Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Thursday, 26 January 2012 Bahana Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief SPOTLIGHT For details please refer to our separate report(s) Borneo Lumbung - Lingering negative sentiment (BORN-HOLD-IDR860-TP:IDR870) Finalization of USD1b acquisition of Bumi Plc: A bad deal Low coking coal demand; Most sensitive to IDR depreciation Production growth remains solid; Fairly valued; HOLD TODAY S NEWS ECONOMICS IMF & World Bank: Capital inflows to emerging markets to decline INDUSTRY LPS to differentiate guaranteed insurance premium fee based on banks risks Mitsubishi to build new plant; Mazda eyes 33% sales increase Deposits above IDR5b continue to rise in 2011 CORPORATE EXCL aims 6%-8% growth in 2012 ANTM books 20% revenue growth in 2011 Government asks ADHI to cancel rights issue plan Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate to IPO in April 2012 Bank Mutiara s shares to be offered in February-March 2012 ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 11F 12F 13F 11F 12F 13F Cur acc bal (%GDP) Op.prof.grwt.(%) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.1) (1.5) (1.0) EPS growth (%) GDP growth (%y-y) P/E (x) Inflation (%y-y) PEG (x) IDR/USD 9,100 8,800 8,750 EV/EBITDA (x) BI rate (% p.a.) P/BV (x) M2 growth (%) Div. yield (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates IDX: 3,963.6 (-0.8%) Turnover: IDR2.4t (+5.2%) Foreign net sell: IDR310b (Net buy: 107b) INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 20, (15.8) IDX (Indonesia) 3,963.6 (0.8) KLCI (Malaysia) 1,519.8 (0.2) (0.7) (1.8) KOSPI (Korea) 1, (5.7) Nikkei (Japan) 8, (15.1) PCOMP (Phil.) 4,670.5 (0.9) SENSEX (India) 17, (9.8) SET (Thailand) 1,059.6 (0.3) SHCOMP (China) 2, (14.6) Shenzhen (China) (0.6) (26.9) STI (Singapore) 2, (9.4) TWSE (Taiwan) 7, (20.4) VNI (Vietnam) (0.1) 6.1 (28.2) Europe, USA and SA CAC 40 (France) 3,312.5 (0.3) 4.8 (17.6) DAX (Germany) 6, (9.0) Dow Jones (USA) 12, FTSE 100 (UK) 5,723.0 (0.5) 2.7 (3.3) IBOV (Brazil) 62, (10.0) NASDAQ (USA) 2, RTSI (Russia) 1, (17.4) S&P 500 (USA) 1, ADRS & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % TLK US (IDR) 6,936 (1.4) 1.5 (9.2) IIT US (IDR) 5,530 (0.7) (1.4) 10.2 Coal (USD/t) (9.1) Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) 4, (1.9) Copper (USD/t) 8, (9.6) Cotton 3M FU (USD/t) 2,137 (1.3) 5.6 (40.1) CPO (USD/mtn-CIF) 1,055 (0.9) 1.4 (16.6) Gold (USD/oz.) 1, Iron ore (USD/mtn) (24.6) Milk (USD/t) (4.9) 4.3 Nickel (USD/t) 20, (19.3) Oil (USD/barrel) Pulp (USD/t)* (0.1) (12.3) Rice (IDR/kg) 8, Rubber (USD/t) 3, (29.9) Soybean (USD/t) 1, (1.3) (9.3) Steel (USD/t) (11.4) Sugar (USD/t) (14.1) 41.9 Tins (USD/t) 22, (20.8) Wheat (USD/t) (1.9) (31.5) CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/USD (3.8) (6.2) USD/EUR (1.1) 3.9 IDR/USD 8,890 9,005 (2.0) (1.8) JPY/USD SGD/USD THB/USD (0.3) (1.6) JIBOR (%) (0.5) (1.9) BI rate (%) (0.5) TD 1 mth (%) (0.2) (0.4) CDS (bps) Source: Bloomberg *Based on weekly price on Tuesday Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report

2 ECONOMICS IMF & World Bank: Capital inflows to emerging markets to decline On the back of continued global uncertainties, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects lower capital inflows to emerging markets ahead. This follows the World Bank s view which has warned that 2012 foreign direct investment to Asia Pacific s emerging economies might fall to USD235b, lower than 2011 s level of USD244b. (International Monetary Fund, Indonesia Finance Today) INDUSTRY LPS to differentiate guaranteed insurance premium fee based on banks risks The Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation s (LPS) Chief Executive, Firdaus Djaelani, stated that LPS plans to differentiate insurance premium fee for each bank based on their risk exposure. Currently, LPS has set insurance premium fee of 0.2% from total guaranteed deposits for all banks. LPS expects the new regulation to be implemented in the next 2-3 years. LPS total premium fee income from banks in 2011 reached IDR5t. (Indonesia Finance Today, detik.com) Mitsubishi to build new plant; Mazda eyes 33% sales increase Mitsubishi has started construction of a new USD27.7m plant which will have installed capacity of 1k units a month. Separately, Mazda Motor Indonesia expects 2012 sales to reach 12k units, up 33% y-y. Bahana: This is another positive view from an international car manufacturer on Indonesia s growing automotive demand, which is in line with our positive view of 12% y-y growth in 2012 car sales. (Jakarta Post) Deposits above IDR5b continue to rise in 2011 Although not guaranteed by the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS), deposits with nominal values above IDR5b continue to rise in As per December 2011, total deposit with nominal value above IDR5b reached IDR1,159t, up 24.4% y-y or 4.65% m-m. Meanwhile, total third-party funding as per December 2011 reached IDR2,830t, up 19.4% y-y and 5.4% m-m. From the total third party funding, LPS total guaranteed deposit reached IDR1,667t as per December 2011, up 5.8% m-m. (detik.com) CORPORATE EXCL aims 6%-8% growth in 2012 Hasnul Suhaimi, XL Axiata CEO (EXCL-BUY-IDR4,975-TP:IDR5,600), stated that last year s revenue growth of around 6%-8% will remain the same for Bahana: From this guidance, 2011 top line should range between IDR18.5t-19.0t with 2012 top line of around IDR20.1t-20.5t. This is in line with our top line estimate of IDR19.0t for 2011 and IDR20.4t in (Investor Daily) ANTM books 20% revenue growth in 2011 Aneka Tambang (ANTM-HOLD-IDR1,730-TP:IDR1,750) projects 2011 revenue of USD1.1b, up 20% y-y, on higher selling volumes and prices. ANTM booked 2011 ferronickel sales volumes of 19k tons, up 6% y-y, and 2011 gold of 8 tons, up 16% y-y. The company is also building a new USD1.6b-ferronickel smelter in East Indonesia with 27k tons of installed capacity to comply with ore export ban in Bahana: This is in line with our 2011 revenue forecast of IDR10t, up 20% y-y. While we like gold, ANTM has minimal exposure; on other metals, we do not have a positive view due to poor global economic outlook. Retain HOLD on ANTM with hardly any share price upside potential to our target price. (Jakarta Globe) Government asks ADHI to cancel rights issue plan The government through the ministry of state-owned enterprises has asked Adhi Karya (ADHI-BUY-IDR690- TP:IDR780) to cancel its IDR800b rights issue plan on concerns that the government s stake would be diluted. Based on previous news, the government is expected to inject 1.5ha land in CBD (Sudirman, South Jakarta) or inject cash into ADHI through rights issue. ADHI will use the rights issue proceeds for the development of three business units consisting of EPC, power plant and property. Without the rights issue, 2012 capex will decrease to IDR110b from IDR220b previously. Bahana: We have not included the rights issue plan in our model. However, the cancelation of the rights issue plan would hamper ADHI s expansion plan ahead. Currently, we have assumed IDR64b in capex for 2012 (Investor Daily) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2

3 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate to IPO in April 2012 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate, an industrial estate company, plans to raise IDR300b by releasing 20% of its shares to the public in April Ciptadana Securities, appointed as the lead underwriter, stated that the funds raised will be used to finance land acquisition to develop its industrial estate. (detik.com) Bank Mutiara s shares to be offered in February-March 2012 The sales of Bank Mutiara s shares will be offered again in February-March The Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS), the majority owner of Bank Mutiara (99.9%), stated that the sales are also open to foreign investors with plans to hold roadshows abroad. (Kompas) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) TARGET Up/(Downside) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING PRICE Potential (%) 1/25/2012 1/24/2012 CHANGE (%) Wijaya Karya WIKA BUY Total Bangun Persada TOTL BUY Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS BUY Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR BUY 14, ,400 11, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP BUY Adhi Karya ADHI BUY AKR Corporindo AKRA HOLD 3,150 (8.7) 3,450 3, Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP HOLD 1, ,240 1, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI BUY 4, ,450 3, Indocement INTP HOLD 20, ,850 17, Harum Energy HRUM BUY 10, ,300 7, Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada CMNP BUY 2, ,660 1, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA BUY Adaro Energy ADRO BUY 2, ,840 1, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF BUY 6, ,875 4, Lippo Cikarang LPCK BUY 2, ,950 1, Semen Gresik SMGR BUY 13, ,650 11, Indomobil Sukses International IMAS BUY 15, ,900 14, Bayan Resources BYAN REDUCE 10,450 (41.9) 18,000 17, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI BUY Bank Bukopin BBKP BUY Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI BUY 5, ,700 3, Bakrie Sumatra Plantations UNSP REDUCE 255 (15.0) Gajah Tunggal GJTL BUY 3, ,950 2, Gozco Plantations GZCO HOLD Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP BUY 7, ,050 5, Indosat ISAT REDUCE 4,500 (18.2) 5,500 5, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA * * * 4,000 4, Lippo Karawaci LPKR BUY Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL HOLD Wintermar Offshore WINS BUY XL Axiata EXCL BUY 5, ,975 4, Timah TINS HOLD 1, ,770 1,780 (0.6) Jasa Marga JSMR BUY 5, ,200 4,225 (0.6) Bank Central Asia BBCA BUY 9, ,050 8,100 (0.6) Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI BUY 8, ,950 7,000 (0.7) Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM * * * 6,900 6,950 (0.7) IDX IDX 3,964 3,995 (0.8) Sampoerna Agro SGRO BUY 3, ,125 3,150 (0.8) Summarecon Agung SMRA BUY 1, ,240 1,250 (0.8) BW Plantation BWPT BUY 1, ,220 1,230 (0.8) Astra International ASII BUY 88, ,000 78,650 (0.8) Medco Energy MEDC BUY 3, ,475 2,500 (1.0) Borneo Lumbung Energi BORN HOLD (1.1) Bukit Asam PTBA BUY 21, ,700 19,950 (1.3) Bakrieland Development ELTY HOLD 110 (22.0) (1.4) United Tractors UNTR BUY 30, ,100 28,500 (1.4) Bank Mandiri BMRI BUY 8, ,950 7,050 (1.4) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS BUY 3, ,400 3,450 (1.4) Bank Danamon BDMN BUY 5, ,575 4,650 (1.6) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN BUY 1, ,220 1,240 (1.6) Ciputra Property CTRP BUY (1.7) Aneka Tambang ANTM HOLD 1, ,730 1,760 (1.7) Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI HOLD 6, ,700 5,800 (1.7) Ciputra Development CTRA BUY (1.8) Bank Jabar Banten BJBR BUY 1, ,040 1,060 (1.9) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE BUY 1, ,010 1,030 (1.9) Indika Energy INDY BUY 3, ,475 2,525 (2.0) Bakrie Telekomunikasi BTEL REDUCE 50 (79.6) (2.0) Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN BUY 3, ,425 2,475 (2.0) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP BUY 2, ,425 2,475 (2.0) Kalbe Farma KLBF HOLD 3, ,575 3,650 (2.1) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG BUY 49, ,100 38,950 (2.2) Astra Agro Lestari AALI HOLD 20,750 (2.1) 21,200 21,700 (2.3) Vale Indonesia INCO HOLD 4, ,600 3,700 (2.7) Delta Dunia Makmur DOID BUY 1, (2.8) Bumi Resources BUMI BUY 2,375 (3.1) 2,450 2,525 (3.0) Agung Podomoro Land APLN HOLD (3.1) Unilever Indonesia UNVR HOLD 18,250 (11.4) 20,600 21,300 (3.3) Source: Bloomberg *In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 JCI Code Rating Price TP # of shares Free float Mkt cap* 3M avg to* EPS growth PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Revenue (IDRb)* Opt. profit (IDRb)* Net profit (IDRb)* EPS growth (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) ,147 1, AIRPORT SERVICE N nc nc CASS BUY ,147 1, , nc nc AUTO & EQUIP. OW 457, , ,909 33,121 38,976 29,976 35, ASII BUY 78,000 88,000 4, , , ,806 20,774 24,090 20,252 23, UNTR BUY 28,100 30,000 3, , ,039 71,882 8,861 10,578 6,842 8, nc nc IMAS BUY 14,900 15,000 1, , ,063 28,967 1,058 1,427 1,379 1, DOID BUY 700 1,000 8, , ,169 9, , (170.2) na na GJTL BUY 2,950 3,650 3, , ,881 13,775 1,517 1,747 1,138 1,335 (6.7) nc BANKING OW 670, , ,154 72,239 83,346 57,038 66, na na na na BBCA BUY 8,050 9,800 24, , ,914 33,926 15,112 17,346 12,358 14, na na na na BBKP BUY , , ,199 3,590 1,075 1, na na na na BBNI BUY 3,700 5,300 18, , ,269 25,469 8,256 9,635 6,651 7, na na na na BBRI BUY 6,950 8,800 24, , ,555 54,053 20,195 23,142 16,481 19, na na na na BBTN BUY 1,220 1,500 8, , ,296 6,110 1,599 1,853 1,206 1, na na na na BDMN BUY 4,575 5,350 9, , ,416 21,443 6,186 7,193 3,992 4, na na na na BJBR BUY 1,040 1,200 9, , ,156 4,803 1,646 1,880 1,285 1, na na na na BMRI BUY 6,950 8,800 23, , ,876 49,761 18,171 21,073 14,198 16, na na na na CEMENT OW 134, ,007 38,515 10,830 12,679 8,581 10, nc nc INTP HOLD 17,850 20,000 3, , ,444 17,268 5,241 5,992 4,079 4, nc nc SMGR BUY 11,650 13,600 5, , ,563 21,247 5,589 6,687 4,502 5, nc nc CONSTRUC. OW 21, ,817 38,435 3,503 4,293 1,638 2, WIKA BUY , , ,669 11, , nc nc ADHI BUY , , ,946 13, , PTPP BUY , , ,287 8, TOTL BUY , , ,922 2, nc nc TOWR BUY 11,400 14,600 1, , ,993 2,297 1,041 1, CONSUMER OW 395, , ,922 28,696 32,137 19,123 21, UNVR HOLD 20,600 18,250 7, , ,339 30,688 6,179 7,238 4,636 5, GGRM BUY 57,500 71,000 1, , ,327 51,881 7,643 8,580 5,704 6, nc INDF BUY 4,875 6,000 8, , ,716 53,101 8,043 8,504 3,714 4, nc nc KLBF HOLD 3,575 3,700 10, , ,875 15,994 2,368 2,702 1,780 2, nc nc ICBP BUY 5,050 7,200 5, , ,636 23,818 3,070 3,416 2,251 2, nc nc MAPI HOLD 5,700 6,500 1, , ,211 8, RALS BUY , , ,335 8, nc nc ROTI BUY 3,450 4,800 1, , ,026 1, nc MINING N 367, , ,594 56,792 63,028 36,198 34, ADRO BUY 1,840 2,300 31, , ,494 46,405 12,116 14,504 5,884 7, ANTM HOLD 1,730 1,750 9, , ,590 10,953 2,287 2,421 1,917 1, (2.5) nc nc BYAN REDUCE 18,000 10,450 3, , ,549 15,669 4,276 4,290 2,891 2, nc nc BUMI BUY 2,450 2,375 20, , ,050 42,321 13,538 13,773 6,009 5, (0.7) INCO HOLD 3,600 4,000 9, , ,645 12,183 4,607 5,592 3,411 4,209 (10.3) (7.9) nc nc INDY BUY 2,475 3,200 5, , ,182 6, ,602 1, ITMG BUY 38,100 49,900 1, , ,940 24,672 6,978 7,537 4, nc nc HRUM BUY 7,300 10,950 2, , ,952 10,444 3,302 3,826 2,257 2, nc nc PTBA BUY 19,700 21,650 2, , ,953 12,822 4,914 5,047 4,044 4, nc nc TINS HOLD 1,770 1,800 5, , ,045 8,658 1,267 1, , (10.7) nc nc BORN HOLD , , ,021 10,518 3,207 4,321 2,506 3, OIL & GAS N 103, ,857 54,466 9,571 11,120 7,342 8, AKRA HOLD 3,450 3,150 3, , ,482 28, , nc nc PGAS BUY 3,400 3,800 24, , ,412 24,934 8,454 9,656 6,552 7,538 (2.7) nc nc MEDC BUY 2,475 3,200 3, , , (54.4) PLANTATIONS N 85, ,649 43,666 11,479 12,892 7,537 8, (1.0) AALI HOLD 21,200 20,750 1, , ,213 12,216 3,496 3,849 2,504 2, nc nc BWPT BUY 1,220 1,450 4, , ,007 1, GZCO HOLD , , LSIP BUY 2,425 2,750 6, , ,659 4,910 1,980 2,137 1,704 1, (0.9) nc nc SGRO BUY 3,125 3,700 1, , ,255 3, nc nc UNSP REDUCE , , ,767 6,816 1,193 1, (21.7) (31.9) SIMP HOLD 1,240 1,300 15, , ,158 14,202 3,242 3,639 1,672 1, (6.9) POULTRY OW 48, ,459 44,889 5,942 6,789 4,514 5, CPIN BUY 2,425 3,000 16, , ,020 23,994 4,180 4,840 3,466 4, nc nc JPFA * 4,000 * 2, , ,439 20,895 1,762 1,949 1,049 1,196 (24.6) PROPERTY OW 74, ,339 29,812 6,942 8,267 4,680 5, APLN BUY , , ,330 5,142 1,164 1, ASRI BUY , , ,906 1, nc CTRA BUY , , ,875 3, nc CTRP BUY , , nc BSDE BUY 1,010 1,270 17, , ,171 3,896 1,057 1, , nc nc ELTY HOLD , ,003 2, (47.7) (13.7) LPKR BUY , , ,792 5,325 1,139 1, SMRA BUY 1,240 1,570 6, , ,604 3, KIJA BUY , , ,969 2, LPCK BUY 1,950 2, , ,091 1, SHIPPING N 1, ,009 1, WINS BUY , , ,009 1, TELCOS N 218, , ,115 31,589 35,016 16,259 18,513 (193.2) BTEL REDUCE , , ,838 2,992 (249) (160) (700) (679) (6,468.8) 10.2 (3.0) (10.0) (10.3) (17.6) (20.7) EXCL BUY 4,975 5,600 8, , ,366 21,774 4,948 5,761 3,201 4, ISAT REDUCE 5,500 4,500 5, , ,087 23,137 3,301 3,472 1,873 2, (9.4) TLKM * 6,900 * 20, , ,367 83,213 23,589 25,944 11,885 13,163 (3.2) TINPLATE N ,686 1, (76.0) nc nc NIKL HOLD , ,686 1, (76.0) nc nc TOLL ROAD N 31, ,660 7,565 3,341 3,923 2,171 2, CMNP BUY 1,660 2,000 2, , , nc nc JSMR BUY 4,200 5,000 6, , ,694 6,488 2,790 3,309 1,772 2, Market OW 2,611,631 2,323 1,160,823 1,315, , , , , Note: *Total, **In regard to the engagement letter from the companies, PT. Bahana Securities will not produce the companies ratings and target prices during the engagement period to ensure the opinions given are fair and reasonable. OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, UR: Under Review *** Theoretical ex-rights price based on current price ++ Post-rights PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Global Business and Economic Indicators Agenda Date Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior 01/25/ :50 JN Merchnds Trade Exports YoY DEC /25/ :50 JN Merchnds Trade Imports YoY DEC /25/ :30 AU Consumer Prices (YoY) 4Q 3.30% 3.10% 3.50% 01/25/ :00 PH Trade Balance NOV - - -$1643M -$932M 01/25/ :00 US 2012 State of the Union Address 01/25/ :30 TH Benchmark Interest Rate 25-Jan 3.00% % 01/25/ :00 GE IFO - Business Climate JAN /25/ :00 GE IFO - Current Assessment JAN /25/ :00 GE IFO - Expectations JAN /25/ :00 IT Retail Sales (YoY) NOV -1.50% % 01/25/ :30 UK Bank of England Minutes 01/25/ :30 UK GDP (YoY) 4Q A 0.80% % 01/25/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Jan % 01/25/ :00 US House Price Index MoM NOV 0.00% % 01/25/ :00 US Pending Home Sales YoY DEC % Global Economic Forecasts and Calendar Indicator Period Release Previous Consensus Actual Indonesia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (USDb) Aug 10/ FX reserves (USDb) Aug 9/ China CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep Trade balance (USDb) Aug 9/ Unemployment rate (%) Jun Japan CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (JPYb) Aug 9/ Unemployment rate (%) Aug 9/ India CPI inflation (%, y-y) Jul 8/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Singapore CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep Trade balance (SGDb) Aug Unemployment rate (%) 2Q 8/ Malaysia CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (MYRb) Jul 9/ Unemployment rate (%) 2Q 8/ Thailand CPI inflation (%, y-y) Sep 10/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference rate (%) Jul 8/ Trade balance (USDb) Aug 9/ Unemployment rate (%) Dec 1/ US CPI inflation (%, y-y) Aug 9/ GDP (%, y-y) 2Q 8/ Reference Rate (%) Sep 9/ Trade balance (USDb) Jul 8/ Unemployment rate (%) Aug 9/ Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Corporate Date Time EGM Sugih Energy 1/26/ :00 EGM Bank Cimb Niaga 1/26/ :30 EGM Bank Kesawan 1/27/ :00 EGM Sona Topas Tourism 1/27/ :00 EGM Elang Mahkota Teknologi 1/27/ :00 EGM Jasa Marga 1/30/ :00 EGM Bhuwanatala Indah Permai 1/31/ :00 Source: Bloomberg DIVIDEND SCHEDULE Corporate Price Cash Yield Ex Record Payment Ticker (IDR) (IDR) (%) date date date Source: Bloomberg *Interim Dividend COMPANY/SITE VISITS/EVENTS Date Time Description Analyst Friday, 27 January :00 EXCL conference call Stifanus Sulistyo Monday, 30 January :00 INCO company visiy Leonardo Henry Gavaza Tuesday, 31 January :00 EXCL company visit Stifanus Sulistyo PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Actual and upcoming IPOs, No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRb) (%) 1 EMDE 1/12/11 Megapolitan Development Property MBTO 1/13/11 Martina Berto Cosmetics GIAA 2/11/11 Garuda Indonesia Aviation 4, Q11 total 5,227 4 MBSS 4/6/11 Mitra Bahtera Segara Sejati Coal shipping SRAJ 4/11/11 Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Hospital management HDFA 5/11/11 HD Finance Motorcycle financing BULL 5/23/11 Buana Listya Tama Shipping 1, JAWA 5/30/11 Jaya Agra Wattie Plantation SIMP 6/9/11 Salim Ivomas Agribusiness 3, MTLA 6/20/11 Metropolitan Land Property Q11 total 5, TIFA 7/8/11 Tifa Finance Finance SDMU 7/12/11 Sidomulyo Selaras Transportation PTIS 7/12/11 Indo Straits Shipping ALDO 7/12/11 Alkindo Naratama Paper processing STAR 7/13/11 Star Petrochem Plastic Manufacture SMRU 10/10/11 SMR Utama Mining SUPR 10/11/11 Solusi Tunas Pratama Telecommunication ARII 11/8/11 Atlas Resources Mining GEMS 11/17/11 Golden Energy Mining 2, VIVA 11/21/11 Visi Media Asia Media 4, CASS 12/05/11 Cardig Aero Service Aviation service ABMM 12/06/11 ABM Investama Coal mining 2, ERAA 12/14/11 Erajaya Swasembada Cellular distribution 3, GWSA 12/23/11 Greenwood Sejahtera Property BAJA 12/21/11 Sarana Central Bajatama Steel total 14, PADI 1/9/12 Minna Padi Investama Financial market TELE 1/12/12 Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Cellular distribution Semen Baturaja Cement 1, Pegadaian Financial Pertamina Drilling Service Oil & gas services Geothermal Energy Energy Garuda Maintenance Facility Aviation service Air Asia Indonesia Aviation 1, Bumi Kencana Eka Sakti Coal mining 1, Cipaganti group Transportation Aditech Cakrawiyasa Household goods Tugu Pratama Insurance MNC Sky Vision Media 2, Riau Baraharum Coal mining 5, Waskita Karya Construction Bahtera Niaga Internasional Shipping Telesindo Shop Telecommunication PLN Enjiniring Electricity Prima Jaya Kreasi Entertainment Asuransi Mitra Maparya Insurance Newmont Nusa Tenggara Mining 8, Bank Jatim Banks 1, Lion Air Aviation 9, Bank Sulut Banks Bank Mitraniaga Banks Hutama Karya Construction Toba Bara Sejahtera Mining 3, Angkasa Pura I Airport services GarudaFood Food & beverage Intan Baruprana Heavy equipment financing Mitratel Telecommunication Daya Mandiri Resources Indo Krakatau Wajatama Steel Bank Sumut Banks Eka Sari Lorena Transort Transportation total 39,028 Grand total 64,703 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8

9 Actual and upcoming rights issues, No Code Ex-rights date Company name Industry Amount (IDRb) 1 BMRI 1/26/11 Bank Mandiri Banks 11,684 2 AMRT 1/24/11 Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Retail 1,039 3 BBKP 1/20/11 Bank Bukopin Banks 1,066 4 PBRX 1/24/11 Pan Brothers Textile EPMT 2/1/11 Enseval Putra Megatrading Pharmacy distribution 300 1Q11 total 14,522 6 ABDA 4/28/11 Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Insurance INDS 5/16/11 Indospring Automotive components UNTR 6/3/11 United Tractors Heavy equipment 6,100 9 DOID 6/27/11 Delta Dunia Makmur Mining contracting 1, BVIC 6/27/11 Bank Victoria Banks 199 2Q11 total 7, IMAS 7/1/11 Indomobil Sukses Internasional Automotive 2, KREN 7/8/11 Kresna Graha Securindo Financial APIC 7/5/11 Pasific Strategic Financial Financial LPPS 7/6/11 Lippo Securities Finance BDMN 9/28/11 Bank Danamon Banks 4, AISA 10/2/11 Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Consumer AMAG 10/4/11 Asuransi Multi Artha Guna Insurance KIJA 10/14/11 Kawasan Industri Jababeka Construction 1, BEKS 10/21/11 Bank Pundi Indonesia Banks CFIN 10/24/11 Clipan Finance Financing PNLF 11/3/11 Panin Financial Financial 499 w22 DKFT 12/2/11 Central Omega Resources Mining PWON 12/9/11 Pakuwon Jati Property 1, PSAB 12/23/11 Pelita Sejahtera Abadi Trading 1, MDLN 12/23/11 Moderland Realty Property MASA 12/28/11 Multistrada Arah Sarana Automotive components 1,500 2H11 total 18, FREN Smartfren Telecom Telecommunication 1, MITI Mitra Investindo Granite RAJA Rukun Raharja Property OKAS Ancora Indonesia Mining TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical 3, INTA Intraco Penta Heavy equipment 4, IGAR Champion pacific Indonesia Basic industry SMMA Sinar Mas Multi Artha Financial 1, CMNP Citra Marga Nushapala Toll road BKSL Sentul City Property BABP ICB Bumiputera Banks total 12,470 Grand total 53,117 Source: Various media PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9

10 3Q11 Results Round ups Operating Net No Company Code profit (IDRb) profit (IDRb) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) Actual Bahana (%) Cons. (%) 1 Astra Agro Lestari AALI 2,524 3, , ,860 2, , Adhi karya ADHI Adaro Energy* ADRO 911 1, , AKR Corporindo AKRA Aneka Tambang ANTM 1,933 2, , ,558 1, , Astra International ASII 13,310 17, , ,441 17, , Alam Sutera Realty ASRI Bank Central Asia BBCA 9,407 12, , ,653 10, , Bank Bukopin BBKP Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,411 7, , ,059 5, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 12,591 17, , ,431 13, , Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN 958 1, , , , Bank Danamon BDMN 3,852 5, , ,449 3, , Bank Jabar Banten BJBR 1,028 1, , , , Bank Mandiri BMRI 12,301 15, , ,173 11, , Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE , Bumi Resources* BUMI 840 1, , BW Plantation BWPT Bayan Resources BYAN 2,128 4, , ,336 2, , Citra Marga Nushapala CMNP Ciputra Development CTRA Ciputra Property CTRP Delta Dunia Makmur DOID (12) 135 na 320 na 24 Bakrieland Development ELTY Xl Axiata EXCL 3,440 5, , ,184 3, , Gozco Plantations GZCO Harum Energy HRUM 1,646 2, , ,081 1, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 2,022 2, , ,528 2, , Indo Tambangraya Megah* ITMG International Nickel* INCO Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 5,213 7, , ,324 3, , Indika Energy INDY 36 (66) na , , Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 3,196 4, , ,586 3, , Indosat ISAT 2,307 3, , , , Jasa Marga JSMR 3,595 4, , ,049 1, , Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,404 2, , ,065 1, , Lippo Karawaci LPKR PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,533 1, , ,312 1, , Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Medco Energy* MEDC Pelat Timah Nusantara NIKL Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 6,068 8, , ,506 6, , Bukit Asam PTBA 2,862 4, , ,323 3, , Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS Sampoerna Agro SGRO Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 2,470 3, , ,280 1, , Semen Gresik SMGR 3,402 4, , ,761 4, , Summarecon Agung SMRA Timah TINS 1,183 1, , , , Total Bangun Persada TOTL Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 16,321 24, , ,385 12, , United Tractors UNTR 5,507 7, , ,349 5, , Unilever Indonesia UNVR 4,051 5, , ,025 3, , Wijaya Karya WIKA Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS Source: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana estimates *In USDm PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10

11 Results relative to Bahana estimates and consensus Operating profit Net profit Above In line Below Above In line Below Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. AALI AALI AALI AALI ADHI ADHI ADHI ADHI ADRO ADRO ADRO ADRO AKRA AKRA AKRA AKRA ANTM ANTM ANTM ANTM ASII ASII ASII ASII ASRI ASRI ASRI ASRI BBCA BBCA BBCA BBCA BBKP BBKP BBKP BBKP BBNI BBNI BBNI BBNI BBRI BBRI BBRI BBRI BBTN BBTN BBTN BBTN BDMN BDMN BDMN BDMN BJBR BJBR BJBR BJBR BMRI BMRI BMRI BMRI BSDE BSDE BSDE BSDE BUMI BUMI BUMI BUMI BWPT BWPT BWPT BWPT BYAN BYAN BYAN BYAN CMNP CMNP CMNP CMNP CTRA CTRA CTRA CTRA CTRP CTRP CTRP CTRP DOID DOID DOID DOID ELTY ELTY ELTY ELTY EXCL EXCL EXCL EXCL GZCO GZCO GZCO GZCO HRUM HRUM HRUM HRUM ICBP ICBP ICBP ICBP INCO INCO INCO INCO INDF INDF INDF INDF INDY INDY INDY INDY INTP INTP INTP INTP ITMG ITMG ITMG ITMG ISAT ISAT ISAT ISAT JSMR JSMR JSMR JSMR KLBF KLBF KLBF KLBF LPKR LPKR LPKR LPKR LSIP LSIP LSIP LSIP MAPI MAPI MAPI MAPI MEDC MEDC MEDC MEDC NIKL NIKL NIKL NIKL PGAS PGAS PGAS PGAS PTBA PTBA PTBA PTBA RALS RALS RALS RALS SGRO SGRO SGRO SGRO SIMP SIMP SIMP SIMP SMGR SMGR SMGR SMGR SMRA SMRA SMRA SMRA TINS TINS TINS TINS TOTL TOTL TOTL TOTL TLKM TLKM TLKM TLKM UNTR UNTR UNTR UNTR UNVR UNVR UNVR UNVR WIKA WIKA WIKA WIKA WINS WINS WINS WINS Source: Company, Bahana, Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11

12 Research: Harry Su Head of Research Strategy, Telcos, Consumer, Aviation ext 3600 direct: Teguh Hartanto Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement ext 3610 Arga Samudro Economist ext 3602 Natalia Sutanto Research Analyst Property, Construction, Toll Road ext 3601 Leonardo Henry Gavaza Research Analyst Automotive, Plantations, Metal Mining, Heavy Equipment ext 3608 Frederick Daniel Tanggela Research Analyst Coal Mining, Poultry ext 3603 Chandra Widjanarka Technical Analyst ext 3609 Stifanus Sulistyo Automotive. Consumer, Telcos, Shipping, Steel Research Analyst ext 3607 Giovanni Aristo Research Associate ext 3604 Salman Fajari Alamsyah Research Associate ext 3605 Aditya Eka Prakasa Research Associate ext 3611 Isna Alfiathi Research Executive ext 3607 Dealing Room: Haselinda Rifman Equity Sales ext 2524 Suwardi Widjaja Equity Sales ext 2548 Tjokro Wongso Equity Sales ext 2547 John M. Dasaad Equity Sales ext 2549 Ashish Agrawal Equity Sales ext 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Bahana Securities or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.

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