Daily Focus. Indonesia. December 9, 2014 (X) JAKMINE INDEX

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Indonesia Daily Focus Renaldy Effendy +62-21-515-1141 renaldy.effendy@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.

1 Indonesia Daily Focus Renaldy Effendy For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 5, MSCI EM HANG SENG 24, KOSPI 1, FTSE 6, DJIA 17, NASDAQ 4, Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 12, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel 16, Copper 6, Tin 20, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 4,500 1,000 3, /13 02/14 11/14 Winds of change The coal industry has been undergoing a de-rating for the past 7 years. Since the peak in 2007 with a trailing P/B of 6.7x, the mining index is trading at 1.8x representing a 73.6% decline from the peak. Coal related company such as United Tractors (UNTR, a mining and construction services company) has also experience a squeeze in its valuations. According to Bloomberg, UNTR s shares are trading at 1.8x trailing P/B, which represents 66.5% squeeze vs. its peak in 2007 (5.4x P/B). Obviously, investors are factoring in a challenging outlook on the company. In our view, UNTR s management team fully understands the challenging headwinds the company is facing. At the same time, we believe they are ready to strategically diversifying its business line up. According to the management, despite stable financial status of the company, declining coal prices have placed negative implications on its heavy equipment (HE) sales. Given majority of its business is related to the mining industry, we believe UNTR s revenue will continue to experience contraction. Indeed, its Komatsu sales declined 13% YoY. However, we also highlight that its HE market share remains stable at 40%. Given its revenue dependency is highly concentrated towards the mining industry; the company s management team is revisiting its business strategy. According to multiple press reports, UNTR will expand into the construction business by acquiring 50.1% stake in Acset Indonesia. Although the details on the schedule have not been clarified yet, we expect the acquisition to take place early next year. Management stated that the company will boost heavy equipment sales to builders and expected to see revenue contribution to be around 30~ 35%. Given the new administration s focus on developing infrastructure projects, we expect the strategic adjustment to contribute higher revenue going forward. P/B valuation (X) UNTR Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia JAKMINE INDEX

2 Local flashes TINS: Timah obtain IDR702billion loan from Mandiri. PT Timah Tbk (TINS) get an additional loan facility from Bank Mandiri worth USD52million or equivalent to IDR702billion (exchange rate IDR11,350). The loan facility will used for working capital and non-cash loan facility, which will be used in order to strengthen company s working capital and its subsidiaries in mining business, production, and trade of tin in Indonesia. Besides loans, Bank Mandiri will also support financial management PT Timah through Mandiri Cash Management (MCM). (Sindonews) KAEF: Kimia Farma looking for BUMN partners to build hospital. PT Kimia Farma Tbk. is looking for a strategic partner from state-owned company to build a hospital worth IDR300billion. Director of Kimia Farma Rusdi Rosman said the company is already sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with some construction companies such as PT Wijaya Karya Tbk. and PT Adhi Karya Tbk. for the project. However, there has been no follow-up from the memorandum of understanding. (Bisnis Indonesia) APLN: Agung Podomoro Ready to Add "Capex" to IDR6trillion. PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) ready to add capex (capital expenditure) to IDR6trillion in 2015, up 20 percent compared to this year's allocation of IDR5trillion. Capex will be used to develop a new property project. Vice President of APLN Indra Wijaya said the project will be built next year includes the development of SOHO Pancoran and SOHO Pluit. In addition, company also hopes to begin to develop a mega project of reclamation Pluit City. (Berita Satu) BTPN: BTPN still waiting for OJK signal to buy insurance. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) is reported to be buying an insurance company in However, BTPN still waiting for a signal from Financial Services Authority (OJK) to determine when the acquisition will be conducted. Previously, the company is reported to buy an insurance company in the next year. The acquisition is conducted so that the company can work on potential market share that has not been touched. (Kontan) MYOR: Debt Increases, Outlook Mayora Downgraded to Negative. PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) revised the outlook for ratings of PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR) becomes negative. Previously, company s rating outlook is stable. Negative outlook given in anticipation of weaker capital ratios and cash flow protection that projected as a result of weakening profitability margins coupled with greater than projected debt. (Okezone) GIAA: Besides in Bandara Soetta, Garuda Open New Aircraft Repair Shop in Bintan. A subsidiary of PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk (GIAA), GMF AeroAsia will open branches of aircraft maintenance workshop or maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services in Bintan Aerospace Industry Park, Kepulauan Riau. This location is a new aircraft repair shop outside the area of Soekarno-Hatta (Soetta), Tangerang, Banten, GMF collaborate with subsidiary of Gallant Venture Ltd, Bintan Aviation Investment (BAI). (Detik Finance) CFIN: Clipan Finance to issue MTN IDR1trillion. PT Clipan Finance Indonesia Tbk is reviewing the plan to issue medium-term note as a source of funding to finance the company in The number of MTN will be issued next year is estimated at IDR1trillion. Clipan Finance Operations Director John Anwar said that, until now, 50% of the company's sources of funding still comes from equity. While the second major source of funding in the third quarter of 2014 came from loan payables by 27%, followed by MTN as much as 13% and 10% bonds payables. (Investor Daily) 2

Technical analysis Recommendation Target price 5,131 Stop-loss 5, Close 5,144 Indicator GC = Golden-cross DC = Dead-cross UP = Up DN = Down NM = Normal Buy on Weakness Stoch DC MACD UP PSAR UP Volume

Daily Chart Although the JCI has broke the 5131 level of Fibonaci rectracement of 76.4% on yesterday intraday trading but it cannot touched MA20 support and closed above fibonaci rectracement level.

3 Technical analysis Recommendation Target price 5,131 Stop-loss 5, Close 5,144 Indicator GC = Golden-cross DC = Dead-cross UP = Up DN = Down NM = Normal Buy on Weakness Stoch DC MACD UP PSAR UP Volume UP AC = Accumulation Dis = Distribution OB = Overbought OS = Oversold Investor sentiment The rupiah depreciation has trigger profit taking as send stock to slump 0.85%. Daily Chart Although the JCI has broke the 5131 level of Fibonaci rectracement of 76.4% on yesterday intraday trading but it cannot touched MA20 support and closed above fibonaci rectracement level. MACD and Stochastic indicator still decline. We predict the selling pressure will continue on today trading with next support level of 5,131 and 5,. Intraday Chart On yesterday trading, the JCI was on the selling pressure all the day long but on the last session, the JCI rebound from its daily lowest. MACD indicator show the selling pressure was eased and stochastic gave bullish signal. We predict the market could continue to decline before rebound in intraday trading. Chart 1. Daily chart Chart 2. Intraday chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3

4 Chart 3. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) (IDR) 5,300 USD/IDR (R) 12,500 5,200 12,300 5, 12, 5,000 11,0 4,0 4,800 11,700 4,700 11,500 4,600 11,300 9/8 9/22 10/6 10/20 11/3 11/17 12/1 Chart 4. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Absolute D 1W 1M 1Y Relative Chart 5. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) (USDmn) Note: The latest figure for India is December, 5 TH 1 Day 5 Days Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India Chart 6. Energy price (USD/b) Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) /14 10/14 11/14 12/14 Chart 7. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 8. Precious metal price (D-3M=) Copper Nickel Tin Silver Gold Platinum 70 9/14 10/14 11/ /14 10/14 11/14 12/14 4

5 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name BANKING Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 Bank Central Asia Tbk PT BBCA 13, , Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk PT BMRI 10, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBRI 11, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk PT BBNI 5, , Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT BDMN 4,420 42, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk PT BTPN 4,165 23, PROPERTY Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT SSIA 1,055 5, Ciputra Property Tbk PT CTRP 870 5, N/A N/A Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT PWON , Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT ASRI , Bumi Serpong Damai PT BSDE 1,840 33, CONSTRUCTION Total Bangun Persada Tbk PT TOTL 1,065 3, Adhi Karya Persero Tbk PT ADHI 2,945 5, Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk PT WIKA 3,120 19, Pembangunan Perumahan Persero Tbk PT PTPP 3,140 15, Waskita Karya Persero Tbk PT WSKT 1,110 11, RETAIL & CONSUMER Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT INDF 6,625 58, Kalbe Farma Tbk PT KLBF 1,725 83, Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT MAPI 5,425 9, Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT UNVR 31, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT ICBP 11,600 69, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk PT RALS 745 5, Mayora Indah Tbk PT MYOR 23,400 20, Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk PT ACES , Gudang Garam Tbk PT GGRM 59, , Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk PT ROTI 1,320 6, AUTOMOTIVE Astra International Tbk PT ASII 7, 2, Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk PT IMAS 3, 8, Astra Otoparts Tbk PT AUTO 3,825 18, TELECOMMUNICATION Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk PT TLKM 2, , XL Axiata Tbk PT EXCL 4,8 42, Indosat Tbk PT ISAT 4,120 21, INFRASTRUCTURE Jasa Marga Persero Tbk PT JSMR 6,875 47, Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk PT TBIG 9,600 45, MINING Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT ANTM 960 9, N/A Timah Persero Tbk PT TINS 1,200 9, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Persero Tbk PTBA 13, 30, CEMENT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT INTP 25, 92, Holcim Indonesia Tbk PT SMCB 2,265 17, Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk PT SMGR 16,625 99, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 5

6 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 2, BMTR IJ , Mining 1, JSMR IJ , Basic-Industry ASII IJ 7 2, Miscellaneous Industry 1, PWON IJ , Consumer Goods 2, BMRI IJ , Property & Construction SMGR IJ , Infrastructure 1, ICBP IJ , Finance LPPF IJ , Trade KLBF IJ ,6 0.6 Composite 5, PTBA IJ 13 30, Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close EMTK IJ 7.5 7,200 UNVR IJ ,150 GIAA IJ BBNI IJ ,975 SIAP IJ BBRI IJ ,325 MYOR IJ ,400 TLKM IJ ,805 GGRM IJ ,875 KLBF IJ ,725 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 1:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 30.8% 2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 18.1B 18.5B 2:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -80.5B 2:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.5B -4.7B All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings 7:30am USD NFIB Small Business Index :00am USD JOLTS Job Openings 4.81M 4.74M 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism :00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.1% 0.3% 6:50pm JPY BSI Manufacturing Index :50pm JPY PPI y/y 2.7% 2.9% 8:30pm CNY CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6% 8:30pm CNY PPI y/y -2.3% -2.2% Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia

Daily Focus. Indonesia. February 23, Growing fuel consumption

Daily Focus. Indonesia. February 23, Growing fuel consumption Indonesia Daily Focus Mimi Halimin +62-21-515-1141 mimi.halimin@dwsec-id.com For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI