Overview of Global Fuel Economy Policies

Transcription

1 Overview of Global Fuel Economy Policies Zifei Yang Researcher 2018 APCAP Joint Forum and Clean Air Week Theme: Solutions Landscape for Clean Air Bangkok, Mar 20, 2018

2 What is ICCT? ICCT is an independent non-profit research organization that provides technical support on transport efficiency and emission policies in major auto markets 2

3 Outline Motivation of fuel efficiency policies Fuel efficiency standards Fuel efficiency fiscal measurement Fuel efficiency labeling Summary 3

4 1 Background and motivation of fuel efficiency policies 4

5 Vehicles make up more than 20% of greenhouse gas emissions GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS 38 GtCO 2 TRANSPORT EMISSIONS 8.8 GtCO 2 ROAD TRANSPORT EMISSIONS 6.5 GtCO 2 4.6% 10.6% Other 77% Transport 23% 73.9% 46.5% 53.5% 10.9% LEGEND RAIL AVIATION ROAD MARINE HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES Notes: Global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions in 2010 based on IPCC (2014). Transport CO 2 emissions in 2010 estimated by ICCT (2014) include the full fuel lifecycle, including direct emissions from combustion & upstream emissions from extraction, refining, & distribution of fuels. Sources: 5

6 Robust vehicle sales growth in ASEAN countries 4,000,000 Vehicle sales per year 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 OTHERS SINGAPORE VIETNAM PHILIPPINES MALAYSIA THAILAND 1,000, ,000 INDONESIA Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia are among the top vehicle markets in the world. 6

7 Integrated Vehicle Efficiency Policy Portfolio VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY STANDARDS FISCAL MEASURES MARKET-BASED APPROACHES Introduce and regularly strengthen mandatory standards Establish and harmonize testing procedures for fuel efficiency measurement. Fuel taxes and vehicle taxes to encourage the purchase of more fuel-efficient vehicles. Infrastructure support and incentive schemes for very fuel-efficient vehicles. Voluntary programs such as U.S. SmartWay and other green freight programs INFORMATION MEASURES Vehicle fuel economy labels Improving vehicle operational efficiency through eco-driving and other measures. 7

8 Performance standards, economic signals, and technological innovation complement each other. VEHICLE PERFORMANCE STANDARDS encourage AUTOMOAKERS to build efficient products Reduce cost VEHICLE AND FUEL FEES AND INCENTIVES encourage CONSUMERS to demand efficient products and drive less TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION AND DEPLOYMENT Slide 8

9 2 Fuel efficiency standards 9

10 The importance of mandatory standards CO 2 performance standards in the European Union New passenger cars CO 2 [in g/km] % % EU-27 new passenger cars CO 2 [in g/km] % target: 130 g/km (ca. 5.1 l/100km) % 1.1% % % % 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% % 5.1% 3.7% 3.7% Data sources: ACEA data for EU-15; EU CO 2 monitoring data ( EU-15, EU-25, EU-27). Note that changes in the number of member states (from 15 to 27) have only minor effects on the overall emission level (about 0.5 g CO 2/km) as passenger car sales numbers in the new member states are relatively low % % % % % % 2020 target: 95 g/km (ca. 3.7 l/100km) Annual 4.0% reduction rate 2.0% 0.0% 10

11 Comparison of the adopted standards for efficiency in selected regions New light-duty vehicles New heavy-duty vehicles Region Percent of global LDV sales, 2014 Baseline Model Year Implementation Period Reduction in average CO 2 rate (grams/vehicle-km) Percent of global HDV sales, 2014 Baseline Model Year Implementation Period China 27% % 31% % EU + EFTA 20% % US 17% % 11% % Japan 6% % 5% % Brazil 4% % India 3% % Canada 2% % 1% % South Korea 2% % Mexico 1% % Saudi Arabia 1% % Reduction in average CO 2 rate (grams/vehicle-km) 11

12 Historical fleet CO 2 emissions performance and current standards (gco 2 /km normalized to NEDC) for passenger cars 12

13 Cost-effectiveness analyses of light- and heavy-duty fuel economy and CO 2 standards 13

14 Flexibility system of compliance with standards Corporate average target Except LCV standards in China Credit banking and trading 3-5 years carry forward, 0-3 years carry backward Off-cycle credits Not all off-cycle credits are properly designed Super credits To promote electric and alternative fuel vehicles, with multipliers of 1 to 5 14

15 Effects of off-cycle credits and efficient vehicle credits on CO 2 targets 160 CO 2 emission target under NEDC (g/km) Target with max. off-cycle credits Original target Target with max. off-cycle and efficient vehicle credits 60 US 2025 Canada 2025 EU 2021 Korea 2020 India 2022 China 2020 Japan 2020 Brazil 2017 Saudi Arabia 2020 Mexico

16 Real world emissions are an issue that needs to be addressed 60% Japan: mode Divergence between official and real-world CO 2 emission values 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% U.S.: introduction of Japan: JC08 phase-in 5-cycle method Japan: JC08 EU: NEDC U.S.: CAFE (for U.S. regulations) China: NEDC U.S.: EPA label values (for U.S. consumers) 10% Build year / Model year / Fleet year / Test year 16

17 3 Fuel efficiency fiscal policies 17

18 Fiscal measures to improve fuel efficiency Fiscal policy type Characteristics Vehicle tax/fee based on CO 2 Paid at time of purchase or annually Subsidy for efficient vehicles One-time Feebate Fuel taxes/co 2 taxes Infrastructure support A mix of tax and incentives Paid upon refueling; set by fuel type; Road pricing, VMT taxes, charging stations, discounted electricity 18

19 Vehicle tax is a common measure in Europe 33 European countries CO 2 emissions One-time tax Annual tax Engine features Vehicle features Registration tax (one-time payable) Price Fuel CO 2 emissions Engine features Vehicle features Motor vehicle tax (regularly payable in defined time intervals) Price Fuel Emissions Engine characteristics Vehicle characteristics Price Fuel Emissions Engine characteristics Vehicle characteristics Price Fuel Austria CO 2 emissions Engine power Belgium CO 2 emissions, Euro standards Cylinder capacity Age Fuel type CO 2 emissions Fuel type Bulgaria Engine power Age Croatia CO 2 emissions Price Fuel type Engine power Age Cyprus CO 2 emissions Cylinder capacity CO 2 emissions Czech Republic Euro standards Fuel type Engine capacity Denmark Equipment Price Fuel type Fuel consumption Weight Fuel type Estonia Finland CO 2 emissions Price CO 2 emissions France CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions Germany CO 2 emissions Cylinder capacity Fuel type Greece CO 2 emissions Price CO 2 emissions Engine capacity Hungary Euro standards Engine capacity Age Fuel type Engine capacity Age Iceland CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions Ireland CO 2 emissions Price CO 2 emissions Italy Engine power Euro standards Engine power Latvia CO 2 emissions Engine capacity Liechtenstein Weight Lithuania Luxembourg CO 2 emissions Fuel type Malta CO 2 emissions Length Price Fuel type CO 2 emissions Age Fuel type Netherlands CO 2 emissions, fuel consumption Fuel type CO 2 emissions Weight Fuel type Norway CO 2 emissions, NOx emissions Weight Fuel type Poland Engine capacity Price Portugal CO 2 emissions Cylinder capacity Fuel type CO 2 emissions Cylinder capacity Fuel type Romania Engine capacity Slovakia Engine power Age Cylinder capacity Age Slovenia CO 2 emissions Price Fuel type Cylinder capacity Spain CO 2 emissions Engine power Sweden CO 2 emissions Weight Fuel type Cylinder capacity, Switzerland Price Weight enigne power Turkey Engine power Price Engine capacity Age United CO 2 emissions Fuel type CO 2 emissions Engine capacity Price Fuel type Kingdom 19 Number of countries

20 CO 2 -based fee, rebate, or feebate program Feebates = fee + rebate Higher efficiency vehicles receive rebates Lower efficiency vehicles pay fees Fee 0 (Pivot point) Rebate CO 2 emission 20

21 Canadian fiscal system that did not work well Rebate $1,000 Toyota Yaris 6.4 l/100km Sales +49% Honda Fit 6.6 l/100km Sales +3% $0 Fee 6.5 Fuel Consumption liters/100 km Canada discontinued rebates early ran out of money because too many vehicles were shifted to < 6.4 l/100km

22 The design of the rebate influences how manufacturers response Tax-optimized vehicles Link to the report: Optimizing to the last digit: how taxes influence vehicle CO2 emission level 22

23 Gradually optimized system 23

24 High incentive level leads to high sales necessary but not sufficient! ct.org/drivingelectrificationglobalcomparisonfiscal-policyelectricvehicles 24

25 Emerging electric vehicle capitals 25

26 4 Fuel efficiency labeling 26

27 Vehicle fuel economy labeling schemes VFEL schemes include The fuel economy label referring information that is displayed about the car in the showroom, online or through other media Associated consumer information campaign 27

28 Vehicle fuel economy labeling (VFEL) makes an impact Raise consumer awareness Enable other policies Fuel economy standards Fiscal incentive Influence consumer purchase decision Influence manufacture technology investment strategy Promote vehicle fuel economy 28

29 Implementation of vehicle fuel economy labeling scheme MANDATE VOLUNTARY Japan China Market size covered by program US South Korea Canada Australia Germany New Zealand India Chile Vietnam Thailand UK Austria Netherlands Chinese Taipei Singapore Saudi Arabia Brazil 29

30 Six key elements for VFEL programs Management Empower agencies Reflect other FE policies Periodic Regulatory framework Ensure label credibility Monitor compliance Performance assessment Program design VFEL Compliance and enforcement Label design and information Consumer outreach Consumer 30

31 Conclusions Fuel economy standards are one of the most cost effective and politically attractive carbon mitigation measures Emerging markets are considering adopting fiscal measures such as feebates (which are easier to development and implement), especially in the context of promoting EVs Fuel efficiency labeling is widely spread in many markets Nations may want to consider regional collaborations to develop and implement policy actions across a wider market. 31

32 How are we doing against GFEI target to double fuel economy for new passenger vehicles by 2030? lifecycle CO 2 emissions! [billion metric tons per year]! 7.0! 6.0! 5.0! 4.0! 6.1! 4.7! 3.9! 35! 30! 25! 20! fuel consumption! [million barrels of oil per day]! 3.0! 3.2! 15! 2.0! 1.0! Business as usual! Adopted! GFEI Target! 10! 5! 0.0! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025! 2030! Estimated using ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap model (Facanha, et al., 2012). Business as usual = vehicle efficiency remains at 2005 levels. Adopted = currently adopted policies. GFEI Target = countries adopt standards that reduce average fuel consumption of new vehicles to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 (GFEI, 2014). 0! 32

33 A ~70 g/km (NEDC) target by 2025 can be achieved cheaper if transitioning to electric vehicles earlier CO 2 target Total cost (2014 ) Electric vehicles (NEDC) market share 80 g/km 300-1, , % 70 g/km 650-1, , % 60 g/km 1,000-2, , % 50 g/km 1,300-2,950 1,000-2, % 40 g/km 1,650-3,500 1,250-2, % 33 Source: