm maximum) already done in Nonroad Benefit from same technologies as on-highway and nonroad Proposed rulemaking in 25 ATA OK for 27 (21?) Subsidies Pipeline Concerns New CAA? 41 Clean Fuel and Vehicle Programs PM (tons) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Diesel PM Reductions baseline absent new standards Nonroad On-Highway Calendar Year Locomotive and Marine? 42 Clean Fuel and Vehicle Programs NOx Reductions Costs & Benefits of Clean Fuels and Vehicles Tier 2 Light-duty highway cost benefit Total Cost: $11 billion Total Benefits: $175 billion NOx Tons (millions) 12 baseline absent new standards ? 2 Gasoline Highway Locomotive and Marine Diesel Nonroad Diesel Highway Calendar Year 43 Heavy-duty highway Tier 4 nonroad $ Billion Annually in 23 44

12 ICELAND IRELAND PORTUGAL UNITED KINGDOM SPAIN BELGIUM FRANCE MONACO ANDORRA DENMARK NORWAY NETHERLANDS GERMANY LUXEMBOURG SWITZERLAND ITALY AUSTRIA SWEDEN POLAND CZECH REPUBLIC HUNGARY SLOVENIA CROATIA MALTA SLOVAKIA BOSNIA ALBANIA SERBIA ROMANIA GREECE BULGARIA MACEDONIA FINLAND Current Issues & Future Challenges in CA Reducing greenhouse gas emissions Phase-in % less CO 2eq For cars ~ equal to EU voluntary standards Compliance using existing technologies Combustion, transmission Hybrid models expanding, significant demand Diesel: Could meet LEV II by ~28 Legal challenge Opposition from US EPA possible - waiver NAS study -- challenge to CA authority to regulate 45.3 Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog Europe.25 Ozone (ppm) California Ozone Standard hlos Angeles Ozone Levels ( ) h1 warmest years of the last century all occurred within the last 15 years. European New Vehicle Sales Europe 32.% ROW 68.% Source: Air Resources Board, 2 Temperature ( o F) Source: California Environmental Protection Agency

13 Emissions From Gasoline Cars In Europe % reduction Gasoline Car and Fuel Regulations Converging Worldwide 1 Euro I 5 ppm 8 6 Euro II Euro III Euro IV 5 ppm 15 ppm 5 ppm 4 Euro IV/V 1 ppm 2 CO NOx Japan Japan 5/7 1 ppm 1 ppm HC+NOx CA SULEV/Tier 2 3 ppm Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV 49 5 Production of Diesel Passenger Cars Exceeded 5% Western Europe In Oct 4 Mio Vehicles 8 Diesel-share in overall passenger car production in % Direct Injection Indirect Injection 9% 5% 1% % Diesel Share [%] % Emissions From Diesel Cars In Europe % reduction Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV PM HC+NOx 52

14 % reduction Heavy-duty Vehicles Emission Reduction In Europe On ETC Test Cycle PM NOx Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V CAFÉ (Clean Air For Europe) Programme Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution to be presented in May 25 Expected to include: Review of air quality standards, focus PM and Ozone EU 5 emission standards for light duty vehicles and Euro 6 for HDV (expected alongside strategy and late 25 respectively) focus on diesel emissions, standards which will require full PM traps, NOx controls Fiscal support for pseudo Euro 5 (.5 g/km) in many EU Member States starting January 25 Clean Diesels already hitting the market NO x emissions projected for 21 compared to NEC emission ceilings 175% 15% NO x emissions With climate measures scenario, EU-25 1% Off-road Off-road 125% 1% 75% Diesel heavy duty veh. Diesel heavy duty veh. 75% Diesel cars Diesel cars 5% 5% Gasoline cars Gasoline cars Domestic 25% % Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden UK With climate measures National energy projections Total EU-15 Cyprus Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Slovakia No further climate measures NEC emission ceiling Slovenia Total NMS 25% % Domestic Industrial processes Industrial processes Industrial combustion Industrial combustion Power generation Power generation 2 22

15 Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year] 5 Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions With climate measures scenario, EU-15 1% Agriculture Agriculture Off-road Off-road 4 75% Non-exhaust Diesel exhaust, HDT Non-exhaust Diesel exhaust, cars 3 Diesel exhaust, cars 2 1 5% Domestic, wood stoves Domestic, wood stoves 25% Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden UK Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia % Industrial processes Industrial processes Industrial combustion Industrial combustion 2 22 Provisional calculations with 5*5 km resolution Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2 & 23 meteorologies Political Orientation Last Decade Commission Proposes, Parliament Tightens Current Environment Commissioner Seems Less Knowledgeable/Committed Than Wallstrom Enterprise Commissioner Pushing Competitiveness Agenda In Parliament, Absence of MEP Lange a big loss 6

16 Yamagata Sendai Fukushima Niigata Koriyama Toyama Tochigi Kanazawa Nagano Ibaragi Fukui Maebashi Urawa Hachioji Tokyo Tottori Matsue Gifu Yokohama Chiba Kyoto Shiga Fukuyama Okayama Nagoya Shizuoka Kobe Yokkaichi Hiroshima Osaka Okazaki Tsu Kitakyushu Yamaguchi Nara Takamatsu Wakayama Fukuoka Matsuyama Tokushima Saga Kochi Nagasaki Oita Kumamoto Miyazaki OKINAWA-KEN NANSEI ISLANDS Kagoshima Aomori Akita Iwate Sapporo GEORGIA TURKEY IRAQ SYRIA JORDAN RUSSIA KAZAKHASTAN MONGOLIA NORTH KOREA UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN JAPAN AZERBAIJAN TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN SOUTH CHINA KOREA AFGHANISTAN IRAN NEPAL PAKISTAN BHUTAN BANGLADESH TAIWAN INDIA BURMA LAOS OMAN THAILAND VIETNAM PHILIPPINES CAMBODIA YEMEN SAUDI ARABIA SRI LANKA MALAYSIA INDONESIA PAPUA NEW GUINEA Conclusions for EU Asia LD Euro 5 proposal due mid-25, HD Euro 6 in autumn 25; The priority issues are further NOx and particulate mass reductions and controls on ultra-fine particles; Euro 5 likely to focus on PM; less on NOx Review of fuel quality also being addressed (except sulphur). 61 Asia Asia New Vehicle Sales Asia 28.4% ROW 71.6% Asia Could Surpass Europe by 21 Japan New Standards For Japanese Vehicles (October 25) Japan Japan New Vehicle Sales Japan 1.7% ROW 89.3% NOx g/km EIW<1,25kg EIW>1,25kg Diesels GVW<1,75kg ,75kg<GVW<3,5kg ,5kg<GVW.27 Gasoline Cars Gasoline LDVs Gasoline G/kW-hr GVW<1,75kg 1,75kg<GVW<3,5kg.7 3,5kg<GVW PM g/km NOx PM Japan Adopted The Muskie Standards After A Visit by the Senator in early 197 s

17 1.2% Diesel Fuel.5%.2% Gasoline 1 ppm 5 ppm 1 ppm> 5 ppm 5 ppm 1 ppm> Desulfurizing Fuels in Japan 65 Tax Incentives for Low Emission Vehicles and High Fuel Economy Vehicles (24-25) 25) Fuel economy Emissions+ Vehicles: achieving fuel economy standard in 21 Vehicles: 5% higher fuel economy than the standard in 21 : 5% lower emission vehicles No incentives *25% annual tax reduction *2, yen purchase tax deduction : 75% lower emission vehicles *25% annual tax reduction *2, yen purchase tax deduction *5% annual tax reduction *3, yen purchase tax deduction +: compared to the new long-term standard in Proposed Limit Value of Diesel-powered Vehicles (29~)(Draft) PM NOx NMHC CO Achievement Timing Passenger car.5.8( 43% ) % % % Truck Light-weight.5.8( 43% ) s (GVW1.7t or less) 62% % % Middle-weight.7.15( 4% ) ~ 2.5t (GVW over 1.7t ~ 53% % % t or less) 2.5 ~ 3.5t 29 Heavy-weight.1 (next target) ~ 12t ( GVW over 3.5t) 63%.7( 41% ) % % 21 (challenge target) over 12t about 1/3 of.7 29 ( 88%) 1. Unit: Heavy-weight :g/kwh Except Heavy-weight :g/km 2. Lower column means ratio of reduction from the new long-term standards (enforce by 25). 3. GVW: Gross weight Vehicle NMHC : Non-methane hydrocarbons Proposed Limit Value of Gasoline- powered Vehicles (29) (Draft) Passenger car PM NOx NMHC CO.5 Achivement periods Light-weight.5 (GVW1.7t or less) N.C. 29 Middle-weight.7 (GVW over 1.7t ~ 3.5t or less) Heavy-weight.1 ( GVW over 3.5t) 1 Unit: Heavy-weight :g/kwh Except Heavy-weight :g/km 2 GVW: Gross weight Vehicle NMHC: Non-methane hydrocarbons t r u c k s note) Target values of particulate matter are applied only to lean-burn, direct-injection vehicles mounted with storing-type NOx reduction catalyst.

18 Anticipated Diesel Emission Reduction Technologies in Japan Improvement of combustion chamber and air-intake system Improvement of fuel injection system Cooled EGR Turbo Charger HCCI(Homogeneous Charge? Compression Ignition) NOx sensor Urea sensor or? Exhaust After-treatment Device Oxidation Catalyst Passive type Diesel Particulate Filter(DPF) Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) NOx Adsorber Note) :Prevailed :Limited use :Not Possible PM)g/kWh) Comparison of Future Emission Standards on HD vehicles Around JAPAN US 3.2 EU 3.5 PM)g/kWh) NOx(g/kWh) (Challenge target) About 1/3 of.7 US (21~).27 Around JAPAN (Draft) 1.6 EU(28~) US(27~) 2. NOx(g/kWh) 7 Next exhaust emission standards* for special vehicles recommended in the 6th report * Parenthetic numbers are current standards applied from 23. Diesel Gasoline Rated power 19kW 37kW 37kW 56kW 56kW 75kW 75kW 13kW 13kW 56kW 19kW 56kW NOx 6. (8.) 4. (7.) 3.6 (6.) 3.6 (6.).6 (-) HC 1. (1.5).7 (1.3).4 (1.).4 (1.).6 (-) CO 5. (5.) 5. (5.) 5. (5.) 3.5 (3.5) 2 (-) PM.4 (.8).3 (.4).25 (.4).2 (.3).17 (.2) - Start * unit : g/kwh 71 Outline of new legislation framework (on the table) Category Examples Stationary Other Mobile Non-road vehicles Source Crawler Power plant, Push mower, Backhoe, etc. etc. Gen-set, etc. Legislation Air pollution control law N.A. N.A. On-road vehicles Wheeled Car, bus, truck, etc. Forklifts, etc. Air pollution control law & Road vehicle act Scope : Non-road special vehicles Act (under discussion at National Diet) * Other Mobile Source : future task? Emission standards : The same as On-road Special Vehicles * Test methods : The same as On-road Special Vehicles Enforcement : 26 72

19 6th report of CEC recommended about future prospect of non-road emission standards after 26. Problem Could Get Worse Due To High Growth Especially In Asia Regulation for special diesel motor vehicles will be greatly strengthened in about 21, premised on the use of aftertreatment devices such as DPF. Regulatory details will be the subject of future studies. Studies must also be conducted on the introduction of new exhaust emission testing methods that are designed to evaluate after-treatment device. Discussions will start within the next year. 73 and even more significant freight transport growth: 2,4 % /year 74 Developing Countries Which Have Adopted US Or EU Standards For New Vehicles China China New Vehicle Sales Population Vehicle Population HARBIN Not Adopted 35.% Not Adopted 29.% ÜRÜMQI SHENYANG BEIJING TIANJIN Cars, Trucks & Buses China 9.4% Motorcycles & Scooters Adopted 65.% Adopted 71.% LANZHOU XI AN SHANGHAI WUHAN LHASA CHENGDU ROW 57.% China 43.% Four Challenges: Eliminate The Yellow Colored Areas Narrow the Technology/Fuel Quality Gap in Blue Areas Continue To Push the Technology Envelope By Tighter Standards No Backsliding! GUANGZHOU ROW 9.6%

20 Chinese Vehicle Population Has Been Exploding (million) Total Vehicle Private Vehicle Annual Growth Rate 11.6% Annual Growth Rate 23.% Plus Approximately 5 Million Motorcycles And Over 2 Million Agricultural Vehicles Growth in Annual Vehicle Production Has Been Even Faster (million) Total Cars Annual Growth Rate 16.7% Annual Growth Rate 31.8% By The End of 23, China Has Become The 4 th Largest Producer In The World 78 1 Most Vehicles Are in Cities Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, E:\Changhong CHEN\ 对外合作 \ 能源基金会 \ 交通项目 \ 基础数据 \ 机动车统计报表.xls 8

21 Vehicle Growth in Beijing is Exploding Pollution Shifting From Coal Based To Vehicle Based 机动车保有量 ( 万辆 ) 北京机动车增长情况 1st 1M for 48 years 2nd 1M for 6 years 3rd 1M for only 3 years? Beijing November 24 Shanghai November 年份 Source: He Kebin 82 Control Measures on Motor Vehicle Pollution Emission Standards For New Vehicles Time Before Category PC ECE 153 EURO I EURO II LDV& LDT ECE 153 EURO I EURO II HDDV None EURO I EURO II Motorcycle ECE R 4 EURO I EURO II Beijing, Shanghai already Introduced Euro 2 in China Fuel Consumption Standards MT Cars Fuel Consumption ÓͺÄ(L/1km) (L/1km) 16 第一阶 Phase I段限值第二阶 Phase II 段限值 14 一般 Existing M1 类车 Models 整备 Curb 质量 Mass ((Kg) kg) Phase I will be effective in July 25 Phase II will be effective in July 28 84

22 What s s In Play in China Stationary NOx Control Nationally-SEPA Mobile Sources Developing 11 th Five Year Plan Document Will Put Strongest Environmental Case Together For Euro4 Stds & Fuels Euro 3 in 27, Euro 4 in 21 likely April? Trying to Get Sulfur Issue to State Council Soon Possible Fuels Workshop in July? Beijing EPB Pushing For Euro 3 Gasoline, Euro 4 Diesel in 25/6 Cleaner Fuels Adopted For July 1, 25 Interested in Accelerating Euro 4 MMT Concern Shanghai EPB Also Interested in Leapfrogging to Euro 4 Very Weak Standards At Present Growing Awareness At SEPA & Some Local EPB s Ozone Acid Rain PM Professor Hao Preparing A Report Need Cost & Feasibility Bring Report To Gov t Officials More NOx From China Than From US & EU Combined India New Vehicle Standards in India India New Vehicle Sales Cars, Trucks & Buses Motorcycles & Scooters India India 2.2% 16.9% ROW ROW 83.1% 97.8% Entire Country Euro 2 April 25 Euro 3 April 21 Major Cities Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Already Euro 2 Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehicles Euro 3 From April 25 Euro 4 From April 21 Through CSE (and ARAI), pushing to accelerate Time Schedule 88

23 25 National Metros India Diesel Fuels Road Map Current Some parts of Country will not meet 25 schedule; Largest Reliance Refinery Now Making 1 PPM Exhaust Emission Standards in Korea Gasoline Passenger Car - LEV of LEV-1 standard was applied in Jan ULEV of LEV-2 standard (of CARB) will be applied from 26.1 with a phase-in of 25/5/75/1%. Diesel HDV - EURO-3 standard was applied in 22.7/ EURO-4 standard will be applied from 26.1/ ESC/ETC test mode will be adopted. Diesel Passenger Car - EURO-3 will be applied from 25.1, but half of the cars will have to install DPF. - EURO-4 will start from 26. Diesel LDT - EURO-3 was applied in 22.7/ EURO-4 will be applied from 26.1/ DPF Promotion Program in Korea 3 step program is progressing for the 2 nd stage DPF retrofit promotion 1 st step : DPF evaluation program was being performed from Dec. of Examine the level of DPF technology and evaluate the applicable potential to Korean vehicles. - 6 systems were evaluated, which using Catalyst, Fuel additive, Electric heater, and Plasma technology. 2 nd step : Demonstration program started from beginning of Evaluate the real operation condition of DPF and DOC by the fleet operation of several hundred vehicles (52 DPFs and 198 DOCs). - The demonstration DPF systems selected by the results of DPF evaluation program and certification test. 3 rd step : Main retrofit program will start from , of DPFs and 579, of DOCs are expected to be retrofitted during main retrofit program. In this year (25) 15,861 DPFs and 13,541 DOCs are scheduled to be retrofitted. Management system after retrofitted is important consideration. 91 Taiwan New Vehicle Emissions Standards Vehicles Standards Effective date Gasoline cars Diesel cars Motorcycles STAGE Ⅲ 1/1/1999 STAGE Ⅳ 1/1/28 STAGE Ⅲ 1/7/1999 STAGE Ⅳ 1/1/27 STAGE Ⅳ 1/1/24 STAGE Ⅴ 1/7/27 Tier 2, bin 5 Possible E5 In 21 Euro 3 1. The emission standards of gasoline cars and diesel cars: present-usa standard, STAGEⅣ- EURO Ⅳ. 2. After enter the WTO, the emission standard of motorcycle will take the EURO standard or USA standard.

24 Fuel The composition and performance standards in fuel (1) The composition and performance standards in gasoline and diesel for vehicles took into forces in 2. (2) Gradually lower the sulfur content in diesel from 5, ppmw in 1989 to 5 ppmw in 25. Fuel Items Benzene (vol%), max Sulfur (ppmw), max 18 5 RVP (psi), max Oxygen (wt%), max gasoline VOCs+NOx(mg/km), max 17 - diesel TOXICs(mg/km), max 48 - Aromatics (vol%), max - 36 Alkene (vol%), max - 18 Sulfur (ppmw), max 35 5 Cetane Index, min 48 - Aromatics (vol%), max - 35 Brazil New Vehicle Sales Brazil New Vehicle Sales ROW 96.6% Brazil 3.4% 93 Brazil Passenger Cars & Light Commercial Vehicles US EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997 Tier 1 Phased in (4/7/1%) FedLev in 29 No Diesel Cars Allowed Heavy Duty Trucks & Buses Euro 3 Phased in Euro 4 in 29 Fuels Diesel Fuel S in City from 2 to 5 in 25 & to 5 in 29; on rural areas from 35 to 2 in 25 & to 5 in 29 Gasoline S from 1 to 4 in 24 & to 8 in 28 State of Sao Paulo Gearing Up To Push Sulfur Issue Mexico New Vehicle Sales Mexico New Vehicle Sales ROW 98.% Mexico 2.% 95

25 WESTERN SAHARA MAURITANIA MOROCCO ALGERIA MALI TUNISIA NIGER SENEGAL THE GAMBIA BURKINA GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA TOGO NIGERIA SIERRA-LEONE COTE BENIN D'IVOIRE LIBERIA GHANA CAMEROON EQUATORIAL GUINEA GABON ANGOLA LIBYA CONGO CHAD CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ANGOLA NAMIBIA BOTSWANA SOUTH AFRICA EGYPT ZAMBIA SUDAN ZIMBABWE TANZANIA ERITREA ETHIOPIA UGANDA KENYA RWANDA ZAIRE BURUNDI LESOTHO MOZAMBIQUE SWAZILAND MALAWI DJIBOUTI SOMALIA MADAGASCAR Mobile Sources Program In Mexico Tighten emission limits for new gasoline and diesel vehicles. Gasoline: Tier I first introduced in 1999 (US-EPA-94). Tier II to be introduced in 26, under discussion. Diesel: EPA-98 currently in place. Standards for new diesel vehicles under discussion. Key Issue Is Fuel Quality Sulfur EPA Retrofit Initiative Positive Actions Are Spreading Around The World Lead Free Gasoline Worldwide 24 Lead Free Leaded Africa Gasoline Car and Fuel Regulations Converging Worldwide 5% of Gasoline Now Lead Free Most Countries Committed by 25/6 Sulfur Discussion Beginning MMT Substitute? Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro IV/V 5 ppm 5 ppm 15 ppm 5 ppm 1 ppm Japan 1 ppm Japan 5/7 1 ppm CA SULEV/Tier 2 3 ppm 1

26 The Three-way Catalytic Converter Is Going On Over 9% Of All New Gasoline Cars Produced This Year Worldwide Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability Integrated HC adsorption functions Mounting materials with improved durability High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates Insulation schemes for heat management 11 Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading PPM US 26 EU 25 EU 25-9 Denmark Sweden Class 1 Germany 23 Japan 24 Japan 25 Hong Kong South Korea 26 Taiwan 25 Australia 26 Thailand 21 Santiago, Chile 24 Singapore Emission Standards For HD vehicles Also Converging Around 29-1 Around 25 Global Distribution of Emissions Controls Gasoline Cars () PM)g/kWh).13 US PM)g/kWh) 6 5 Euro5/LEV2 Euro4/LEV Euro3/Tier 1 TWC Engine Modifications No Controls JAPAN EU EU(28~) US (21~) US(27~) JAPAN (Draft) Thousands NOx(g/kWh) (Challenge target) About 1/3 of NOx(g/kWh)

27 Global Distribution of Emissions Controls Light Duty Gasoline Trucks () Global Distribution of Emissions Controls Diesel Cars () 25 2 Euro5/LEV2 Euro4/LEV Euro3/Tier 1 TWC Engine Modifications No Controls 15 Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 3 Euro 2 Euro 1 No Controls Thousands 15 1 Thousands , Global Distribution of Emissions Controls Light Duty Diesel Trucks () Global Distribution of Emissions Controls Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks () Thousands Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 3 Euro 2 Euro 1 No Controls Thousands US 1/Euro 6 US 7/Euro 5 US 4/Euro 4 US98/Euro 3 US94/Euro 2 US 91/Euro 1 Engine Modifications No Controls 2,

28 Millions Global Distribution of Emissions Controls Motorcycles Advanced Catalysts Catalysts Advanced Engine Mods Engine Mods No Controls Conclusions Vehicle Standards Increasingly Linked To Fuel Quality Standards in US/EU/Japan Converging but Differing Technology Options May Emerge EU Diesel Standards Will Still Likely Lag After Euro 5 and Euro 6 Major Challenges in Developing Countries Narrowing Gap For Industrializing Countries Getting Progress With The Laggards Fuel Economy/Climate Issues Getting Greater Attention in Europe & Japan Than in US (Except for CA) But Much More Needs To Be Done 11